Green Energy, and the German Grid, from: Kiev Is Burning

[DKTanker]

2 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

We interrupt your regular spell of TDS for this announcement on the actual topic:

Two nuke plants are to remain in reserve until mid-April to ensure grid stability in case of "hours-length crisis situations" in winter, which is considered "very unlikely, but cannot currently be ruled out entirely".

I thought nuke plants were now verboten in Green Deutschland, over ten years now.

[sunday]

Green good intentions do not power electric motors.

[rmgill]

4 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

We interrupt your regular spell of TDS for this announcement on the actual topic:

What's the TDS?

4 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Two nuke plants are to remain in reserve until mid-April to ensure grid stability in case of "hours-length crisis situations" in winter, which is considered "very unlikely, but cannot currently be ruled out entirely".

Where does all of that capacity stack up to compared to current demand projections? Places that heated with gas, how are they going to use power from Nuclear? What if the hours length crisis situations last longer than an hour? 

[sunday]

7 minutes ago, rmgill said:

What's the TDS?

Seems Torpedo Defense System is the least silly option here.

Edited September 5, 2022 by sunday

[rmgill]

 

[lucklucky]

2 hours ago, DKTanker said:

For example, Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Deutsche Democratic Republic.

No,  those had no vote.  Totalitarian Democracy is ruled by the majority or the major minority, but the other minorities are crushed. It is winner takes all.

[Colin]

On 9/4/2022 at 11:10 AM, lucklucky said:

The World laughed at Trump was the journalist narrative.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/09/25/trump-accused-germany-becoming-totally-dependent-russian-energy-un-germans-just-smirked/

Yea who could have seen this coming.......

[sunday]

2 hours ago, Colin said:

Yea who could have seen this coming.......

Not Germans afflicted with TDS, for sure.

[BansheeOne]

12 hours ago, rmgill said:

What's the TDS?

Obsessively interjecting debate about Trump on the most flimsy connection to the actual topic, almost two years after he's out and gone even? That's, like, the definition of TDS. It might be the red strain, but TDS it is. 😉

Quote

Where does all of that capacity stack up to compared to current demand projections? Places that heated with gas, how are they going to use power from Nuclear? What if the hours length crisis situations last longer than an hour? 

The official wording tries to stress that the capacity will most likely not be needed at all, and if it will, then at most for some hours at a time. IOW, it's attempting to say "look, we're not really reversing our phase-out decision, which was not really utterly retarded to begin with, so no reason to be pissed off for our Green voters who still think it was a good idea". Unsurprisingly, both the conservative opposition and the Liberals within the government coalition are criticizing the measure as insufficient.

[rmgill]

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Obsessively interjecting debate about Trump on the most flimsy connection to the actual topic, almost two years after he's out and gone even?

Trump is only one of MANY people who saw this coming. It's a "I bloody well told you so." Germans, with any sense and concern should be trumpeting this all to the heavens to get their green party to shut the hell up and let the adults control things rather than taking your energy and foreign policy ideas from a high school dropout girl. 

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

That's, like, the definition of TDS. It might be the red strain, but TDS it is. 😉

Sure. Make it about JUST Trump and the derangement around him. It really just points to the anti-Trumpers derangement that they can't bloody well admit, 2 years running when he SPECIFICALLY warned about this failure of "the plan"

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

The official wording tries to stress that the capacity will most likely not be needed at all, and if it will, then at most for some hours at a time.

Who came up with the data/conclusion? Is it founded in handwaving? Or is it the same sort of nonsense like we have with California encouraging electric car use but unable to support current usage rates AND not doing anything to solve that? 

6 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

IOW, it's attempting to say "look, we're not really reversing our phase-out decision, which was not really utterly retarded to begin with, so no reason to be pissed off for our Green voters who still think it was a good idea". Unsurprisingly, both the conservative opposition and the Liberals within the government coalition are criticizing the measure as insufficient.

So, stuck on stupid then? Ok. Maybe stop listening to the Green Party Voters at all. Clearly, they're either insane OR are working for the likes of Putin. ie they're still stuck on their Watermelon Party behavior and support the old USSR. 

[sunday]

Germany is the country of unicorns and magic if the people there truly believe one could operate a PWR or a BWR nuke "only for few hours".

Those things need anything from 12 to 24 hours to start, only the most modern ones could be started in 12 hours.

[rmgill]

Here's a question. The two laughing characters at the UN Summit where Trump was warning not 3 years ago. Are they still in office? Are they still making policy? 

[BansheeOne]

16 hours ago, rmgill said:

Trump is only one of MANY people who saw this coming. It's a "I bloody well told you so." Germans, with any sense and concern should be trumpeting this all to the heavens to get their green party to shut the hell up and let the adults control things rather than taking your energy and foreign policy ideas from a high school dropout girl. 

Sure. Make it about JUST Trump and the derangement around him. It really just points to the anti-Trumpers derangement that they can't bloody well admit, 2 years running when he SPECIFICALLY warned about this failure of "the plan"

Well, Nord Stream 2 which Trump warned about (as did many in Germany) never became operational, and thus doesn't contribute to the current gas crunch. He never said anything about Nord Stream 1 or previous gas lines from Russia, because when that became active over a decade ago, he was still busy firing apprentices on TV. Hence, flimsy connection to the topic, just to bring up an ex-president. It's known as TDS when Milo does it. 😉

On the nuclear Green thing, here is a "Spiegel" article on the nuances:

Quote

Nuclear Power for the Winter

Germany's Green Party Confronts Its Last Taboo

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck wants to keep two nuclear power plants on standby to prevent electricity shortages this winter now that Putin has cut energy supplies. The Green Party will have to decide if it can reconcile this with the anti-atomic position that served as its genesis. Will the party revolt?

By Marina Kormbaki, Serafin Reiber, Jonas Schaible und Gerald Traufetter

06.09.2022, 17.52 Uhr

The protesters are already lined up outside the Federal Press Conference building in Berlin. Greenpeace activists are drumming on tin barrels that have been painted yellow. "Not a single day longer," reads the protest banner they hold up to Robert Habeck.

The German economy minister is about to announce the results of the stress test for the three nuclear power plants that are still online in Germany, but before that, the Green Party politician is to get a taste of what he will face if he announces the wrong thing. Or what the demonstrators consider to be the wrong thing.

Habeck, though, isn't in the mood for discussions. A terse "morning" passes his lips, then he turns the corner and enters the building. The protesters are unhappy. "Even if the power plants are only placed on standby, we're against it," one says.

A Bitter Pill for the Greens to Swallow

Habeck's plan, though, is to do just that. The Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim nuclear power plants are scheduled to be shut down and taken offline by the end of the year, but the new plan calls for them to be placed on "operational reserve" until April 2023, ready in the event of an unspecified emergency. The plants, in other words, won't be kept operating as normal. Neither, though, will they be completely shut down as called for by a German law passed after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. That law calls for the phase out all atomic plants in the country by the end of 2022.

Habeck has come up with a different idea.

Decisive days are now dawning for the Greens. The anti-nuclear movement is at the core of the Green Party's identity and the most important element in the founding of the party. The fact that Habeck is now proposing to at least delay the nuclear phase-out is another of several impositions that his party has had to put up with in its first months in the government coalition.

In recent days, an even worse scenario for the Greens had been circulating – namely that the plants would be placed on long-term standby. Habeck didn't allow those fears to come true – and that has helped him noticeably, as conversations with members of parliament suggest. But will that be enough to keep the party calm even after the initial relief has worn off?

[...]

Members Seem Caught off Guard

There is plenty of criticism, to be sure. But Habeck has once again caught everyone off guard with this previously undiscussed variant. The deputies had clear positions on limited continued operations, on a lifetime extension. They had no positions on the idea of keeping two nuclear power plants on standby.

Much is still unclear, especially whether Habeck is tricking his own people, who were determined not to have limited operations of the nuclear plants extended. Or those political opponents who wanted to push it through at all costs.

For the moment, that doesn't seem so important politically. The leadership of the parliamentary group is signaling support, and similar signals can be heard from the parliamentary group's executive committee and the government cabinet. Even members of parliament who were previously uncertain say they can go along with it.

At first, the party seemed to be facing the agonizing choice of being seen as incapable of governing at the federal level or betraying its oldest principle. But another view has crystallized: Namely that the core identity of the party is perhaps no longer unmoving adherence to specific policy issues (anti-nuclear or environmental protection, for example), but a method of conducting politics - the recognition of reality and the attempt to shape it according to specific principles. This attitude seems to have prevailed yet again.

[...]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/nuclear-power-for-the-winter-germany-s-green-party-confronts-its-last-taboo-a-fb0a5bd9-3591-473e-8776-998061f295dd

While we're at it:

Quote

A Winter of Privation?

What the Natural Gas Shortage Means for Germany

Gazprom is no longer delivering natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. What does that mean for the coming winter? We have answers to the most pressing questions.

By Claus Hecking, Benedikt Müller-Arnold und Gerald Traufetter

06.09.2022, 18.07 Uhr

The news that Gazprom sent west on Friday evening could hardly have been worded more awkwardly. During maintenance work at a compressor station near the Baltic Sea coast in Russia, a "leak of engine oil" had been discovered, the company announced. As a result, the turbine facility, which is used to send natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany, could no longer be safely operated. As such, Gazprom said, deliveries through the pipeline would be completely suspended.

Just a few months ago, the announcement would have been a complete disaster  for Germany's natural gas supplies. For years, Nord Stream 1 was the most important pipeline for gas imports to Germany, and Gazprom was by far the country's most important supplier. A suspension of supplies through the pipeline means that Germany is no longer able to plan on natural gas deliveries from Russia, even if the country's Federal Network Agency has its doubts as to whether the defects found are enough to justify a cessation of operations.

Either way, the consequences of Gazprom's announcement have been clear this week in Europe. On the European reference market TTF, natural gas prices on Monday were up to 30 percent higher than on Friday, while Germany's blue chip stock index, the DAX, plunged by up to 3 percent. Concern was widespread that the German economy would find itself in a tight spot this winter without natural gas from Russia.

On the other hand, ever since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February, Germany has been doing all it can to become independent of gas imports from Russia. The country's storage facilities are filling up and natural gas consumption, particularly in industry, has dropped significantly. So does that mean that the suspension of deliveries via Nord Stream 1 isn't such a big deal after all? We have compiled answers to the most important questions.

[...]

https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/a-winter-of-privation-what-the-natural-gas-shortage-means-for-germany-a-0ff0fe91-e05c-4ba9-bd4b-03f00a0b3fdf

[BansheeOne]

Also, numbers on German power generation for the first half of 2022, compared to the same timeframe last year.

Total generated: 263.2 bn MWh (+ 1.3 %)

of which

- renewables: 48.5 % (+ 12.1 %)

- coal: 31.4 % (+ 17.2 %)

- gas: 11.7 % (- 17.9 %)

- nuclear: 6.0 % (- 50.8 %)

Imported: 23.3 bn MWh (- 9.1 %)

Exported: 39.6 bn MWh (+ 14.5 %)

The increased exports are mostly due to France receiving more electricity than delivering for the first time since the statistic started in 1990; French exports to Germany dropped by almost 60 percent because so many of their nuke plants are currently offline over drought effects and maintenance issues. As noted elsewhere, the energy flow is expected to reverse in Winter as some of those plants come back on, and France is also reactivating a gas pipeline originally built for imports from Germany, which will now be used to export LNG from French ports.

 

[sunday]

Europe’s Nightmare Scenario Comes True: Energy Bills To Rise By €2 Trillion, Will Reach 20% Of Disposable Income

Quote

“Liquidity support is going to be needed,” Helge Haugane, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, said in an interview. The issue is focused on derivatives trading, while the physical market is functioning, he said, adding that the company’s estimate for $1.5 trillion to prop up so-called paper trading is “conservative.””

In other words, massive amounts of newly-printed funding (because with yields blowing up, Europe’s fiscal stimulus will be over before it started unless central banks step in and backstop the latest energy hyperinflation bailout plans) will be required to avert an energy disaster. Alas, the final number will be even more massive, because overnight Goldman’s research team published a must read note (available to pro subs), in which the bank looked at the scale of the energy bill challenge, potential European government responses and industry implications, and quantified the total damage. The numbers are staggering:

Disclaimer: I am not a financial sector professional, nor play one in TV.

[lucklucky]

2 hours ago, sunday said:

Europe’s Nightmare Scenario Comes True: Energy Bills To Rise By €2 Trillion, Will Reach 20% Of Disposable Income

Disclaimer: I am not a financial sector professional, nor play one in TV.

So one more step into Banana Republic level. More "free" money.

[sunday]

Sri Lanka

[BansheeOne]

Well the head of energy provider Preussen Elektra promptly wrote a letter to Minister Habeck stating what I already suspected: you cannot just put nuclear powerplants in cold reserve and raise steam again on short notice to make up for "hours-length" problems with the grid. He also says the ministry has known for two weeks that flexible increase or decrease of output is no longer doable with the run-down fuel rods, particularly not within a week or less, and the operator doesn't even have any experience with such a procedure.

[glenn239]

5 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Also, numbers on German power generation for the first half of 2022, compared to the same timeframe last year.

Total generated: 263.2 bn MWh (+ 1.3 %)

of which

- renewables: 48.5 % (+ 12.1 %)

How much of the renewable is hydro, and how much is generated off peak, and so, not actually consumed?

[jmsaari]

53 minutes ago, glenn239 said:

How much of the renewable is hydro, and how much is generated off peak, and so, not actually consumed?

Just a couple of percent is hydro. Wind is the main renewable, significant minorities solar & biomass. 

Not sure you mean with "not actually consumed"?

[BansheeOne]

I can't tell the distribution over time, but if you break down renewables, share of total power is 25.7 percent wind (+ 18.1), 11.2 solar (+ 20.1), 5.7 biogas (- 0.3) and 3.2 hydro (- 13.0). I don't think though any electricity generated is "not consumed"; anything surplus to domestic requirements is dumped across European borders (there were reports some years ago that peak production of German solar and wind is stressing the grids of its eastern neighbors) while gaps are filled by conventional backup plants - one of the cost drivers of the Energiewende, since you have to keep sufficient capacities idling in case sun and wind drop off.

Speaking of backup, Minister Habeck is now reportedly astonished at the Preussen Elektra letter since per him, the idea was never to use the two nuke plants that flexible, rather than possibly making the decision at one point in the first quarter of 2023. Of course since he's currently being raked over the coals for a talkshow statement that "there will be no bankruptcy wave, some companies might just stop producing", it's entirely possible the fault for any misunderstanding is not on Preussen Elektra's side, as he implies.

 

[sunday]

1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

How much of the renewable is hydro, and how much is generated off peak, and so, not actually consumed?

In the electrical system, power generated at any given time equals power consumed at the same time. If not, then the network frequency increases.

Surely you mean another thing. For instance, here in Spain, the renewable generation has priority, so if there is a renewable excess generation, then other sources, mostly highly flexible hydro or gas turbines, are throttled.

Edited September 7, 2022 by sunday

[rmgill]

Yep. You can anticipate loads, schedule types of generation capacity to be on to handle the gross and adjust to actual demand with the small stuff that is throttle-able. Hydro is great for this. Coal, NG and other systems that boil water have a delay. Throttle lag is a thing. Solar and wind are variable. Unless you are charging batteries, they make for other headaches.  

[rmgill]

12 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Well, Nord Stream 2 which Trump warned about (as did many in Germany) never became operational, and thus doesn't contribute to the current gas crunch. He never said anything about Nord Stream 1 or previous gas lines from Russia, because when that became active over a decade ago, he was still busy firing apprentices on TV.

The point was massive dependence upon Russia and increasing it at the time of his comments. And you had laughing clowns who thought it was hilarious. It was obviously a problem at the time. So, 10:10 for Leftie/TDS/Greenie style, minus several million for good thinking eh? 

12 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Hence, flimsy connection to the topic, just to bring up an ex-president. It's known as TDS when Milo does it. 😉

I don't care if it was David Hasselhoff who said it. Anyone who mentioned this massive dependance upon Russia for energy was a really bad idea was right. Anyone who pushed this policy should be set aside as unfit for national policy making and be held out as an example of who not to follow. 

12 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Edited September 7, 2022 by rmgill

[rmgill]

Oh and I am Not deranged about Trump. Deranged is arguing he was wrong because he was Trump even when he was right. Or what ever. Genetic fallacy ya know.
 

Do I need to point to Den Beste's post over at USS clueless?

Edited September 7, 2022 by rmgill