Stuart Galbraith Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, glenn239 said: Yeah, checked and saw that after I posted, but did not think the difference between 100 to 1 vs. 60 to 1 undermined the basic point, so I left it as is. The discussion is talking about Mahan for some reason. But an actual conflict will look more like LeMay. Do you think LeMay was concerned about invasion convoys to bring about victory? I suspect that most defensive strategies that a public can understand and endorse, generally speaking, do not involve nuking oneself. My read of history suggests that you can't fix stupid, but you can wipe it off the face of the Earth as a warning to others. IMO, this discussion is veering a bit offbase about a war with China being talk of Mahan and sea lanes and such. IMO, a war with China could easily veer into being the most destructive conflict in human history. Nobody gives a fuck about sea lanes if the port on the other side is a glowing smoking ruin, right? Right. And the people relying on that port to feed themselves in winter can't eat a copy of Mahan either. A country like Australia, which is a very small country, like Canada, should think very long and very hard before it drinks the Cool Aid served by idiots to actually participate as an air base for attacks on mainland China. Like Canada, I think Australia should take a defensive stance and be a Switzerland that fights for self-preservation, but does not allow one single bomber sortie. So, nuclear subs to me seem fine, but not allowing USAF to use Australia as a forward air base. Australia may not be a large country in population compared to some. But small its not. Its a continent. Its also far enough removed from China to not be a really great base for air attacks. Im not sure how this idea arose. The US has Guam and Diego Garcia if it really wants to give that a go. Its got the air to air refuelling to make that work. Why would it want to displace to Australia, requiring all new airfields and ammunition facilities, still thousands of miles away from where they need to go? Indonesia or the Phillipines would be far better if so needed. How will a war with China start? Probably they will either get a bit spiteful at a passing warship or aeroplane, or have a go at a neighbouring nation like Taiwan. Its unlikely in such circumstances Australia would get involved. OTOH, its perfectly reasonable to develop the tools just in case it gets dragged in. China has threatened Australia, just for asking where the hell Coronavirus 19 came from. Its right they take threats seriously. Personally speaking, if Australia wants the right to nuke itself, by jingo, I demand it has the right to nuke itself. It seems a perfectly reasonable solution to a problem that can never possibly arise because China doesnt have the capablity either to invade or launch air attacks on Australia. The only way the PRC can hurt Australia is economically. OTOH, with submarines, I would suggest Australia has a lot more capacity to hurt the PRC through sea denial. You dont need a Mahan bible to grasp that, you just need to look at two world wars.
urbanoid Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 43 minutes ago, glenn239 said: Like Canada, I think Australia should take a defensive stance and be a Switzerland that fights for self-preservation, but does not allow one single bomber sortie. So, nuclear subs to me seem fine, but not allowing USAF to use Australia as a forward air base. I'm sure that the Chinese will leave them alone after they get rid of American White Devils and their local lapdogs. Just out of the goodness of Comrade Xi's heart. Just like the Soviets would have left Switzerland or Sweden alone if they managed to defeat NATO in Europe.
urbanoid Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 (edited) deleted Edited October 1, 2021 by urbanoid
glenn239 Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 35 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Australia may not be a large country in population compared to some. But small its not. Its a continent. Its also far enough removed from China to not be a really great base for air attacks. Im not sure how this idea arose. Deepening defense ties with the US and Britain seems fine, but I don't think Australia has much if any interest in being another Guam or Okinawa. Quote Indonesia or the Phillipines would be far better if so needed. With the Philippines we (Canada) were sending them our trash for decades and they were burying it in landfills while we bragged about how "Green" we are. Then a few years ago, if you can imagine, they got tired of burying our garbage by their villages, and started to sending the containers back to us, and it was over. So, I doubt either they or Indonesia is particularly eager to become a firing range, so my guess would be that neither will be too eager to pick sides too quickly. Quote How will a war with China start? Probably they will either get a bit spiteful at a passing warship or aeroplane, or have a go at a neighbouring nation like Taiwan. Its unlikely in such circumstances Australia would get involved. OTOH, its perfectly reasonable to develop the tools just in case it gets dragged in. China has threatened Australia, just for asking where the hell Coronavirus 19 came from. Its right they take threats seriously. How it finishes would concern me even more than how it starts. Great Power wars tend to end when one of them have taken (and inflicted) about 10% of their population as casualties. 10% of 1.5 billion is 150 million. Quote Personally speaking, if Australia wants the right to nuke itself, by jingo, I demand it has the right to nuke itself. It seems a perfectly reasonable solution to a problem that can never possibly arise because China doesnt have the capablity either to invade or launch air attacks on Australia. The only way the PRC can hurt Australia is economically. OTOH, with submarines, I would suggest Australia has a lot more capacity to hurt the PRC through sea denial. You dont need a Mahan bible to grasp that, you just need to look at two world wars. And I bet the Romans noticed that there is nothing braver in a gladiator match than a fan in the stands at the top level of the Coliseum. Myself, I somewhat doubt that a country which goes into hysterics about 10 new Covid cases is really going to have the political stamina. Also, I do not believe even you believe that the, "only way the PRC can hurt Australia is economically" even as you typed it.
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 Who has asked for it to be another Guam or Diego Garcia? Ive no idea where you are getting this from, nobody seems to have proposed any infrastructure in Australia beyond building a submarine base. Ive already told you, I see no reason to do it. As for the rest, you have built another sandcastle on a pin. Why? And why do you assume another world war wouldnt have global consequences, including the guys in the top of the Colloseum as you put it.
glenn239 Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 32 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: As for the rest, you have built another sandcastle on a pin. Why? So you're not quite so sure that the only harm China can do to Australia is "economic"? Good to know. Quote Who has asked for it to be another Guam or Diego Garcia? I've no idea where you are getting this from Whatever. I think Australia is wise to invest in defense, and nuclear submarines might actually not be a bad idea for it. But I don't see where anything along the lines of a more offensive posture is a wise course of action.
urbanoid Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 Australia participating in defense of Taiwan/Vietnam/Japan/whatever, together with US/UK, would be a 'defensive' or 'offensive' posture?
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 2 hours ago, glenn239 said: So you're not quite so sure that the only harm China can do to Australia is "economic"? Good to know. Whatever. I think Australia is wise to invest in defense, and nuclear submarines might actually not be a bad idea for it. But I don't see where anything along the lines of a more offensive posture is a wise course of action. Show me how China can bomb Australia. Show me how they can invade Australia. They cant. Sure they can nuke it. But they could nuke Canada too if this is the pessimistic worldview in which you live. if none of those are true, then please enlighten me, how else can they harm Australia? Burn Men at work albums? 34 minutes ago, urbanoid said: Australia participating in defense of Taiwan/Vietnam/Japan/whatever, together with US/UK, would be a 'defensive' or 'offensive' posture? I don't see anyone proposing that. Clearly China would perceive it as offensive, but so what.
glenn239 Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Show me how China can bomb Australia. Show me how they can invade Australia. They cant. Sure they can nuke it. But they could nuke Canada too if this is the pessimistic worldview in which you live. At least we are no longer talking Mahan in a world where LeMay rules. The Australian submarines under discussion will be in commission from 2040. China right now lacks offensive capability, but by 2030 they'll have rectified that and by 2040 it'll be worse. So at the moment you are correct, China lacks conventional domination of its region beyond about 250 miles from its own shores. But by the time of this discussion, after 2030? I should think that the Chinese military is now going to expand even faster than ever. Quote I don't see anyone proposing that. Clearly China would perceive it as offensive, but so what. US forces use 3rd parties for air attacks on other countries all the time, and have routine contingency planning in place for situations that might arise. In some cases, (ie, Iran), this doesn't seem too serious. In other cases, (ie, Russia, China), such attacks are probably not within the host country's interests. Edited October 1, 2021 by glenn239
glenn239 Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, urbanoid said: Australia participating in defense of Taiwan/Vietnam/Japan/whatever, together with US/UK, would be a 'defensive' or 'offensive' posture? That's a very good question.
sunday Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 Australia sent troops to the Vietnam War. It could be argued that they were defending South Vietnam from the aggression of North Vietnam.
urbanoid Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 The whole point of military alliances is to act together before it's too late, because if you don't stick together while you can, they'll hang you separately, some sooner, some later. Straya is in similar position vs China as everyone else in the region. If they don't support the US containment of China, the US may/will be out and they'll be alone. And then they will lose, one way or the other. It was pretty much the same in Europe during the Cold war, Western Europeans didn't have a prayer (or maybe they did, purely theoretically) of stopping USSR without American help. The US, OTOH, didn't merely seek self-preservation, but a self-preservation as a world hegemon. USSR contesting US hegemony with continental Europe under its control would have been much easier than with just Eastern/Central part of it. In both cases the US can withdraw thousands of miles and isolate itself in North America, 'safe' behind the oceans. Still, the US chooses to stop the rival on his doorstep sooner rather than wait and stop (or try to stop) them on their own doorstep later. Countries closer to the 'troublemaker' would be smart to join while they have someone to rely upon, alone they are doomed.
Simon Tan Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 The purpose of alliances is to get auxillia for colonial adventures no?
RETAC21 Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 51 minutes ago, Simon Tan said: The purpose of alliances is to get auxillia for colonial adventures no? There, FIFY, it can't be colonial if you end up with no colonies. Re Oz, yes it's big, but the Chinese overlords would only need the bits they are interested in: Helpfully, the Ozians are concentrated away from most of the resources: http://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2017/07/Population-density-australia-June-2016.jpg
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 Why do they need to invade it, if they can buy it?
RETAC21 Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Why do they need to invade it, if they can buy it? Only if the Australians act naughty and won't behave when told to. The Chinese don't need to invade, just give the impression they might, if annoyed.
futon Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 This thread will go for 20 more years. TN's life support is guaranteed.
RETAC21 Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, futon said: This thread will go for 20 more years. TN's life support is guaranteed. You need not worry, see in the AFV forum when the Uk Surges Ahead With Challenger 2 Upgrade thread started and it's still going strong!
futon Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, RETAC21 said: You need not worry, see in the AFV forum when the Uk Surges Ahead With Challenger 2 Upgrade thread started and it's still going strong! True dat.
Adam_S Posted October 2, 2021 Author Posted October 2, 2021 56 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Why do they need to invade it, if they can buy it? They seem to have backed off on that one, big time. https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/chinese-investment-in-australia-plunges-to-record-low#:~:text=Chinese investment in Australia fell
Stuart Galbraith Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 1 hour ago, RETAC21 said: You need not worry, see in the AFV forum when the Uk Surges Ahead With Challenger 2 Upgrade thread started and it's still going strong! Well its still kinda surging, so.... 32 minutes ago, Adam_S said: They seem to have backed off on that one, big time. https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/chinese-investment-in-australia-plunges-to-record-low#:~:text=Chinese investment in Australia fell Id be curious to know what Chinese investment in New Zealand is like.
Adam_S Posted October 2, 2021 Author Posted October 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said: Id be curious to know what Chinese investment in New Zealand is like. Not huge apparently. I mean how many sheep does one country need? https://www.asianz.org.nz/our-resources/reports/asian-investment-in-new-zealand/
futon Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 Kaga and Murasame stayed at port Darwin from the 15th to 18th. On the 18th, Australia's Maitland trained with them. https://www.mod.go.jp/msdf/release/202109/20210919ex.pdf
sunday Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Simon Tan said: The purpose of alliances is to get auxillia for colonial adventures no? See US and Israel.
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