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War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only


bojan

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Although... Thinking about it, if it was entirely made up, they probably would have attributed the kills to brave Russian pilots. So there might still be something to it.

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15 minutes ago, ink said:

Although... Thinking about it, if it was entirely made up, they probably would have attributed the kills to brave Russian pilots. So there might still be something to it.

I could believe they shot down one or two. 24? It would mean the best day of the war so far for Russia, and absolutely no evidence presented to illustrate it.

I remember something once said by a UFO researcher, 'Extraordinary claims require Extraordinary evidence'.  If they have some, great, lets see it. Im perfectly willing to be convinced.

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1 hour ago, ink said:

Impressive if true. It's the missile-based concept British military planners dreamed of in the 1960s.

I am very sceptical that this works, if you consider the typical height the Ukrainians are flying at. Maybe they guided 24 S400 in that way, but that does not mean they hit 24 targets. At the heights the Ukrainians are flying they will disappear from the radar guite often.

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18 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

That was allready discussed couple of days ago

 

Yeah, I saw that but didn't find it convincing, I'm afraid. Reason being that there is evidently some coordination of propaganda efforts that could easily supercede the inter-service rivalry you brought up.

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32 minutes ago, seahawk said:

I am very sceptical that this works, if you consider the typical height the Ukrainians are flying at. Maybe they guided 24 S400 in that way, but that does not mean they hit 24 targets. At the heights the Ukrainians are flying they will disappear from the radar guite often.

One would presume the ploy relies on the missile's active seeker having sufficient capability to distinguish the target from the ground clutter in a long-range diving attack.

How you confirm a kill in such a scenario is beyond me.

 

EDIT: Also worth mentioning that we don't know what altitude the Ukrainians fly at when they are "safely" distant from the line.

Edited by ink
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Just now, ink said:

Yeah, I saw that but didn't find it convincing, I'm afraid. Reason being that there is evidently some coordination of propaganda efforts that could easily supercede the inter-service rivalry you brought up.

What propaganda efforts? This claims are almost unseen in Russian MSM space, what is the sake in propaganda debated mostly by enthusianst and specialists? 

    By the way Russian public (at least that part of it who are sort of interesred in day to day war news) are quite sceptical about this reports, and MoD Shoigu reporting it made them even more sceptical (since Shoigu is even more hated than the rest of ruling elite). Probably will take some time later to make few translations.

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16 minutes ago, ink said:

One would presume the ploy relies on the missile's active seeker having sufficient capability to distinguish the target from the ground clutter in a long-range diving attack.

How you confirm a kill in such a scenario is beyond me.

 

EDIT: Also worth mentioning that we don't know what altitude the Ukrainians fly at when they are "safely" distant from the line.

Considering that the Russian also field R-37 and R-77 armed fighters, I would expect the Ukrainians to fly low to very low, especially if an A-50 is present.

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I don't know (or can only guess at) the purpose Russian propaganda efforts but the fact is they exist and their existence makes it impossible to take at face value any news coming from the Russian information space.

The same is true elsewhere, of course, lest you think I'm picking on Russia.

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1 minute ago, seahawk said:

Considering that the Russian also field R-37 and R-77 armed fighters, I would expect the Ukrainians to fly low to very low, especially if an A-50 is present.

I would assume that to be the case also, though they may have relaxed somewhat or decided to take additional risks. Given the information available, all we can do is guess in the dark like idiots 😎

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...

An additional factor might be the quality/serviceability of Ukrainian RWRs. Also, there's every chance the Russians could have found a frequency combo that doesn't set off a Soviet-era RWR until it's too late (i.e. until, for example, the missile switches on its active seeker).

Like I said, we're just idiots guessing in the dark.

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This is likely. but a few days ago there was a story that R-37M was responsible for the increased number of air-to-air kills now it is S400. Considering the inflated number (higher than the probable operational fleet of the Ukrainians) I believe it is either PR or they shoot a the Ukrainians and simply count every missile launch as a kill.

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2 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

What propaganda efforts? This claims are almost unseen in Russian MSM space, what is the sake in propaganda debated mostly by enthusianst and specialists? 

    By the way Russian public (at least that part of it who are sort of interesred in day to day war news) are quite sceptical about this reports, and MoD Shoigu reporting it made them even more sceptical (since Shoigu is even more hated than the rest of ruling elite). Probably will take some time later to make few translations.

Just because its failed propaganda, doesnt mean it isnt propaganda. I direct you to the week before the war when we saw cadavers from medical schools blown up to illustrate a narrative. Just because everyone saw through it instantly, didnt mean it wasnt a genuine effort to convince people.

Sounds to me the Russian public have their shit squared away then.

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2 hours ago, ink said:

...

An additional factor might be the quality/serviceability of Ukrainian RWRs. Also, there's every chance the Russians could have found a frequency combo that doesn't set off a Soviet-era RWR until it's too late (i.e. until, for example, the missile switches on its active seeker).

Like I said, we're just idiots guessing in the dark.

The report reads that the A-50's provide target tracking information to the S-400, allowing the S-400 to engage the target without emitting.   A-50's can be assumed to routinely track Ukrainian aircraft deep inside Ukrainian air space since the start of the war.

 

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15 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

 The A-50 track on the target would disappear.

But it would also disappear if the target dropped to a given altitude where ground clutter can "hide" the target. Losing track of a target =/= a kill.

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5 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The report reads that the A-50's provide target tracking information to the S-400, allowing the S-400 to engage the target without emitting.   A-50's can be assumed to routinely track Ukrainian aircraft deep inside Ukrainian air space since the start of the war.

 

Yeah, it's fair enough to assume that. However, drawing conclusions on the back of that assumption + one "report" online is essentially pointless.

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47 minutes ago, ink said:

But it would also disappear if the target dropped to a given altitude where ground clutter can "hide" the target. Losing track of a target =/= a kill.

The reports indicate the the targets are flying at about 3,000 feet, so if the missile arrives and the target disappears, it's not because of ground clutter.

Quote

Yeah, it's fair enough to assume that. However, drawing conclusions on the back of that assumption + one "report" online is essentially pointless.

What I find pointless is refusing to draw conclusions from information available.  What we know is that the Russians have claimed 24 aircraft shot down using a method that is theoretically possible, and that the Ukrainian Air Force is yet to make a denial.

Edited by glenn239
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21 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

The reports indicate the the targets are flying at about 3,000 feet, so if the missile arrives and the target disappears, it's not because of ground clutter.

What I find pointless is refusing to draw conclusions from information available.  What we know is that the Russians have claimed 24 aircraft shot down using a method that is theoretically possible, and that the Ukrainian Air Force is yet to make a denial.

The only reasonable conclusion to draw is that both sides keep making wild claims, yet the front is basically static and neither side looks to be close to achieving any kind of overall strategic objective.

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You are really discussing "why and how" when even "what happened" (if anything*) has not been answered?

*Through it appears something did happen, just not 5646655 planes shot down.

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2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

The report reads that the A-50's provide target tracking information to the S-400, allowing the S-400 to engage the target without emitting.   A-50's can be assumed to routinely track Ukrainian aircraft deep inside Ukrainian air space since the start of the war.

 

And what means does the S-400 use for terminal homing?

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39 minutes ago, DB said:

And what means does the S-400 use for terminal homing?

40N6 SAM has an active terminal homing variant, meaning that the missile has a radar system to detect, track, and intercept a target independent of the S-400 battery.  The missile's capacity to do any of this is limited due to the small size of the radar that can be installed, and the limited flight time the SAM has avaialble.  That means that mid-course target tracking information via the A-50 would be vital to give the missile the information needed to be in the right position at the right time.  The S-400 itself needs not emit radar transmissions at all.  All the missile requires is tje data needed for its intercept.

The weakness in the system will presumably be the vulnerability of the A-50 to kinetic countermeasures.  However, the Ukrainians do not have THAAD, or stealth fighters to do anything about that.  I doubt F-16 with AMRAAM can do anything.

 

Edited by glenn239
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7 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I remember something once said by a UFO researcher, 'Extraordinary claims require Extraordinary evidence'.  If they have some, great, lets see it. Im perfectly willing to be convinced.

Carl Sagan was never a "UFO researcher" that I can recall. 😂

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1 hour ago, ink said:

The only reasonable conclusion to draw is that both sides keep making wild claims, yet the front is basically static and neither side looks to be close to achieving any kind of overall strategic objective.

That would imply that Russian claims are random noise, but that's not how the Russians operate in this war.  When they get spanked, such as with the ATACMS attack on the helo base, the Russians say nothing.  So, what we get is Ukrainian claims and Russian silence, which lends weight to Ukrainian claims.  In this case, what we have is a Russian claim of success.  In the past Russians have overclaimed on some of their successes, so just because they claim 24 shot down does not mean the actual total was anywhere near that high.  But the Russians are not in the habit of completely falsifying their claims either, and in this case, the silence of the UAF seems to confirm something big is going on.

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