South Korea vs Japan, the 2030s and on

[RETAC21]

Nobu has brought up several times a potential war between South Korea and Japan, conceivably over Liancourt rocks, but with wider regional implications.

So, on one side of the ring we have the Republic of Korea (ROK)

Population: 52 milllion approx.

GDP: 1.65 Billion USD (0.03 per capita)

Active armed forces personnel: 595.000 (460k Army, 70k Navy, 65k Air Force)

Reserves 2.75 million

Aircraft

Air Combat Command
1st Fighter Wing, based at Gwangju (F-5E/F)
8th Fighter Wing, based at Wonju (FA-50)
10th Fighter Wing, based at Suwon (KF-5E/F, F-4E)
11th Fighter Wing, based at Daegu (F-15K)
16th Fighter Wing, based at Yecheon (TA-50)
17th Fighter Wing, based at Cheongju (F-35A)
18th Fighter Wing, based at Gangneung (KF-5E/F)
19th Fighter Wing, based at Chungju (KF-16)
20th Fighter Wing, based at Seosan (KF-16)
38th Fighter Group, based at Gunsan (KF-16)
Air Mobility & Reconnaissance Command
3rd Flying Training Wing, based at Sacheon
5th Air Mobility Wing, based at Gimhae
15th Special Missions Wing, based at Seongnam

Boeing 737 AEW&C aircraft of the Republic of Korea Air Force
39th Reconnaissance Wing, based at Chungju

Fleet

18 submarines
12 destroyers
12 frigates
11 corvettes
64 patrol vessels
14 amphibious warfare ships
11 mine warfare ships
20 auxiliary ships

On the other, we have Japan

Population: 125 million  approx.

GDP: 5 billion USD (0.04 per capita)

Active armed forces personnel: 250.000 (150k Army, 50k Navy, 50k Air force)

Aircraft

Air Defense Command: Yokota, Fussa, Tokyo
Northern Air Defense Force: Misawa, Aomori
2nd Air Wing (Chitose Air Base: 201SQ, F-15J/DJ, T-4; 203SQ, F-15J/DJ, T-4)
3rd Air Wing (Misawa Air Base: 301SQ, F-35A, T-4; 302SQ, F-35A, T-4)
Northern Air Command Support Flight, (Misawa, T-4)
Northern Aircraft Control & Warning Wing
3rd Air Defense Missile Group
6th Air Defense Missile Group
Central Air Defense Force: Iruma, Saitama
6th Air Wing (Komatsu Air Base: 303SQ, F-15J/DJ, T-4; 306SQ, F-15J/DJ, T-4)
7th Air Wing (Hyakuri Air Base: 3SQ, F-2A/B T-4)
Central Air Command Support Squadron (Iruma Air Base T-4, U-4)
Central Aircraft Control & Warning Wing
1st Air Defense Missile Group
4th Air Defense Missile Group
Iwo Jima Air Base Group
Western Air Defense Force: Kasuga, Fukuoka
5th Air Wing (Nyutabaru Air Base: 305SQ, F-15J/DJ, T-4)
8th Air Wing (Tsuiki Air Base: 6SQ, F-2A/B, T-4; 8SQ, F-2A/B, T-4)
Western Air Command Support Squadron, (Kasuga, T-4)

F-2B
Western Aircraft Control & Warning Wing
2nd Air Defense Missile Group
Southwestern Air Defense Force: Naha, Okinawa
9th Air Wing (Naha Air Base: 204SQ, F-15J/DJ, T-4; 304SQ, F-15J/DJ, T-4
Southwestern Air Command Support Squadron, T-4)
Southwestern Aircraft Control & Warning Wing
5th Air Defense Missile Group
Airborne Early Warning and Control Wing: Hamamatsu Air Base )
Flight Warning and Control Group: Hamamatsu Air Base
602SQ, E-767
Operation Inforation Squadron
Flight Alert Monitoring Group: Misawa Air Base
601SQ, E-2C/D: Misawa Air Base
603SQ, E-2C/D: Naha Air Base

Fleet

19 submarines
4 helicopter carriers
26 destroyers
10 frigates
6 destroyer escorts
3 landing ships
30 minesweepers
6 patrol boats
8 training ships
(21 auxiliaries)

All data off the wikipedia.

Although the US is allied with both countries, historical evidence (Cyprus, the Falklands) show that initially it would stand aside hoping both sides reach an acoomodation.

Discuss as you wish

[JasonJ]

Whichever side the UN backs.

[TrustMe]

The US has 31,000 troops in S. Korea whilist in Japan the US has 55,000.

Edited September 24, 2021 by TrustMe

[JasonJ]

No one cares. Thread opener certainly doesn't care.  Whatever the UN says.

[urbanoid]

>UN
>relevant

pick one

[JasonJ]

US leaves region, PRC helps instigate war between Kimchi and Daikon. US only cares to sells arms to both. PLAN is left further ahead in relative power. US has no a clue what just happened andall kts loud MSM sound bites of OMG just runs same stigma garbage.

[JasonJ]

OMG what a real important topic! I must now point out that both forces are in a tranformative point. And I must point out the difference current forces were structured. So many details! And it would be interesting and fun to run through. Or would have... who cares. *yawn* The opening certainly doesn't give a fuck. 

[RETAC21]

3 hours ago, TrustMe said:

The US has 31,000 troops in S. Korea whilist in Japan the US has 55,000.

Yep. but look at what happened when Turkey invaded Cyprus. Why would the US piss off one of its allies when it could do nothing?

[RETAC21]

3 hours ago, JasonJ said:

OMG what a real important topic! I must now point out that both forces are in a tranformative point. And I must point out the difference current forces were structured. So many details! And it would be interesting and fun to run through. Or would have... who cares. *yawn* The opening certainly doesn't give a fuck. 

Instead of having a tantrum you could contribute something valuable.

[JasonJ]

13 minutes ago, RETAC21 said:

Instead of having a tantrum you could contribute something valuable.

Well.... ROK mil is in transformative status. Two big points.. uno, they are doing more navy buildup and, dos they want to reduce manpoweer but increase pay and get off the mandatory service requirement. Japan's もis in transformative status now with increase in budget and range increase for all sorts of 유도탄.  Soooooo speculating a 戦い in 2030s will have to take into account the result of the 2020s transformative phase.

Edited September 24, 2021 by JasonJ

[urbanoid]

Doesn't Japan have a problem with not just with increasing manpower, but with meeting  current requirements as well? Looks like even GATE didn't help, too bad that realistically there won't be any portal to parallel world with big boobed elves and 1000 year old goth lolitas. 
 

 

[sunday]

Then there is the J-pop against K-pop angle, but I do not have enough resolve to go find multimedia examples.

[urbanoid]

I like J-, K- is cancer.

[bojan]

Cancer vs plague, some choice.

[Simon Tan]

Whoever turns to Chynah, wins.

[RETAC21]

6 minutes ago, Simon Tan said:

Whoever turns to Chynah, wins.

Wins a bear embrace from Chynah, some win.

 

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, JasonJ said:

Well.... ROK mil is in transformative status. Two big points.. uno, they are doing more navy buildup and, dos they want to reduce manpoweer but increase pay and get off the mandatory service requirement. Japan's もis in transformative status now with increase in budget and range increase for all sorts of 유도탄.  Soooooo speculating a 戦い in 2030s will have to take into account the result of the 2020s transformative phase.

Well, numbers aren't the whole picture, ROK can create a ocean navy, but to confront whom? China is too big, Japan strong enough, so are they going to be America's sepoys?

[Simon Tan]

Why would Worst Korea get into a shooting war with Japan before getting Best Korea on board?

[RETAC21]

2 minutes ago, Simon Tan said:

Why would Worst Korea get into a shooting war with Japan before getting Best Korea on board?

I dunno, but Nobu seems to believe the Worst Koreans need to boost their ego, and it won't be the last time that a country saw war as a solution, so maybe there's really something to it. 

And it makes a twisted kind of sense when you take into account Worst Korean plans to develop aircraft carriers and sub launched ballistic missiles.

[JasonJ]

5 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Well, numbers aren't the whole picture, ROK can create a ocean navy, but to confront whom? China is too big, Japan strong enough, so are they going to be America's sepoys?

https://youtu.be/8qZG-fGEsV0

[Nobu]

The two possible triggers would be: 1) A military operation rectifying Korea's illegal occupation of Takeshima by storm; 2) An incident in or over international waters.

I also don't see Washington responding to either with anything but neutrality at first, apart from holding its nose and vetoing any anti-Japanese UNSC resolution that comes up. Takeshima falls into that grey zone of being ambiguous enough to give Washington room to maneuver re: awkward defense treaty obligations.

Yep, it lasts until the UNSC P5 is able to reach a consensus, which will take a while as the powers sort out just who is on whose side.

That leaves room for a limited war, and the Japanese Navy must be ready for it. The Koreans have been wanting one for the better part of a century. They are now rich enough to afford it.

Simon, the North Koreans already have their brothers to the south on board. Seoul would probably have a popular uprising on its hands if it tried to stay out of it.

[sunday]

2 hours ago, JasonJ said:

https://youtu.be/8qZG-fGEsV0

Ha!

https://youtu.be/mVrN-j_Uc0U

 

[Simon Tan]

The idea of of the JGSDF actually conducting a real live military operatioon is farcical though the idea of a Korean tag team to kick the snot out of Japan is oddly appealing.

[Nobu]

Tag team or not, there will be blood in the water. Which is fitting, because it's thicker than it.

The chances of a military confrontation between Japan and Korea are as high or higher than of one between Japan and China in my opinion.

I still think the strategy of waiting the comfort women issue out is the right move. The trick is to give the aggrieved party enough face to make it work.

[Simon Tan]

Korean occupation of actual Japanese home islands is both apt and fitting. It also relieves the demographic issue. Lots of nice Best Koreans.