Green Energy, and the German Grid, from: Kiev Is Burning

[BansheeOne]

12 hours ago, sunday said:

An explanation of the explosions in the pipelines by the son of an oil&gas engineer. Sounds reasonable.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Interesting point. He's rather opinionated and lax on details specific to Nord Stream itself, but the effect clearly exists. Now Nord Stream isn't your basic land pipeline; these are tubes of 27-41 mm wall strength additionally encased in 60-150 mm of concrete, which is why everyone's thinking you need a pretty hefty explosive charge to destroy it.

But I guess a sudden internal force buildup of sufficient strength will blow any containment in the end. Which would be a terrible disappointment for everyone who has already settled on a politically convenient perpetrator if it was found to have happened that way. OTOH, obviously the effect could also have been triggered intentionally rather than accidentally as described.

[urbanoid]

I wonder if some unexploded stuff is found near the remaining line.

[glenn239]

15 hours ago, DB said:

I think that you're forgetting the underlying Russian premise that every relationship is a zero-sum game. There is no concept of mutually beneficial relationships, one is the master that takes and the other is the slave that must give.

 The Russian doctrine under Putin seems purely transactional, becoming zero sum only under pressure.

The West defines relations by ideological considerations, (rule of law, globalist and democratic principles, etc.), which because Russia violates all of these with its actions in its near abroad, forces the West to adapt a zero sum outlook towards Russia.

 

 

[DB]

The only pressure on Russia is manufactured by itself, so my argument stands. The Russians simply do not appear to have a mindset that encompasses mutual benefit as a concept. If the "West" is "winning", then they think that they must be "losing". It's the same bullshit that sees the argument that if rich people getting richer then less rich people must be getting poorer - a manifest untruth that is a core of left wing dependency politics. I see the Russian leadership using exactly this approach, playing to a carefully cultivated national inferiority complex to keep people in line. unfortunately, it seems that 35 years of exposure to a more Western lifestyle wasn't sufficient to overcome the indoctrination. 

Until Russians see that they can win without the need for someone else to lose, they will always be losers.

[lucklucky]

1 hour ago, DB said:

The only pressure on Russia is manufactured by itself, so my argument stands. The Russians simply do not appear to have a mindset that encompasses mutual benefit as a concept. If the "West" is "winning", then they think that they must be "losing". It's the same bullshit that sees the argument that if rich people getting richer then less rich people must be getting poorer - a manifest untruth that is a core of left wing dependency politics. I see the Russian leadership using exactly this approach, playing to a carefully cultivated national inferiority complex to keep people in line. unfortunately, it seems that 35 years of exposure to a more Western lifestyle wasn't sufficient to overcome the indoctrination. 

Until Russians see that they can win without the need for someone else to lose, they will always be losers.

I agree to that: War is a zero sum game and Russia did not changed, war is still their preferred business.

Their power always comes from the spade not from economic creation.  Strangely they then seem surprised that many around them just choose to be allied to the other guy . If the deal is always a clear master-servant relationship because you basically are only able to deal with war, weapons and natural resources, then it is expected that countries with other cultural and economic frame prefer that other guy 5000nm away. 

They  have great scientists, mathematicians, in Czar times world renowned artists but they unable to transfer that to economic power.  They could have learned from China but it is like Russian culture of power sucks every creativity and alternative power away.

In Cold War they could only export weapons and natural resources, they even had to knock on door that symbol of a capitalist family Agnelli to get a civilian car design for Lada...   

Still the same today, they only export weapons and natural resources. 

[Colin]

8 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Interesting point. He's rather opinionated and lax on details specific to Nord Stream itself, but the effect clearly exists. Now Nord Stream isn't your basic land pipeline; these are tubes of 27-41 mm wall strength additionally encased in 60-150 mm of concrete, which is why everyone's thinking you need a pretty hefty explosive charge to destroy it.

But I guess a sudden internal force buildup of sufficient strength will blow any containment in the end. Which would be a terrible disappointment for everyone who has already settled on a politically convenient perpetrator if it was found to have happened that way. OTOH, obviously the effect could also have been triggered intentionally rather than accidentally as described.

It will be very easy to determine if it was internal or external. 

[Ivanhoe]

[Ivanhoe]

[DKTanker]

8 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Now Nord Stream isn't your basic land pipeline; these are tubes of 27-41 mm wall strength additionally encased in 60-150 mm of concrete, which is why everyone's thinking you need a pretty hefty explosive charge to destroy it.

We build high pressure water pipe of the same nature.  The difference is we build the pipe to keep the water in, these pipe are built to keep the water out.

[rmgill]

Whats the pressure diff between the sea floor and the pipe NG internals? 

[Ssnake]

At 20m water depth, 7bar water pressure vs 300 bar internal pressure, estimated on a napkin.

[rmgill]

Is that the extent of the depth along the route of the pipelines? just 20 meters/65 foot depth? 

Edited October 3, 2022 by rmgill

[DKTanker]

7 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Is that the extent of the depth along the route of the pipelines? just 20 meters/65 foot depth? 

Closer to 100 meters. Says goggle earth. 

[jmsaari]

The places of ruptures, yeah, they're around 75-100 m depth. Hydrostatic pressure grows about 1 bar per every 10 meters, so 7-10 bar outside pressure.

Design pressure for pipes are from 220 bar close to compressor station to 178 bar at the other end according to https://www.nord-stream.com/download/document/10/?language=en

News said actual pressure was around 100 bar when explosions took place.

[sunday]

6 hours ago, Ssnake said:

At 20m water depth, 7bar water pressure vs 300 bar internal pressure, estimated on a napkin.

At 20m water depth, 2bar is more likely.

[BansheeOne]

Nord Stream 1 has now stopped bubbling, too. Denmark intends to have a joint investigation with Sweden and Germany. Russia also has the right to investigate by the law of the seas since the pipeline is Gazprom property in international waters (albeit the Danish and Swedish EEZs), but in an unsurprising display of mutual distrust, the Western parties don't want any Russians mucking around the scene with or without official cooperation. Cue competing investigations and possible naval confrontations like after the KAL 007 shootdown.

[Josh]

On 10/2/2022 at 5:13 AM, urbanoid said:

I wonder if some unexploded stuff is found near the remaining line.

I've been wondering this exactly since the explosions were reported; it seems odd to save exactly one pipe. Completely blowing the pipelines, or else one pipeline or the other (forcing the use of NS2 or else demonstrating a threat to NS-1, depending on the guilty party or motivation)  makes sense. Having one pipe survive seems like an odd choice if intentional, which makes me wonder if there's still a live mine against a pipe in the baltic.

[Josh]

22 hours ago, Colin said:

It will be very easy to determine if it was internal or external. 

But it could easily have been both internal and intentional if Russia (or even Germany) was the party that blew it up.

[BansheeOne]

Well at the very least, an internal cause would effectively reduce the list of suspects, intentional or not.

I also suspect the parts of the lines outside the stricken points are already being checked for any residual threats.

[DB]

Some UK data on gas, both reserves and the possible/likely problems this winter.

The UK does not have significant gas reserves. One facility (that Stuart has already mentioned) was shut down in 2017 as the operator and regulator agreed that it was not possible to operate it safely/economically (not sure which). Strangely, now the risk/benefit analysis is changed, it's being (partially) reactivated.

A second facility is based near Northwich, and is a salt basin storage system (the clue is in the name of the town).

In total, the storage volume is pitiful compared to Germany's, even if the closed facility was fully reopened, so it's closure was no material change to the UK's apparent strategic vulnerability to "on demand" supply.

The UK current (as I type) power mix is 57.6% gas, 13.7% nuclear, 2.6% coal, 21.5% wind, 5.8% solar, 2.5% biomass and various other minor contributors and in and outfeeds via international interconnects.

(https://grid.iamkate.com/)

The following article essentially states that the UK is likely to face a problem with winter gas supplies because of the availability of gas internationally due to the increased competition from those places that now cannot get Russian gas. This isn't a big surprise.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63118574

What interested me was the penalties for failures of electricity suppliers to meet their required generation targets. IF the value of £276 million per day is correct, then this begs an important question:

If they go out of business within days of failing to supply as they are bankrupted by the penalties, why have they not made better efforts to ensure continuity of supply?

The answer is obvious, really - the idea that a private company can be held truly accountable for the failure of national infrastructure is a lie. ultimately, government will be held responsible and the private company will fold, shareholders will lose the value of the asset but will be free to retain all the profits taken due to failing to properly assess the risk to their supply. See also the systematic selling off of reservoirs by privatised water companies because selling land assets made money whereas maintaining reservoirs was a cost centre.

I'm not sure how one can fix this without a level of government control over the private company's business that would instantly be called out here as "Fascist", and (re)nationalisation of the infrastructure would be called "Communist"...

[bd1]

4 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Nord Stream 1 has now stopped bubbling, too. Denmark intends to have a joint investigation with Sweden and Germany. Russia also has the right to investigate by the law of the seas since the pipeline is Gazprom property in international waters (albeit the Danish and Swedish EEZs), but in an unsurprising display of mutual distrust, the Western parties don't want any Russians mucking around the scene with or without official cooperation. Cue competing investigations and possible naval confrontations like after the KAL 007 shootdown.

 

literally word-by-word the reasoning why estonia refused to let nordstream through our waters. 🙂

[sunday]

2 hours ago, DB said:

I'm not sure how one can fix this without a level of government control over the private company's business that would instantly be called out here as "Fascist", and (re)nationalisation of the infrastructure would be called "Communist"...

Making peace with Russia?

[Strannik]

Russians bought Jeffrey Sachs

 

 

[Strannik]

I'd like to hear the "usual suspects" theories on why would Russia blow up the "other Russian pipelines"

Any German can do?  🤣

 

 

[Ivanhoe]

With Brennan's claims and $8, I can buy a grande mocha latte chino.