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Australia to Get Nuclear Submarines


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7 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Dunno futon, I just don't think Japan getting into a war with China over Taiwan is a good idea.  

For the Australian submarines, I think they make sense for Australia for home defense because they're a big country with lots of coast.  But when they start talking about Australian submarines defending Taiwan, I don't think that's a good idea for Australia either.

The inverse is more accurate actually: I just don't think China getting into a war with the US and/or Japan over Taiwan is a good idea. 

China produces a hefty amount of oil but far short of domestic needs. Oil importated from Russia account for only about 15% of China oil imports. Over 60% are from Africa and the ME. Those lines are easily cut beyond the 1st island chain. China's diplomacy failed to get the necessary cooperation to secure those lines to grant it freedom for an adventure of occupying Taiwan without significant non-military costs. Even if China is successful in occupying Taiwan, they aren't getting any replacement oil out of it. If China can't earn integration with Taiwan by peaceful means, then that's a strong indication that China isn't entitled to having Taiwan. China can lament about the century of humiliation. But if they reintroduce the practice of military conquest, they subject themselves to humiliation again. Their first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was purchased with it becoming a casino on the face of it. But now they do so much sabre rattling that any chance to elevate their military power without triggering a correlated increase in military power by other countries has been lost. That chance may return but not for some time.

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10 hours ago, futon said:

The inverse is more accurate actually: I just don't think China getting into a war with the US and/or Japan over Taiwan is a good idea. 

It's not only the military equation, fighting China's main client will have dire economic consequences even as the first shot is fired:

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

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1 minute ago, RETAC21 said:

It's not only the military equation, fighting China's main client will have dire economic consequences even as the first shot is fired:

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

If it goes down and its done, they be askin to return back to normal exporting scheme to rich US market with blood dropping from their busted nose. The whole Taiwan question be resolved the hard way. tuff nuggets. They ordered em. 

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As en example of how economic power can be leveraged, Go back in '85, when the French had the brilliant idea of sinking the Rainbow Warrior in NZ and executed it so rushedly that their spies got caught.

The NZ were rightfully pissed off and the 2 spies got sentences of 10 years, but after some guvmint reshuffling, the French were unwilling to let them rot, so they started negotiations which soon went nowhere as the NZs weren't about to let the matter drop. In order to motivate the NZ government, France started a dumping campaign to drive NZ butter off their markets in Algeria and imposed strict anti-drug controls on NZ wool, making it unusable. Eventually, the NZ government realised that the economic pain wasn't worth the principles of keeping those 2 in jail and they were released to French custody.

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Just now, futon said:

If it goes down and its done, they be askin to return back to normal exporting scheme to rich US market with blood dropping from their busted nose. The whole Taiwan question be resolved the hard way. tuff nuggets. They ordered em. 

Also, a lost war over Taiwan will give Taiwan the legitimacy to proclaim independence. Any way you look at it, it'a a lose-lose proposition for the PRC, but that hasn't kept others from starting wars.

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Just now, RETAC21 said:

Also, a lost war over Taiwan will give Taiwan the legitimacy to proclaim independence. Any way you look at it, it'a a lose-lose proposition for the PRC, but that hasn't kept others from starting wars.

E X A C T L Y

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15 hours ago, futon said:

The inverse is more accurate actually: I just don't think China getting into a war with the US and/or Japan over Taiwan is a good idea. 

China produces a hefty amount of oil but far short of domestic needs. Oil importated from Russia account for only about 15% of China oil imports. Over 60% are from Africa and the ME. Those lines are easily cut beyond the 1st island chain. 

China's strategic oil reserves are estimated at 400 million barrels, on 12.7 million barrels consumed per day.  Capacity is estimated at 500 million barrels, and this will continue to climb past 500 million towards a billion.   The 12.7 million consumed could probably be more like 4 million per day with rationing, and the 680,000 barrels per day from Russia is only a fraction of the 11 million barrels per day Russia produces.  Figure 1.5 million barrels from Russia daily if necessary, 5 million domestically, and rationing to 8 million barrels per day consumed, the 400 million barrels in the Chinese reserves would last over two years.  Of course, that assumes the Chinese can't ration down to 6 million barrels a day in comsumption, in which case, China can outlast an oil blockade indefinitely.

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It's not only the military equation, fighting China's main client will have dire economic consequences even as the first shot is fired:

Japan exported about 6.5 billion USD of food in 2019.  It imported 65 billion dollars of food in 2019, so Japan is a net importer of food to the tune of about 60 billion per year.  So, from that, I'm not sure Japan can win the game you're urging her to play.

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4 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

Also, a lost war over Taiwan will give Taiwan the legitimacy to proclaim independence. Any way you look at it, it'a a lose-lose proposition for the PRC, but that hasn't kept others from starting wars.

Two things.  First, why would China start a war with Taiwan that Taiwan would have a chance of winning?  Xi strikes me as pretty authoritarian, but he doesn't strike me as stupid.  Second, even if Taiwan proclaims independence, what difference is that going to make to the ultimate outcome?

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2 hours ago, glenn239 said:

Two things.  First, why would China start a war with Taiwan that Taiwan would have a chance of winning?  Xi strikes me as pretty authoritarian, but he doesn't strike me as stupid.  Second, even if Taiwan proclaims independence, what difference is that going to make to the ultimate outcome?

First, what does China need to guarantee a victory over Taiwan with 100% certainty according to you? 

Second, I don't know, since I didn't say it did. 

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1 hour ago, Laser Shark said:

A victory over Chinese forces would undoubtedly boost Taiwanese nationalism and resolve. That makes it more much more difficult to annex it, no matter how the Chinese choose to go about it from there on.

One could always hope that a loss to Taiwan would bring down the CCP and bring the return of the ROC as the national government of all China! 

 

I'm also hoping to win the lottery and marry a supermodel.

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Given that 80+ % of all lottery winners manage to spend it all within four years or less, a supermodel, willing to marry a non-rich me, is definitely the smart choice.

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  • 2 weeks later...

After decisions to get rid of the Tiger helicopters and the Shortfin Barracuda, Australia has decided to divest itself of its complete troubled fleet of MRH-90 helicopters and acquire Black Hawks and Sea Hawks instead.

Edited by Daan
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Just now, Daan said:

After decisions to get rid of the Tiger helicopters and the Shortfin Barracuda, Australia has decided to divest itself of its complete fleet of troubled MRH-90 helicopters and acquire Black Hawks and Sea Hawks instead.

Good decision. NH-90s are expensive junk.

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  • 2 weeks later...

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