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Gas Leaks in the Baltic

Berlin Not Ruling Out Possible Attack on Nord Stream Pipelines

The German government has expressed concern about Europe’s gas infrastructure following pressure drops in two Baltic Sea pipelines. Security of other plants is being urgently reviewed.

By Alexander Preker, Gerald Traufetter, Stefan Schultz und Claus Hecking

27.09.2022, 15.25 Uhr

Following sudden pressure drops in the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines on Monday, there is concern in the German government that this could be a targeted attack on European gas infrastructure and gas markets.

Three out of four of the pipes belonging to the Baltic Sea pipeline network are damaged, an inside source told DER SPIEGEL. Officials do not believe it is a coincidence, and that it could be a plot to inject uncertainty into European gas markets.

According to information obtained by DER SPIEGEL, the security plans for other pipelines and gas supply facilities are now the focus of urgent review.

Although the Nord Stream 2 pipeline never went into operation after its completion and was only filled with natural gas once, gas did continue to flow from Russia to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline until the beginning of September. The operator of Nord Stream 1 also reported a drop in pressure on Monday after the leak at Nord Stream 2 became known.

According to a spokesman, both pipelines are affected. Capacity sank to zero in an unplanned manner, according to market information that operators must report.

Security Experts Are not Ruling Out Sabotage

The Danish navy has stated that there are indications of sabotage. If it was an attack, officials believe that it could only have been conducted by a state actor, given the technical effort required.

Poland suspects Russian provocations behind the mysterious pipeline leaks. "Unfortunately, our eastern neighbor is pursuing an aggressive policy all the time," said Poland's Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz.

Russia also isn't ruling out the possibility it was sabotage. "No option can be ruled out right now," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked if sabotage could be the reason for the pressure drop.

As a consequence of the leaks, the Danish maritime authority has set up restricted zones for shipping traffic near the Danish island of Bornholm. Danish authorities have discovered a total of three leaks along the gas pipelines. There are reportedly two leaks at Nord Stream 1 northeast of the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm and one at Nord Stream 2 southeast of the island, the Danish Energy Authority said. In the case of Nord Stream 1, one leak is in Danish waters and the other is in Swedish waters. The Nord Stream 2 leak is located in Danish waters.

Investigations are currently underway, said a spokesman for Nord Stream AG, which is responsible for Nord Stream 1. No information is available yet regarding the extent of the damage. In the area around Bornholm, the spokesperson said, the pipelines are located about 70 meters below the water surface. According to Nord Stream 2 spokesman Ulrich Lissek, the pipelines are laid in such a way that simultaneous damage to several pipelines, for example by a single ship accident, is highly unlikely. Asked if he was aware of similar incidents involving offshore pipelines, he said: "I’ve never heard of any.”

An expert on underwater robots also referred to the extremely high safety standards and the robust construction of the pipelines. From his point of view, deliberate manipulation is the only plausible explanation. The expert says the authorities will now take a closer look using diving robots.

[...]

On Europe's gas exchanges, prices rose noticeably again on Tuesday after weeks of downward movement. At around 2 p.m., the price of a megawatt hour of natural gas for delivery in October hit 192.50 euros on the Dutch reference market TTF, around 10 percent higher than the day before.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany-not-ruling-out-possible-attack-on-nord-stream-pipelines-a-8a78ed79-1e7e-4653-9ab1-9dbeeea0963d

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"Spiegel" also reports that the German government received a CIA warning of an attack on the pipelines in advance. Which the camp already busy promoting the "it was the Americans" theory will doubtlessly seize on. 😁

Meanwhile:

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Germany plans to keep 2 nuclear power plants in operation

1h ago

Two of Germany's 3 remaining power plants will remain on standby until April 2023, Berlin announced.

Germany will keep two of its remaining three nuclear power plants running until at least April, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday.

Habeck said the two nuclear reactors located in the southern states of the country, Isar 2 in Bavaria, and Neckarwestheim in Baden-Württemberg, would continue running until mid-April. 

Officials in Germany earlier this month said they would stick to their plans of shutting nuclear plants by end of this year, but would keep the option of reactivating them in case of a severe energy crunch.

Germany shut down three nuclear reactors in 2021, and the shutting the remaining three would officially mark the end of the nuclear phase-out for domestic energy production that had first begun under former Chancellor Angela Merkel's rule.

What did Habeck say?

"The operators will now make all the preparations needed for the southern German nuclear power plants to produce electricity in winter and beyond the end of the year, naturally in compliance with safety regulations," Habeck said.

Habeck said they would still need to make a decision about extending the lifespan of the power plants beyond April, and that decision would be dependent on the nuclear power plant situation in France.

"Today, I have to say that the data from France suggests that we will then call up and use the reserve," Habeck said.

France relies heavily on nuclear power to meet its electricity needs, but its nuclear fleet, the largest in Europe, has come under scrutiny lately.

A great deal of repair work at nuclear power stations have taken many of its nuclear reactors offline, and sent France's nuclear output to a record a 30-year low, exacerabting Europe's energy crisis.

Will Germany face an energy crisis this winter?

The Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection said earlier this month that it was concerned about Germany's electricity situation ahead of winter.

Germany, which heavily relied on Russian natural gas until the war in Ukraine, has been looking at alternative energy supplies.

Germany's biggest energy supplier, RWE, for example, announced Sunday that it signed a deal with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for the delivery of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) by end of December.

The announcement came as Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar over the weekeend. 

[...]

https://m.dw.com/en/germany-plans-to-keep-2-nuclear-power-plants-in-operation/a-63258734

Posted

Is it something that really requires a new thread? I think we've all posted all the info there is.

WAG, I'd think this would have to be a Baltic nation, since the Danish straights are are generally a dozen km at the widest points and have bridges, tunnels, and cities all around them. If it was a party from outside the Baltic, I can't imagine it not being filmed coming and going (assuming it ever left again).

As for who would benefit - I don't really see how anyone would, at least enough to risk being caught. If it is a NATO nation, then the sanctions likely fragment and NATO itself is likely in turmoil. If it were Ukraine, then if they were caught presumably the military donations get curtailed (assuming they could even arrange to make this happen on the other side of Europe). Russia I suppose has the short term gain of pushing up gas prices on pipelines that either they refuse to use or Germany refuses to use, so no harm done but minimal gain. The only thing that makes sense to me is that it is a warning shot across the bow from Russia to Europe as Glenn suggested.

Posted

The breaches in the pipeline are quite real, yes. The photo I can't confirm but I've see it listed as being from a Danish F-16; there's a German warship on AIS that should be on site within hours if it isn't already there.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

Is it real?

image.thumb.png.67e2bfcbdee2ffe83c39aa70a08b10a3.png

Dang, he was not supposed to say it out loud 🤯 OK, the gig it is up, it was PL and US.

On a serious note though, there's a reason why this guy is out of country politics -  he's a bit quick to talk, and a bit slow to think.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

It happens on the same day a new Norwegian pipeline opens. It's self evidently is a threat, and not from the US.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/baltic-pipe-opens-in-poland/2-1-1321534?zephr_sso_ott=WkyNJT

What’s to stop Russian mini subs from wrecking havoc on underwater gas lines throughout Europe (assuming this indeed was the case)? 

Posted
18 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

NATO?

Well, I think the bigger question is..

What benefit does Russia get from blowing up its own pipeline that it built? When in fact, it would just be easier to halt gas deliveries to Europe and not mess with the pipeline?

It doesn’t make much sense to me. Maybe I’m missing something?

Posted
8 minutes ago, crazyinsane105 said:

Well, I think the bigger question is..

What benefit does Russia get from blowing up its own pipeline that it built? When in fact, it would just be easier to halt gas deliveries to Europe and not mess with the pipeline?

It doesn’t make much sense to me. Maybe I’m missing something?

I think it's obviously a demonstration of a certain non-nuclear retaliation capability against critical infrastructure in Europe.

This first attack didn't have much economic effects, because the pipelines weren't in use, but the capability can potentially be used in the North Sea, too, where the crucial pipelines from Norway are.

This is why I expect some dramatic fleet actions there in the coming days.

Posted
9 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

Maybe the FFZ is not the best place for the topic, but I would rather have it on a manageable thread than on the Kiev one.

Too late, I'm afraid. :D

Posted
3 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I think it's obviously a demonstration of a certain non-nuclear retaliation capability against critical infrastructure in Europe.

This first attack didn't have much economic effects, because the pipelines weren't in use, but the capability can potentially be used in the North Sea, too, where the crucial pipelines from Norway are.

This is why I expect some dramatic fleet actions there in the coming days.

What this attack really achieved is removing one of the carrots dangled by Appeasement of the West party in front of entire political class of Russia: "Just keep up and not sewer relations with West as this winter they will feel economic and social pain of high energy prices and will give us fase-saving surrender we all want so much in exchange for free NG via NS"

   Now this illusion is gone.

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