War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[Mistral]

19 minutes ago, mkenny said:

'Optimism'?   There was a huge pre-offensive  offensive in the media where western super-duper wunder-tanks were seen 'laughing' at the puny primitive dragons teeth that the backward shovel-wielding convicts were cowering behind. Said wunder-tanks were shown  practising crashing through the dragons teeth. YouTube was awash with western 'military experts' predicting that the western super-duper wunder-tanks would crush their puny Russian counterparts  with their massively super-guns and sights. Alas as soon as the Leopards sallied forth they were destroyed within sight of their start lines. They were simply stopped dead at the first Russian positions and the 'original plan' was not cancelled it simply could not make any headway. It was defeated. 

I am at a loss as to how anyone could try and play down the massive over-hyping of the Ukrainian   'sssshhhhh' attack and no amount of latter-day re-writing of history can erase the utter debacle that played out around Robotyne in June 2023.  Am I the only one who remembers the barrage of 'its the same tank filmed 10 times', 'its  only damaged' & 'the crew survived' cope that greeted anyone who dared post a Russian film of a smouldering western super-duper wunder-tank?

 

True, kind of reminded me of the Russians the last two years 😂

[Stefan Kotsch]

24 minutes ago, mkenny said:

western super-duper wunder-tanks

Two years of blitzkrieg by the post-Soviet super-duper army against Ukraine. What a great result. David and Goliath.

[Roman Alymov]

26 minutes ago, Mistral said:

True, kind of reminded me of the Russians the last two years 😂

No idea where you get this Russians from. as realistic pro-Russian commenters always believed this war to be long and bloody.

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Two years of blitzkrieg by the post-Soviet super-duper army against Ukraine. What a great result. David and Goliath.

Let me remind you pro-Ukrainians always were in numerical advantage over pro-Russians (up to 4:1 in 2022, now about 2:1). 

[Roman Alymov]

Video of pro-Ukr T-64 detonating with turrent flying away

https://t.me/anna_news/65995

P.S. Location https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5311?single

Edited April 30 by Roman Alymov

[Stefan Kotsch]

3 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Let me remind you pro-Ukrainians always were in numerical advantage over pro-Russians (up to 4:1 in 2022, now about 2:1)

Russia was only able to save itself in ultimate desperation because it had been firing back since five o clock fourty five.

[mkenny]

40 minutes ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Two years of blitzkrieg by the post-Soviet super-duper army against Ukraine. What a great result. David and Goliath.

It 'aint over until the fat Lady sings.

[Wouter2]

On 4/29/2024 at 6:34 PM, Josh said:

I always thought GLSDB was going to be of little use. Its flight profile is an unpowered glide from high altitude and its payload is all of 40lbs of HE. The slow approach is going to make it more vulnerable to shoot downs and keep it inside a GPS denied area longer, while the blast radius is small enough that effectiveness rapidly falls off with inaccuracy. There’s a reason the U.S. never bought it.

This is Tom Cooper's take on it: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-30-april-2024

 

Boeings problem, apparently.

[Roman Alymov]

Photos of M1 Abrams wreck recovered from Berdychi

video of how it was hit and destroyed

"Абрамс" едет в Москву - Colonel Cassad — ЖЖ (livejournal.com)

road wheels have melted or it is result of being dragged?

[mkenny]

22 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

No idea where you get this Russians from. as realistic pro-Russian commenters always believed this war to be long and bloody.

Its knee-jerk cope.

The difference between us is that I can provide the sources backing the super-duper western equipment/training/ wunder-tanks hype.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ex2cav]

11 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Photos of M1 Abrams wreck recovered from Berdychi

video of how it was hit and destroyed

"Абрамс" едет в Москву - Colonel Cassad — ЖЖ (livejournal.com)

road wheels have melted or it is result of being dragged?

That one hurts me looking at it. Any idea what weapon destroyed it?

[Roman Alymov]

25 minutes ago, ex2cav said:

That one hurts me looking at it. Any idea what weapon destroyed it?

Can't say now, probably will try to take a look in Moscow

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Wouter2 said:

This is Tom Cooper's take on it: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-30-april-2024

 

Boeings problem, apparently.

Ah, hadn’t heard that. Man, Boeing cannot do anything right now adays. I hope they do not get the NGAD contract.

[alejandro_]

2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Can't say now, probably will try to take a look in Moscow

Roman, if you got could you try to take some photos of the vehicles? T-72AMT and Azovets would be great, both exterior and interior. The same with T-64BV obr 2022. Thanks.  

[crazyinsane105]

5 hours ago, Wouter2 said:

This is Tom Cooper's take on it: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-30-april-2024

 

Boeings problem, apparently.

He’s coming off as super optimistic about Ukraine and downplaying Russia’s ECM capabilities. Hard to take this one seriously.

Russian GPS interference has been an issue with HIMARs and JDAMs, so much so where Ukrainians are reportedly not using as many HIMARs deep behind Russian lines due to likelihood of missing. Russian EW is very effective over Russian held territory though, and that makes sense. A

[seahawk]

Yes, the effectiveness of western weapons has been degraded to the point of uselessness. This knowledge is already shared with China and Iran. So the west jeopardized it's own security for meddling in the Russian Civil War - just as Glenn predicted.

[Wouter2]

6 hours ago, crazyinsane105 said:

He’s coming off as super optimistic about Ukraine and downplaying Russia’s ECM capabilities. Hard to take this one seriously.

Russian GPS interference has been an issue with HIMARs and JDAMs, so much so where Ukrainians are reportedly not using as many HIMARs deep behind Russian lines due to likelihood of missing. Russian EW is very effective over Russian held territory though, and that makes sense. A

Tom is Tom, but he has been super pessimistic lately about Ukraine, especially about the chronic lack of air defence, totally insufficient western help and the Russian UMPK revolution. Most people are probably in a rollercoaster of moods/emotions and I think Tom shows that on his blog. He may not always be right, but not taking him seriously at all is not correct either IMO.

But he has a good point. After all, Russian GPS interference hasn't made JDAM's, Hammers (AASM) and Himars/ATACMS useless, far from it. Those weapons don't rely on GPS alone, hell even entirely dumb weapons like Zunis and the Russian equivalents aren't useless. For that matter, UKR/Western GPS/Glonass "jamming" hasn't made the UMPK kits and assorted other Russian weapons useless either, and surely Russia does not have a world's monopoly on jamming GPS signals?

That the GLSDB has some unique issue, either the booster thing as Tom claims, or some other flaw (does it rely only on GPS over enemy territoryand nothing else at all?) that makes this weapon useless in present form (against a capable enemy) seems clear though. Normal JDAMs still work well enough.

Given the way Boeing has been going since the McDonnel takeover and the emphasis on maximum shortterm profits at the cost of engineering and safety, it's quite believable.

[bojan]

11 hours ago, alejandro_ said:

Roman, if you got could you try to take some photos of the vehicles? T-72AMT and Azovets would be great, both exterior and interior. The same with T-64BV obr 2022. Thanks.  

As far as I have heard interior pics are forbidden.

[glenn239]

16 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Photos of M1 Abrams wreck recovered from Berdychi

 

They don't seem concerned about depleted uranium ammunition?

[glenn239]

6 hours ago, seahawk said:

Yes, the effectiveness of western weapons has been degraded to the point of uselessness. This knowledge is already shared with China and Iran. So the west jeopardized it's own security for meddling in the Russian Civil War - just as Glenn predicted.

The USAF seems to be in a bit of a pickle, actually.  If their GPS weapons do not function properly going forward then they will have to switch to AI systems, but AI systems are best employed on missiles and drones, not F-35's, and the Sino-Russian capacity for drone and missile production dwarfs the American one.

As I've also said, you can't fix stupid, but you can elect it president.

[glenn239]

4 hours ago, Wouter2 said:

 

But he has a good point. After all, Russian GPS interference hasn't made JDAM's, Hammers (AASM) and Himars/ATACMS useless, far from it. Those weapons don't rely on GPS alone, hell even entirely dumb weapons like Zunis and the Russian equivalents aren't useless. For that matter, UKR/Western GPS/Glonass "jamming" hasn't made the UMPK kits and assorted other Russian weapons useless either, and surely Russia does not have a world's monopoly on jamming GPS signals?

The point is that prior to the war, the Russians were going down the wrong path on their military thinking.  The war has given them hard lessons, and they are now focused on expanding their capabilities and force structure in a way that is to the maximal disadvantage of NATO.   Even worse, these lessons are being transferred to Russia's allies in realtime, all of which whom are feverishly adapting as well.  None of this is to say that this is a one-sided race.  But 3 years ago, it wasn't much of a race at all, now everyone one of America's self-made enemies is running at breakneck speed, whereas before, they were casually walking.

 

[Soldier36]

Russian T-90M Proryv tanks were equipped with factory canopies to protect against drones, this has not yet been officially announced. The first T-90M Proryv tanks were spotted at one of the training grounds, where the gunner-operator of one of the combat vehicles told his impressions of the tank. A protective canopy from the drone covers the top of the entire tank turret, and it also has hatches for loading the crew. The protection looks pretty good and is strikingly different from the homemade structures that the crews themselves previously installed on tanks. Interview with the tank gunner-operator at the end of the video.

 

 

[JWB]

 

[crazyinsane105]

8 hours ago, Wouter2 said:

Tom is Tom, but he has been super pessimistic lately about Ukraine, especially about the chronic lack of air defence, totally insufficient western help and the Russian UMPK revolution. Most people are probably in a rollercoaster of moods/emotions and I think Tom shows that on his blog. He may not always be right, but not taking him seriously at all is not correct either IMO.

But he has a good point. After all, Russian GPS interference hasn't made JDAM's, Hammers (AASM) and Himars/ATACMS useless, far from it. Those weapons don't rely on GPS alone, hell even entirely dumb weapons like Zunis and the Russian equivalents aren't useless. For that matter, UKR/Western GPS/Glonass "jamming" hasn't made the UMPK kits and assorted other Russian weapons useless either, and surely Russia does not have a world's monopoly on jamming GPS signals?

That the GLSDB has some unique issue, either the booster thing as Tom claims, or some other flaw (does it rely only on GPS over enemy territoryand nothing else at all?) that makes this weapon useless in present form (against a capable enemy) seems clear though. Normal JDAMs still work well enough.

Given the way Boeing has been going since the McDonnel takeover and the emphasis on maximum shortterm profits at the cost of engineering and safety, it's quite believable.

GPS jamming has seriously mitigated the effects of HIMARs for over a year now 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/us-general-acknowledges-russian-jamming-diminishing-effectiveness-of-smart-weapons-in-ukraine/
 

Russian jamming has neutralized the majority of Ukrainian FPV and recon drone fleet, and drone operators are being targeted as well

https://www.businessinsider.com/russians-hunting-ukrainian-drone-pilots-destroying-tanks-electronic-warfare-2023-10?amp
 

Overall, jamming hasn’t made any of the weapons useless, but if it’s causing the strikes to miss even by a few dozen meters, it loses significant effect

[Markus Becker]

1 hour ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Overall, jamming hasn’t made any of the weapons useless, but if it’s causing the strikes to miss even by a few dozen meters, it loses significant effect

Use more submunitions?