Philippines wants F-16's

[Dawes]

Given their financial situation, are new Block 70/72 aircraft pretty much a pipe dream?

https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/Philippines_21-14.pdf

[JasonJ]

3 years ago, it was reported that Duterte declined F-16 offer from the US. A statement saying that it's a Philippines' pipedream puts all the implied careless thinking onto the Philippines when there is something in the US that may have a pipedream in selling US military equipment anywhere without a care of economic posture of its potential buyers may be.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2018/08/24/philippine-president-says-buying-us-f-16-jets-utterly-useless/

 

That aside, there's obviously defense needs for the Philippines. FA-50s are probably no match for things like J-10C, J-15, or J-16. Already with far inferior numbers, a slight quality edge could provide its worth in limited scenorios that are grey-zone or geopolitical posturing. For grey zone, the Philippines may be able to better stop a creep up of de factor control in southern areas of the South China Sea. PRC man-made island and airbase at Fiery Cross Reef  may host things like J-10Cs someday. J-10Cs would expand better de factor air control in the airspace towards the Philippines if the Philippines is only flying FA-50s. So a squadron of the latests F-16s would push back better to de factor air control. A geopolitical example would be Bashi Channel as that is an important strategic sea path way for 1) PRC ability to militarily pressure Taiwan, and 2) expand PRC naval presence into the open Pacific. That means that a US or anyone else, Taiwan, *cough* Japan *cough*, will have interest to clap down on the Bashi Channel serving as a gateway for PRC naval and air units. With the Philippines being the southern end of the Bashi Channel, they may rather have some ability to hinder PRC movement there instead of having the US coming knocking for more air base rights or something in that form, on Luzon in order to exact that pressure on PRC military units that seek to pass through the Bashi Channel. 

 

[Dawes]

A fair number of these FMS cases don't materialize for any number of reasons - political, financial, change of requirements, change of regimes, etc. In the end the Philippines may find a cheaper option somewhere else.

[Dawes]

Apparently an anti-shipping role is envisaged for these aircraft:

https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/Philippines_21-36.pdf

[JasonJ]

Information about the Philippines' multi-role fighter acquisition program.

http://maxdefense.blogspot.com/2021/06/philippine-air-force-makes-final-push.html?m=1

Edited June 25, 2021 by JasonJ

[Yama]

On 6/25/2021 at 4:43 AM, Dawes said:

A fair number of these FMS cases don't materialize for any number of reasons - political, financial, change of requirements, change of regimes, etc. In the end the Philippines may find a cheaper option somewhere else.

DSCA simply means there's permission to export all these items, a prerequisite that an US made weapons system can be offered at all. Many of them don't materialize simply because the customer chose some other system in the end.

Any way, scuttlebutt was that Gripen is close to winning in Philippines as Block 70/72 is too expensive. But that may prove to be yet another case of wishful thinking by Saab. I don't think Gripen is a very good match for Philippines.

[Mad Mike]

Le sigh.... Okay,  in some ways this shit would have easier if Uncle Sugar still had Clark and Subic (along w/ ancillary posts including the various radar and commo sites, Crow Valley, etc). Wishful thinking but the aftermath of EDSA was about telling "Yankee go home." And America did... leaving the Philippines in its current... situation I suppose

Ok, rant aside- PhAF already got their nice F-5 replacement. US government's position has often been the case of "Is the PhAF a two fighter air force when at best Manila will only buy less than two to three dozen tac total with at least a 1/4 to 1/3 going under depot type maintenance at any given time?" IOW the US ideally wants to agree to a package of more than 20 plus F-16s that way there's a dozen a/c available at all times; if the US could get access to Clark or Cubi Point that would be bueno too I suppose.

Still as other folks pointed out offer also includes an air to air, LGBs, and other air to ground precision munitions- something Malacanang is gonna have to pony up separately.  In addition, they won't have access to Luke or an USAF schoolhouses for instructor pilot courses and  ground schools for the wrench turners; training costs money, if they can piggy back off a larger organization that has an established training syllabus plus not worry about crucial flight hours canked by bad weather that factor in.

 

Mad Mikec

 

 

[Dawes]

The proposed deal includes (from the document):

"...precision measurement equipment laboratory, calibration, and simulators; spare and repair parts, repair and return services; maps, publications, and technical documentation; studies and surveys; classified / unclassified software and software support; personnel training and training equipment; facilities and facility management, design and/or construction services; U.S. Government and contractor engineering, technical and logistics support services; and other related elements of logistical and program support."

So training is evidently included.

 

[JasonJ]

37 minutes ago, Mad Mike said:

Le sigh.... Okay,  in some ways this shit would have easier if Uncle Sugar still had Clark and Subic (along w/ ancillary posts including the various radar and commo sites, Crow Valley, etc). Wishful thinking but the aftermath of EDSA was about telling "Yankee go home." And America did... leaving the Philippines in its current... situation I suppose

...

I don't think Americans have patience to do the homework in the region so and they don't know that they don't have the patience to do the homework that is existing which comes with the US in a role of top security provider in the region. I say thay because I don't want to rebuttal in a sharp tone and would welcome an America in that role if they did do that homework. In the 1990s, the Soviet Union was gone and PRC GDP was much lower and were hot off the heels of the Tienamein Square massacre. Foreign troops in your land is exactly that, foreign troops in your land. Is it really that hard to imagine a sentiment of unwelcome emerging, particularly with the end of the Cold War? What would be the purpose of the troops remaining. ROK still had the DPRK matter and Okinawa is geograpgically speaking in such a critical strategic spot that troops there held out despite a fairly large raise of anti-base sentiment in the 1990s to around 2012 or so. Anti base sentiment in Okinawa turned around a bit with the obvious rise of China. 

 

So there's that on one side. Then there's also the part in American sentiment that doesn't want to be taken advantage of abroad and doesn't want their troops all over the world. So in yhe 1990s and 2000s, to these Americans, what purpose does having air force assets in yhe Philippines serve, particularly after 9/11? 

 

So yes, if the US still had its assets a Subic and Clark, it would have a more of a use now, but matters are not simple enough for that kind of ranting to be helpful.

[Dawes]

Kadena, Misawa, Yokota, Osan, Kunsan, etc. seem to be adequate these days.

[Nobu]

On 6/29/2021 at 7:05 PM, Mad Mike said:

Le sigh.... Okay,  in some ways this shit would have easier if Uncle Sugar still had Clark and Subic (along w/ ancillary posts including the various radar and commo sites, Crow Valley, etc). Wishful thinking but the aftermath of EDSA was about telling "Yankee go home." And America did... leaving the Philippines in its current... situation I suppose

Ok, rant aside- PhAF already got their nice F-5 replacement. US government's position has often been the case of "Is the PhAF a two fighter air force when at best Manila will only buy less than two to three dozen tac total with at least a 1/4 to 1/3 going under depot type maintenance at any given time?" IOW the US ideally wants to agree to a package of more than 20 plus F-16s that way there's a dozen a/c available at all times; if the US could get access to Clark or Cubi Point that would be bueno too I suppose.

Still as other folks pointed out offer also includes an air to air, LGBs, and other air to ground precision munitions- something Malacanang is gonna have to pony up separately.  In addition, they won't have access to Luke or an USAF schoolhouses for instructor pilot courses and  ground schools for the wrench turners; training costs money, if they can piggy back off a larger organization that has an established training syllabus plus not worry about crucial flight hours canked by bad weather that factor in.

Not nearly enough to make a difference if it hits the fan. The buy is symbolic at best. At worst, the result of a few briefcases full of cash to the right people.

It wouldn't surprise me if Japan lost the Australia sub contract for want of a few briefcases of the same.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Nobu

[CaptLuke]

Ref bases, yes, 20/20 hindsight was we should have kept Clark and Subic, but realistically, just sailing an Aegis destroyer or two in Philippine waters is going to provide more air defense capability than however many F-16 the Philippines can afford to buy and maintain and arm.  

They are probably far better off with some L-159s, FA-50/M-346 at most, with just enough missiles to do airspace protection, and some distributed, mobile air defense assets, and some shore based antiship missiles for the amount of money they have available.  (not a novel idea, it's been pitched in other threads and in depth on one poster's blog, that I can't remember at the moment)

Long story short, the Philippines trying to think about going head to head with China is fools errand.  Think allies and think asymmetric or don't play at all.

[JasonJ]

Under current arrangements, USAF aircraft can come to the Philippines for trainng such as like at the annual Balikatan exercises where F-16s and such, A-10s normally deployed in ROK, and Ospreys have trained in the Philippines in recent years. Last year it didn't happen due to covid and this year was a really small scale. Of course throughout Duterte's term, there has been critical tone raised at the US but it hasn't fully impeded the Balikatan exercises.

The US side though should consider that in the few years before Duterte's presidency, the US did not back the Philippines in 2012 at Scarborough Shoal against PRC blocking out of Filipino vessels. The Philippines initiated a tribunal court case at the UN in 2013. In the years 2014 and 2015, PRC island creation and base construction for all to see started and was carried out a brisk pace. The tribunal finally came to a ruling in July 2016 in generally the Philippines favor but near literally no actual impact against the PRC's base construction in the South China Sea. US pushback came in the form of the FONOPs and -perhaps- the PRC refraining from deploying many military aircraft to those newly created airbases in the Spratly island group. One base, a massive one at Mischief Reef, is literally inside the EEZ of the Philippines even. Obama or not, it's still the US. 

[JasonJ]

BTW, a recent Philippines C-130 crash resulted in over 50 dead, mostly new recruits.

Edited July 6, 2021 by JasonJ

[Corinthian]

The Philippine Air Force has decided to go for Gripen over the newest and greatest F-16 because of cost, both acquisition and operating.

The Gripen C/D is cheaper to buy and operate for the PAF. Although the F-16 is much more capable.

However, this is only CHOICE. Actual purchase is still in limbo because of lack of funds thanks to the government's incompetence resulting to the tanking of the economy during the pandemic. We are, once again, the worst economy in SEAsia. Thanks Duterte and the people who voted for him. The idiots will likely install his daughter as president in 2022.

[Corinthian]

FYI, one of our brand new Super Tucanos was damaged because it is said a PAF general wanted to take it for a spin and didn't nail the landing well, resulting to the aircraft being not airworthy until some very costly repairs are done.

Also, a couple or so Hueys have crashed, as well as a brand new Blackhawk. All pilot-error due to lack of training (because training costs money) but this is not being admitted because "FiLipInO SolDiErS aRe HEroEs anD hOw DaRe yOu bEsMircH tHeIr rEpuTatIoN bY sAyInG itS ThEiR fAuLt fOr alL tHeSE CraShEs...." 

[Corinthian]

O, and Dutertard's decision to abrogate the VFA has been withdrawn after meeting with US SecDEF a few days ago. There may be deals WRT excess defense articles, etc. I still doubt the F-16 will be purchased considering how expensive it is even with USA funding assistance. Instead, we might see some USA GBAD jointly operated by Filipinos and Americans (read: operated by USians only) here.

[Corinthian]

On 7/6/2021 at 12:51 AM, CaptLuke said:

Ref bases, yes, 20/20 hindsight was we should have kept Clark and Subic, but realistically, just sailing an Aegis destroyer or two in Philippine waters is going to provide more air defense capability than however many F-16 the Philippines can afford to buy and maintain and arm.  

 

It would have been too expensive for the USA to keep Clark after Pinatubo eruption. They essentially abandoned it, and cleanup by USA was IIRC mainly for the toxic stuff left in the base. It was the Philippines that rehabilitated Clark and turned it into an operating international airport.

Subic is arguably better off now. USN often visits there especially during Balikatan exercises. The Hanjin shipyard will be operated by a USA company and may be used to service USN ships.

US better off just visiting and sailing around instead of having big bases in the Philippines that are very vulnerable to cruise and ballistic missile strikes by China. Moving targets harder to defeat vs large fixed bases filled with expensive assets.

[Corinthian]

Guys, the reason why the Philippine military is so woefully equipped is because of its reliance on the USA for external defense thanks to Clark and Subic. This gave Marcos the reason to turn the military and police as his stick, focusing on COIN/internal suppression vs opposition. Coupled with the massive corruption endemic in island nation states exacerbated by Marcos' plunder and decades of incompetence by succeeding administrations, the real fault for the Philippines' defense situation lies on the Philippines itself.

It is really best that there be no US or any foreign power's bases in the Philippines, so as to force the government to properly fund the military's modernization program. While the Philippine military has got some new toys, these are too few (FFS, only two ASW helos WTF), with not much money budgeted for maintenance and training.

The truth of the matter is is that while Philippine defense budgets have been bigger than in the past, most of the money goes to personnel and pensions. Not a lot goes to actual acquisition, operation, and maintenance. Because money spent on personnel and generals' pensions = votes and influence for politicians.

[Josh]

Good to see you posting again; thanks for your perspective.