War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[alejandro_]

40 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Rafales apparently. Well, bang goes that idea.

https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2023/11/28/kazakhstan-and-uzbekistan-plan-to-buy-rafale-fighter-jets-and-a400m-transport-aircraft-retires-russian-jets/

Rafale were dropped because of the price and the fact that they already operate Su-30s:

Kazakhstan does not intend to purchase Rafale fighters and chooses Russian SU-30SM

Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Air Defense Forces for Armaments Yerzhan Nildibaev noted that “the machine is very expensive, therefore, choosing from the price-quality ratio,” the country settled on Su-30SM aircraft

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/19421109

[Stuart Galbraith]

Sounds like the best backhander swung it to me. In no way is the SU30 a better platform than the Rafale, particularly when you remember the weapons you can hang on the latter.

[ink]

23 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sounds like the best backhander swung it to me.

Ain't that just always the way.

23 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

In no way is the SU30 a better platform than the Rafale, particularly when you remember the weapons you can hang on the latter.

It's probably not a bad choice for Kazakhstan overall. They already operate the type. Range is a big factor for them too. Also, the conventional threats they face don't necessarily require the sophistication a Rafale brings.

But, yes, ultimately, this will likely have been a tender shaped by politics and corruption rather than pure military considerations. Plus ça change.

[Perun]

[Mighty_Zuk]

Quietly, Israel is shutting down its Patriot units in favor of more advanced local systems. The process has already begun a while ago, according to the article, but I assume it's boosted by the recent aid package.

Also, I assume it has something to do with Ukraine. Unlike European countries, Israel does not publicize this kind of stuff.

https://www.idf.il/אתרי-יחידות/יומן-המלחמה/כל-הכתבות/כתבות-ייזומות/מערכת-הנשק-פטריוט-מסיימת-את-שירותה-בחיל-האוויר/

Quick googling tells me:

1. A single US Patriot battalion contains 4 batteries, each including one radar, one C2 system, and multiple launchers.

2. Israeli battalion probably identical as I found a post about battery D of the 139th battalion.

3. Israel had 2 battalions until 2021.

4. One battalion was shut down and its batteries were transferred to the other. It is unknown if some systems were withdrawn during the transfer.

 

This is a decent capacity to transfer to Ukraine. I imagine the US will buy these, have them refurbished and brought to a single standard, and provided to Ukraine.

Edited April 30 by Mighty_Zuk

[alejandro_]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sounds like the best backhander swung it to me. In no way is the SU30 a better platform than the Rafale, particularly when you remember the weapons you can hang on the latter.

Of course, in your head there is no way the Su-30SM has anything to offer when compared to Rafale, even if the Su-30s have antiradar missile that the Rafales lack. Same with the range/payload.

 

[KV7]

Very odd case of Russia going to extra lengths to depress the gun on Leopard 2:

"In order to depress the gun of the captured tank Leopard-2A6, the Russian Federation broke it's gun and stabilizer. Unlike Soviet and Russian tanks, the Leopard-2A6 does not have a manual gun elevation mechanism, so they resorted to such a barbaric method"

IIRC there actually is a manual elevation wheel, but presumably the stabiliser still lowers the possible depression because it needs to leave some free room for travel in order to work.

https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/2232456.html

Edited April 30 by KV7

[mkenny]

The display of the captured vehicles is a propaganda move pure and simple. The Russians know they are scrap vehicles and do not care how they damage them. Given the thousands of 'I don't care/do I look bothered'  reaction posts all over the internet from western wunder-weapon fans it appears to be a very successful propaganda move. 

[yochlol]

Especially since said wunder-weapons were supposed to drive the Russians into Azov Sea in 11 days!
...
Did I get that right?

[Josh]

6 hours ago, Yama said:

T-38, B-52... 

they have a better safety rate than the MiG-21. You could probably add some of the C-130 force to that list.

[Josh]

4 hours ago, ink said:

Ain't that just always the way.

It's probably not a bad choice for Kazakhstan overall. They already operate the type. Range is a big factor for them too. Also, the conventional threats they face don't necessarily require the sophistication a Rafale brings.

But, yes, ultimately, this will likely have been a tender shaped by politics and corruption rather than pure military considerations. Plus ça change.

I can’t think of a single aircraft purchase that wasn’t largely driven by politics.

[crazyinsane105]

Since the ban on Russian ammo into the US, around 400 million rounds of Russian ammunition has entered into the US. And even now, ships still arrive in the US since these orders were signed pre ban. 
 

Basically, Russian small arms manufacturing is significant 

[crazyinsane105]

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sounds like the best backhander swung it to me. In no way is the SU30 a better platform than the Rafale, particularly when you remember the weapons you can hang on the latter.

Rafales lack range when in comparison to Su-30 or F-15. Kazakhstan is a massive country, largest in Central Asia. For a cost effective option, Sukhoi makes perfect sense.

[crazyinsane105]

9 hours ago, Josh said:

Jesus that must suck...there is no way the pilot is younger than the airframe...

Half of Indian MiG-21 fleet has crashed in last several decades. That’s how old they are, and there is significant need to replace them but Indian government drags its feet all the time on it 

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, yochlol said:

Especially since said wunder-weapons were supposed to drive the Russians into Azov Sea in 11 days!
...
Did I get that right?

Could have been 8 days 

 

[sunday]

58 minutes ago, mkenny said:

Could have been 8 days 

 

It is a beautiful plan, however. Pretty arrows, and all that.

I am sure the Powerpoint presentation was magnificent.

[KV7]

Is this map fanart or a real leak ?

If real, it seemingly kind of strengthens the case that Ukraine blew the dam, as they show crossings where is would otherwise be difficult.

[sunday]

9 minutes ago, KV7 said:

Is this map fanart or a real leak ?

If real, it seemingly kind of strengthens the case that Ukraine blew the dam, as they show crossings where is would otherwise be difficult.

I am not sure. Kakhovka Dam was almost 100km downstream of Nikopol, way to the west of the zone of operations.

[KV7]

3 minutes ago, sunday said:

I am not sure. Kakhovka Dam was almost 100km downstream of Nikopol, way to the west of the zone of operations.

Oh of course, I was badly mistaken.

[BansheeOne]

Fan art, drawn up by one of the myriad self-declared OSINT experts on Twitter (of the pro-Russian kind) last June as a strawman in Ukrainian colors to knock down. No real plan for the Ukrainian offensive is publically known.

 

[JWB]

 

[Yama]

1 hour ago, BansheeOne said:

Fan art, drawn up by one of the myriad self-declared OSINT experts on Twitter (of the pro-Russian kind) last June as a strawman in Ukrainian colors to knock down. No real plan for the Ukrainian offensive is publically known.

Thought so, it sounded nonsense. There were undoubtedly optimism about the offensive and its goals after some spectacular successes of the Kharkiv operation, but they surely weren't that dumb. Also, Zaluhznyi cancelled the original plan after just like a week.

[Yama]

9 hours ago, ink said:

It's probably not a bad choice for Kazakhstan overall. They already operate the type. Range is a big factor for them too. Also, the conventional threats they face don't necessarily require the sophistication a Rafale brings.

But, yes, ultimately, this will likely have been a tender shaped by politics and corruption rather than pure military considerations. Plus ça change.

For less developed nations, where manhours are inexpensive but foreign currency is pricey, older generation aircraft which require lots of hands-in work for maintenance, are often cheaper to operate.

You can see this with helicopters, too, as some countries say that Mi-17 is too expensive to operate compared to newer types such as Blackhawk, NH90 and so on, and other countries say the opposite.

 

 

[ink]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

For less developed nations, where manhours are inexpensive but foreign currency is pricey, older generation aircraft which require lots of hands-in work for maintenance, are often cheaper to operate.

You can see this with helicopters, too, as some countries say that Mi-17 is too expensive to operate compared to newer types such as Blackhawk, NH90 and so on, and other countries say the opposite.

I'm sure that must be true. I expect there's a training element too. It's easier to train ground crew to fix just about everything on a Mi-17 than is the case for an NH-90, for example.

But I was thinking more about the output than the input. All that fancy electronic warfare kit on a Rafale... That's only really going to be useful if Kazakhstan goes to war with Russia or China. At which point, the difference between having bought Rafales or Flankers is going to be low down on their list of worries.

[mkenny]

1 hour ago, Yama said:

Thought so, it sounded nonsense. There were undoubtedly optimism about the offensive and its goals after some spectacular successes of the Kharkiv operation, but they surely weren't that dumb. Also, Zaluhznyi cancelled the original plan after just like a week.

'Optimism'?   There was a huge pre-offensive  offensive in the media where western super-duper wunder-tanks were seen 'laughing' at the puny primitive dragons teeth that the backward shovel-wielding convicts were cowering behind. Said wunder-tanks were shown  practising crashing through the dragons teeth. YouTube was awash with western 'military experts' predicting that the western super-duper wunder-tanks would crush their puny Russian counterparts  with their massively super-guns and sights. Alas as soon as the Leopards sallied forth they were destroyed within sight of their start lines. They were simply stopped dead at the first Russian positions and the 'original plan' was not cancelled it simply could not make any headway. It was defeated. 

I am at a loss as to how anyone could try and play down the massive over-hyping of the Ukrainian   'sssshhhhh' attack and no amount of latter-day re-writing of history can erase the utter debacle that played out around Robotyne in June 2023.  Am I the only one who remembers the barrage of 'its the same tank filmed 10 times', 'its  only damaged' & 'the crew survived' cope that greeted anyone who dared post a Russian film of a smouldering western super-duper wunder-tank?

 

Edited April 30 by mkenny