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24 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Maybe another contact?

Whole story is on Wikipedia, possibly some intermediate who was also vaccinated and just spread it, but was never found out who.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak#Outbreak

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18 minutes ago, bojan said:

Whole story is on Wikipedia, possibly some intermediate who was also vaccinated and just spread it, but was never found out who.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Yugoslav_smallpox_outbreak#Outbreak

Thanks

---

With international forces/including bureaucrats etc) heavily in Iraq in first decade of XXI century was there any relevant cases of smallpox?

Edited by lucklucky
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5 hours ago, bojan said:

1972. Yugoslav outbreak was such freak accident - clergymen went to hajj to the Muslim holly sites in IIRC Iraq, came back, felt unwell, but symptoms were flu like and he got well after few days. None in his immediate neighborhood got it, but person from the same town, for whom contact with patient zero was never confirmed got it and spread it further.

That hits on something that concerns me about the USian approach to contagion. AIUI it seems to rely mainly on Dr. John Q. Average, MD to identify infection by some obscure/novel contagion, simply from a 3 minute exam and a few vital statistics. As we saw with COVID, an upper respiratory virus that hits in winter will be probably shrugged off as a flu.

 

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7 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

...AIUI it seems to rely mainly on Dr. John Q. Average, MD to identify infection by some obscure/novel contagion, simply from a 3 minute exam and a few vital statistics. ...

O yeah, especially exotics. None of doctors in 1972. Yugoslavia has seen smallpox live (last documented case was in late 1920s). It took 11 days to notice cases of the smallpox and 19 to confirm it in the originally infected guy.

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13 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

That hits on something that concerns me about the USian approach to contagion. AIUI it seems to rely mainly on Dr. John Q. Average, MD to identify infection by some obscure/novel contagion, simply from a 3 minute exam and a few vital statistics. As we saw with COVID, an upper respiratory virus that hits in winter will be probably shrugged off as a flu.

 

There's a lot of structure and data mining in place beyond the clinician level.  The various agencies have expected progressions and reported symptoms along with test results down to the county level and they compare actual results against expected and when stuff gets out of line they drill further into that area.  They also compare against a mountain of data (electricity usage, internet and streaming media usage, gasoline purchases, toll usage on the highways, ER visits, ratios of scheduled versus unscheduled visits to health care providers, etc.  Covid demonstrated it was working fairly well, we picked up in the western world the surges much earlier in the process than we would have 20 years ago where actual statistically significant fatalities would have been the driver.  We got ahead of it in Europe and the USA weeks earlier than we would have seen historically.  

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10 hours ago, nitflegal said:

There's a lot of structure and data mining in place beyond the clinician level.  The various agencies have expected progressions and reported symptoms along with test results down to the county level and they compare actual results against expected and when stuff gets out of line they drill further into that area.  They also compare against a mountain of data (electricity usage, internet and streaming media usage, gasoline purchases, toll usage on the highways, ER visits, ratios of scheduled versus unscheduled visits to health care providers, etc.  Covid demonstrated it was working fairly well, we picked up in the western world the surges much earlier in the process than we would have 20 years ago where actual statistically significant fatalities would have been the driver.  We got ahead of it in Europe and the USA weeks earlier than we would have seen historically.  

I know the CDC's flu surveillance includes stuff like OTC meds purchase rates. That said...

IMHO the above is not even remotely fast enough to make lockdowns etc. effective. And recalling the fustercluck with early testing methods and the FDA, the US is still quite vulnerable to a Spanish Flu scenario.

I know in the USian South, docs were pathetically late to the game with things like Lyme disease, West Nile, etc. because the federal narrative failed to factor in reality.

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On 5/22/2022 at 4:08 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

And within 8 posts, we are already onto the boring US domestic political scene. Do we REALLY need to do another one? Can we just stop, just this once?

Ya know, I'm having  a hard time figuring out how Canada and Cuba are the US domestic political scene...and in the context of "Ministry of Disinformation" it's kinda 1984 which is kinda not the US.

But nice try. 


 

 

On 5/22/2022 at 2:20 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

Wonder if it could be passed by handtowels?

 Don't use someone else's used hand towels. It's generally good hygiene. 

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9 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

I know the CDC's flu surveillance includes stuff like OTC meds purchase rates. That said...

IMHO the above is not even remotely fast enough to make lockdowns etc. effective. And recalling the fustercluck with early testing methods and the FDA, the US is still quite vulnerable to a Spanish Flu scenario.

I know in the USian South, docs were pathetically late to the game with things like Lyme disease, West Nile, etc. because the federal narrative failed to factor in reality.

We are but this is where the politicization of the WHO is most problematic.  The system is designed to have canaries in the coal mine throughout the developing world and those are our triggers.  Basically the third world gets hosed but it alerts us before it hits our shores.  The problem is we have a really good trigger system for known pathogens but unknowns by their very nature have lags because we aren't looking for them, we're monitoring for the effects.

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2 hours ago, JWB said:

How Deadly Is Monkeypox? Virus Fatality Rate Compared to COVID.

How Deadly Is Monkeypox? Virus Fatality Rate Compared to COVID (msn.com)

For f**k's sake, this is why post-pandemic (and probably pre-) we can't trust the media reporting on medical issues.  One minor bit of context they left out is in a typical western nation the fatality rate is essentially zero.  They give the 3-6% (oh gawd, it's higher than Covid we're all gonna die!) without reporting that this is in populations who have no medical care.  Fun fact, in those same populations the fatality rates for influenza are in the double digits. . . 

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I notice that the transmission/vector  cluster is rather special too. It remains to be seen if that's critical to transmission or not. But I suppose it'll be another thing for the bug hunters. 

Edited by rmgill
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On 5/22/2022 at 10:08 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

And within 8 posts, we are already onto the boring US domestic political scene. Do we REALLY need to do another one? Can we just stop, just this once?

lol

What did you expect when you started the thread with a tweet like this?

Well, at least this time the TankieNet crazies already took over on page one, so there's no need for warning signs. 😅

Edited by Der Zeitgeist
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One question, why this and HIV hits more gays?   An*l  sex is also part o heterosexual conduct. I bet that in overall numbers more woman go there than gay man.  More promiscuity? but then why all this issues do not apparently first appear in prostitution?

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23 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

One question, why this and HIV hits more gays?   An*l  sex is also part o heterosexual conduct. I bet that in overall numbers more woman go there than gay man.  More promiscuity? but then why all this issues do not apparently first appear in prostitution?

With HIV it was behavioral.  Most gay men were no more likely than heterosexual men to get HIV.  However, there was a small but significant subset who engaged in extremely risky behaviors (frequent partners, a sizable minority of those partners being extremely promiscuous and frankly unselective).  Once it passed a tipping point within the community then it spread simply because the potential partners were far more limited.  It also went political and so many gay men actively behaved in counter-productive ways to demonstrate that they wouldn't be controlled.

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This Medical Professional does a pretty good layout. I like his small pox vaccination presentation segment showing that small pox vaccinations from 13 to 48 years prior to exposure kept individuals from developing symptoms but were still carriers.
 

 

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