NATO return to Cold War force structure

[Martineleca]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

On an related note, here's a lengthy article about the PL-Korean military industrial cooperation plans and expectations. It's a bit rough on the language side, but quite informative:

https://defence24.com/industry/korea-or-nothing-the-only-and-last-chance-to-boost-the-polish-industry-commentary

 

Thanks Huba, you're a wealth of knowledge. If the PL versions of the K2 MBT and K9 SPG prove to be superior to the originals from South Korea, or at least somewhat cheaper, it is very possible we could see Poland become a production and supply hub of those models for the entire continent, Ukraine, Romania and the Baltic states specifically.

[Martineleca]

On 11/29/2022 at 1:24 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

We need equipment of a standardised type, we can all mass produce. Considering the legacy of military production in all our countries, thats going to be a tough sell unless we all come up with something we are all invested in.

Well do you think at some point the US could take part in the Main Ground Combat System MBT program, nominally a Franco-German project since a lot of the specifications are still being developed perhaps it is early enough to insert a few American requirements to increase compatibility.

[DBNd]

1 hour ago, Martineleca said:

Well do you think at some point the US could take part in the Main Ground Combat System MBT program, nominally a Franco-German project since a lot of the specifications are still being developed perhaps it is early enough to insert a few American requirements to increase compatibility.

There’s no economic benefit to it for the US when there are thousands of Abrams hulls just lying around for GDLS to rebuild and upgrade.  We don’t need more tanks, we need more shipbuilding capacity.

[Martineleca]

11 hours ago, DBNd said:

There’s no economic benefit to it for the US when there are thousands of Abrams hulls just lying around for GDLS to rebuild and upgrade.

Well the US also had thousands of Pattons at the time the Abrams came along, yet they kept pushing for sustained production capacity as a hedge against an uncertain future, as is the case today. I just hope if the US does indeed join MGCS or some other collaboration with the UK and Australia for instance, that it will avoid the fate of the MBT 70 program where an otherwise formidable design was doomed by differing requirements and unnecessary overcomplication.

[Ssnake]

I don't think that the MBT70 was all that formidable, at least its successors were so much better in almost all aspects.

[Martineleca]

1 hour ago, Ssnake said:

I don't think that the MBT70 was all that formidable, at least its successors were so much better in almost all aspects.

In all fairness it was developed in the 1960s with the T-62 as its main adversary, the German KPZ 70 version was slightly less problematic and much of its spaced armor and 120mm gun technology found its way into the Leopard 2, extreme cost overruns with developing so many novel concepts is what ultimately killed the project.

[Ssnake]

Yes, the MBT-70 program's value lies in the exploration of novelty concepts with clear results of what was useful and what wasn't. But I'm glad we never fielded this monstrosity, even if it's all in hindsight.

[Martineleca]

1 hour ago, Ssnake said:

Yes, the MBT-70 program's value lies in the exploration of novelty concepts with clear results of what was useful and what wasn't.

Speaking of joint tank programs, when MGCS does reach the production lines and its first customers are France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, It would be dissapointing if these four countries purchase any fewer than 2000 units, has there been any discussion about the procurement plan in defense circles?

[Martineleca]

On 12/12/2022 at 12:41 PM, Ssnake said:

At least its successors were so much better in almost all aspects.

Another thing that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated is that every NATO country needs to have a sizable reserve of functioning MBTs and IFVs, so that even if not involved in a conflict they are able to backfill allied states in the event of heavy losses. The seemingly failed Leopard 2 consortium is a sad example of how unprepared many European countries are for any contingency.

[Sardaukar]

Latvia is apparently reinstating conscription.

https://news.err.ee/1608759955/latvian-parliament-sets-aside-bill-to-reinstate-conscription

Latvia abolished conscription in 2007, while Estonia and Finland retain it; Lithuania reinstated conscription in 2016, Sweden in 2017.

[BansheeOne]

Well yes, see my post on page one; but this actually speaks of a delay, though probably just for half a year.

[DBNd]

On 12/12/2022 at 4:28 AM, Martineleca said:

Well the US also had thousands of Pattons at the time the Abrams came along, yet they kept pushing for sustained production capacity as a hedge against an uncertain future, as is the case today. I just hope if the US does indeed join MGCS or some other collaboration with the UK and Australia for instance, that it will avoid the fate of the MBT 70 program where an otherwise formidable design was doomed by differing requirements and unnecessary overcomplication.

At the time there was a pressing need to replace the Patton as it was rapidly being outclassed by the T-64/72/80. That need doesn’t exist today. If we’re just mainly talking tanks, it makes more sense to send the remaining A1s still in service through the upgrade process to reduce the supply chain. 

[Huba]

14 hours ago, Sardaukar said:

Latvia is apparently reinstating conscription.

https://news.err.ee/1608759955/latvian-parliament-sets-aside-bill-to-reinstate-conscription

Latvia abolished conscription in 2007, while Estonia and Finland retain it; Lithuania reinstated conscription in 2016, Sweden in 2017.

Poland, while not re-instating conscription yet (who would do such a silly thing in an elections year, right?) will be calling people for "training" in 2023, including the ones who weren't ever conscripted. Details are murky at this point, but there's talk of 30 up to 90 day's long periods.

[Martineleca]

2 hours ago, DBNd said:

If we’re just mainly talking tanks, it makes more sense to send the remaining A1s still in service through the upgrade process to reduce the supply chain. 

I believe this has been a non stop process over the last few decades, upgrading the tanks from the storage yards during mid-life maintenance process. The M1A1s meant for Poland will likely be modified after entering service, keeping just one assembly line open is preferable to completely shutting down the plant and high costs involved in re-opening it when the need arises, history doesn't end.

[BansheeOne]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Poland, while not re-instating conscription yet (who would do such a silly thing in an elections year, right?) will be calling people for "training" in 2023, including the ones who weren't ever conscripted. Details are murky at this point, but there's talk of 30 up to 90 day's long periods.

That's interesting.

Quote

Up to 200,000 Poles to be called up for military training next year

DEC 9, 2022

Up to 200,000 people can be called up for military exercises in Poland next year, including some who have never put their name forward for service but are deemed to have “useful skills”. However, a senior military official has explained that only a “minimal” number will actually be summoned.

The exercises can last up to 90 days, and failure to attend is punishable by jail or a fine. During that period, reservists receive an army salary, which would in many cases be a private’s pay of 117.13 zloty (around €25) per day.

The pool of people who can be called up are those aged 55 and under who have been through so-called military qualification, which is compulsory for all men turning 19 and during which the candidate’s health category and fitness for military service are determined.

Under a homeland defence law adopted earlier this year, the qualification obligation also applies to women graduating from medical and veterinary schools, as well as from psychology courses.

After it was reported this week that up 200,000 such people could be called up for exercises, Colonel Miroslaw Bryś, the head of the Central Military Recruitment Centre, yesterday sought to explain and play down the reports.

“I assume that it will be the minimum number of people [called up],” he said. “People who have qualifications, have a certified category, but have not been to military training.”

“Here we are talking about specialisations that are very important from the military’s point of view. I mean… doctors, nurses, paramedics, IT specialists, drivers and lawyers. This is a narrow group of people who have specific skills and specific qualifications and whose service in the Polish army would be very useful,” said Bryś.

When asked for a specific number of call-ups, the colonel suggested it could be around 3,000 and that they would have only two days of training to get “familiarised with military equipment”. They would then be “released to the passive reserve”.

Under the Homeland Defence Act, in force since April 2022, each year the government issues a decree which provides the number of persons who may be called up for active military service or military exercises. The defence ministry published the guidelines for next year in a draft resolution earlier this month.

[...]

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/12/09/up-to-200000-poles-to-be-called-up-for-military-training-next-year/

[txtree99]

Deleted

Edited December 14, 2022 by txtree99
Wrong thread

[Martineleca]

9 hours ago, Huba said:

Calling people for "training" in 2023, including the ones who weren't ever conscripted. Details are murky at this point, but there's talk of 30 up to 90 day's long periods.

I think this will become a problem for the European Union and freedom of movement as more countries bring back conscription, if one country permits draft dodgers to stay who have a legal duty to serve in their own nation.

[DB]

7 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

That's interesting.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/12/09/up-to-200000-poles-to-be-called-up-for-military-training-next-year/

It will be to replace the Polish divisions who were reported to be marching east out of Kyiv a few months ago, and which have mysteriously disappeared since. Obviously wiped out entirely by the glorious forces of mother Russia. We all know that there are no real Ukrainians left alive in their armies, it's all foreigners.

[Sardaukar]

On 12/14/2022 at 8:29 PM, Martineleca said:

I think this will become a problem for the European Union and freedom of movement as more countries bring back conscription, if one country permits draft dodgers to stay who have a legal duty to serve in their own nation.

I don't think there will be a problem. Even in Finland it's pretty easy to get deferment from conscription.

Generally, with conscription, it's not good to keep in people who really hate it there.

[Ssnake]

...but you don't want to make it too easy to dodge draft either.

[Pavel Novak]

In Cz before conscription cancellation one could choose between one year military service or one and half year civil service. It actually worked quite well.

[Huba]

It was the same in PL. All of this was before EU and Schengen membership though.
Even this "training" that is supposedly going to be quite short sent huge shockwave through the society, who in general was rather oblivious to the fact that this needs  to happen. There will be a lot of discontent because of this in the future too, especially cause at least initially there's bound to be a lot of screw-ups, given the magnitude of the task. But going forward,  I guess the few dummies who will prefer to run abroad instead of doing the service (or the civil service alternative) will be dealt with the same way as others who flee from the law, there are quite efficient EU mechanisms for that.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Huba

[Martineleca]

On 12/18/2022 at 11:14 AM, Ssnake said:

...but you don't want to make it too easy to dodge draft either.

It is shocking that hyper-militarized South Korea has a smaller defence budget than Germany, while true that due to conscription they spend less on salaries they also have three times more active troops along with all their equipment that needs to be maintained in functioning order at all times. Where the hell is all that money for the Bundeswehr going to?

[Ssnake]

That is an excellent question, and I'm glad you're asking this.

Next question, please.

 

 

I think some answers can be found in this Perun Powerpoint presentation:

 

[Martineleca]

On 11/18/2022 at 10:57 AM, RETAC21 said:

I agree, but the source where T type tanks could be sourced fastest is... North Korea.

Recently a new possible source has opened up, Turkmenistan has been drifting away from Russian influence for a long time now and are becoming a serious competitor on the gas market. They possess around 700 T-72UMG tanks that were actually upgraded by Ukrainian companies in the past, if the US can pull enough strings a few hundred of those vehicles could be purchased and later on sent to Ukraine.