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War in Ukraine, technical and military aspects only


bojan

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3 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

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Not verified! 

If accurate it could be due to several factors, shell supply, successful counter battery operations by the Ukrainians, attempting to build up a stock for some larger push etc.

Oh, noes, applying Glennmatics it means the Ukrainians are about to take Moscow!! :D

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13 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Oh, noes, applying Glennmatics it means the Ukrainians are about to take Moscow!! :D

Glennmatics is that artillery kills people in direct relation to the volume fired and quality of direction.   

In the graph posted it suggests Russian artillery volume is down, which tracks to the increasing use of HIMARS and drones in the counterbattery role.  But the projected continued decline in Russian firings has no basis, since the ammunition and artillery pieces exist.  It also suggests that Ukrainian artillery usage will rise to 9,000 shells a day by the 4th quarter.  Well, whatever but the Ukrainian shell supply is dwindling so the faster they use it the faster they lose it, (9,000 shells per day being 270,000 shells per month).

Edited by glenn239
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7 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

Glennmatics is that artillery kills people in direct relation to the volume fired and quality of direction.   

In the graph posted it suggests Russian artillery volume is down, which tracks to the increasing use of HIMARS and drones in the counterbattery role.  But the projected continued decline in Russian firings has no basis, since the ammunition and artillery pieces exist.  It also suggests that Ukrainian artillery usage will rise to 9,000 shells a day by the 4th quarter.  Well, whatever but the Ukrainian shell supply is dwindling so the faster they use it the faster they lose it, (9,000 shells per day being 270,000 shells per month).

You can never win using Glenmatics... You realise that is non-sense, do you?

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4 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

You can never win using Glenmatics... You realise that is non-sense, do you?

You're thinking the Ukrainians will have 300,000 kids killed in a war and you'll win some sort of debating McGuffin?

The graph that was posted indicates a massive preponderance of Russian artillery fire up to the end of the 2nd quarter of 2023.  This will have translated directly into a massive preponderance of Ukrainian casualties to artillery fire as a result.   For example, in the 4th quarter of 2022 the graph says that the Russians fired 4 shells for every 1 Ukrainian shell.  That will have resulted in something like 4 Ukrainian casualties for every 1 Russian to artillery in that timeframe.

From the inception of the Ukrainian counteroffensive the graph suggests a reduction in the volume of Russian artillery fire.  This corresponds to changes in Ukrainian tactics that have more effectively targeted Russian artillery, so this is entirely feasible.  However, do try to understand that the casualties inflicted previously by 18 million (or so) Russian rounds already fired do not disappear in a puff of haze.

The graph proposes that Ukrainian artillery volume will surpass the Russians in the 4th quarter of 2023.  The uptick in volume has an obvious cause - the supply of a million cluster rounds from US stocks.  It is not clear if this one-off can be repeated, so where Ukraine is getting its next million rounds is unknown.  Meanwhile, reports are that up to 10 million Korean rounds are on the way.

Ukrainian artillery itself is being destroyed in large numbers daily and reports accumulate suggesting increasingly severe Ukrainian ammunition shortages, suggesting that the prediction on the graph for the Ukrainians to overtake the Russians in daily volumes end of 2023 will not occur.  

Current causes of battlefield casualties appear to be in a state of flux.  If in 2022 it seems that 80% (or whatever) of casualties were being caused by artillery, now its not so clear how FAB bombs (Russian) and drones (both sides) have impacted the balance.  What seems to be the case is that for both sides, the ratio of casualties lost to artillery has diminished and the losses to drones (and for the Ukrainians, FAB bombs) has increased.

Edited by glenn239
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1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

You're thinking the Ukrainians will have 300,000 kids killed in a war and you'll win some sort of debating McGuffin?

The graph that was posted indicates a massive preponderance of Russian artillery fire up to the end of the 2nd quarter of 2023.  This will have translated directly into a massive preponderance of Ukrainian casualties to artillery fire as a result.   For example, in the 4th quarter of 2022 the graph says that the Russians fired 4 shells for every 1 Ukrainian shell.  That will have resulted in something like 4 Ukrainian casualties for every 1 Russian to artillery in that timeframe.

With all my respect, this logic is not supported by any real data. Number of casualties is not necessary the direct proportion of numnber of shells fired. It might be so in some cases, but not so in others. For example, due to being outnumbered and suffering from severe shortage of foot infantry, pro-Rus forces were forced to rely strongly on artillery fire to take even marginal enemy positions - th the extent that even available infantry (sometimes 5-men group) could just walk to the plowed ground that was enemy trenches to make sure nobody is alive there. No need to say it was resulting in massive use of atrllery ammunition - as truclloads of heavy artillery shells were used up for the task usually done by hand grenades when attacking infantry got proper number of men. Ues pro-Ukrainians were killed in process, but it was their tactics of choice - drop few dozens of mobilized soldiers to every forest belt and make Russian artillery process them into meat one after another, with massive loss of time and ammunition.

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All Russian military factories have increased their production output several times.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu checked the implementation of the state defense order in the Nizhny Novgorod region, and an opportunity arose to see Russian military-industrial complex enterprises. The video shows the production process of FAB-500, FAB-1500 and other ammunition at the plant. Such bombs are capable of destroying any reinforced concrete shelters, even if they are underground. In recent months, the Russian military-industrial complex has increased the production of ammunition several times, the production of some types has increased 50 times, and Russian weapons factories are working in three shifts.

 

Workshops of the enterprises “SPLAV Research and Production Association” and “Imperial Tula Arms Plant”. The head of the Russian Ministry of Defense was shown the workshops of military factories for the production of rockets for multiple launch rocket systems, lines for the assembly of anti-tank guided missiles and artillery ammunition. The video also shows the “Agriculture” remote mining machine

The Russian military-industrial complex continues to increase the production of military products. The plant produces anti-aircraft missiles for the S-300 Favorit air defense system, the S-400 Triumph air defense system and the S-350 Vityaz air defense system. The plant's management reported that it had significantly increased production within the framework of the state defense order and would further increase the production of missiles.

 

Edited by Soldier36
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Thought you guys might like to see this.... I dont think its a real pIV but nice never the less

 

 

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Weaponized commercial Chinese drones are majority of "strike" drones on both sides. Second most common is Lancet, with ~600 published strikes so far. Everything else is mostly statistical error. Which is logical, MALE drones (TB-2, Russian Orion or whatever it is named etc) die to decent integrated AD easily and are hence not worth using on frontlines, being more valuable as stand-off observation platforms.

In observation drones category Orlan is pretty common, but frontline recce drones for both sides are also heavily dominated by Chinese commercial ones.

 

Edited by bojan
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@Soldier36

Quote

All Russian military factories have increased their production output several times.

Well, then did you do magic? In 2017, the following was reported about the ammunition factory in Kazan:

"'Kazan on a powder keg: the wear and tear on the largest “arsenal” is unimaginable
...
In the period 2013-2017, 841 violations were detected there, and the wear of the main technical equipment reached 90%.
...
“About 90 percent of the wear and tear of individual main technological equipment is associated with devices that were not manufactured in Russia and are no longer supplied and produced from abroad.
...
“In general, wear and tear on all major technical devices is about 70 percent,...'
...
In addition to the depreciation of fixed assets and “untimely implementation of repairs and replacement of instruments and devices of the emergency protection system,” Rostekhnadzor openly points to the notorious human factor. These are non-compliance with technical production regulations, as well as insufficient control and incorrect actions by officials and workers.
...
However, one should not think that the situation at the ammunition factory in Kazan is unique and, as they say, “has no analogue in Russia.” “The situation is the same everywhere.
...

Despite everything, Shepovalenko considers Russian powder factories to be quite stable in terms of the established technological process.
..."
Source: https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/347149

 

Ok, the production certainly increased. But in the end, ammunition has to be begged from North Korea and elsewhere.
The Kremlin never in its life thought of such a long war. Blitzkrieg was the plan. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:


The Kremlin never in its life thought of such a long war. Blitzkrieg was the plan. 

The Russians appear to be more willing to face reality than the Ukrainians. They are now firmly committed to  a slow steady war of attrition whilst Ukraine is totally focused on  small 'flag raising' tactical successes that play well in the western client media but  will not win the war. 

Now he Robotyne 'blitzkrieg/shaping' operation has utterly failed the initiative is firmly with the Russians

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1 hour ago, Stefan Kotsch said:

Ok, the production certainly increased. But in the end, ammunition has to be begged from North Korea and elsewhere.
 

'And elsewhere'.  Rumors today that the Chinese are going to massively increase their missile and electronic subcomponent supply to Russia, so that they in turn can ramp up their production both for the Ukraine war as well as for re-export to Arab countries.

Edited by glenn239
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55 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

I wonder why they never showed th missile hitting the target? did it actually hit?

It is the specifics of all this "FPV guided" missiles  - from cheap cheap FPV drones to modest-cost Lancet to expencive Izd.305: TV signal processing and broadcast takes some time, so it is no way to show last fractions of second before impact. But regular FPV drones and Lancets are operating with ground crews and, usually, within observation of other drones that are able to show the target after impact. Izd.305 is launched  from helicopter without support from ground-based drones and there is nobody to film the results.

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23 minutes ago, alejandro_ said:

Any idea on the performance or equivalent Western model?

Relatively old Western article on electronic components of RusArmy (in English) weapons https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/239f756e2e6b49a5bec78f5c5248bf3d

and Russian take from this article

https://dzen.ru/a/YxcJrhC7khRPoUeG

Yandex-translation

"What electronic components did the Americans find inside our missiles? :-)))
September 9, 2022
149K read
Recently, information about the primitiveness of the electronic component base, which is used in Russian weapons, began to actively spread on the network. Moreover, it turned out that she was a foreigner there! This fact caused a joyful bubbling of you-know-what inside our Western circles. Meanwhile, as it usually happens, everything is much, much more interesting 🙂

What Americans say
So, in total, foreign researchers counted 650 electronic components from 144 foreign manufacturers, mainly the EU and the USA. These were components of the "industrial" category (for industrial use), in plastic cases, most of which were developed in the late nineties-mid-noughties.

The articles conclude that if Russia is "cut off oxygen" in terms of purchasing imported components, it will not be able to make new missiles. It is also concluded that the transfer to the domestic element base is partially impossible (the most critical component is satellite navigation), partially requires a development cycle and production in the best case several years.

The articles also note that Russia puts the same navigation printed circuit boards in different types of weapons, which for some reason is presented as a big minus.

Printed circuit boards of satellite navigation signal receiver units in the satellite navigation systems of Russian missiles 3M14, 9M544, X-59 and X-101. The receiver is a "bookcase" of three boards.
For example, parts of the on-board computers of the X-101 rocket and the Ka-52 helicopter are identical and made of the same non-Russian components.

The photo below shows two BT33-205 boards with Baget-53-15 onboard computers of the X-101 rocket and the Ka-52 helicopter:

On-board computer Baget-53-15 missiles X-101
On-board computer Baget-53-15 of the Ka-52 helicopter
The authors of the research write that all the samples were collected from the same non-Russian components manufactured in the period from 2012 to 2020.

My comments
Well, let's start with the fact that there is an opinion on the web that the published information is fake and does not correspond to reality. In particular, the use of certain types of connectors in conditions of increased vibration, the lack of filling of the boards with compound (varnish), the unmarked marking of chips, etc. is questioned.

However, I am more inclined to believe that this information is still true, but I draw somewhat different conclusions from it.

So, I'll start with the unpleasant...

1. The component base is still foreign
Well, what can I say, information about foreign components in Russian weapons samples has surfaced in the media more than once. In conditions when Russia, in fact, did not develop its microelectronics properly until 2020, where would the Russian component base come from?

We also had a problem with satellites. Look, GLONASS has not yet been transferred to Russian components, although active work has been going on for a long time. It is expected that GLONASS spacecraft will be 100% produced from the electronic component base of domestic production only by 2025-26. I already had an article about this a year and a half ago.

2. The component base is not only foreign, but also outdated
But this is already very good 🙂 I will explain.

Firstly, the development of many types of weapons used today began quite a long time ago, and at that time electronics were based on the most relevant components at that time. Naturally, today they are probably outdated for some new developments, the components of which already have some other requirements. But they fully meet the requirements that were imposed on them during development.

Secondly, the "outdated" component base is a relative concept. If the components meet the task, then by definition they cannot be obsolete. They are simply long-developed, repeatedly tested, debugged, not having "childhood diseases", etc.

Thirdly, the old component base, as a rule, is significantly cheaper than the new one. Therefore, having the opportunity to buy cheap electronics, Russia can launch more missiles for the same money. Isn't this, among other things (in addition to salaries equated to the dollar), the surprising difference in the funds spent on the production of weapons in Russia and in the United States is explained? 🙂

Fourth, since Russia is currently unable to reproduce electronic components of the most modern level on its own within a reasonable time for obvious reasons, it would be dangerous to base its weapons on them. But the so-called "obsolete" components are much easier to copy, reproduce and put into mass production, which, as I understand it, is happening at the moment, while military production is supplied, I think, with quite large stocks of previously purchased foreign components.

In my unclouded mind view of the "sofa expert", it is too late to block the supply of foreign components to Russia. It is unlikely that we would get involved in a conflict without having a huge stock of necessary components. I wouldn't be surprised if since 2014, despite the first massive sanctions imposed against us at that time, these components have been coming to us in echelons. Well, you have to be a very naive foreigner to think that in parallel we did not try to reproduce them and did not reproduce them.

3. The same printed circuit boards are used in different products.
But it's great! Therefore, we have successfully unified the modules used in our armament. I remember that such a task was once in the noughties - the unification of everything that is possible.

4. The usual component base of non-military execution is used
But it works, right? Yes. Is it cheap? Yes. So why shove something super-protected into the rocket, if in a few minutes in both cases it will all shatter into splinters with the same efficiency in the same place of space? I think Russia should have protected copies in case of the nuclear phase of the conflict, but why waste them now?

Another, much more important reason to use a non-citizen component database is its protection against unauthorized access and copying.

For example, the US Department of Defense has standards that military contractors must follow in order to make it difficult for opposing states to create their own versions of captured weapons. Military directives also require the use of tamper-proof technologies designed to protect computer code and instructions that tell weapons how to find their target. So, a special grid is usually created around a computer chip, which, when opening the equipment, removes the contents of the chip's memory.

However, the researchers did not find anything similar in Russian technology. They said they were shocked by Russia's apparent indifference to the fact that it has so many unprotected weapons that the enemy could potentially copy. But at the same time they stated that:

This is at best the technological level of the late 1990s or mid-2000s. It's essentially the equivalent of an Xbox 360 game console, and it seems to be open to anyone who wants to take it apart and create their own copy.
So the conclusion is logical — why spend money and protect what everyone has known for a long time)))

Conclusion
In general, I got the impression that what we are throwing at them now is some old stocks that need to be disposed of))) Well, let's be careful, these are cheap consumables that you can quickly rivet on your knee and with which it is not a pity to overwhelm the enemy today, saving your people. Obviously, the new thing will come later, when the conflict gets beyond the current borders, and more effective weapons will be needed."

By the way pro-Ukrainians are recovering Russian GPS modules from wrecks of Geran' drones (as it is located in the wing, it is usually not destroyed in explosion) and installing them on own drones. Taking into account they got access to any foreign components and are not limited in amount of money to spend (US is paying for everything after all) - it is quite telling.

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1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Thirdly, the old component base, as a rule, is significantly cheaper than the new one. Therefore, having the opportunity to buy cheap electronics, Russia can launch more missiles for the same money. Isn't this, among other things (in addition to salaries equated to the dollar), the surprising difference in the funds spent on the production of weapons in Russia and in the United States is explained? 🙂

It's not necessarily true older electronic components are cheaper. As the components get outdated, they are required for smaller and smaller amount of applications, production rates go down, and price goes up. In some cases, old components can be actually very expensive and hard to acquire . Many a piece of military equipment uses components which are not made anymore - this includes such well-known items like jet fighters and Aegis cruisers! It's not a joke that militaries scavenge museums.

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9 hours ago, Yama said:

Not just Iran, USA does as well. 

A few years ago some parts of a US Navy Hornet (IIRC) exhibited in a museum were taken for an operational aircraft. Yama makes a point that at some point producing old parts will be more expensive, as machines doing the manufacturing need to be overhauled/replaced and there is little market for them.
 

Quote

 

and Russian take from this article

https://dzen.ru/a/YxcJrhC7khRPoUeG

 

 

Thanks Roman interesting account.

Edited by alejandro_
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