Green Energy, and the German Grid, from: Kiev Is Burning

[BansheeOne]

Helpfully, October so far has been the fifth-warmest on record. In fact for the start of next week, up to a summerly 27 centigrade are predicted for southern Germany. That's probably one reason why prices for next-day gas contracts have unusually dropped to as little as 60 percent of the slower-descending next-month contracts at the regional energy exchange. Hooray for climate change! If it didn't exist like some say, we'd need to invent it. 😅

Meanwhile:

Quote

Polish operator says Russian oil pipeline to Germany 'restored'

18h ago

The Druzhba pipeline carrying Russian oil from Siberia to Central Europe suffered a leak earlier this week. The Polish operator said it was still investigating the cause of the leak.

The Druzhba pipeline, which transfers Russian crude oil to Germany and other Central European countries, has been fixed after a leak was reported earlier this week.

Polish state-run pipeline operator PERN said the pipeline was now fully operational.

"PERN's technical services restored the full functionality of the damaged pipeline used to deliver crude oil to the company's German customers on Saturday," Reuters news agency quoted PERN as saying in a statement.

'No sabotage' suspected

The operator stressed it was still investigating the cause of the leak, which was reported on Tuesday, but said there was no reason to suspect sabotage.

"Based on initial assessments, and the manner and way that the pipeline is formed, there are no hints as of now of outsider tampering," Germany's dpa news agency quoted PERN as saying.

[...]

https://m.dw.com/en/polish-operator-says-russian-oil-pipeline-to-germany-restored/a-63452852

[bojan]

6 hours ago, rmgill said:

To that end we need to start stock piling transformers and generator heads of specific sizes to mitigate that issue. 

Only countries ever to have even 10% reserves of large power transformers were USSR in the '80s and Swiss at about same timeframe. None else has ever came close to even 5%, and most others had less than 1%.

Too bulky, often have to be assembled on site, too expensive to "just" sit around, can not be "just forgotten" in storage etc, etc. IOW, most countries are too cheap.

 

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Germany extends lifetime of all 3 remaining nuclear plants

31m ago

Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition wrangled over nuclear power but the German Chancellor decided that the plants should keep running through winter.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday ordered Germany's three remaining nuclear to remain in operation until April to fend off a possible energy crunch.

The German leader has asked the economy, environment and finance ministries to create the legal basis for the plants to remain open. 

"The legal basis will be created to allow the operation of the nuclear power plants Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland beyond December 31, 2022 until April 15, 2023," Scholz said in a statement.

Scholz also requested that the ministries present an "ambitious" law to increase energy efficiency, and put into law an agreement to phase out coal by 2030.

Germany planned to complete a phase-out of nuclear power by the end of 2022, but a energy supply crunch following Russian gas cuts  has caused lengthy debate over keeping nuclear power plants at the ready. 

Political disagreement over nuclear power

There has been a disagreement in the governing coalition over the lifespan of nuclear power plants.

On Friday, the Greens agreed to keep two nuclear power plants in southern Germany in reserve until April but it wanted to shut down a third power plant in the northwestern Emsland district by the end of the year.

The FDP wanted to keep all three plants open until 2024.

[...]

https://m.dw.com/en/germany-extends-lifetime-of-all-3-remaining-nuclear-plants/a-63466196

[BansheeOne]

On 10/16/2022 at 1:53 PM, BansheeOne said:

Helpfully, October so far has been the fifth-warmest on record. In fact for the start of next week, up to a summerly 27 centigrade are predicted for southern Germany. That's probably one reason why prices for next-day gas contracts have unusually dropped to as little as 60 percent of the slower-descending next-month contracts at the regional energy exchange. Hooray for climate change! If it didn't exist like some say, we'd need to invent it. 😅

 

To wit:

[DB]

Personal experience is that I haven't had to put the CH on so far this month, whereas my normal practice is that it goes on at the start of October. This is admittedly partly because I've taken to wearing a jumper, but mainly because the outside temperature is still well above 10 degrees (14.5 as I type), and the flat is maintaining a steady 4-5 degree margin above that.

In more broad news, as expected the increase in prices results in more exploratory work.

https://www.ft.com/content/35cd36fe-1272-4f88-8885-b84f6563c4f6

The claim from an analyst that the prices have nothing to do with the Ukraine war is absurd, and there is some dispute in the comments about the actual prices of North Sea gas (along the lines of the chart shown by Banshee above) , so as usual pinches of salt are needed when reading articles.

[BansheeOne]

Allegedly a picture of the damage on Nord Stream 1 at 80 meters depth, published by Swedish newspaper "Expressen":

Meanwhile, too much LNG:

Quote

October 18, 2022 8:00 AM GMT+2 Last Updated 6 hours ago

Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe's coasts unable to unload

By Marwa Rashad and Belén Carreño

LONDON/MADRID, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Dozens of ships carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) circling off the coasts of Spain unable to secure slots to unload have prompted grid operators for the country to warn they may have to suspend loading to deal with this "exceptional situation".

Europe is facing an energy supply squeeze as Russia has progressively cut gas flows after the West imposed sanctions in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February.

The region has had to find alternative supplies, including LNG, but the arrival of multiple cargoes of the superchilled fuel has exposed Europe's lack of "regasification" capacity, as plants that convert the seaborne fuel back to gas are operating at maximum limit.

If the backlog is not cleared soon those ships may start looking for alternative ports outside Europe to offload their cargo.

There are more than 35 LNG-laden vessels drifting off Spain and around the Mediterranean, with at least eight vessels anchored off the Bay of Cadiz alone, traders, analysts and sources at LNG terminals familiar with the situation said on Monday.

Spain is offering just six slots at its regasification terminals for cargoes this week, an industry source said, less than a fifth of the number of vessels queuing off its coasts. The country has six terminals in total.

In a statement issued late on Monday and entitled "declaration of exceptional operational situation", Spain's national gas grid operator Enagas said it may have to reject unloads of LNG due to overcapacity at its terminals.

It added that high occupation levels at the country's regasification plants was expected to remain at least until the first week of November.

There are also LNG vessels at anchor near other European countries which could mean dozens more are waiting, one source with knowledge of the situation said.

"Floating storage levels in LNG shipping is at all time high levels with slightly more than 2.5million tonnes tied up in floating storage," said Oystein Kalleklev, chief executive of shipowner FLEX LNG Management.

The shortage of regasification plants, or pipelines connecting countries that have those facilities to other European markets, means that the LNG floating offshore cannot be used. "We have seen a high number of cargoes waiting offshore in southern Spain or circling in the Med, as well as some cargoes waiting off the UK," said Alex Froley, LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.

"Floating storage levels in LNG shipping is at all time high levels with slightly more than 2.5million tonnes tied up in floating storage," said Oystein Kalleklev, chief executive of shipowner FLEX LNG Management.

The shortage of regasification plants, or pipelines connecting countries that have those facilities to other European markets, means that the LNG floating offshore cannot be used. "We have seen a high number of cargoes waiting offshore in southern Spain or circling in the Med, as well as some cargoes waiting off the UK," said Alex Froley, LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.

The bottlenecks have been compounded by lower industrial demand as Europe's economy slows as well as lower-than-expected domestic consumption in Spain due to unseasonably warm weather.

ICIS's Froley said another reason for the congestion is that prices are expected to rise as winter approaches and heating demand increases, so some ships are waiting to sell their cargoes at a higher price that can offset the extra shipping costs incurred by sitting offshore.

Price of an LNG cargo delivered in late November or early December is around $2/mmBtu higher than current prices.

"This strategy partly works because some companies have flexibility in their shipping portfolios due to outages like the closure of the U.S. Freeport plant," Froley said.

He was referring to the second-largest U.S. exporter of LNG that halted operations in June after an explosion and fire.

"If more cargoes were being produced companies might not be able to leave their ships waiting around so long," he said.

[...]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dozens-lng-laden-ships-queue-off-europes-coasts-unable-unload-2022-10-17/

[BansheeOne]

And a short video clip. Of note, the imagery is not from the official investigations, but commercial.

 

[Josh]

39 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

And a short video clip. Of note, the imagery is not from the official investigations, but commercial.

 

Too fuzzy to really draw any conclusions, but one thing I will say is the cut looks far cleaner than I would have guessed. It also looks like the explosion was internal, which would limit the number of countries with that kind of access. Would love some better pics or for the authorities to provide some initial details, but I understand they probably don't want rampant speculation and will wait until a full investigation is completed.

[urbanoid]

What is this 'fiery' bit inside the pipeline?

[BansheeOne]

I think that's just the inner coat of (anti-corrosion?) paint reflecting the drone lights.

What it looks to me is like an entire segment was blown off the seabed and broke off at the welds. Of course for all we know, the official investigation might have cut off the damaged segment for closer inspection ashore; there's just so much lack of context.

Slightly better video:

 

[Colin]

Meanwhile off the coast of Europe

https://gcaptain.com/dozens-of-lng-carriers-back-up-off-european-ports-waiting-to-unload/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-bcbb97bc69-139922301&mc_cid=bcbb97bc69&mc_eid=c9f44d7f09

[sunday]

We discussed the lack of regasification terminals in Europe a while ago.

[BansheeOne]

Which I think weird. Back when Germany started planning for some of its own while Russian gas was still flowing, critics pointed out that existing European LNG terminals already had vast unused capacities. I looked it up then and worked out that those capacities pretty much equaled the share of European gas imports from Russia, so you should just be able to substitute the former for the latter. But I guess not all at once.

[rmgill]

How much gas was being shipped from Russia? 

[urbanoid]

32 minutes ago, rmgill said:

How much gas was being shipped from Russia? 

Nord Stream 1 had a capacity of 55 bln m3, Nord Stream 2 the same, but it was never certified. Theoretical capacity of one remaining NS2 line is 27,5 bln m3.

Yamal exports (through Poland) have ceased, because we declined to pay in roubles. Exports via Ukraine are reportedly at some ~20% of the capacity and may actually cease anytime. There's also a southern route via Turkey into the Balkans and it operates normally.

Total Russian gas exports to the EU in 2021 were around 150 billion m3. The decline will be by at least 50 billion m3 for 2022, maybe more.

[BansheeOne]

And there's this pre-war statement:

Quote

Liquefied natural gas

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) diversifies EU gas supply sources, making countries more resourceful and resilient.

The EU is the biggest importer of natural gas in the world. Diversification of supply sources is therefore very important both for energy security and for competitiveness.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas, predominantly methane, converted to liquid form for ease of storage or transport.

[...]

In 2021, 13 EU countries imported a total of 80 billion cubic metres (bcm, gas equivalent) of LNG, 4% less than the previous year. LNG imports made up 20% of total extra-EU gas imports in 2021. The biggest LNG importers in the EU were Spain (21.3 bcm), France (18.3 bcm), Italy (9.3 bcm), the Netherlands (8.7 bcm) and Belgium (6.5 bcm).

[...]

Production and imports

Around 10% of the EU's gas needs are currently met by domestic production. The rest is imported, mainly from Russia (41%), Norway (24%) and Algeria (11%), beyond LNG sources, as 2021 data shows.

In recent years the share of LNG has stabilised, accounting for around 20% of imports in 2021, with most of these coming from the United States (28%), followed by Qatar and Russia (both around 20%), Nigeria (14%) and Algeria (11%).

Qatar is currently by far the world's largest supplier of LNG, at around 170 bcm per year. Other large (>20 bcm) suppliers include Australia, the United States, Nigeria, Malaysia, Russia and Indonesia. Global liquefaction is set to further increase dramatically as new plants in the United States and Australia will come on stream over the next few years.

Infrastructures

The EU's overall LNG import capacity is significant (around 157 billion cubic metres in regasified form per year) – enough to meet around 40% of total current gas demand. However, in the regions of South Eastern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic, many countries have less access to LNG and/or are heavily dependent on a single gas supplier, and would be hardest hit in a supply crisis. It is important to make sure that such countries have access to a regional gas hub with a diverse range of supply sources, including LNG.

[...]

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/liquefied-natural-gas_en#:~:text=The EU's overall LNG import,of total current gas demand.

By that count, total regasification capacity was about equal to the Russian share, but about half of it was already being used. So Russian gas dropping out completely would leave about a 20 percent gap.

Edited October 19, 2022 by BansheeOne

[rmgill]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Nord Stream 1 had a capacity of 55 bln m3, Nord Stream 2 the same, but it was never certified. Theoretical capacity of one remaining NS2 line is 27,5 bln m3.

I meant shipped. Not piped. 

[MiloMorai]

Maybe Europe should look south and not east for NG.

Mozambique: ISIS-linked militants are threatening huge natural gas reserves | CNN

[BansheeOne]

On 9/20/2022 at 6:28 PM, BansheeOne said:

The 95 percent mark has repeatedly been cited to equal total national consumption in January and February of this year. That is, if on the stroke of New Year 2023 all gas import in addition to the Russian deliveries was cut - from Norway, the Netherlands, and LNG via the Netherlands, Belgium, France and the two German floating terminals planned to commence operations around that date - and there was no reduction in use over last winter, we'd run out two months later.

That's not going to happen of course, and indeed the projections of the Federal Grid Agency for storage buildup with reduced input from Nord Stream 1 are so far turning out to be slightly pessimistic. Per simulations, with delivery cut to 40 percent from June we should have barely made the 85 percent capacity mark at the planned 1 October date even with the otherwise most favorable assumptions; if cut to 20, we should have just missed even that.

In reality, supply was 40 percent for two thirds of July with a scheduled ten-day downtime for maintenance in between, dropped to 20 at the end of the month, and zero at the end of August. Yet here we are on track to reach the ultimate 95 percent target four weeks early. So the combination of alternate supply and savings has definitely exceeded expectations.

The agency has a revised projection out, based upon the divergences from expectations so far:

- 95 percent storage capacity target has been exceeded despite complete Nord Stream 1 cutoff in late August;

- imports from Norway, Benelux and recently, France, have all increased by a combined 62 to a total of 126 GWh/h;

- exports to Austria, the Czech Republic and France decreased after the Nord Stream 1 cutoff by a combined 58 to a total of 29 GWh/h, and should stay on a low level for now at current weather projections;

- a third floating LNG beyond the two already planned is likely to assume operations in Lubmin on the Baltic coast by the change of the year at the latest, increasing annual imports by three bcm and improving supply for the Northeast as well as the Southeast German region via the connecting pipes for Nord Stream 1.

However, over the next months imports are likely to decrease and exports to increase as heating needs go up across Europe. They therefore investigate four scenarios, all assuming gas storage to start being used in late October and domestic consumption being reduced by 20 percent over last year:

- If the delta between imports and exports drops from the current 97 to 78 GWh/h in winter at average expected temperatures, storage will reduce to 54 percent capacity by early/middle of March. At which point buildup starts again, and there should be no problems even for winter 2023/24.

- If the same delta is applied to a sub-average winter with a cold spell like in February 2012, capacity will be at 47 percent in March, still no problem.

- If the delta drops from 97 to 51 GWh/h in a normal winter, storage keeps being used until the middle of April and then will be almost depleted for practical purposes, spelling trouble for the 2013/14 heating period.

- If the same delta is applied to a cold winter, storage would approach depletion by the end of February, causing acute gas shortages even before the end of the current heating period.

Edited October 22, 2022 by BansheeOne

[urbanoid]

Natural gas prices on European markets have gone down to pre-Feb 24 levels, despite inoperable NS and very modest amount of Russian gas flowing to the EU in general. Dozens of LNG-carrying ships are awaiting to be unloaded, but... gas storage sites are almost full. So much for 'Europe freezing'.

 

[rmgill]

Depends on rate of use, rate of fill and storage capacity.  

[urbanoid]

Prognosis is generally good. For a time (23.08 - 12.10) Grupa Azoty (biggest chemical concern in Poland, one of the bigger ones in Europe) suspended production of fertilizer - not due to gas shortage, but very high prices, now production has been resumed. At least Poland is now completely independent from Russian gas, thanks to Baltic Pipe, LNG terminal (being expanded) and domestic production. Our storage capacity is rather low (52 days), but gas is flowing continuously from different directions.

Prognosis for Germany is also good, as Banshee explained above. German storage capacity is much bigger than Poland's, for ~75-80 days IIRC, their gas usage is (or at least was) 4-4,5 times higher. Both countries are 'almost full' at the moment.

 

[BansheeOne]

Of the four scenarios listed by the German regulator, I think no. 3 is most likely, where we have no problems this winter, but may struggle to build up the same reserves for the one in 2013/14 with Russian gas entirely out of the equation next year. That's because even if we'll have a rather mild winter like the last ten years (once more, thanks for climate change!) and a small delta reduction between imports and exports, we may not meet the 20 percent saving goal assumed for all cases.

[rmgill]

Green energy has a lot of dependancies...
 

 

[sunday]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

Green energy has a lot of dependancies...
 

 

Nice thread, but low on quantitative information.

There is a minor mistake, considering that long range power transport lines are made of copper, and those are made of steel and aluminum.