Space Race 2.0

[futon]

SLS delayed and delayed, latest delay was oxygen leak at launch pad, first launch mid-November.

LM9 (Long March 9) who knows who knows, big model displayed at recent PRC airshow exhibit. Launch aim is 2027.

SpaceX Falcon Heavy is suitable for supply runs to Moon. Maybe two Heavy Falcons can scheme manned lanuch to moon. Not soon in anyway.

SpaceX starship..   just a Musk style stunt? 

Gateway Lunar outpost and Artemis Program. Won't kickoff until SLS puts human puts on the Moon again AFAIK.

 

Does this space race matter less than the one between US and SU during Cold War? Does it matter more? As far as things like planetary studies go such as sending probes to other planets and such, US is waaaaaay ahead. 

In regards to military aspects, PRC closed the gap but not quite matching or overpassing the US soon. Maybe Moon race PRC may match soon or even over pass much sooner. They already put several landers and rovers on the Moon.

Launch rate per year by country has US and PRC roughly equal for last several years. 

Japan attached on the US effort. Is it's host going to lose?

ESA seems flexible to go with US and PRC.

Edited November 9, 2022 by futon

[TrustMe]

The Chinese have been using Russian scientists for decades as they kick start there own space program. Take that away and they'll go nowwhere.

[futon]

1 hour ago, TrustMe said:

The Chinese have been using Russian scientists for decades as they kick start there own space program. Take that away and they'll go nowwhere.

If there's anything that may get Russia to cut off thst kind of tech support, letting them have Ukraine might do it. But how dependent could the PRC still be on Russian tech specialists? 

[Josh]

I think there is a real race back to the moon on and I think it could have strategic consequences. It wouldn't be hard to picture China weaponizing cis lunar space, and the US is already contemplating what it will need launcher wise to maintain a presence there to monitor the region. Though I have to say that the US has the initial advantage with SpaceX having the biggest operational booster, SLS being larger still if incredibly wasteful, and Starship potentially blowing the Chinese out of the water.

[TrustMe]

24 minutes ago, Josh said:

I think there is a real race back to the moon on and I think it could have strategic consequences. It wouldn't be hard to picture China weaponizing cis lunar space, and the US is already contemplating what it will need launcher wise to maintain a presence there to monitor the region. Though I have to say that the US has the initial advantage with SpaceX having the biggest operational booster, SLS being larger still if incredibly wasteful, and Starship potentially blowing the Chinese out of the water.

Space is the ultimate "High Ground". Whoever holds onto it will win the arms race that China and the US will started in my guess 5 years ago.

[TrustMe]

3 hours ago, futon said:

If there's anything that may get Russia to cut off thst kind of tech support, letting them have Ukraine might do it. But how dependent could the PRC still be on Russian tech specialists? 

I'm not sure but my guess is that it's still rather high.

[futon]

10 hours ago, TrustMe said:

I'm not sure but my guess is that it's still rather high.

There's a lot to look over for any parts that continued use being a dependent on Russian cooperation. 

For the Long March 2, 3, and 4 rocket series YF-20 first stage seems mostly PRC developed.

Long March 5, 6, 7 firdt stsge use the YF-100 series which is based off of the RD-120. There aren't indications of imported the engines. They have the design, so no strings attached I'd assume. 

3rd stage rocket engine series seems to be mostly PRC developed, the YF-75 series.

The top 3 lift capacity rockets out of these are LM 5, LM 7, and LM 3B. 

A new LM5 slated for 2026 for crewed mission to the moon will be similar class as Falcon Heavy. LM9 slated for 2028/2030 will be SLS class for Moon infrastructure stuff.

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by futon

[futon]

11 hours ago, Josh said:

I think there is a real race back to the moon on and I think it could have strategic consequences. It wouldn't be hard to picture China weaponizing cis lunar space, and the US is already contemplating what it will need launcher wise to maintain a presence there to monitor the region. Though I have to say that the US has the initial advantage with SpaceX having the biggest operational booster, SLS being larger still if incredibly wasteful, and Starship potentially blowing the Chinese out of the water.

There's a lot of hype for Starship. Even if it does reach fruitation, the amount of hype generated for launching empty shells iff the ground has been enormous. Media and announcements in 2018 talked about a Moon trip for 2023. Which obviously isn't going to happen as there has been no pictures of fabrication of insides. It's still an empty shell. But for such a large vessel in which previous modes of going to the moon had been just capsules. So even as that Moon trip announcement was made in 2018, it gave only 5 years for development of the whole thing, thus fair to call BS right then and there. But no, except for anyone similsr to Jason L., all were mystified and believers. A more recent announcement was by an 82 year old that signed up for a trip around the Moon slated for 2027 or something. But it's still an empty shell. So again, this will be done in 5 years? I can't see it. Way too much hype being front loaded. Maybe it'll be done, in a mode that.contributes to the presence at the Moon (IOW, not just circle tourism around the Moon) by 2035, 2040. So in the meantime, it's only Falcon Heavy and SLS. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by futon

[Josh]

Long term, if starship works, it will have pretty unparalleled throw weight and reusability. Maybe not next year, but I could easily see end of the decade. Falcon 9 has already revolutionized the industry, undercutting everyone’s price point. I don’t see any reason why starship can’t do the same again, even if the schedules for it doing so are unrealistic.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Josh

[DKTanker]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Long term, if starship works, it will have pretty unparalleled throw weight and reusability. Maybe not next year, but I could easily see end of the decade. Falcon 9 has already revolutionized the industry, undercutting everyone’s price point. I don’t see any reason why starship can’t do the same again, even if the schedules for it doing so are unrealistic.

SpaceX has a contract with NASA for a manned lunar mission by the end of 2026.  I shouldn't think that will be problematic.  Given their respective track records it is a much safer bet than Boeing's SLS doing the equivalent.

Edited November 10, 2022 by DKTanker

[Ivanhoe]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2346762-secretive-us-space-plane-x-37b-lands-after-record-908-days-in-orbit/

Quote

The secretive X-37B space plane has beaten its previous flight duration record by staying in orbit for 908 days before landing. The autonomous craft, operated by the United States Space Force (USSF), is officially classified and therefore scant details about its purpose or missions are released, but officials say that the latest flight carried a host of scientific experiments.

I think its inhuman for Space Force to force our extraterrestrial visitors/refugees to man the X-37B (so to speak) for 2+ years without relief. Recycled piss water, Tang, and Hostess Twinkies for two years straight is no way to live.

 

[futon]

SLS launch.