sundry volcanic eruptions Canary Islands volcano is erupting.

[RETAC21]

2 hours ago, lucklucky said:

It is important for Spain that the island is inhabited. If the insurance would astronomically because of vulcano, not many or no one would live there.

But note that a substantial part of that inhabitation is relatively recent, plus eruptions are rare by human standards:

El Hierro: 1793 and 2011

Lanzarote: 1730-36 and 1824

Tenerife: 1430;  1704-1706; 1798 and 1909

La Palma: 1470-92; 1585; 1677; 1712; 1949; 1971 and now

So the volcanoes are active, but also unpredictable

Irrespective of insurance, declaring it a disaster zone allow the victims to ask for financial relief, but even if insured, in terms of loss, it's going to be total as even the land will be worthless

[lucklucky]

I was expecting more occurrences.

 

Looking at live feed it seems the activity is going down.

Edited September 23, 2021 by lucklucky

[RETAC21]

25 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

I was expecting more occurrences.

 

Looking at live feed it seems the activity is going down.

According to a vulcanist in place, the volcano has become more explosive as it seems to have intersected with an acuifer

[sunday]

Concise precis video

This video by German guy is interesting as it shows the usual life in a village near the volcano.

 

Edited September 23, 2021 by sunday

[DKTanker]

6 hours ago, rmgill said:

The land the island is all made up of is all volcanic rock is it not? The hotspot is under La Palma right? 

If so, not a black swan event. 

But is suspension of disbelief.

[lucklucky]

4 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

According to a vulcanist in place, the volcano has become more explosive as it seems to have intersected with an acuifer

Seeing now the night live feed of the usual vent it seems with same intensity as before.

[sunday]

Good information here

For instance:

Timelapse of the pyrocumulus on top of the volcano:

Nice explosion in second 10:

 

[sunday]

20 hours ago, rmgill said:

The land the island is all made up of is all volcanic rock is it not? The hotspot is under La Palma right? 

If so, not a black swan event. 

I wonder if the Black Swan event concept has been abused.

For instance, when one engages in known dangerous activities because he is not accepting the activities are dangerous, and consequently gets hurt, Is that a Black Swan event, or simply the usual manner Nature rewards the stupids?

According to Taleb:

Quote

What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.

Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'.

Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme 'impact', and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.

A volcano destroying structures built in its flanks is no outlier whatsoever, for starters. Actually, that is what volcanos do.

Finally, Taleb gives as examples of Black Swan events:
 

Quote

 He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 11, 2001 attacks as examples of black swan events.

 

[DB]

Ah, much better. post-hoc rationalisation that the event was "obvious" rather than being genuinely predictable.

[RETAC21]

Don't think this image has been posted:

[Stuart Galbraith]

The way WW1 started might be attributed to a Black Swan. But that there was a Black Swan was no surprise to anyone at all, it had nearly happened 2 years before at Agadir. There were even British statesmen saying it would probably eventually start due to some damn fool thing in the Balkans.

Dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Historian Niall Ferguson claims (and I for one believe him) that in the late 1980's he was working in a major UK newspaper, and had a story spiked after a visit to East Germany, claiming that the DDR was on the Brink of Collapse. About 6 months later it did. Granted  that is not the same as the collapse of the USSR, but there cant have been many people who didnt think it was an eventual likelihood after the wall fell, even if the manner in which it happened was a surprise. Not much need for a Socialist state with the death of class war.

If you are going to look at Black Swan events, I think examples like the Titanic disaster, Tay Bridge disaster or the Evergiven are better examples. On the other hand, they are not nearly as sexy.

[lucklucky]

2 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Don't think this image has been posted:

Some lucky houses there.

[sunday]

Excellent article about the geological history of La Palma island, and the current eruption

https://www.volcanocafe.org/the-making-of-la-palma/

Eruption is intensifying, another fissure has opened, and large lapilli is failing. There has been a new evacuation order.

Edited September 24, 2021 by sunday

[RETAC21]

1 hour ago, lucklucky said:

Some lucky houses there.

Maybe not so much, as the lava has wiped off water, electric and sanitary infrastructure apparently

[RETAC21]

Volcano God is angry

 

[sunday]

Currently, lava is getting more fluid, and eroding the cone of cinders.
 

 

[lucklucky]

Seems to have opened a new vent.

[seahawk]

2 actually.

[lucklucky]

Live from another angle.

 

3 hours ago, seahawk said:

2 actually.

Thanks.

[sunday]

Recent paper (2021) about seismicity in La Palma, with geological history.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82292-3#Abs1

Some erupted lava is quite fluid now. Not up to Hawaiian or Icelandic levels, but on Etna-like levels.
 

 

Edited September 25, 2021 by sunday

[lucklucky]

Lava more fluid, is it good or bad? 

 

 

[RETAC21]

17 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Lava more fluid, is it good or bad? 

 

 

Depends, means it's hotter, less gas, and once gas is gone the eruption is supposed to stop, but it will run faster downhill, or not...

[sunday]

26 minutes ago, lucklucky said:

Lava more fluid, is it good or bad? 

 

 

A very viscous lava could prevent outgassing, leading to a buildup of pressure, and a very destructive explosion.

Very fluid lava moves quickly, thus it will be more difficult to get out of the way. However, that lava could find a path to the ocean more quickly, thus confining the damage.

I guess the problems are different, but both could be destructive.

Edited September 25, 2021 by sunday

[sunday]

Less volcanic tremor, less Strombolian (explosive) activity, more effusive activity. So yes, more fluid lava.

 

[lucklucky]

Guess it is good news, just let the lava going to sea.