NATO return to Cold War force structure

[seahawk]

Again, that is 5.000 new tanks in 10 years while the refurbished ones and current inventory are kept. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Martineleca said:

500 brand new T-90Ms annually is the figure they plan to reach a few years from now, ironically it was the same for the Armata had it's original assembly timetable been followed, how does that compare to projected Chinese/Nork/Iranian production or for the"collective" West?

Maybe if they are rebuilding T90's and T90A's they could make that happen. But I dont believe its going to happen whilst they are cutting personnel at Uralvagonzavod because they cant afford them.

https://www.reuters.com/business/big-russian-tank-railcar-manufacturer-says-it-is-restructuring-cut-costs-2025-11-07/

Basically, we get handed figures by the Russian MOD, go 'oooh!' and accept them. I would hope that with the amount of broken promises that the Russian MOD have made, about everything actually, we would be a little more cynical.

Russia was and remains a threat. But its very easy to do threat inflation to a quite ridiculous degree, and we dont need to. We could get into a nuclear war with just 2 battalions of infantry in contact, we dont need to believe in them having any more than that to be trouble.

[Josh]

If Russia is not producing 500 now, how exactly to they intend to meet that number in the future? Are there infrastructure investments currently being made?

[urbanoid]

3 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Maybe if they are rebuilding T90's and T90A's they could make that happen. But I dont believe its going to happen whilst they are cutting personnel at Uralvagonzavod because they cant afford them.

https://www.reuters.com/business/big-russian-tank-railcar-manufacturer-says-it-is-restructuring-cut-costs-2025-11-07/

Basically, we get handed figures by the Russian MOD, go 'oooh!' and accept them. I would hope that with the amount of broken promises that the Russian MOD have made, about everything actually, we would be a little more cynical.

Russia was and remains a threat. But its very easy to do threat inflation to a quite ridiculous degree, and we dont need to. We could get into a nuclear war with just 2 battalions of infantry in contact, we dont need to believe in them having any more than that to be trouble.

They are cutting the workforce of the civilian part of the UVZ. UVZ doesn't produce just tanks, the 'vagon' in the name means 'railcar'. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Sure, but its hardly as if the Russian military isnt dependent upon rolling stock for this war, and as we have seen, the Ukrainians have gotten increasingly proficient at targeting that too.

Its not the first time Ive read of problems at Russian defence manufacturers. There are several that have complained about late payment, even a few that I seem to recall hovered near receivership. Now thats a pretty odd place to be for a country flush with money and enjoying military victories.

[Markus Becker]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

They are cutting the workforce of the civilian part of the UVZ. UVZ doesn't produce just tanks, the 'vagon' in the name means 'railcar'. 

That reminds me they are very dependant on railways, more so than western nations and they are said to have problems due to the sanctions. 

[bojan]

Plans are plans, will see if they are real when they happen (or not).

NorKs are unkonwn, but 100 tanks per year is quite achievable.

Iran assembled ~50 T-72S1 per year.

Chinese produced ~200 Type 99 and 300-400 Type 96 per year. IDK if their current production is at that level.

Whole "west" produces ~400 tanks per year. And technological advance is no longer with "west", everyone nowadays has thermals and FCS.

 

[urbanoid]

14 minutes ago, bojan said:

Plans are plans, will see if they are real when they happen (or not).

NorKs are unkonwn, but 100 tanks per year is quite achievable.

Iran assembled ~50 T-72S1 per year.

Chinese produced ~200 Type 99 and 300-400 Type 96 per year. IDK if their current production is at that level.

Whole "west" produces ~400 tanks per year. And technological advance is no longer with "west", everyone nowadays has thermals and FCS.

 

Did you include Worst Korea? 

[urbanoid]

11 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Sure, but its hardly as if the Russian military isnt dependent upon rolling stock for this war, and as we have seen, the Ukrainians have gotten increasingly proficient at targeting that too.

Its not the first time Ive read of problems at Russian defence manufacturers. There are several that have complained about late payment, even a few that I seem to recall hovered near receivership. Now thats a pretty odd place to be for a country flush with money and enjoying military victories.

That's not the question, the question is whether they have rolling stock shortages or not. 

Given that they cut the workforce which actually produces them, my assumption would be that they have enough or maybe even more than enough. 

[Josh]

37 minutes ago, Markus Becker said:

That reminds me they are very dependant on railways, more so than western nations and they are said to have problems due to the sanctions. 

They have an abundance of rail car rolling stock.

[seahawk]

39 minutes ago, bojan said:

Plans are plans, will see if they are real when they happen (or not).

 

Plans are showing intent. If Russia plans to return the inventory to the level they inherited from the Soviet Union, it is very likely that they are also back to the ambitions of the Soviet Union. 

[bojan]

Yes, but we have to wait and see if the plans come to realization.  

41 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Did you include Worst Korea? 

Yes, they are ~1/3 of that number.

[Stuart Galbraith]

44 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

That's not the question, the question is whether they have rolling stock shortages or not. 

Given that they cut the workforce which actually produces them, my assumption would be that they have enough or maybe even more than enough. 

In isolation, I would agree. But it isn't. This seems to be the case, right across the defence industry.

https://reb.org.ua/en/news/militarizaciya-ekonomiki-rf-lokalnii-analog-boing-ta-naibilsii-pokupec-rosiiskoyi-nafti-monitoring-informprostoru-rf-36-250v6y

In the summer of 2025, the number of job openings in Russia’s defense industry fell to 34,500, compared to 52,000 in 2024. Average salaries also dropped by 10%. Analysts from the Conflict Intelligence Team believe production peaked in 2024: now most plants are repairing equipment and retaining staff, while only enterprises in the drone and missile sectors are attracting new investment.

Over three years of war, Russia’s economy has entered a state of militarization — military spending has risen to 8% of GDP, with the defense sector crowding out civilian industries. According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the Kremlin cannot cut these expenditures without triggering an economic collapse. The budget is already strained: in the first half of 2025, revenues fell by 17% due to oil and gas being sold at heavy discounts. The Finance Ministry is forced to raise taxes and introduce new levies, further pressuring businesses. Meanwhile, sanctions and lack of access to technology are crippling civilian production.

[Markus Becker]

5 hours ago, Josh said:

They have an abundance of rail car rolling stock.

And they all need regular maintenance.

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

And they all need regular maintenance.

That is probably not a factory level exercise.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well, the wheels will need re-turning, which might be.

[bojan]

Which is done in RR workshops, not in original factory. There is next to zero reason for a freight wagon  (outside very specialized ones) to ever visit factory again - all maintenance, including change of bogies and wheel honing can be done in depots.

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 hours ago, bojan said:

Which is done in RR workshops, not in original factory. There is next to zero reason for a freight wagon  (outside very specialized ones) to ever visit factory again - all maintenance, including change of bogies and wheel honing can be done in depots.

 

They do this at frontline depots?

 

 

 

 

[sunday]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 

They do this at frontline depots?

Even a third-tier Spanish railway, like the Ferrocarril de Ponferrada a Villablino of the mining company MSP, did things like that back in the 1990s.

Edited November 19, 2025 by sunday

[Stuart Galbraith]

Fair enough then. Perhaps Im taking British rail too much as an example.

[sunday]

Wheelset manufacturing is rarely, if never done, at depots, however.

[bojan]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Wheelset manufacturing is rarely, if never done, at depots, however.

Yes, it is done in factory, but replacing wheels at wheelset on wagons is typical depot level work. Depots have spares, and wagon gets whole wheelset replaced, then defective one is serviced and ends on another wagon (of the same class) that needs it's wheelset serviced.

Depending on depot some might not work all of th above, but they will send wheelsets to larger depots. There is so called "wheelset train" that enables multiple ones to be connected and towed on RR w/o being mounted on wagons, but usually wagons whose wheelsets need major work are sent to large enough depot.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx24028k7edo

A Russian spy ship has used lasers for the first time to disrupt RAF pilots tracking its activity near UK waters, the defence secretary has said.

John Healey told reporters the "deeply dangerous" move from the Yantar was being taken "extremely seriously" by the government.

He added that the vessel was north of Scotland and had entered UK waters for the second time this year during the last few weeks.

The UK would continue monitoring the ship and had "military options ready should the Yantar change course," he added.

[Sinistar]

why alliances and coalitions can maintain the illusion in easy times

when confronted with real crises is the test and exposes the basic situation:

each of the constituent members have their own national goals or needs requirements and capabilities 

simply expanding and bringing in more members does not per se make it stronger but exposes divisions within command and priorities

there is supposedly a vetting process for eu and nato expansion but you see in the way much of that was ignored in order to fast track members with their own liabilities and problems and long standing feuds between members

 

nato / the ussr-warsaw pact / whatever you like

as i try to explain

 

 

 

 

[Martineleca]

On 11/18/2025 at 4:25 PM, bojan said:

Yes, but we have to wait and see if the plans come to realization.  

Yes, they are ~1/3 of that number.

Korea has a hundred more K2s to deliver for Poland that will be the last ones exported to Europe for some time, so their production is likely to decrease unless they ramp up domestic orders. With a second factory coming online Leopard output is expected to rise significantly along with Panther which will probably have two separate plants as well, if the French and British can sort out their procurement policies and recommit to heavy forces it's quite possible just European MBT assembly could surpass the 500 unit mark annually.