Green Energy, and the German Grid, from: Kiev Is Burning

[Ssnake]

12 hours ago, rmgill said:

The point was massive dependence upon Russia and increasing it at the time of his comments. And you had laughing clowns who thought it was hilarious.

There were some laughing clowns, but my view is more dim, that it was Putin's most successful subversion of German civil society, planting a ring of (mostly SPD) politicians in key positions to advance dependency. Mind you, not only was it profitable for them both financially and with the only currency that counts in politics, influence. I think they also believed that this (co-)dependency was a good thing(TM) helping with "stability" in German-Russian relations. Either they were unwilling to see Putin and Russia for what they were, or suppressing the thought for wishful thinking, or they just didn't give a flying fuck.

[sunday]

Not Germany, yet.

 

[lucklucky]

Welcome to 3rd world.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Habeck's Meltdown

Nuclear Energy Standby Proposal Has Germany's Greens Seeing Red

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck was on the verge of becoming a political superstar. But now, the Green Party heavyweight may be experiencing a meltdown in the face of the country's looming energy shortages – and his proposal to use nuclear power to bridge the gap if worse comes to worst.

By Marina Kormbaki, Benedikt Müller-Arnold, Jonas Schaible, Christoph Schult und Gerald Traufetter

09.09.2022, 17.08 Uhr

Just to ensure that the business-friendly Free Democrats didn’t think he was asking too much of them, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck took pains to signal that he was actually putting his own party, the Greens, to the test. That, after all, is what one must do in coalition governments. On Monday, after explaining to lawmakers from his own party that he wanted to keep two nuclear plants on standby this winter to deal with possible energy shortages, he walked down the hall of the Reichstag – home of Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag – to address a meeting of FDP parliamentarians. Even though his Green Party has been in a coalition with the FDP and the Social Democrats (SPD) since last December, it marked Habeck’s first visit to the FDP parliamentary group. But there was no way around it.

Participants say that he started by telling the liberals that he had just addressed his own party. "You can imagine," he said, "that my proposal didn’t trigger an outpouring of enthusiasm." That, though, wasn’t totally true. The Greens had actually steeled themselves for worse.

Many party members, to be sure, would prefer Habeck to simply shut down Germany’s three remaining nuclear plants by the end of the year, as planned. But within the FDP, many lawmakers agree with the conservative opposition that the reactors should continue operating – until spring 2024, for example – to address Germany’s looming energy crisis. Habeck has proposed a compromise, calling for two of the three reactors to be kept in working order on standby, though not actively running, until mid-April as an emergency backup. An idea that has a little something for the FDP and a little something for the Greens.

It's the kind of compromise that democracies are made of, but such an approach needs to be skillfully handled – and that is one box that Habeck didn’t check. He had hardly announced his plan before nuclear power plant operators sent a letter informing him that it wasn’t technically feasible. Accusations were made and concerns were voiced, both within the FDP and the Green parties. And suddenly, doubts have developed as to whether Habeck is up to the job of guiding Germany’s economy at a time when the country is facing a possible recession and potential power shortages.

[...]

At a meeting of Green Party parliamentarians last week, the issue was the focus of intense discussion, and talks continued into the weekend. There are competing narratives as to when, exactly, the decision to keep the reactors on standby was made. Either way, Green Party parliamentary group leaders were informed on Monday morning of the current status of the debate. But the details were apparently not quite nailed down by then. That afternoon, Habeck appeared before Green Party lawmakers.

Members of the parliamentary group would later proudly claim that the floor leaders, together with Baerbock, forced Habeck to abandon the idea of keeping the reactors running. That is the first of two narratives – namely that there was a power struggle inside the party and Habeck lost. But the second narrative holds that Habeck did, in fact, have to back down from the idea of keeping the three reactors running, but that he tried to outflank the Greens with his alternative idea of keeping them on standby should they be needed. In winter, after all, it isn’t unlikely that the worst-case scenario will become reality and continued reactor operations will become inevitable.

The "Standby Trick"

That would essentially translate to a de facto extension of reactor lifespans, but only after state elections in Lower Saxony, scheduled for four weeks from now, and after the Green Party congress. "There is a lot to be said for this theory," says an energy expert who works with the Economy Ministry. "Essentially, Habeck bought himself some time with the standby trick."

If that actually was the plan, it was blown up by someone who actually would have benefited from it. In a letter to Patrick Graichen, state secretary in the Economy Ministry, Guido Knott, CEO of PreussenElektra, which operates one of the three nuclear reactors in question (Isar 2), communicated a rather devastating message. The ministry’s proposal "to send two of the three operational facilities into standby at the end of the year, to then switch them back on as needed, is not technically feasible." The letter was published on Wednesday.

Knott warned: "The testing of a start-up procedure that has never been tried before should not be done concurrently with a critical electricity supply situation." In other words, those who consider nuclear power to be a dangerous technology can certainly not support the standby model. Whether it’s true, however, remains unclear. There aren’t many bodies capable of independently evaluating Knott’s claims.

EnBW, the company which operates another of the trio of reactors (Neckarwestheim 2), announced that it was in contact with the ministry, and only after that would it be possible "to assess the technical and organizational feasibility of the proposal currently under discussion." The operators seemed confused that, following their initial discussions with the ministry, the standby idea was proposed as a potential solution.

The kerfuffle comes at an awkward time for Habeck. Rises and falls in the political world tend to follow a preordained script: Those who rise too high are bound to fall. And Habeck was on the rise for a long time. His way of discussing uncertainty and decision-making has earned him no small amount of praise. In a survey asking German voters who they would rather have as chancellor, Habeck recently came out ahead of Olaf Scholz.

A Serious Situation

But impressions have changed over the last few weeks. First, the plan to allow natural gas companies, including highly profitable ones, to pass on higher prices to consumers in the form of a levy has triggered intense criticism. A television appearance this week resulted in further derision. Even after multiple follow-up questions as to whether he believes this winter will see a wave of insolvencies, Habeck’s position remained inscrutable for many. Very few are of a mind to give the economy minister the benefit of the doubt at the moment. In many people’s eyes, he flew too high for too long. And the situation is too serious.

It's too serious for mistakes and too serious for party politics and election campaign considerations. Why, for example, has the Emsland reactor – the last of the remaining trio of operational nuclear facilities in Germany – not been considered as a candidate for going on standby? Officially, the reasoning is that northern Germany has less risky alternatives for making up any power shortfalls. But might it not also have to do with the fact that Lower Saxony, the state where Emsland is located, is the heartland of the anti-atomic power movement within the anti-atomic Green Party, and that a state election is scheduled there for early October? Are party interests taking precedent over the nation’s interests?

Reactions have been divided in the Green Party. They are pleased that reactor operations aren’t going to be extended, but they are also having trouble with the stand-by idea. Some Greens are nervously awaiting the specific wording of the announced legal changes. How exactly will the determination be made to continue nuclear reactor operations beyond Dec. 31? What other electricity conservation measures must first be maximized? In the party group meeting on Monday, lawmakers kept trying to define the parameters: As long as snow cannons are operating in Bavaria, some said, no nuclear reactor can be taken out of standby. It was a warning to Habeck that the criteria for the reactor standby plan must be concretely and narrowly defined.

Green Party national leaders plan to hold a vote on the issue at the upcoming congress in mid-October. They are convinced that the debate won’t die down until a resolution is passed. Otherwise, the famously rebellious party might turn back the clock and return to the nuclear power battlefield.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/habeck-s-meltdown-nuclear-energy-standby-proposal-has-germany-s-greens-seeing-red-a-8825c5c4-91bf-41c9-a4d9-4d6a91856ce2

[jmsaari]

I thought the German greens were also slowly starting to come around on the nuclear issue... apparently that was over-optimism.

[sunday]

8 minutes ago, jmsaari said:

I thought the German greens were also slowly starting to come around on the nuclear issue... apparently that was over-optimism.

When was the last time you saw a Green politico take a stand based on actual science?

[BansheeOne]

The Green voters are coming around. So is the Green leadership, to some degree. Now the Green party base is mercurial, and not necessarily up for listening to reason.

[rmgill]

Coming around to what though? 

[Ssnake]

15 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

The Green voters are coming around. So is the Green leadership, to some degree. Now the Green party base is mercurial, and not necessarily up for listening to reason.

This.

Mentality-wise, the Green base is made up from teachers. They know it all, they know it all better, they don't hesitate to let you know that you don't, and their minds are made up. They claim to be a party that loves discussion, except of course that their discussion space is heavily restricted to pre-selected palates.

[rmgill]

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by rmgill

[BansheeOne]

After the spike to 345 Euro per MWh, the slump to 215, the rise back to 275 following shutdown of Nord Stream 1, price dropped to about 189 for the Dutch TTF yardstick for European gas as the EU deliberates siphoning off windfall profits from prices beyond 200 Euro for energy not generated with gas.

Quote

European Gas Slumps as Bloc Prepares Details for Intervention

By Anna Shiryaevskaya

12. September 2022 um 08:42 MESZ

Updated on 12. September 2022 um 18:34 MESZ

Natural gas prices fell as the European Union started outlining details of its intervention into an unprecedented energy crisis, including a proposal for targets to reduce electricity demand. Power prices also slumped. 

Benchmark gas futures declined as much as 9.3% to the lowest in a month. Still, prices remain almost eight times higher than normal for the time of year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects they will halve from current levels sometime in the first quarter of 2023.

[...]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/european-gas-declines-as-bloc-plans-details-on-intervention?leadSource=uverify wall

Edited September 12, 2022 by BansheeOne

[JWB]

End Of Renewables Craze Is Near

Renewables have stalled out in California and Germany :: UK announces it will frack for natural gas :: South Korea cuts renewables to fund nuclear

https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/end-of-renewables-craze-is-near?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR0iVE77snq7gnl99hStA5MfQdPNp4IbPS7UOtqk3LsAkyxvf4Zop8J7YH4

[sunday]

Hope we are still able to recover the civilian nuclear industrial skills.

[BansheeOne]

Some encouragement, some alarmism. Even with Russian gas deliveries essentially down to zero and temperatures markedly dropped over the last week to the point where you might want to start turning up the heating, storage is still filling up; now at 90 percent capacity and likely to reach 95 in two weeks or so, the level planned for 1 November and earlier thought to be a challenge to attain by some in charge.

OTOH, energy prices remain a mounting threat to the economy overall. While the feared wave of insolvencies has not begun to really materialize so far and the price summit at the exchanges seems passed, some of the effects will hit end users only reduced, but with delay due to the nature of long-term contracts; and with that development still building up, the existential problem for many companies is real. For ours I can say that printing cost have basically doubled since last year, something we cannot simply compensate for by also doubling ad prices or similar - few customers would pay that, particularly as they have to deal with their own rising utility bills.

Quote

Energy Crisis Fallout

How Bad Will the German Recession Be?

The first German companies have begun throwing in the towel and consumption is collapsing in response to the fallout from exploding energy prices. The economy is sliding almost uncontrolled into a crisis that could permanently weaken the country.

By Michael Brächer, Matthias Kaufmann, Florian Diekmann, Simon Hage, Martin Hesse, Isabell Hülsen, Henning Jauernig, Kristina Gnirke, Simon Book, Gerald Traufetter und Cornelia Schmergal

14.09.2022, 11.51 Uhr

To get a better idea of what lies ahead for the German economy, you can go out and talk to executives in the automotive industry and scholars of the economy; you can study inflation data and share prices. But it's probably also enough just to take a look at an indispensable, everyday product: toilet paper.

In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, the product served as a gauge of the level of Germans' anxiety. The steeper the rate of infection, the emptier the shelves. Manufacturers of the hygiene product were even among the beneficiaries of the pandemic. Now, worries are once again growing across the country about potential shortages of toilet paper, only this time for completely different reasons. Hakle, a household brand name in Germany founded almost 100 years ago, last week filed for bankruptcy in self-administration.

The medium-sized paper manufacturer is one of the first victims of the crisis that is eating through the entire country. You need energy to turn wood into toilet paper – quite a lot of it. Hakle uses 60,000 megawatt hours of natural gas and 40,000 megawatt hours of electricity annually at its Düsseldorf plant alone. And the company can no longer afford it. Skyrocketing energy and raw material prices combined to push Hakle over the edge.

And they're not alone. Bad news from companies all over the country is piling up.

"Fertilizer Producer Facing Shutdown."

"Arcelor-Mittal Suspends Production at Two German Sites."

"Shoe Retailer Görtz Is Insolvent, with 2,500 Jobs at Risk."

Company CEOs and union leaders are now speaking openly about their fears. "The worst is yet to come," says CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach of the German natural gas import giant Uniper, referring to energy prices. And Yasmin Fahimi, head of the powerful DGB union, warned in an interview with DER SPIEGEL that if the government doesn't take swift countermeasures, there is a risk of domino effect that could lead to the de-industrialization of Germany. "That would be a disaster."

The question is no longer whether the crisis will come. The question is how bad it will be and how long it will last.

This tragedy has five acts, and it begins with the energy price shock. Its first victims have been manufacturers that are highly dependent on electricity and gas: paper manufacturers, fertilizer producers, steelmakers. They pass on the price increases – the second act – to other sectors, from industrial companies to small and medium-sized enterprises. For many companies, it is now a matter of sheer survival: More than 90 percent of companies see the increased prices for energy and raw materials as a strong or even existential challenge, according to a recent survey conducted by the Federation of German Industries (BDI).

Companies usually have no choice but to pass on the price increases to consumers, who are already having to save money to cover their skyrocketing electricity and gas bills. And that raises the curtain on the third act, the one with the makings of an economic disaster: Consumer sentiment is worse than it has ever been in postwar German history.

Vacation? A dinner out? New furniture? "These are purchases that millions of people in Germany will now postpone," warns economic researcher Sebastian Dullien, director of the trade union-affiliated Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK). Skyrocketing energy prices, he says, are a "gigantic macroeconomic shock." Some households don't know how they are going to pay the next heating bill, the economist warns. If the heater even works at all – a certainty is beginning to waiver in the face of looming shortages.

Consumption goes down, the first companies throw in the towel and, at some point, unemployment rises. Welcome to acts four and five of the economic drama. There is a word for this horror scenario that awakens age-old fears: recession. And it looks like the country will soon be right in the middle of one.

In the second quarter of 2022, the German economy grew by a paltry 0.1 percent. Economic researchers and policymakers alike are convinced that the next quarterly numbers will be negative. The question is whether politicians will manage to mitigate the consequences – or if there is a threat of an economic crisis that may last for several years with "losses of prosperity on a previously unimaginable scale," as Peter Adrian, the president of the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) put it. In other words, a crisis that could eat away at the country's substance, undermining social security funds and the state's ability to act. It could also lead to the permanent disappearance of many companies. A crisis that would make Germans poorer.

These days, it's difficult to tell where to draw the line between pessimism and justified panic. What is certain is that Putin's economic war is hitting Germany where it hurts most: a gas price that has already more than quadrupled is crushing competitiveness, across pretty much all industries.

[...]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/energy-crisis-fallout-how-bad-will-the-german-recession-be-a-9e1f479e-5fef-4e62-b5ca-2f9e87b9bbca

[MiloMorai]

Not ready yet.

 'Nuclear Reactor On A Truck' - Japan's Mitsubishi Aims To Commercialize 'Reactor-On-A-Truck' By 2030s (eurasiantimes.com)

[rmgill]

That storage is good for how long at normal usage rates?

[BansheeOne]

The 95 percent mark has repeatedly been cited to equal total national consumption in January and February of this year. That is, if on the stroke of New Year 2023 all gas import in addition to the Russian deliveries was cut - from Norway, the Netherlands, and LNG via the Netherlands, Belgium, France and the two German floating terminals planned to commence operations around that date - and there was no reduction in use over last winter, we'd run out two months later.

That's not going to happen of course, and indeed the projections of the Federal Grid Agency for storage buildup with reduced input from Nord Stream 1 are so far turning out to be slightly pessimistic. Per simulations, with delivery cut to 40 percent from June we should have barely made the 85 percent capacity mark at the planned 1 October date even with the otherwise most favorable assumptions; if cut to 20, we should have just missed even that.

In reality, supply was 40 percent for two thirds of July with a scheduled ten-day downtime for maintenance in between, dropped to 20 at the end of the month, and zero at the end of August. Yet here we are on track to reach the ultimate 95 percent target four weeks early. So the combination of alternate supply and savings has definitely exceeded expectations.

But again, while most likely noone's gonna freeze or stop producing for lack of gas, energy prices can be expected to remain problematic for at least the next six months. Though the latest word is that the government will buy a majority stake in troubled mega-provider Uniper to save it; that would put paid to the planned extra levy for customers as the constitution forbids to help out state-owned enterprises with such. This would remove some additional strain (about plus 18 percent for a typical private household with pre-existing gas contract) everyone was staring at for next month.

[BansheeOne]

Continuing the good and the bad news:

Quote

European Gas Posts Fourth Weekly Loss as Winter Reserves Fill Up

- Gas storage sites are about 87% full, with more LNG coming

- Risks remain, days ahead of the start of winter heating season

By Vanessa Dezem and Elena Mazneva

23. September 2022 um 08:50 MESZ Updated on 23. September 2022 um 18:25 MESZ

Natural gas prices in Europe fell for a fourth week, as ample supplies of LNG help countries fill reservoirs days before the start of the heating season.

Benchmark Dutch futures settled 1.1% lower on Friday, extending their longest weekly losing streak since June. Yet, prices are still about six times higher than normal for the time of year.

Europe is racing to ease an unprecedented energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent supply cuts following sanctions targeting Moscow. Countries across the region are hoarding gas and enacting emergency measures ahead of the heating season, which begins next month.

Gas storage sites on the continent are about 87% full. Four more US liquified natural gas cargoes signaled northwest Europe as a destination, with three set to arrive in early October, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Dutch front-month gas closed at 185.495 euros per megawatt-hour, losing 1.2% for the week. The UK equivalent futures settled 0.4% lower in another volatile session, also posting a fourth weekly loss. Benchmark German year-ahead power fell as much as 6.8%.

Still, Europe’s gas market remains sensitive to any potential disruptions, after Moscow slashed supplies to the continent. Preliminary shipment orders for Russian gas crossing war-torn Ukraine indicated flows could drop on Saturday. They may change back to normal overnight, as the market has seen similar developments in the past, but traders are closely watching the updates in case the situation deteriorates. 

[...]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/european-gas-heads-for-fourth-weekly-loss-as-stockpiles-fill-up

 

Quote

Growing Energy Crisis

A Grave Threat to Industry in Germany

The German economy has long been rooted in the country's industrial prowess. But with energy prices skyrocketing, many companies face a murky future. Some have begun considering relocation, highlighting a possible long-term threat to the country's business model.

By Martin Hesse, Simon Hage, Simon Book, Gerald Traufetter, Michael Sauga, Benedikt Müller-Arnold und Marcel Rosenbach

21.09.2022, 17.56 Uhr

German Employers’ Day, the annual gathering in Berlin hosted by the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations (BDA), has long been a target of protesters. Leftists on the barricades, climate activists – most of the people who attend the event hardly even notice anymore.

But even the police were surprised by a small group of demonstrators that turned up last Tuesday to voice their displeasure. It included a dozen men and women in business attire who formally shook hands in greeting before carrying sacks of coal from a green van to prepare for their vigil in front of Berlin’s now defunct urban airport, Tempelhof. Strange times.

The group is called Die Jungen Unternehmer, or "the young entrepreneurs,” and they gathered just in time for the appearance inside of German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, their sworn enemy. The young executives don Habeck masks, grab bundles of fake 50-euro notes and gather around a metal firepit full of charcoal. Three, two, one – then they throw the bundles of money into the pit and launch into a chant in favor of using coal and nuclear to prop up Germany’s teetering power supply. They also hold up signs warning of insolvency and demanding that Habeck put a stop to the "price explosion.” The minister, they say, is burning money instead of coal – money belonging to them and to German consumers.

Inside, BDA President Rainer Dulger’s tone is far from rosy. Only state aid, he says, can prevent companies from going bankrupt due to the rapidly rising prices for gas and electricity. It is a sentiment that can be heard everywhere in Germany as summer draws to a close. Collapse, company relocations, deindustrialization: Those are the terms being used by employee representatives and company executives as they heap pressure on Germany’s political leaders to do something.

The annual BDA gathering, to be sure, has always been a hotspot for Cassandras, but this year, it’s not feigned. Siegfried Russwurm, president of Germany’s national industry association BDI, issued a warning earlier this month of fundamental challenges facing his members. In one recent industrial sector survey, 90 percent of the companies reported that increased energy and raw material prices represent either an existential danger or a serious hazard. Almost one in five companies is looking into moving production abroad. And Yasmin Fahimi, head of the German Trade Union Confederation (DGB), agreed with the doom and gloom in comments to DER SPIEGEL. If the government doesn’t take immediate action, she said, Germany could find itself facing a process of deindustrialization. But it was Peter Adrian, president of the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), who was the most pessimistic. The country, he said, faces several years of economic crisis, including "prosperity losses of an extent not previously imagined.”

The horror scenario that German economic leaders have sketched out could hardly be any worse: It foresees the German economy facing far more than just a recession, but a structural fracture that could lead both Germany and Europe to economic ruin. Entire sectors are threatened, and perhaps the core of what has made the country into one of the winners of globalization in recent years: German industry.

The fact that industrial companies in Germany must modernize to prepare for the coming era, to free themselves from dependence on China and other autocracies, and to become more reliant on renewable energies is a message that everyone has received by now. The German government and the European Commission just recently committed themselves to ensuring that Europe remains home to industry. The bloc would like to see semi-conductors and battery cells produced here in the future, and it wants to become a major exporter of environmental technologies. Natural gas is seen merely as a transition technology to bide time until wind, sun and hydrogen deliver enough power to run all the power plants, chemical factories, blast furnaces and cars that form the backbone of European industry.

But suddenly, right at the most sensitive moment of the transition, at a time when billions must first be invested to build this wonderful new economy, the basis for success has been eliminated: cheap energy.

There is hardly any doubt left that Germany is facing recession. The first bits of bad news have begun trickling in, likely just the beginning. The toilet paper manufacturer Hakle, the shoe store chain Görtz and the auto parts supplier Dr. Schneider have all filed for insolvency. Companies from energy-intensive sectors like the chemical, steel and paper industries have reduced production or suspended it altogether, such as the fertilizer producer SKW Piesteritz. "Instead of the economic recovery we had been hoping for, Germany is set to experience a painful recession,” says Stefan Kooths, vice president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

The questions that executives across the country find themselves faced with are of an existential nature: For how long can we continue to withstand high energy prices? How can we save? Is production in Germany even still worth it any longer? Or is it time to move away to a place where energy prices aren’t as high?

The answers depend on how long the crazy fluctuations on the gas and electricity markets continue. And when, or if, prices fall back to their pre-crisis levels. A winter is perhaps doable. Maybe even a year. But two years? Or three?

At 94 billion cubic meters per year, Germany is by far the largest consumer of natural gas in Europe, with a third of that going to industry. Torsten Henzelmann, an energy expert with the business consultancy Roland Berger, now at least believes that there is no longer a danger of German gas supplies completely drying up overnight. "In all probability, we will get through the winter without the rationing foreseen in the third level of the Emergency Plan for Gas,” he says. But even beyond that, he warns, prices could remain high. And the cost of electricity, which is even more important for the German economy, is linked to the price of natural gas. And that has also been spiking from record high to record high of late. Who is supposed to pay for it all? The state?

[...]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/growing-energy-crisis-a-grave-threat-to-industry-in-germany-a-9152547c-a31d-483e-a70c-242c280cab23

[sunday]

On 9/20/2022 at 5:34 PM, rmgill said:

That storage is good for how long at normal usage rates?

At the beginning of August, Spain's was at 80%, good for 28 days. However, 10 days are strategic reserve that could not be used, another 10 days are a reserve that only the Prime Minister could release, thus there is only 8 days worth for normal demand.

Perhaps the reason to have so little storage was that Spain had a sweet gas deal with Algeria, bringing the gas directly by pipeline from Algeria proper, but that bonehead of PM we have angered Algeria by pandering to Morocco.

Edited September 24, 2022 by sunday

[Ivanhoe]

Stumbled across this video, relevant to this thread. TLDW, as my enthusiasm for European regulatory analysis is limited to banana radius of curvature regs, but posted for your enjoyment;

 

[Roman Alymov]

Meanwhile something is going on in depth of Baltic Sea

The pressure on both lines has dropped in the Nord Stream — 1 gas pipeline

On the evening of September 26, a pressure drop was recorded on both lines of the Nord Stream—1 gas pipeline. This is reported by Interfax with reference to the operator of the Nord Stream AG pipeline.

"Tonight, the dispatchers of the Nord Stream— 1 control center recorded a pressure drop on both lines of the gas pipeline. The reasons are being investigated," the company's comments say.

Earlier, the pressure drop was recorded in line A of the parallel Nord Stream —2 gas pipeline. According to the Danish Maritime Administration, the emergency occurred off the coast of Bornholm Island. Now the agency advises ships to bypass this area for five miles.

In early September, Gazprom announced that it was stopping pumping gas through the Nord Stream—1 pipeline for an indefinite time due to an oil leak in the only serviceable turbine. The company stressed that it is possible to eliminate these shortcomings only at the plant in Canada.

https://www.bfm.ru/news/509637

Earlier article about simmilar problems with NS-2 https://www.bfm.ru/news/509632

September 26, 2022, 21:06 
"Atypical accident": the pressure dropped sharply in the pipes of the Nord Stream - 2

Experts suspect a gas leak. The pressure dropped from 105 to 7 bar. Presumably, the incident occurred in the Danish exclusive economic zone southeast of Bornholm Island

A sharp drop in pressure was recorded in line A of the Nord Stream — 2 gas pipeline, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 AG project said. "The coast services of Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Russia were immediately notified. An investigation is underway," the company said in a comment.

Later, the Danish Maritime Administration clarified the location: the emergency occurred off the coast of Bornholm Island. This point is located outside the territorial waters of the country, in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark. Now the Danish Maritime Administration advises ships to bypass this area for five miles.

Independent expert Dmitry Lyutyagin talks about what kind of incident it could be:

— Atypical accident. In fact, such projects, even if you look at the "Nord Stream — 1", function normally. The pipes that are made for it, the connections that are made, meet all the necessary safety standards, especially European ones, they pay serious attention to environmental issues. This is an unusual situation when there is a gas leak in the underwater part of the pipeline.

— How does it look in the context of the fact that Nord Stream—2 is not working now and the threads were filled with gas anyway?

— When the gas pipeline is being built, it is all in water, all the pipes are also filled with water. When it is already completed, the preventive, technical, part begins, which is quite long in time. For more than one day, the pipe is filled with gas — and then the gas pipeline is already under pressure with gas.

— What could cause such a leak?

— The pipe was made incorrectly, the welding was wrong, the disconnection was wrong, perhaps some kind of deformation or movement occurred when filling it with gas. The second reason is mechanical, external impact on the pipe.

The Nord Stream—2 offshore gas pipeline has a design capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Both lines of the completed gas pipeline are now filled with gas, the pipes are under pressure.

An underwater leak is an extremely atypical case, it prompts certain reflections, says Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund:

Igor Yushkov
is a leading expert of the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund
"It will be necessary to find a place where the depressurization took place, there is clearly a hole in the gas pipeline. If the pressure dropped, it means that the gas has gone out somewhere. Neither the Russian side nor the German side pumped it out, which means that somewhere in the Bornholm Island area, as the Danes say, there was a methane leak. This is an extremely rare case in the history of the gas industry when a pipe is depressurized, and a new gas pipeline is also being built. What the Danes say looks like the Swiss company Allseas was still building that section, that is, it will be difficult to even accuse Russia that we somehow built it badly, poorly welded pipes. Moreover, tests were carried out on this gas pipeline, it was under pressure — and suddenly there was a depressurization. I think that the Russian side will also consider the option of sabotage, the accident occurred near the island of Bornholm, where the depth is small — from 10 to 25 meters, for the Baltic Sea it is not much. Recently there have been calls to dismantle the gas pipeline, and it cannot be disassembled when it is under pressure. There were threats to the pipeline when it was still under construction, when Russian pipe-laying workers were completing it, we remember how submarines surfaced there, how military planes with torpedoes flew there, how pipe-laying vessels and Polish vessels rammed under the guise of sleeping fishermen. It was all there, so it's a very suspicious accident, we have to wait until everything turns out what happened there. Relatively speaking, we need to get under the water and see what's wrong with the gas pipeline."

Now the Nord Stream—2 project is de facto frozen. The German authorities stopped the certification process of the gas pipeline, and the United States added the Nord Stream 2 AG project company to the sanctions list. Because of this, the company was forced to terminate the contracts with the staff.

[Huba]

There are reports of leaks in both Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, there's navy activity and security zone established.
I can easily believe it is sabotage (tinfoil hat mode on!), there's quite a long list of countries that would benefit from taking the pipes out of the picture. Perhaps even DE government could have it's hand untied this way - it might be now physically impossible to get back to business as usual, even if there was some crazy political change. But IMO it is the CEE countries that have the most to gain from this development, especially Ukraine (obviously) and Poland. The weird coincidence is that tomorrow Baltic Pipe from NO to PL will be officially opened.
Still, my bet would be on the RU - this has potential to further disturb EU unity and sow fear before the winter season.  As  there was no prospect to make use of the pipelines anyway, they could at least be used as a weapon one last time. 

 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-sweden-9ac152e4e4a195bb78dacd4d270ef9cb

[urbanoid]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

There are reports of leaks in both Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, there's navy activity and security zone established.
I can easily believe it is sabotage (tinfoil hat mode on!), there's quite a long list of countries that would benefit from taking the pipes out of the picture. Perhaps even DE government could have it's hand untied this way - it might be now physically impossible to get back to business as usual, even if there was some crazy political change. But IMO it is the CEE countries that have the most to gain from this development, especially Ukraine (obviously) and Poland. The weird coincidence is that tomorrow Baltic Pipe from NO to PL will be officially opened.
Still, my bet would be on the RU - this has potential to further disturb EU unity and sow fear before the winter season.  As  there was no prospect to make use of the pipelines anyway, they could at least be used as a weapon one last time. 

 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-sweden-9ac152e4e4a195bb78dacd4d270ef9cb

If the EU manages to make it through the winter without either NS, all next winters will be only easier. 

NS2 isn't working yet and gas through NS1 stopped flowing some time ago, so the problems with pipelines seem irrelevant at least for now. Given the amount of gas in German storage they also won't be desperate for quite some time.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Sure, it won't have a direct impact on the situation. But given that both lines broke at the same time, it's hard to believe in an accident I think. I really won't be surprised if they find a dead diver with UA passport and Azov tattoo on the site

With written orders in a waterproof case, signed by Biden, Zelensky and maybe Duda as well. 

[urbanoid]

Just now, Roman Alymov said:

Depending on what you consider "easier": it would be easier. to plan consumption as there will be only one option  to plan "without Russian gas". But it will be "harder", or more expencive, as it will be no oppotunity to fill in the storages in advance with relatively cheap Russian gas as they were filled this summer. 

There is plenty of LNG on global market. But it is all more expencive than pipeline-provided gas. And European industry is in hard competition with Asia and US even with cheap gas - now imagine facing the same competition without cheap gas....

Plenty of European countries that didn't import pipeline gas and used their LNG terminals instead. China operated mostly on LNG, I think they still do, we'll have to adjust. No, it won't be cheap, things that are worth it rarely are.