U.S. House of Reps & Senate races 2022 .

[17thfabn]

Agree with you Skywalker. 

From what I saw Walker was probably the worst candidate the Republicans ran for the  House or Senate. 

Supposedly Trump pushed for Walker. But you would think wiser GOP leaders on the ground in Georgia would have seen the folly of running Walker. I was surprised it was as close as it was. 

[rmgill]

Once he was nominated it became a polling contest between the various candidates in the primary back in May. 

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/georgia/republican-primaries/senate

[Skywalkre]

There are a couple front page posts on reddit about this. 

Walker's estranged son is claiming Trump was the only one pushing for Walker to run whereas everyone else was urging him not to.

I'm not surprised it was this close.  Kemp won the governor race by a solid 7.5%.  At the end of the day a large portion of voters on both ends of the spectrum will vote for their candidate regardless of how much of a scumbag they are just so the other side's guy doesn't win (a lot of coverage I saw of this race had interviews with Walker voters who said as much).  You have a state like GA which sounds like overall it still leans R... so a large number of them still voted for Walker.  The problem was Walker was such a turnoff some of those Rs and Independents that lean R didn't vote, some of the swing voters went D, and so on.

There shouldn't be any doubt at this point that candidates matter and a lot of R losses this last election (and in my state, going back multiple elections) came from putting up scumbag candidates that only the fringe support.

[FALightFighter]

2 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

There are a couple front page posts on reddit about this. 

Walker's estranged son is claiming Trump was the only one pushing for Walker to run whereas everyone else was urging him not to.

...

If he is estranged, how would he know? It may be right, but the source makes the information questionable, at best.

[Markus Becker]

Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party. 

[Skywalkre]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party. 

What in the world...?  🤣

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Skywalkre said:

What in the world...?  🤣

I wonder if she thinks she has a better chance of reelection as an independent?  It will be interesting to see what Manchin of West Virginia does.

[Markus Becker]

What does that mean for Senate Committees when the Democrats are again down to 50 seats? Are they still going to be staffed 50-50 because no party has a majority? 

[Tim the Tank Nut]

maybe she got tired of being followed into the restroom?

[17thfabn]

1 hour ago, Markus Becker said:

What does that mean for Senate Committees when the Democrats are again down to 50 seats? Are they still going to be staffed 50-50 because no party has a majority? 

Senator Bernie Sanders runs as an independent as of late. He caucuses with the Democratic party. Same with Angus King of Maine. 

It will be interesting to see if Senator Sinema does the same. 

If she does it will make no difference in the control of the Senate. 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by 17thfabn

[Harold Jones]

She's said she won't caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans.  So if I understand it correctly, the Democrats will remain the biggest party with 50 votes plus the VP for tie breaking. Sinema will be a party of 1 and the Republicans will have 49 votes. 

[17thfabn]

Senator Sinema has had an interesting political life story.

From being a Ralph Nader supporting Green Party member to be a some what moderate / conservative Democrat.

[17thfabn]

24 minutes ago, Harold Jones said:

She's said she won't caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans. 

From a strategic stand point maybe a bad move for Sinema. She probably will get poor committee assignments. 

[Josh]

I think she's trying to position herself better for her election in 2024. She's going to have a really hard time defending as a Democrat given that most democrats dislike her now. She's almost certain to get primaried as a Democrat given the shit she's pulled and running indy bypasses that. She might also hope that going independent is a gambit to try and pick up more moderate GOP voters in the general.

[Harold Jones]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

I think she's trying to position herself better for her election in 2024. She's going to have a really hard time defending as a Democrat given that most democrats dislike her now. She's almost certain to get primaried as a Democrat given the shit she's pulled and running indy bypasses that. She might also hope that going independent is a gambit to try and pick up more moderate GOP voters in the general.

I think you're right, Joe Lieberman did essentially the same thing but he was running in a blue state as a moderate.  Sinema is a pretty liberal Democrat (voted with the party 93% of the time) running in what is still a red state. She'll need the Democrats and Republicans to nominate base pleasing candidates who turn off the middle to have a chance. 

[Markus Becker]

9 hours ago, Harold Jones said:

She's said she won't caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans.  So if I understand it correctly, the Democrats will remain the biggest party with 50 votes plus the VP for tie breaking. Sinema will be a party of 1 and the Republicans will have 49 votes. 

How had it been until now? 48 D(plus 2 I) vs 50 R? 

The Senate has a rule that says stuff can only be voted on if a majority of a committee sends to the floor. That gave the Republicans a de facto veto if no one broke rank in committee. 

[17thfabn]

12 hours ago, Markus Becker said:

How had it been until now? 48 D(plus 2 I) vs 50 R? 

 

Two "independents" Sanders, and King were defacto Democrats. They caucus and vote with the Democrats.

[Skywalkre]

This story makes less sense the more I hear about it.

It could be as simple as Sinema breaking ties with the Ds as the Ds, especially in AZ, are fed up with her.  As one reporter put it yesterday, "Senator Sinema's move today was the equivalent of breaking up with a partner before they break up with you."

The angle of this being a bid to try and help her reelection chances doesn't make much sense.  To be fair a few reporters mentioned that apparently she hasn't even said if she plans to run again (which lends credence to this could just be a move to get some breathing space from the Ds). 

If this were a move to help her reelection it'd be a bad one if he goal was simply to run as an independent.  Independents are the second largest bloc in AZ (the breakdown of R/I/D is 35/34/31 here) but independents aren't a solid, cohesive bloc with many in that camp leaning R or D.  She's also viewed unfavorably by every one of those groups by a pretty substantial margin.  Her just running as an independent would undoubtedly guarantee an R wins the next election, even if it's a terrible candidates that has lately been the staple of Rs out here for several elections.

She and the Ds should realize this which could lead to the one possible way this could be a move to help her get reelected.  David Brooks mentioned this yesterday:

Quote

It's sort of a bold move. Basically, I think, if you want one calculation, could it be this? That she thought she has no chance against Ruben Gallego in a Democratic primary.

So she goes to the Democratic Party, the national Democratic Party, and say: I'm going to run independent. I'm going to split the Democratic vote and you will get your Republican senator. So, you have got to do for me what you do for Angus King in Maine, independent Maine, and Bernie Sanders or Vermont. No run — don't run against me.

So it's basically holding the hostage — party hostage. But if there's anybody who could do it, it's her.

I don't know anything about King but I do know Sanders is pretty damn popular in VT which probably makes it easier to not have someone run D there.  No one out here really likes Sinema and I just don't know if the Ds have enough influence to stop someone from running on the D ticket against her if she chose to run as an independent.

Still... the above scenario fits with her behavior.  She's routinely held the Ds hostage for personal motives (either because she enjoys the power and/or has sold out, moreso than most politicians, to special interests).

When I first heard this story my thought was it was another move on her part to hold the Ds hostage to get what she wanted as apparently a 50-50 split means substantial changes to committee makeup vs 51-49... but then it was also announced yesterday for the purposes of committee and Senate rules she would still side with the Ds (effectively making it 51-49) but wouldn't caucus with them (as of now).  Thing is... as a D... she already wasn't effectively caucusing with them (never went to the meetings associated with this).

Just an odd story to figure out...

Edited December 10, 2022 by Skywalkre