War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only

[Roman Alymov]

6 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The odds that an aircraft would just by chance happen to suffer this level of catastrophic engine fire at that exact moment of egress from the front lines seems less likely than it was damaged by an S-200 and flew for a distance before crashing. 

Pro-Ukrainians complain about being unable to hit planes that are dropping dozens (or now even hundreds) of glide bombs daily from 50-70 km distance, with subsonic speed, the same places every day. Claiming ability to hit relatively rare and relatively fast target at hundreds of kilometers distance is not consistant with that.

[RETAC21]

37 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Pro-Ukrainians complain about being unable to hit planes that are dropping dozens (or now even hundreds) of glide bombs daily from 50-70 km distance, with subsonic speed, the same places every day. Claiming ability to hit relatively rare and relatively fast target at hundreds of kilometers distance is not consistant with that.

The flight profile of the Tu-22M3 is likely to be hi-hi-hi to maximize missile range, so they would see it coming for some time and have time enough to set the ambush up. That and overconfidence (they can't hit us here) will do.

[seahawk]

50 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Pro-Ukrainians complain about being unable to hit planes that are dropping dozens (or now even hundreds) of glide bombs daily from 50-70 km distance, with subsonic speed, the same places every day. Claiming ability to hit relatively rare and relatively fast target at hundreds of kilometers distance is not consistant with that.

Exactly and SA-5 is not a mobile system, while the RuAF has already destroyed all IRIS-T and patriots.

[bojan]

1 hour ago, RETAC21 said:

Ukrainians seem to be claiming to have used a S-200 that hit it at about 300 or so kilometers...

300km is only possible for head-on engagement for a target of Tu-22M3 cruising speed. In which case missile would have most likely hit frontal part of the aircraft, cockpit, and not engines. Also, anything that hits engines would have also most probably have hit tail.

So possible in theory, but highly unlikely.

Edited April 20 by bojan

[Markus Becker]

18 hours ago, bojan said:

Both have common ancestor, Vickers 8" howitzer from WW1.

The ammo in the previous pictures is by any chance from 1988 as someone in another forum thinks. 

[jmsaari]

36 minutes ago, bojan said:

300km is only possible for head-on engagement for a target of Tu-22M3 cruising speed. In which case missile would have most likely hit frontal part of the aircraft, cockpit, and not engines. Also, anything that hits engines would have also most probably have hit tail.

So possible in theory, but highly unlikely.

I've understood 300km should be about the max controllable range against medium-altitude targets for the last few S-200 variants... if so, it would seem it should be able to reach the bomber at that range whether approaching or receding, just the launch range would be less so the target will be within 300km still when the missile reaches it.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, RETAC21 said:

The flight profile of the Tu-22M3 is likely to be hi-hi-hi to maximize missile range, so they would see it coming for some time and have time enough to set the ambush up. That and overconfidence (they can't hit us here) will do.

On the other hand, a backfire has plenty of capability to run compare to an A-50. If they were given any warning they should have been able to evade.

[jmsaari]

1 minute ago, Josh said:

On the other hand, a backfire has plenty of capability to run compare to an A-50. If they were given any warning they should have been able to evade.

The curious thing would be what kind of S-200 Ukraine is using. If they can lock the target for terminal homing only once the missile is getting relatively close, the warning might not be enough...

[Josh]

37 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

The curious thing would be what kind of S-200 Ukraine is using. If they can lock the target for terminal homing only once the missile is getting relatively close, the warning might not be enough...

S200 is a fighter sized missile that travels at high altitude. Any ground based radar should have detected it, though perhaps communication across organizations is problematic.

[RETAC21]

51 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

The curious thing would be what kind of S-200 Ukraine is using. If they can lock the target for terminal homing only once the missile is getting relatively close, the warning might not be enough...

I am pretty sure the Ukrainians have done "something" to the S-200s to shoot down big targets far away with minimal warning.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, RETAC21 said:

I am pretty sure the Ukrainians have done "something" to the S-200s to shoot down big targets far away with minimal warning.

The A-50 knew what was coming, and it looks like SAM crews even tried to save it based on the video.

[RETAC21]

34 minutes ago, Josh said:

The A-50 knew what was coming, and it looks like SAM crews even tried to save it based on the video.

Yes, but the original missile takes a huge amount of time to get to maximum range (4 to 7 minutes) and being SARH it would give a fast target plenty of time to avoid it:

"Automatic tracking of the target by the homing head based on the signals reflected from the target begins before the launch of the missile and continues in flight"

Yet the A-50 and the Tu-22M3 seem to have been caught unawares with just seconds of warning. 

[bojan]

3 hours ago, jmsaari said:

I've understood 300km should be about the max controllable range against medium-altitude targets for the last few S-200 variants... if so, it would seem it should be able to reach the bomber at that range whether approaching or receding, just the launch range would be less so the target will be within 300km still when the missile reaches it.

Well, in theory it is possible to also hit it if going away, problem is that energy vise missile is at it's "last legs" there, with IIRC velocity dropping to subsonic somewhere about 290km. Side shot at that distance is impossible, missile will use too much energy for compensation even on target flying  with steady parameters.

Velocity diagram for S-200 for head-on engagement, you can see large drop-off that starts after 200km.

Most of the velocity retention at long range is a product of rocket diving after it spends all fuel:

Another problem with super-long engagements is that gas generator that gives power to missile will stop working after 295 seconds of flight.

  

6 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Yes, but the original missile takes a huge amount of time to get to maximum range (4 to 7 minutes) ...

Gas generator works 295 seconds, missile after that time will have no power and hence will be unable to guide.

 

Edited April 20 by bojan

[Josh]

Engine failure seems more likely to me. S200 intercept is possible but the capability of the aircraft and the rear hit makes it seem unlikely to me. We probably will never know.

[seahawk]

25 minutes ago, Josh said:

Engine failure seems more likely to me. S200 intercept is possible but the capability of the aircraft and the rear hit makes it seem unlikely to me. We probably will never know.

S200/SA-5 is unlikely. It is SARH guided, so the plane has warning time and while an A-50 can not dive to the deck quickly a Tu-22M3 can.

[Yama]

21 hours ago, bojan said:

It fell 400km from a frontline, so IMO shotdown can be most probably discounted.

Maybe spec_op team near the field, with MANPAD missile...?

[Josh]

33 minutes ago, Yama said:

Maybe spec_op team near the field, with MANPAD missile...?

It was not near its home airfield. It was almost certainly out of MANPAD envelope. I think a simple engine failure is the best bet.

Edited April 20 by Josh

[Roman Alymov]

Improvised antidrone protection tank (ironically named by pro-Russians "Tsar - brazier") in action 

 

reportedly made of T-72 with broken turret traversing mechanism

 

[Yama]

4 hours ago, seahawk said:

S200/SA-5 is unlikely. It is SARH guided, so the plane has warning time and while an A-50 can not dive to the deck quickly a Tu-22M3 can.

In video'd A-50 loss, it was baffling why the pilot did not dive below the radar horizon, if he indeed was targeted by a SARH missile. And they did know they were under attack, as they kept dropping flares.

[Roman Alymov]

Vodeo of pro-Russians towing captured Strv 122A (probably, from Avdeevka - as road bridges are probably unfinished Donetsk beltway). Note three BREM ARVs taking part  - as Soviet BREM is too light to tow heavy Western tanks off road

https://t.me/milinfolive/120765

[seahawk]

7 hours ago, Yama said:

In video'd A-50 loss, it was baffling why the pilot did not dive below the radar horizon, if he indeed was targeted by a SARH missile. And they did know they were under attack, as they kept dropping flares.

Because breaking off the radar is equally deadly.

[bojan]

11 hours ago, Yama said:

In video'd A-50 loss, it was baffling why the pilot did not dive below the radar horizon, if he indeed was targeted by a SARH missile. And they did know they were under attack, as they kept dropping flares.

It was reducing altitude, but rate of descend for A-50/Il-76 is seriously limited compared to combat aircrafts.

PS. Il-76/A-50 have combined chaff/flare launcher that drops both simultaneously, it is just that we could not see chaff in the night.

[Roman Alymov]

Photos of damaged MIM-104 Patriot TEL aoirlifted to US for repairs https://t.me/milinfolive/120776

 

[Soldier36]

Footage of combat work in Ukraine, Russian BMP-2M, the location of the shooting is not reported. BMP-2M is a modernized version of the BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle, technical information in the video link in the comments to the video. BMP-2M of the Pskov paratroopers, supposedly breaking through to the rear of the Ukrainian army for a landing. Incredibly, the BMP-2M withstood two FPV drone attacks, an RPG attack and a cluster munition attack, as will be shown at the end of the video. Perhaps the BMP-2M had additional armor, since such an attack is difficult even for a tank to withstand. The armored vehicle commander reportedly received a slight concussion as a result of the attack.

 

 

Edited April 21 by Soldier36

[Roman Alymov]

7 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Vodeo of pro-Russians towing captured Strv 122A (probably, from Avdeevka - as road bridges are probably unfinished Donetsk beltway). Note three BREM ARVs taking part  - as Soviet BREM is too light to tow heavy Western tanks off road

https://t.me/milinfolive/120765

Probably the same tank transported on truck https://t.me/boris_rozhin/120939