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Canary Islands volcano is erupting.


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3 hours ago, DKTanker said:

Texas has some 5,000, 6,000 and 7,000 foot peaks, a fair bit taller than what Georgia has to offer.

Fair point, but I lean more towards green and cool ancient mountains. 

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19 hours ago, lucklucky said:

In this and floods cases building in a high level in relation to nearby surroundings is important.

It should be noted that most of these houses were built in the last 50 years or so, with the last eruption at La Palma happening in the South, and the one after that being an underwater volcano South of El Hierro, so there was the expectation that the hot spot was moving South, until this September.

According to the IGN geologist in place, venturing where the lava will go and at what speed is dependent on so many factors as to be only sure it's not going to go uphill.

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Drone view of the fissures from above

Drone footage of the damages. Note the high lava viscosity, and the relatively small volume erupted.
 

 

Edited by sunday
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3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

It should be noted that most of these houses were built in the last 50 years or so, with the last eruption at La Palma happening in the South, and the one after that being an underwater volcano South of El Hierro, so there was the expectation that the hot spot was moving South, until this September.

According to the IGN geologist in place, venturing where the lava will go and at what speed is dependent on so many factors as to be only sure it's not going to go uphill.

To be sure yes. But you can see the lava goes trough relief. In principle an house on the hill far from the micro valleys give more odds of not being afected. As a cost usually those hills can be the most windy places.

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5 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

It should be noted that most of these houses were built in the last 50 years or so, with the last eruption at La Palma happening in the South, and the one after that being an underwater volcano South of El Hierro, so there was the expectation that the hot spot was moving South, until this September.

According to the IGN geologist in place, venturing where the lava will go and at what speed is dependent on so many factors as to be only sure it's not going to go uphill.

How fast do people suppose the island is moving over the hotspot?  The current eruption is only 15 or so kilometers north of the previous on land eruption in 1971.  Put in perspective, the current Hawaiian hotspot is 35 kilometers south of the southern shore of Island of Hawaii.  Yet Kilauea remains an active volcano some 50 kilometers north of the hotspot.  Additionally the lava flow of Leilani Estates three years ago was fueled by fissure #8 some 70 kilometers from the hotspot.
The point being the hotspot is a general location, the magma chamber and the fissure into the mantle likely being quite extensive.  So it shouldn't come as any real surprise to the people of La Palma that the volcano is doing its thing once again.

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Haven't I mentioned in the past that I have dreams/visions like this? We're already having the 'Coastal Enclaves snubbing/othering/quarantining flyover country', now it's a volcano--I'm waiting for something unspeakable to rise up out of the lava to "purge humanity"

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On 9/21/2021 at 7:02 PM, DKTanker said:

Texas has some 5,000, 6,000 and 7,000 foot peaks, a fair bit taller than what Georgia has to offer.

Tad off topic, but I drove to Big Bend National Park little over 30 years ago from Indiana. It seemed longer to drive from from the Texas/Oklahoma border to the park than from Indiana to Texas state line. 

Nice national park though from what I remember of it. 

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59 minutes ago, Rick said:

It would be depressing to see a lava flow coming at your house. Wonder if insurance would cover this? The Spanish government? 

Yes, the govt through the usual insurance companies. But the structure must be insured beforehand.

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1 hour ago, Rick said:

It would be depressing to see a lava flow coming at your house. Wonder if insurance would cover this? The Spanish government? 

To be honest, if it wasn't privately insured, why should the government jump in to socialize the losses?

It just creates the moral hazard that building homes in at-risk terrain is A-OK because the government can't let it happen that people lose money over this.

It's an f'in' VOLCANO on which you've been building. If the unsurance premium was unaffordable, you should have sold the thing right there. A high insurance premium is neither a force of nature nor The Man denying you the opportunities that you deserve. It's a sign that you're underestimating the risks involved, that you're setting yourself up for a Black Swan event.

 

And there it is, a black, hot snake of molten rock flowing downhill, because that's what volcanos do.

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This is not a Black Swan event. This is a expected result of what volcanos do.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp

Quote

What Is a Black Swan?

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

A black swan is an extremely rare event with severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though after the fact, many falsely claim it should have been predictable.

Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy by negatively impacting markets and investments, but even the use of robust modeling cannot prevent a black swan event.

Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.

Will that future California earthquake, the Big One, a Black Swan event?

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Black Swan events are based on expectations, and those are entirely subjective. Thanksgiving is a Black Swan to turkeys, but not to Farmers. So if someone THINKS, how flawed his logic may be, that building a house on a volcano is "safe" and if he's then genuinely surprised when it is anything but, it still counts as a Black Sawn for that someone, even if he's objectively a fool.

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Seems an odd definition of "Black Swan" to me - if one applies root cause analysis to many catastrophic events then one can generate perfect hindsight for most. Truly random processes with calculated occurrence rates in the millions of years that have extinction level event severities would be "Black Swans" by my personal standards.

That contrasts with the definition given above in that hindsight is not needed - the events are predicted but are discounted by society in general because the occurrence rate is so low that it drops the priority below that society's tolerance threshold.

For events like this volcano, though, people are simply misunderstanding the level of risk that is carried and so are not making an appropriate risk assessment. Or maybe they are, and have insurance.

 

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27 minutes ago, rmgill said:

The land the island is all made up of is all volcanic rock is it not? The hotspot is under La Palma right? 

If so, not a black swan event. 

The northern part is composed of several extinct volcanoes. A bit like Hawaii island, the big one, and her volcanoes wrt Mauna Kea (extinct), Mauna Loa (low activity), and Kilauea (very active).

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