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2 hours ago, DB said:

Sometimes I gain the impression that I'm living in some alternate reality, and that tanknet posts are glitches in my Matrix.

Sometimes I just wonder how many people here manage to put their socks on the right way up.

Gaza is a potential flashpoint between Israel and Iran, and long term regional trends are dangerous to Israeli security.

Edited by glenn239
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23 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

All posts here are entirely logical if your logic includes promoting American non-interventionism by intervening in surefire unwinnable meatgrinders outside the Russian sphere of interest. ūüėĀ¬†

Gaza would no more be an unwinnable meatgrinder than was taking Mosul from ISIS.  

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2 hours ago, DB said:

Sometimes I gain the impression that I'm living in some alternate reality, and that tanknet posts are glitches in my Matrix.

Sometimes I just wonder how many people here manage to put their socks on the right way up.

If you think thats good, search 'Siebel Ferry'.

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Just now, glenn239 said:

Gaza would no more be an unwinnable meatgrinder than was taking Mosul from ISIS.  

And the difference of course being, the Iraqis were doing the fighting, and the Allied Forces were plinking on command from 20000 feet. You arent proposing that. You are proposing the US military does another War on Terror, and the memo going around very clearly indicates they are not very interested, thanks very much.

Why not get Russians to die on Israelis behalf instead? Putin will be thrilled if it increased his global importance index. The Israelis could even get the American diaspora have a whip round to play for all the Wagner Mercenaries. Win win win.

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40 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

And the difference of course being, the Iraqis were doing the fighting, and the Allied Forces were plinking on command from 20000 feet.

You should have had him google, "Swedish Navy" instead.  :^)

The main similarities between Gaza and Mosul is that the operational areas are broadly similar in scale, (ie, cities, not entire countries like Afghanistan) and that the indigenous populations require/required outside intervention to overthrow the terrorists. 

The big differences are that Gaza is a dangerous flashpoint between Iran and Israel, and will remain so well in the future until it is resolved.  That is true no matter how much DB yaps about socks.   Unlike Mosul, Gaza is a situation could  go "Sarajevo" and spill into a big regional war.   Iran took a powder this time, (and on previous occassions) because Iran isn't going to use Gaza as a pretext until it's in a position to win a war against Israel; still quite a number of years in the future.  Anyone that thinks Iran will tolerate another of what the Arab world sees as an IAF murderfest in Gaza after the Iranian military reports that it can defeat Israel is dillusional.

At the operational level, I would hold out a reasonable chance that an occupation of Gaza might not see nearly as heavy fighting as it took to wipe ISIS out.    ISIS had no choice but to fight to the death.  Hamas might have more wiggle room to make a deal.

 

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You aren't proposing that. You are proposing the US military does another War on Terror, and the memo going around very clearly indicates they are not very interested, thanks very much.

The facts are that Israel's security situation is deteriorating steadily as the years pass and that the United States will be drawn into any conflict where the defeat of Israel is in the cards.  So I don't think this is a situation where the US can avoid increasing its commitments in the region.  To put it another way, I don't think Iran gives a flying fuck whether the US does or does not want to fight another war on terror.  They're more than happy to fire rockets at Israel from Gaza again and again.   Then, one day when they're good and ready, Israel will start bombing the shit out of Gaza and in will come Iran and all sorts of other countries against Israel. 

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Why not get Russians to die on Israelis behalf instead? Putin will be thrilled if it increased his global importance index. The Israelis could even get the American diaspora have a whip round to play for all the Wagner Mercenaries. Win win win.

Whoever takes out Hamas has to be acceptable to Israel.  Russia is not.

Edited by glenn239
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1 hour ago, DKTanker said:

Here's a novel thought, petition your government to take on the obligation.

If it did, I'd be concerned they might side with Hamas.  They just accepted into the Liberal caucus a Green Party MP who changed parties because the Green party wouldn't condemn Israel and some people close to the party leader, who is Jewish, were publicly pro-Israel.

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14 hours ago, DB said:

Sometimes I gain the impression that I'm living in some alternate reality, and that tanknet posts are glitches in my Matrix.

Sometimes I just wonder how many people here manage to put their socks on the right way up.

Would it be when Merkel is described as one of several of the WWII allies at a VIP meet and greet?

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12 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

All posts here are entirely logical if your logic includes promoting American non-interventionism by intervening in surefire unwinnable meatgrinders outside the Russian sphere of interest. ūüėĀ¬†

We've had a belly full of interventionism and adventurism. We have a certain level that we can do and then we're done for a time. 

Perhaps Canada can send peace keepers to the region some more? Maybe send a German Division or two?

Edited by rmgill
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4 hours ago, R011 said:

If it did, I'd be concerned they might side with Hamas.  They just accepted into the Liberal caucus a Green Party MP who changed parties because the Green party wouldn't condemn Israel and some people close to the party leader, who is Jewish, were publicly pro-Israel.

Might?¬†ūü§Ē

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1 hour ago, rmgill said:

Would it be when Merkel is described as one of several of the WWII allies at a VIP meet and greet?

You know, it's no fun when people interpret a comment 100% inverted from the intent.

Explaining it is boring, though.

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Or is it because Biden wants to go after Libya again? 

Seriously. We've been over this stuff before. We've got a certain level of adventurism we can do. After Iraq and Afghanistan, we're kind of done with it for a while. 

If you think that there needs to be western intervention in Gaza, feel free to push your own 1st world government to do so. Israel kinda has it sorted out for now. Or you could push your western governments to stop supporting anti-Israeli measures in the UN?

 

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3 hours ago, rmgill said:

Would it be when Merkel is described as one of several of the WWII allies at a VIP meet and greet?

In absolute fairness, without the Germans we couldnt have had WW2, so lets not minimise their vital importance.

6 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Or is it because Biden wants to go after Libya again? 

Seriously. We've been over this stuff before. We've got a certain level of adventurism we can do. After Iraq and Afghanistan, we're kind of done with it for a while. 

If you think that there needs to be western intervention in Gaza, feel free to push your own 1st world government to do so. Israel kinda has it sorted out for now. Or you could push your western governments to stop supporting anti-Israeli measures in the UN?

 

I know, why dont we get a US President to agree to EVERYTHING Israel has ever wanted (sans bombing Iran) and we will get instant peace in the middle east! Its bound to be a sure fire success, right?

I think the middle east is like a dual piano sonata, with the other guy playing half a page behind. We act when its inappropriate. We dont act when its appropriate we do. Only very occasionally do the keys match up. There is no point playing the 'Why dont you do this' or 'why dont you do that instead of us poor over exploited United States', when frankly is not the players that are the problem, its the moves. You could put the PRC in with their endless resources in military hardware and willingness to take casualties, and it would make no further progress because its not military intervention thats the solution.

As for Glenn's plan for Palestine peace, I think he misunderstands the problem. its not whether there is someone able to go in and pacify the place. its whether the Palestinians are remotely interested in peace, and whether Israeli Politicians are interested in granting them peace at a price thats acceptable to the Israeli public without getting murdered in return. History has demonstrated that neither is particularly likely.

14 hours ago, glenn239 said:

You should have had him google, "Swedish Navy" instead.  :^)

Yes, that was yours too wasnt it. Using the Swedish Navy (with Siebel Ferries?) to Invade England. I dont know why you dont go the whole hogg  and freeze the English channel and invade with the Swiss Bicycle corp.

The main similarities between Gaza and Mosul is that the operational areas are broadly similar in scale, (ie, cities, not entire countries like Afghanistan) and that the indigenous populations require/required outside intervention to overthrow the terrorists. 

And Mosul is probably similar to Swindon, yet I would suggest the approaches to policing them are vastly different.

The big differences are that Gaza is a dangerous flashpoint between Iran and Israel, and will remain so well in the future until it is resolved. 

So what? Until Iran can invade Israel with its massive 1970's built tank Army, I dont think israel really gives a damn.

That is true no matter how much DB yaps about socks. 

DB doesnt Yap. He may say a lot of things I wholly disagree with, but he has a brain on him and you should treat him with the proper respect. He and Bojan (whom I also disagree with like most of the time) know more about strategy than you ever will. You have no right to sneer at them.

 Unlike Mosul, Gaza is a situation could  go "Sarajevo" and spill into a big regional war.   Iran took a powder this time, (and on previous occassions) because Iran isn't going to use Gaza as a pretext until it's in a position to win a war against Israel; still quite a number of years in the future.  Anyone that thinks Iran will tolerate another of what the Arab world sees as an IAF murderfest in Gaza after the Iranian military reports that it can defeat Israel is dillusional.

We have been in that position since the start of the Syrian war. Its not happened, and if it hasnt yet, it probably wont.  It cant happen till Iran has the bomb, then it has to figure out a way to deliver it. At the moment neither seems immediately in prospect.

At the operational level, I would hold out a reasonable chance that an occupation of Gaza might not see nearly as heavy fighting as it took to wipe ISIS out.    ISIS had no choice but to fight to the death.  Hamas might have more wiggle room to make a deal.

Here is the problem. Israel wanted to occupy the Golan heights and take Jerusalem to wipe out Syrian sponsored terrorism. How well did that work? Because it wasnt occupation that was the solution, the solution was a political settlement that convinced the Palestinians to stop behaving like complete chebs. 5 decades later and we are still waiting. You could put 10 Chinese Divisions in the Gaza strip and still have a problem, because occupation wasnt the solution then, and it isnt now.

 

The facts are that Israel's security situation is deteriorating steadily as the years pass and that the United States will be drawn into any conflict where the defeat of Israel is in the cards.  So I don't think this is a situation where the US can avoid increasing its commitments in the region.  To put it another way, I don't think Iran gives a flying fuck whether the US does or does not want to fight another war on terror.  They're more than happy to fire rockets at Israel from Gaza again and again.   Then, one day when they're good and ready, Israel will start bombing the shit out of Gaza and in will come Iran and all sorts of other countries against Israel. 

It is and it isnt. Israel is slowly losing touch with the US, that much is clearly true. OTOH the Arab militaries are gravitating towards Israel to protect them from Iran. In that regard, Israelis strategic position is improving, even as its actual military capability is probably going to retract over the next few decades. Im not convinced Iran is going to last that long in any case. I think the revolution is far nearer its end than the beginning.

Whoever takes out Hamas has to be acceptable to Israel.  Russia is not.

Right. You are willing to accept Russia in Syria, in Crimea and Donbass, but not in Gaza or the West Bank. How interesting.

 

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9 hours ago, rmgill said:

Perhaps Canada can send peace keepers to the region some more? Maybe send a German Division or two?

I think Canada would be happy to send a battalion or two to Palestine as part of some American led UN mandated mission that actually is there to fix the bloody problem.

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13 hours ago, R011 said:

If it did, I'd be concerned they might side with Hamas.  They just accepted into the Liberal caucus a Green Party MP who changed parties because the Green party wouldn't condemn Israel and some people close to the party leader, who is Jewish, were publicly pro-Israel.

I saw her on Question Period on Sunday trying to explain herself.  She came across like a pure political opportunist that wanted to switch to the Liberals before the election this summer because that was her big chance to get re-elected, (the Greens have about 99 candidates that lose for every one that gets elected at the federal level).  Frankly, if Trudeau had any spine he would have told her she was not welcome to cross the floor to the Liberals.

Edited by glenn239
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6 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Stuart So what? Until Iran can invade Israel with its massive 1970's built tank Army, I dont think israel really gives a damn.

You think Hamas was firing tank armies at Israel there a few weeks back? 

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DB doesnt Yap. He may say a lot of things I wholly disagree with, but he has a brain on him and you should treat him with the proper respect.

DB’s a great poster.  He also seems to be a big fan of Hamas continuing to exist for some reason.   

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We have been in that position since the start of the Syrian war. Its not happened, and if it hasn’t yet, it probably wont.  It can’t happen till Iran has the bomb, then it has to figure out a way to deliver it. At the moment neither seems immediately in prospect.

Hamas would be quite surprised to discover that Iran needed to have the bomb in order for Iran to send missiles to Gaza to bombard Israel.   

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Right. Israel is willing to accept Russia in Syria, in Crimea and Donbass, but not in Gaza or the West Bank. How interesting.

Fixed it for you.

Quote

Using the Swedish Navy (with Siebel Ferries?) to Invade England. I dont know why you dont go the whole hogg  and freeze the English channel and invade with the Swiss Bicycle corp.

Because compelling Sweden to declare war on Britain in 1940 was theoretically feasible for Germany, whereas freezing the English Channel was not.    

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7 hours ago, rmgill said:

 Seriously. We've been over this stuff before. We've got a certain level of adventurism we can do. After Iraq and Afghanistan, we're kind of done with it for a while. 

Sure, just have Biden go scrape Soleimani off the pavement in Iraq and explain to him that the US is all tucky tucky night night too tired to fight.  Maybe the Revolutionary Guard will stop everything because the USA is tired?   Myself, I kind of suspect that Iran doesn't give a flying double-headed dildo 70's fuck whether the USA is tired or not.    

 

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If you think that there needs to be western intervention in Gaza, feel free to push your own 1st world government to do so. Israel kinda has it sorted out for now. Or you could push your western governments to stop supporting anti-Israeli measures in the UN?

The US can resolve Gaza now or Iran and friends will later.  Take your pick.  

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For the other Americans on this thread, how annoyed are you by Those not of Sam demanding that the US solve a problem of military import unilaterally?

Just raise your hand...

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As far as I can see, there's only one non-Sammite here demanding that. The others think he's at best deluded, and alternatively rather considerate if transparent in that his selective anti-interventionism certainly hasn't the best interests of the US in mind. ūüėČ

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2 hours ago, rmgill said:

For the other Americans on this thread, how annoyed are you by Those not of Sam demanding that the US solve a problem of military import unilaterally?

Just raise your hand...

I never said the Americans had to solve jack shit in Gaza.  I said that if you don't, then Iran will.   You said that the US is tired.  But I didn't catch why Iran or Hamas would care about that.  

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Bansheeone As far as I can see, there's only one non-Sammite here demanding that. The others think he's at best deluded, and alternatively rather considerate if transparent in that his selective anti-interventionism certainly hasn't the best interests of the US in mind.¬†ūüėČ

I think Israel's in a weak position and it's getting weaker by the year.   Biden is going to press ahead with this nuclear deal, and the Saudis will pivot towards Iran even as China and Russia step up their influence in the region.  Occupying Gaza is not a major undertaking as an operation in comparison to something like Iraq in 2003, and it would radically alter what is looking like a bad trajectory for Israel.  So, for the price of less than a Mosul, the West could radically improve Israel's situation.  That's my conclusion, and we'll get to see what happens in the next decade.  Gaza ain't going anywhere and every week the Iranians ship more shit into Syria. 

Edited by glenn239
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1 hour ago, glenn239 said:

I never said the Americans had to solve jack shit in Gaza.  I said that if you don't, then Iran will.   You said that the US is tired.  But I didn't catch why Iran or Hamas would care about that.  

I think Israel's in a weak position and it's getting weaker by the year.   Biden is going to press ahead with this nuclear deal, and the Saudis will pivot towards Iran even as China and Russia step up their influence in the region.  Occupying Gaza is not a major undertaking as an operation in comparison to something like Iraq in 2003, and it would radically alter what is looking like a bad trajectory for Israel.  So, for the price of less than a Mosul, the West could radically improve Israel's situation.  That's my conclusion, and we'll get to see what happens in the next decade.  Gaza ain't going anywhere and every week the Iranians ship more shit into Syria. 

"I never said the Americans had to solve jack shit in Gaza.  I said that if you don't, then Iran will. "

Disagree. The various peoples of the Mid-East have been going at each other since the Old Testament and will continue to do so until the posters on the Grate Site are long gone. No matter which "outside" country decides to involve themselves in the mess, the mess makers will continue to make the mess. This will not be resolved until the second coming of Christ.

Israel will never fall no matter how weak she may appear for she has a friend in a high (very high) place that will not allow this to happen. It's all written down in the world's owner's manual ;)

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I mentioned the glitch in my matrix... it has been better expressed elsewhere as the view from Absurdistan.

One is never quite clear if the poster is contrarian or if indeed he both loves Russia and hates Israel in equal measure, as though he perhaps believes it provides some sort of balanced viewpoint.

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4 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I never said the Americans had to solve jack shit in Gaza.  I said that if you don't, then Iran will.   You said that the US is tired.  But I didn't catch why Iran or Hamas would care about that.  

Who wrote this?

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The question is not whether Hamas should get money from US tax payers to buy Iranian rockets, the question is why the US has tolerated the existence of Hamas in Gaza for almost 15 years now.   If Hamas is habitually firing rockets at the cities of an ally of the United States, then to respond to this affront the USA needs to go in and put Hamas in the history books, and find and destroy everyocket there is in Gaza.

 

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5 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

As far as I can see, there's only one non-Sammite here demanding that. The others think he's at best deluded, and alternatively rather considerate if transparent in that his selective anti-interventionism certainly hasn't the best interests of the US in mind. ūüėČ

Stuart has made it his life's mission to demand the US intervene in every one of his pet issues.

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