Australia to Get Nuclear Submarines

[Josh]

On 9/19/2021 at 12:46 PM, RETAC21 said:

This map is non-sense, SSK only move slowly in the operations area, they transit at more or less the same speed as a SSN, the key difference is that the SSN can stay in the Op area until they run short on food and such, can make end runs arounf convoys and there are assorted tactical advantages that a SSK doesn't have

Not at all true. Look at the installed power of any SSK's diesel's versus its electric motors. My understanding is that even the Collins is limited to ~12 knots rate of advance, assuming a high indiscretion rate, using all three of its diesels. The installed diesel power of most SSKs is literally an entire order of magnitude lower than a nuke plant, and the power generation of an AIP system another order of magnitude lower than that - which is why Collins doesn't use one; it wouldn't have generated enough power for the short patrol cycle to be worth the power and complexity.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Josh

[DB]

Barrow is currently building two Astutes and two Dreadnoughts. Dates for them clearing the shipyard are not easy to determine, because construction times have been very variable. The second of the two Astutes, Agincourt, is due to commission in 2026 so one could presume that Agamemnon will be earlier than that. I think that the Dreadnoughts would follow.

There is only one slipway at Barrow, but construction is mainly performed on modular "rings" that are fitted out vertically and then rotated to be assembled all in the cover of a Dock Hall. Judging by the Google Maps view, there is be room to assemble two submarines in the Devonshire Dock Hall at a time, possibly three.

This is academic, however, as it seems likely that final assembly would have to take place in Australia.

On leasing, if the current UK tasking was to ensure that a submarine was in place in the Pacific, I could see that role being taken over by one of the Astutes being transferred to Aus for operations, with refit rotations as per normal RN tasking. That would presumably be possible when the full Astute fleet was completed.

[Josh]

The US goal of this agreement appears to be getting US access to RAAF bases for their bombers and their munitions in return for the tech transfer. The nuclear sub arrangement isn't a deal; its just a statement of intent, just a statement of intent at the moment. Attack was a failed weapons program that the RAN would have likely backed out of regardless.

[Simon Tan]

No SSNs will be built in Garden Island. It is just not worth the effort. They could just pay everyone to do nothing for less. And get a better product. 

US SSNs are a much better fit for RAN for interoperability and logistical support. Ramping up US production is entirely possible, especially if AUD pays some of it.

Oz taxpayers are being suckered by the Chicom bogeyman. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

4 hours ago, DB said:

Barrow is currently building two Astutes and two Dreadnoughts. Dates for them clearing the shipyard are not easy to determine, because construction times have been very variable. The second of the two Astutes, Agincourt, is due to commission in 2026 so one could presume that Agamemnon will be earlier than that. I think that the Dreadnoughts would follow.

There is only one slipway at Barrow, but construction is mainly performed on modular "rings" that are fitted out vertically and then rotated to be assembled all in the cover of a Dock Hall. Judging by the Google Maps view, there is be room to assemble two submarines in the Devonshire Dock Hall at a time, possibly three.

This is academic, however, as it seems likely that final assembly would have to take place in Australia.

On leasing, if the current UK tasking was to ensure that a submarine was in place in the Pacific, I could see that role being taken over by one of the Astutes being transferred to Aus for operations, with refit rotations as per normal RN tasking. That would presumably be possible when the full Astute fleet was completed.

Here is a crazy idea. What if we built an 8th Astute, leased it, to or one already in service, to Australia, and by the time Australia is due to take delivery of the first SSN it builds, HMS Astute is due for withdrawal and will want a replacement.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, Simon Tan said:

No SSNs will be built in Garden Island. It is just not worth the effort. They could just pay everyone to do nothing for less. And get a better product. 

US SSNs are a much better fit for RAN for interoperability and logistical support. Ramping up US production is entirely possible, especially if AUD pays some of it.

Oz taxpayers are being suckered by the Chicom bogeyman. 

US boats are rather longer, deeper in draught, and require more crew. And its not as if the Astutes dont have a sonar fit at least as good anyway.

I suspect it will come down to Virginia's in the end, but it wont suit Australia's requirements as well, except for VLS. And I suspect there are aways you could do with an Asute if you play games with the sail.

[alejandro_]

Quote

The French boats use much lower levels of enrichment and require several refuelings, as I understand it. The advantage of the latest US/UK boats* would be no recore and thus no need for the more extensive levels of nuclear infrastructure. In fact I suspect everything nuclear related will be handled by the UK/US, from production to training to disposal. Really the only way it could work.

I had not thought about this factor, thanks.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

German minister: Submarine dispute is 'a wake-up call'

33m ago

Germany's European Affairs minister said it will be difficult to rebuild trust between the EU and its allies as the US, UK, and Australia insist that long-term relations with France won't be affected.

Tensions in the trans-Atlantic alliance overshadowed the beginning of the United Nations General Assembly, as EU foreign ministers met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York to discuss the fallout from a US-Australian trade deal that left France in the lurch.

Germany's European Affairs Minister Michael Roth called the row a "wake-up call" for the bloc.

"We cannot exclusively rely on others but must cooperate, and we have to overcome our differences (within the EU) and speak with one voice," he told reporters in Brussels, adding that "lost trust has to be rebuilt — and this will obviously not be easy. But we want to make a constructive contribution."

Two EU diplomats also told reporters that European Union ambassadors have postponed discussions to prepare for a new EU-US trade and technology council on September 29 in protest of the submarine deal between the US and Australia.

EU demands answers

Earlier on Monday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said there are questions that need to be answered.

She told CNN that "one of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable. We want to know what happened and why."

Josep Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, said EU ministers expressed "solidarity" with France.

World leaders and top diplomats are in New York for the 76th UN General Assembly, which will kick off with key speeches on Tuesday.

[...] 

https://m.dw.com/en/german-minister-submarine-dispute-is-a-wake-up-call/a-59245294

[Simon Tan]

There really isnt any massive benefit to single fuelling. You still need the ability to maintain the reactors. The boats could be fuelled in France etc. who would handle the spent fuel. 

The requirement to build in Oz would require the boats to be fuelled abroad, which meant shippping to fuel and running trials for propulsion before reshipping back for final fit out. Madness. 

The announcement is premature and really cocked up. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Pity they didnt show the same concern about a European nation being mistreated, when they threw us unceremoneously out of the Galileo project after sinking 1.2 Billion into the project, with no refund offered. Hilariously they are going cap in hand to ask us back, presumably because they figured out they need our funding.

If the EU want to wring their hands along with the French, they are just going to make themselves look as ridiculous as Macron does. Ive seen no similar support from the EU every time France undercuts Typhoon sales with Rafales.

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

19 minutes ago, Simon Tan said:

There really isnt any massive benefit to single fuelling. You still need the ability to maintain the reactors. The boats could be fuelled in France etc. who would handle the spent fuel. 

The requirement to build in Oz would require the boats to be fuelled abroad, which meant shippping to fuel and running trials for propulsion before reshipping back for final fit out. Madness. 

The announcement is premature and really cocked up. 

There seems from what little we know, an intent to build infrastructure to handle the submarines in Australia. I would assume that would include ability to maintain the reactors on site.

As for how we are going to handle moving the reactors to Australia, whether they will have the rods already in them, that is obviously going to be tricky. It may be easier to build the entire reactor compartment abroad, and plug it in as needed.

[BansheeOne]

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Pity they didnt show the same concern about a European nation being mistreated, when they threw us unceremoneously out of the Galileo project after sinking 1.2 Billion into the project, with no refund offered. Hilariously they are going cap in hand to ask us back, presumably because they figured out they need our funding.

If the EU want to wring their hands along with the French, they are just going to make themselves look as ridiculous as Macron does. Ive seen no similar support from the EU every time France undercuts Typhoon sales with Rafales.

That's just the difference between members and non-members of a club. Supporting your partners is the way it's supposed to work. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Which may be true, but doesnt explain why they suddenly hold the door open for the UK to return when it gets a bit hard to fund on their own.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1482873/galileo-eu-open-uk-access-galileo-satellite-network-brexit-oneweb

 

 

[seahawk]

The UK is better off funding GPS.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I think so, just for the comedy potential.

But it does illustrate the appalling hypocrisy here. Look how many sales the Rafale has cost Typhoon, even before we left the EU. Did we jump up and down in rage and say what bad allies the French are? No. And being a pan European project, Typhoon is arguably of far greater significance to Europe than these French boats ever were.

When the UK acts all little Britain about something, then we get slammed by the EU as bad European partners. When the French do it, the EU bend over backwards for them. its pathetic.

[glenn239]

45 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If the EU want to wring their hands along with the French, they are just going to make themselves look as ridiculous as Macron does. Ive seen no similar support from the EU every time France undercuts Typhoon sales with Rafales.

 

 

Might be more smoke than fire there; I would doubt the Germans are too keen on getting too far into this mess.  Maybe the French could sell nuclear boats to some other EU members instead?   That being said, it seems clear that this has damaged NATO unity for a combat system that will have zero effect on anything for another 20 years.   

Edited September 21, 2021 by glenn239

[Stuart Galbraith]

Not just the Germans. Is it really going to be in the interests of the Poles or Hungarians to side with the French in decrying the American relationship? Its not as if they would get anything out of the French deal anyway.

I dont believe anyone else in NATO would want SSN's. With the possible exception of the Netherlands and the Italians, and I think they would look askance at the cost anyway.

One should not fudge what are purely French national ambitions for European ones. If the EU are falling for this nonsense at French request, it wont be to their benefit if NATO is eroded as a result.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Stuart Galbraith

[BansheeOne]

53 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Which may be true, but doesnt explain why they suddenly hold the door open for the UK to return when it gets a bit hard to fund on their own.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1482873/galileo-eu-open-uk-access-galileo-satellite-network-brexit-oneweb

You're aware that in the typical fashion of the "Express" and it's ilk, the text actually says the opposite of what is claimed? Namely that it was the UK's decision to leave, and the EU's position is that the door is "still open", and the ball in London's court. Which is far from the EU doing a "u-turn" and coming cap in hand.

I suppose the level of involvement wouldn't be the same, as the EU has indeed expressed reservation about sharing sensitive data outside the block, and I guess the UK just wanted the previous regime to continue. But as even China, India, Israel etc. are partners, I wouldn't know why the UK shouldn't be. 

56 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

But it does illustrate the appalling hypocrisy here. Look how many sales the Rafale has cost Typhoon, even before we left the EU.

I don't know, how many? Particularly the ones already agreed? 

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 hour ago, BansheeOne said:

You're aware that in the typical fashion of the "Express" and it's ilk, the text actually says the opposite of what is claimed? Namely that it was the UK's decision to leave, and the EU's position is that the door is "still open", and the ball in London's court. Which is far from the EU doing a "u-turn" and coming cap in hand.

I suppose the level of involvement wouldn't be the same, as the EU has indeed expressed reservation about sharing sensitive data outside the block, and I guess the UK just wanted the previous regime to continue. But as even China, India, Israel etc. are partners, I wouldn't know why the UK shouldn't be. 

I don't know, how many? Particularly the ones already agreed? 

Well that certainly isnt MY rememberance of what happened. Galileo was bound up in the interminable Brexit negotiations, and it was insisted our leaving with Brexit was a choice to leave Galileo. Our choosing to leave was in the same way someone holding a gun to your head asks you if you are feeling lucky.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_(satellite_navigation)

In March 2018, the European Commission announced that the United Kingdom may be excluded from parts of the project (especially relating to the secured service PRS) following its exit from the European Union (EU). As a result, Airbus plans to relocate work on the Ground Control Segment (GCS) from its Portsmouth premises to an EU state.^[4] British officials have been reported to be seeking legal advice on whether they can reclaim the €1.4 billion invested by the United Kingdom, of the €10 billion spent to date.^[83] In a speech at the EU Institute for Security Studies conference, the EU Chief Negotiator in charge of the Brexit negotiations, Michel Barnier, stressed the EU position that the UK had decided to leave the EU and thus all EU programmes, including Galileo.^[84] In August 2018, it was reported the UK will look to create a competing satellite navigation system to Galileo post-Brexit.^[85] In December 2018, British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK would no longer seek to reclaim the investment, and Science Minister Sam Gyimah resigned over the matter.^[86]

Here is the thing. France agreed to develop Eurofighter with its European allies. Then it opted out, ostensibly because the aircraft could not operate from a Carrier, but just as likely because they realised it would erode French market share in the lighweight fighter market. So we have had them eroding market share from Typhoon, something which Europe could never accuse of us of not being full European players in.  The French have been directly competing with it for orders for decades, eroding pan European defence which is so in vogue these days. Did we complain? No, we sucked it up and put it down to French being French.

And its not just France doing it. When Germany dumped a couple of thousand used leopard2's on the second hand market, and destroyed any small chance of Challenger 2 or Leclerc securing export markets, we didnt whine and wail and complain to the EU about Germany being a poor ally. No, we sucked it up and got on with it.

So no disrespect here, but Im finding these attempts to paint us as poor Allies and that France has been treated shabbily as wholly absent from any corporate memory of how france has acted in the past 40 years in its weapons deals. Im finding Macrons and latterly the EU's  hysteria as at  best blatent hypocracy, at worst a attempt to weaponize a poor political situation to its own advantage.

And if the EU follows France down this blind alley, as Ive no doubt it shall, they are the one whom will be the poorer security wise for it.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britains-nuclear-submarines-to-use-australia-as-base-for-indo-pacific-presence-rw6mz0p03

Britain’s nuclear-powered submarines are to use Australia as a base so that they can have a more persistent presence in the Indo-Pacific region under plans discussed by ministers.

Senior government sources said that the AUKUS pact could lead to the Royal Navy’s £1.4 billion Astute-class attack submarines undergoing deep maintenance in the region so they can stay deployed for longer rather than returning to the Faslane naval base in Scotland

[glenn239]

I doubt Scotland will be thrilled with losing the refit work.

[Stuart Galbraith]

As I think I posted in another thread, Scotland had got plenty on its plate already...

 

[Nobu]

One of the problems of instant coffee is that it tastes like garbage. RAN sub crew retention, morale, and quality may be an ongoing concern.

It takes 20 years to build an instant coffee SSN force. It will take more for them to build an SSN operating tradition.

[Nobu]

When they finally do, there is a chance they will just dump it again like they did the last time, because it was too hard for them to bother maintaining. 

Affirmative action solutions are fine and all until the game actually begins.

[Stuart Galbraith]

20 minutes ago, Nobu said:

One of the problems of instant coffee is that it tastes like garbage. RAN sub crew retention, morale, and quality may be an ongoing concern.

It takes 20 years to build an instant coffee SSN force. It will take more for them to build an SSN operating tradition.

Reintroduce the Rum ration.

6 minutes ago, Nobu said:

When they finally do, there is a chance they will just dump it again like they did the last time, because it was too hard for them to bother maintaining. 

Affirmative action solutions are fine and all until the game actually begins.

Not sure they can without losing the other incentives that have been promised. 

https://www.silicon.co.uk/e-innovation/artificial-intelligence/aukus-security-alliance-will-include-cybersecurity-ai-quantum-416571

And buried within this announcement was confirmation that the UK and the US will be sharing with Australia their expertise in cyber, AI and even quantum computing.

“AUKUS will foster deeper integration of security and defence-related science, technology, industrial bases and supply chains,” said the UK government.