glenn239 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Huba said: Well, in Germany at least some industries might be forced to temporarily stop production, cause there won't be enough gas, price be damned. Germany is the economic engine of the EU. You don't mess with the engine if you need your car to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikel2 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 5 hours ago, urbanoid said: Kazakhstan wants bigger share of the EU hydrocarbon market and suggests alternative routes, i.e. bypassing Russia. Yet another great win of brilliant strategist Putin and other Russian loons, thugs and loony thugs questioning Kazakh statehood, nationhood and warning about various 'consequences' of not being a good little minion of Moscow. https://www.akorda.kz/en/phone-conversation-with-president-of-the-european-council-charles-michel-464718 How long before Russian minorities in Kazakhstan need to be protected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, glenn239 said: The EU couldn't complete a pipeline to Central Asia by 2018 because Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022? Russia losing in Ukraine will make Russia allow gas to be exported to the EU? What are you talking about? If Russia loses in Ukraine because of EU/NATO activitivies, not only is the EU not going to get any LNG out of Central Asia, they will need to plan for all sorts of unfortunate industrial "setbacks" to their existing plans. Here, for example, Russia is set to switch off the gas for work on a key pipeline — and Germany fears the worst (msn.com) Russia is poised to temporarily shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline — the European Union's biggest piece of gas import infrastructure — for annual maintenance. The works have stoked fears of further disruption to gas supplies that would undermine the bloc's efforts to prepare for winter S Let's say that they lose in Ukraine and the EU decides to create transit routes from Central Asia bypassing Russia - what is Moscow going to do? Start another 'special operation'? With what? And why, so it gets the bloody nose again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, urbanoid said: Let's say that they lose in Ukraine and the EU decides to create transit routes from Central Asia bypassing Russia - what is Moscow going to do? Start another 'special operation'? With what? And why, so it gets the bloody nose again? The easiest way to stop that would be to arrange for rebels along the pipeline route to keep blowing it up, wouldn't it? Edited July 5, 2022 by glenn239 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 1 minute ago, glenn239 said: The easiest way to stop that would be to arrange for rebels along the pipeline route to keep blowing it up, wouldn't it? The rebels, somewhere deep in Siberia, can blow up future pipelines to China just as easily, or the internal Russian ones. Nobody does that shit, Russian gas flows through Ukraine even now, at least it did a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, urbanoid said: The rebels, somewhere deep in Siberia, can blow up future pipelines to China just as easily, or the internal Russian ones. Nobody does that shit, Russian gas flows through Ukraine even now, at least it did a month ago. That's two points raised in that paragraph, both interesting. First, the existing pipelines to Europe that neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces have touched. I think the reason why the Russians haven't touched it is because, as you say, they have vulnerable infrastructure elsewhere. But also, because I think the Russians hold out hope that the EU concensus against them will collapse and relations will start to normalize with Germany and France next year if the Russians don't get too carried away this year - if the Russians blow up the pipeline and the EU is in a terrible crisis for LNG next year, what would be the basis of Germany and Russia kissing and making up? But what of the Ukrainians? Why haven't they blown up the pipelines to Europe? Well, obviously, you don't bite the hand that feeds you -they want the weapons and money to keep fighting. On both sides of that equation - the Russian and the Ukrainian - it seems to me that the EU's balancing act is fairly delicate. Would have been best not to get on the tightrope in the first place I would have thought. On the second point, on who loses if the game of blowing up the energy infrastructure starts, you're suggesting that it is Russia that will lose it? You just made that up. I have no idea who would collapse first, but at first blush I would guess the EU before North America, Russia or China. Edited July 5, 2022 by glenn239 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 As of now, the consensus has been going exclusively against Russia and Russian interests. Those not too eager to support Ukraine at first are sending weapons as we speak. The US seems to have an influence on the level unseen in Europe in decades. Even as we speak, those too dependent on Russian energy are seeking alternatives, so if they buy anything from Russia in the future it will be because they can, not because they need to. With alternatives in place, Russia won't have the same position as it quite recently had likely for decades. European transit system isn't that fragile, there are multiple ways to get resources if you need it. E.g we could have bought Russian (or other gas) either directly or through Germany, now it's possible that Germany will use the same route to buy some LNG imported by us. There's a shitload of LNG terminals, especially in Southern Europe. They're rather well guarded, those are strategic facilities. So I'm really not going to join the guessing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiloMorai Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Pipeline map A-gas-pipeline-network-of-the-European-continent.jpg (3000×3000) (cdnstatic.space) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 ^ Not counting a shitload of interconnectors and LNG terminals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bojan Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 5 hours ago, Huba said: ... Companies that are export oriented and that kept competitive due to cheap RU gas are screwed though... As with covid corps are gonna make a killing, mom-and-pap businesses are going to fold. If I was conspiracy minded I would say "just as planned". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhoe Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 8 hours ago, glenn239 said: Germany is the economic engine of the EU. You don't mess with the engine if you need your car to run. As seen of late, never assume leaders aren't capable of footshooting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhoe Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 4 hours ago, bojan said: As with covid corps are gonna make a killing, mom-and-pap businesses are going to fold. If I was conspiracy minded I would say "just as planned". Operations Research lecturer; "Gee, that's like the 12th event in a row that fortuitously makes the rich richer and the middle class poorer. Random events sure seem predictable these days..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ivanhoe said: As seen of late, never assume leaders aren't capable of footshooting. Hopefully they'll switch to the other foot for this shot though - we've already shot one foot with the Covid overreaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 OF HAPPENINGS! Quote EU parliament backs labelling gas and nuclear investments as 'green' BRUSSELS, July 6 (Reuters) - The European Parliament on Wednesday backed EU rules labelling investments in gas and nuclear power plants as climate-friendly, throwing out an attempt to block the law that has exposed deep rifts between countries over how to fight climate change. The vote paves the way for the European Union proposal to pass into law, unless 20 of the bloc's 27 member states decide to oppose the move, which is seen as very unlikely. https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhoe Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, urbanoid said: OF HAPPENINGS! https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ Give it time; during a global recession, the EU will eventually declare coal as "plant-based energy." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ivanhoe said: Give it time; during a global recession, the EU will eventually declare coal as "plant-based energy." EU taxonomy doesn't stop anyone from investing in sources described as 'non-green'. I think Germany fired up some of their old coal power plants recently, due to gas shortages. The most important part here is nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhoe Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, urbanoid said: The most important part here is nuclear. Given the number of consecutive 100F days we've had so far in my AO, I think Europe needs to build a whole bunch of nuke plants, so 1st Cav and 1st Armored can come confiscate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Avatar vindicated, at last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 22 hours ago, urbanoid said: Our industries ran on Russian gas AND remained both competetive and profitable while we were paying twice as much as the Germans. Chinese industry runs almost exclusively on LNG delivered to their ports, or at least that was the case a few years ago. I would say make a deal with the US, but I don't see the Biden admin fast tracking ANYTHING that makes sense. Get your ducks in a row and help some developing nation get their natural gas extraction/delivery system going in exchange for a sweet long term deal perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 And right on schedule, Russia shuts down the Caspian Consortium pipeline, Russian court orders Caspian pipeline to suspend for thirty days (msn.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 12 hours ago, Ivanhoe said: As seen of late, never assume leaders aren't capable of footshooting. It's like they're all runner's up for the Upper Class twit award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bojan Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, Ivanhoe said: Operations Research lecturer; "Gee, that's like the 12th event in a row that fortuitously makes the rich richer and the middle class poorer. Random events sure seem predictable these days..." And we also have considerable shitshow with farmers in Netherland (large protests due the government mandating 75% reduction of cattle fond in the middle of the incoming food crisis)... Due the "green" concerns. Suicide by stupidity. Edited July 6, 2022 by bojan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, rmgill said: It's like they're all runner's up for the Upper Class twit award. At least in the Monty Python skit they were only harming themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbanoid Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 5 hours ago, rmgill said: I would say make a deal with the US, but I don't see the Biden admin fast tracking ANYTHING that makes sense. Get your ducks in a row and help some developing nation get their natural gas extraction/delivery system going in exchange for a sweet long term deal perhaps? The US administration reacted fast, announced tha the US will increase gas exports to Europe... and it already did. Last year the US exported less than 40% of the gas it sold to Europe, now it's something like 75%. Certain evil Orange Man offered pretty much the same thing a few years ago, to lessen the dependence on Russia, but most of potential EU buyers weren't interested. The deals are up to individual states, we don't buy as the EU. Poland has been buying LNG for years, mostly from Qatar and US. When Russia stopped the supply in April we weren't worried, we've been preparing for it for years, and remember that for us the starting point was an almost total dependence on Russia - 100% of imports and ~2/3 of usage (we extract some of our own gas). But the point is that we have an LNG terminal, built a decade ago despite protests from Germany, which still doesn't have even one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BansheeOne Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 hours ago, urbanoid said: But the point is that we have an LNG terminal, built a decade ago despite protests from Germany, which still doesn't have even one. There were? Never heard of that, and upon looking I only find that any cross-border environmental impact had to be ruled out on the German side before the EU granted subsidies from the funds which also enabled construction and economical operation of terminals and connecting pipelines in Lithuania, Croatia, Greece etc. to diversify supply. I also don't think the problem is a lack of terminal capacities in Europe; before Ukraine, the spare capacities amounted to pretty much exactly the volume of Russian gas imports already (in fact critics used to complain the EU was uselessly pouring money into redundant terminals to subsidize import of evil American fracking gas while consumption was actually going to drop - another prediction that didn't age too well). AIUI the concern is rather that disposable global LNG supply might not be sufficient to fill those capacities in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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