Because Biden

[Tim the Tank Nut]

regarding the public's feelings about the economy:

anyone who has to do grocery shopping and shopping for household goods spends all of their time in stores in a state of shock.  Food prices are directly tied to to fuel/fertilizer costs.  Diesel fuel is a more accurate indicator than gasoline and diesel is high, has been high, and is going to stay high.  California's war on big trucks is having an awful toll on the rest of us.  Democrats have to bounce around the issue and use careful wording because it's obvious that it is their fault.  Same/same with insurance costs, you can't let crime run rampant without insurance going up.  Burned buildings aren't going to repair themselves.

When people talk about the booming economy they are often comparing raw dollars and there are a lot more of those floating around.  Your numbers are up? No kidding, when prices double sales numbers do go up til people stop buying.  This is what I do for a living and I know it inside and out.  The economy is shattered for the buying public.  People are living large but that is a much smaller number than it was.  Real output is the bottom line and that means cheap energy that will stay cheap long enough to get people to invest.  Democrats are continuously trying to shut down fossil fuels and that is what keeps the lights on (because they won't allow nuclear, either).

Then some miserable clown always says: "under Biden we're producing more oil".  It's in spite of, not because of...

[Mr King]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Because he was the only one who actively attempted to hide and obstruct the process of recovering the documents.

 

According to who?

[Tim the Tank Nut]

the people that faked the coversheets and moved them around on their own and got caught doing it

[rmgill]

Let's review that statement that Trump was the only one to Obstruct. Hillary's email server, how was that handled? Did she have attorneys review the materials prior to handing over to the FBI? I'm pretty sure that was the case. Why wasn't there a charge set there? Because she was allowed by the FBI to go. 

There's clearly a two tier system at play here. 

Here's a perfect example. 
TWO Trump officials are in prison right now for obstruction of congress. The DOJ filed charges with rapidity. 
Has the DOJ filed charges against their own AG for the exact same thing? No. 


Party A can break a law and is charged. 
Party B can do the exact same thing and is not charnged. 

How is that consistent? 
 

[sunday]

17 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Let's review that statement that Trump was the only one to Obstruct. Hillary's email server, how was that handled? Did she have attorneys review the materials prior to handing over to the FBI? I'm pretty sure that was the case. Why wasn't there a charge set there? Because she was allowed by the FBI to go. 

There's clearly a two tier system at play here. 

Here's a perfect example. 
TWO Trump officials are in prison right now for obstruction of congress. The DOJ filed charges with rapidity. 
Has the DOJ filed charges against their own AG for the exact same thing? No. 


Party A can break a law and is charged. 
Party B can do the exact same thing and is not charnged. 

How is that consistent? 
 

It is very consistent, but it also shows that the saying "A Government of laws, not of men" by John Adams is quite dead.

[Josh]

2 hours ago, Mr King said:

According to who?

I’ve posted the entire year plus timeline in this topic before; do a search for “timeline”. Or don’t; I am not going to correct every alternate fact you’ve be told.

[rmgill]

3 minutes ago, Josh said:

I’ve posted the entire year plus timeline in this topic before; do a search for “timeline”. Or don’t; I am not going to correct every alternate fact you’ve be told.

Does the FBI get to plant evidence? That's a fact that's come out. You can assert alternate facts. But then we can accuse you of asserting alternate facts as well. 

Your inconsistency and false equivalence is telling though. You assert laws then assert lack of knowledge of law. If you don't know then you can't bloody well make clear assertions. You're simply repeating what you've been told to understand without any deeper understanding. 

So, again, I'll ask, Biden had documents over a LONGER time span. Was he forthcoming in ALL document location storage? Why were not charges filed against Biden? Please, cite the reason the DOJ gave. This is all connected. 

 

[Mr King]

1 hour ago, rmgill said:

Let's review that statement that Trump was the only one to Obstruct. Hillary's email server, how was that handled? Did she have attorneys review the materials prior to handing over to the FBI? I'm pretty sure that was the case. Why wasn't there a charge set there? Because she was allowed by the FBI to go. 

 

Her IT guy also went on Reddit and asked how to wipe the server. I saw the post that he later deleted once called out.

Also when Hillary was asked about wiping the server - the video below was her response.

If this prosecution of Trump for these classified documents was an isolated thing, I would inclined to trust the FBI and Justice Department, but its not, and there is a pattern here of malfeasance on the part of both organizations. We live in the world of fabricated Russian piss tape narrative, assassination attempts on a presidential candidate, and not prosecuting a political rival, who controls the Justice Department and FBI, for the same "crime" because that political rival is not in good enough mental health but is somehow in good enough mental health to remain president. 

 

[rmgill]

So, Josh. If someone has material they're not supposed to have, and in the process of such an investigation is ongoing, they take pains to destroy said evidence, and further in that process miss handle it by giving it to people NOT supposed to have it (Hillary's attorneys didn't have classified clearances), is that an example of obstruction? 

Does a secretary of state have the ability to conduct any sort of declassification as an authority of the position? 

[Skywalkre]

8 hours ago, Yama said:

I can well believe that: it's similar what I experience and see here.  Everyday cost of living has skyrocketed since COVID.

However, I doubt it was much different under Trump - or Obama, for that matter. Stories we heard were quite similar then.

Also inflation is not something any administration can do much about: only central banks can, and even their toolbox is very limited.

While everyone's experienced the pains of inflation that inflation has exacerbated long-standing issues here in the US more than in other countries.  One measure of this is income inequality.  Per the folks who try to track this the US is the worst in this rating out of all first world nations and that inequality has been rising for decades (again, this isn't Biden's fault... but he's getting blamed for it being so obvious the last few years).  As Stuart mentioned inflation is a brutal punch in the gut for those barely getting by when near 100% of their income is going to basic necessities.  I've read some articles that we may be experiencing far more inequality than before the Great Depression... but it's impossible to know because there are so many avenues for the top 1% to hide and shelter their wealth compared to back then.

ETA - I read an interesting article a few weeks back where economists were struggling to understand spending habits of folks in the bottom 2/3 of this country.  These folks have been hit hard by inflation, as mentioned, yet they kept spending.  The theory they came to was that previous basic tenets of American society (owning a home, saving for your kids college, etc.) are now so untenable these folks have just given up on ever achieving them and are spending the money that would have gone towards those goals.

Edited July 25 by Skywalkre

[rmgill]

12 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

While everyone's experienced the pains of inflation that inflation has exacerbated long-standing issues here in the US more than in other countries.  One measure of this is income inequality.  Per the folks who try to track this the US is the worst in this rating out of all first world nations and that inequality has been rising for decades (again, this isn't Biden's fault... but he's getting blamed for it being so obvious the last few years).

Perhaps you can explain how the spending in the Inflation Reduction Act reduced inflation by increasing the M1 Money supply? It was a 1.6 Trillion dollar spend. How does that work? 

Perhaps you can explain how the various money tosses by the Biden admin reduced the M1 Money Supply? This includes his Build Back Better 

You're drunk. Drink some more scotch to reduce the drunk. Does that work? Drink some vodka the next morning. Does that help the inebriation? 
 

12 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

As Stuart mentioned inflation is a brutal punch in the gut for those barely getting by when near 100% of their income is going to basic necessities.  I've read some articles that we may be experiencing far more inequality than before the Great Depression... but it's impossible to know because there are so many avenues for the top 1% to hide and shelter their wealth compared to back then.

Yes. No kidding. So are policies that raise fuel and energy costs. But this administration has BEEN BIG on this. From petroleum to mandates for green energy. 

So too are the mandates and requirements for capturing data and reporting on energy expenditure. I'm seeing them in my data center job. If I'm seeing them there then that's added expense on ANY of the transportation and manfacturing sectors. That all raises prices. 

12 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

ETA - I read an interesting article a few weeks back where economists were struggling to understand spending habits of folks in the bottom 2/3 of this country.  These folks have been hit hard by inflation, as mentioned, yet they kept spending.  The theory they came to was that previous basic tenets of American society (owning a home, saving for your kids college, etc.) are now so untenable these folks have just given up on ever achieving them and are spending the money that would have gone towards those goals.

Why do they need to save for college? They can just get a loan and the Democrats will come bail out the student loans.  Think about that. The same goes for people upside down on other loans. They can declare bankruptcy, leave the property and go rent. There's not an expectation of responsibility for one's expenses. Especially Student loans. 



 

[Skywalkre]

19 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Perhaps you can explain how the spending in the Inflation Reduction Act reduced inflation by increasing the M1 Money supply? It was a 1.6 Trillion dollar spend. How does that work? 

Perhaps you can explain how the various money tosses by the Biden admin reduced the M1 Money Supply? This includes his Build Back Better 

You're drunk. Drink some more scotch to reduce the drunk. Does that work? Drink some vodka the next morning. Does that help the inebriation? 
 

Yes. No kidding. So are policies that raise fuel and energy costs. But this administration has BEEN BIG on this. From petroleum to mandates for green energy. 

So too are the mandates and requirements for capturing data and reporting on energy expenditure. I'm seeing them in my data center job. If I'm seeing them there then that's added expense on ANY of the transportation and manfacturing sectors. That all raises prices. 

Why do they need to save for college? They can just get a loan and the Democrats will come bail out the student loans.  Think about that. The same goes for people upside down on other loans. They can declare bankruptcy, leave the property and go rent. There's not an expectation of responsibility for one's expenses. Especially Student loans.

This entire reply just highlights how folks on the far ends of the spectrum, be it Right or Left, will never be able to solve any of the issues we're facing today because they can't look at them outside of the lens of "it's all the <insert opposite end of specturm>'s fault!"  You're responding to a post where I mention income inequality, something that's been rising for decades and all you can talk about are things Biden has done in his Presidency.

This is the same reason even moderates on the Right are concerned about Project 2025.  While some things in it are fine so much of it is just partisan, identity-politics BS, that won't actually solve anything but instead add to issues like the above mentioned income inequality, which both Ds and Rs share the blame for over the decades.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

energy costs are devastating the bottom half of the population.  There's the whole kernel in one sentence.

[rmgill]

35 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

This entire reply just highlights how folks on the far ends of the spectrum, be it Right or Left, will never be able to solve any of the issues we're facing today because they can't look at them outside of the lens of "it's all the <insert opposite end of specturm>'s fault!"  You're responding to a post where I mention income inequality, something that's been rising for decades and all you can talk about are things Biden has done in his Presidency.

Well, this IS in the Biden Thread. Pardon me for making it about Biden specifically. But if you would like me to expand on the general direction of the US government in that time since the New Deal and the expansion of the federal government? I can. Because that all affects that too. And I can VERY much do that. I can also confine it to the past 30 years. Or just the past 2 presidents, it was CERTAINLY more power/authority and costs with Obama. 

Go build something. It will take you months if not YEARS to get permitting depending on how many agencies dip their nose into your business. Get the EPA or Army Corps of Engineers involve and it's going to drive up costs of the final end product, be it energy OR a manufacturing plant of some sort of good. 

But we can't even get you to address M1 Money supply as a key driver of inflation. 

 

35 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

This is the same reason even moderates on the Right are concerned about Project 2025. 

Ok. 

35 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

While some things in it are fine so much of it is just partisan, identity-politics BS, that won't actually solve anything but instead add to issues like the above mentioned income inequality,

Sorry. The Left has been pushing identity politics since Obama and before. The pushback doesn't make it the GOP pushing Identity politics. Don't play that crap game that when we notice it's OUR FAULT for noticing. It's disingenuous and I won't take that sort of gaslighting from you or anyone else. 

The DNC has explicitly made things about race, gender and orientation as a specific objective of discrimination. STOP IT. 

35 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

which both Ds and Rs share the blame for over the decades.

Sorry. The left keeps putting more and more fingers on the scales to make things even and it can't keep up with the pressure so its more fingers on both sides of the scales to make it even and it's nothing of the sort. 

This is why Big Government vs Small Government manifests over and outside of the R vs D points you seem stuck on. 

[Josh]

…

Edited July 26 by Josh

[17thfabn]

7 hours ago, Yama said:

Also inflation is not something any administration can do much about: only central banks can, and even their toolbox is very limited. 

Inflation is one thing the administration can have some impact on.

Trump started to increase spending because of COVID. Biden continued to pour the gas on spending. This helped fuel inflation.

[rmgill]

Wealth transfers to allies in various sectors (Green mainly) and of course buying votes from folks with student debt when those of us who didn't accrue college debt are forced to pay for it. 

[PCallahan]

In my opinion, Americans are down on the economy for a number of reasons, most of which are related to a continued reliance, in the media and governing classes, on traditional measures of it that no longer mean what they used to.

First, regarding GDP, with the US running a pretty consistent $1.6+ trillion annual federal budget deficit, economic growth better damn well follow -- but that isn't traditionally how the US economy has grown.  Essentially, we are borrowing to fund a massive stimulus package every year, but government spending is not done in ways that necessarily generate as much value per dollar as private sector spending.

Second, regarding job creation, according to the Fed's FRED data, there are just under 9 million more Americans in the workforce compared to the pre-pandemic level.  However, about 4 million of that increase is foreign-born workers, meaning that job creation among native born workers has basically been about 1.25 million per year among native-born Americans -- a modest number in a nation of the size of the US.  Please note that there is a solid debate over whether the number of foreign-born workers in the economy as a percentage of the workforce is being properly captured.

Third, regarding the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, that just represents the percentage of the population that is actively seeking work.  While that remains historically low, and draws a great deal of attention, a more meaningful statistic is the Workforce Participation Rate, which sits at 62.5%, down from 63.3% prior to the pandemic.  While that percentage dropped consistently from 2000-2015, it was effectively level from 2015-2020.

Fourth, with regard to inflation, the media and political focus is on the Consumer Price Index, and to a lesser extent, the Producer Price Index (a measure of inflation at the wholesale level).  However, this measures prices, not costs.  While inflation has risen perhaps 19.5% since the surge began in 2021, actually living costs are up by much more, for several reasons.  First, the CPI doesn't take into account the rising cost of interest rates, which impact everything from credit card debt to auto loans to mortgages.  In addition, the CPI has a housing component, based on a combination of rental prices for renters and the imputed rental of homes for homeowners.  While this historically this made sense, as the rents and house prices tended to move in unison, they have diverged sharply in recent years, particularly the last two, meaning the index doesn't capture the full impact of the rise in house prices.  

Finally, and most important, (and this one is not based on data), my feeling is that a number of things that people measure the progress of their lives by have moved farther out of reach in recent years -- paying for a college education, purchasing a car, buying a house.  The cost of doing these things, though a combination of rising interest rates and inflation, has become significantly more challenging.

Please note that I'm not blaming the Biden Administration for all of this; there are many underlying trends.  My point is that the media and politicians focus on these traditional economic reports, but they no longer reflect the feeling on the ground for most Americans.  

[PCallahan]

Oh, and one addendum on job creation.  I have a theory that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is having trouble with its seasonal adjustments to monthly job creation.  For instance, in the latest report (June 2024), BLS's seasonally-adjusted data from June 2023 to June 2024 was a cumulative 1.7 million jobs created, while the non-adjusted data for the same period showed a decline of 350k jobs.  My theory is that BLS is having trouble with the holiday-related adjustments (it is possible that the hire trends that time of year may not be occurring at the same rate as in the past); they will ultimately sort this out, but it will likely take years.  My takeaway, for what it is worth, is that job creation numbers should be taken with a grain of salt; this isn't a political issue but a statistical one.

See page 12 here:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Edited July 26 by PCallahan

[Ssnake]

46 minutes ago, PCallahan said:

In my opinion, Americans are down on the economy for a number of reasons, ...  

Thanks, a refreshingly comprehensive post. It motivated me to search what I wrote here on inflation a while ago, specifically, in 2016:  

On 8/10/2016 at 12:52 PM, Ssnake said:

Regardless whether you're looking at the Democrats or the Republicans, both parties failed to address the concerns of a lower middle class that is descending into poverty despite a 5% unemployment rate while crony capitalism rewards mangers who, in the 1960s, made 20 times the income of the average worker while they are now making 3500 times as much as the average worker whose income, adjusted for inflation, has been effectively stagnant since the 1960s. You have to be absolutely blind to these facts to be surprised by the raise of politicians that try to exploit this untapped resource of voters that have apparently been abandoned by the political establishment.

No matter how Fox or other media reported in the past decade, these fundamental developments would have happened anyway.

 

The split between the rich and the poor in a system of crony capitalism that privatizes profits and socializes losses is becoming a security risk for the US, and with it, for the Western world. Both Democrats and Republicans have let themselves get corrupted by (big) corporate America. If the Koch brothers say that they can imagine donating for Hillary Clinton's campaign you just know where the priorities of the upper class are. Ds and Rs have nobody but to blame themselves.

and then, in 2019:  

On 2/12/2019 at 11:02 AM, Ssnake said:

From my limited understanding, the "Budget Control Act" of 1974 is responsible stating that the budget must rise with the inflation rate, and that entitlements must raise faster. A wonderful example of giving a law a title that's the direct opposite of what the law actually does. If my summary is correct, it appears that it was intentionally long-term dysfunctional.

This ties in nicely with the "Inflation Reduction Act" that was, indeed, another attempt to deceive the public about the nature of that law; I don't believe that the Biden administration was too stupid to realize that dumping a freight train of money on an economy with strong inflationary signs wouldn't further accelerate the problem. They deliberately claimed to douse the fire while pouring gasoline on it with a pressure hose. In itself that's run of the mill monetary supply incompetence the left is notorious for. It was remarkable however that this wasn't ripped to pieces in the public debate. This indicates that too many people expected short-term profits from this and speculated that they would either have to gain politically from a higher inflation, or that the short-term gains outweighed the long-term consequences. I think that Congress has basically lost touch with the public. Congress members make $174,000 a year base pay (and whatever they can make from side hustles, depending on their prominence), and the Government Ethics Reform Act (1989; I don't know whether to love the satirical potential of that title, or to loath the corrupt spirit behind it) makes that inflation-indexed. They just don't have to deal with the consequences, so they just don't care.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

regarding the excellent post by PCallan:

Another thing I have noted is that due to insanely high costs of everything the business beancounters are past cutting costs by eliminating unnecessary functions and are now cutting costs by eliminating core cometencies.  That's why "nothing works" anymore.  From simple customer service transactions to filling out title paperwork at the local DMV nothing goes as it should.  Everyone talks about worker shortages without mentioning that the companies aren't paying the wages it takes to get the workers (because in many cases the company can't).  The workers can't take jobs where the cost of going to work eats up the entire paycheck leaving nothing left so they side hustle to live.  After a bit of that they cut corners to improve the profit and the side hustle dries up.  Rinse and repeat as many times as it takes to generate real trouble.

[rmgill]

8 hours ago, PCallahan said:

In my opinion, Americans are down on the economy for a number of reasons, most of which are related to a continued reliance, in the media and governing classes, on traditional measures of it that no longer mean what they used to.

First, regarding GDP, with the US running a pretty consistent $1.6+ trillion annual federal budget deficit, economic growth better damn well follow -- but that isn't traditionally how the US economy has grown.  Essentially, we are borrowing to fund a massive stimulus package every year, but government spending is not done in ways that necessarily generate as much value per dollar as private sector spending.

Second, regarding job creation, according to the Fed's FRED data, there are just under 9 million more Americans in the workforce compared to the pre-pandemic level.  However, about 4 million of that increase is foreign-born workers, meaning that job creation among native born workers has basically been about 1.25 million per year among native-born Americans -- a modest number in a nation of the size of the US.  Please note that there is a solid debate over whether the number of foreign-born workers in the economy as a percentage of the workforce is being properly captured.

Third, regarding the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate, that just represents the percentage of the population that is actively seeking work.  While that remains historically low, and draws a great deal of attention, a more meaningful statistic is the Workforce Participation Rate, which sits at 62.5%, down from 63.3% prior to the pandemic.  While that percentage dropped consistently from 2000-2015, it was effectively level from 2015-2020.

Fourth, with regard to inflation, the media and political focus is on the Consumer Price Index, and to a lesser extent, the Producer Price Index (a measure of inflation at the wholesale level).  However, this measures prices, not costs.  While inflation has risen perhaps 19.5% since the surge began in 2021, actually living costs are up by much more, for several reasons.  First, the CPI doesn't take into account the rising cost of interest rates, which impact everything from credit card debt to auto loans to mortgages.  In addition, the CPI has a housing component, based on a combination of rental prices for renters and the imputed rental of homes for homeowners.  While this historically this made sense, as the rents and house prices tended to move in unison, they have diverged sharply in recent years, particularly the last two, meaning the index doesn't capture the full impact of the rise in house prices.  

Finally, and most important, (and this one is not based on data), my feeling is that a number of things that people measure the progress of their lives by have moved farther out of reach in recent years -- paying for a college education, purchasing a car, buying a house.  The cost of doing these things, though a combination of rising interest rates and inflation, has become significantly more challenging.

Please note that I'm not blaming the Biden Administration for all of this; there are many underlying trends.  My point is that the media and politicians focus on these traditional economic reports, but they no longer reflect the feeling on the ground for most Americans.  

This excellent post needs the appropriate theme music...
 

 

[rmgill]

1 hour ago, Tim the Tank Nut said:

regarding the excellent post by PCallan:

Another thing I have noted is that due to insanely high costs of everything the business beancounters are past cutting costs by eliminating unnecessary functions and are now cutting costs by eliminating core cometencies.  That's why "nothing works" anymore.  From simple customer service transactions to filling out title paperwork at the local DMV nothing goes as it should.  Everyone talks about worker shortages without mentioning that the companies aren't paying the wages it takes to get the workers (because in many cases the company can't).  The workers can't take jobs where the cost of going to work eats up the entire paycheck leaving nothing left so they side hustle to live.  After a bit of that they cut corners to improve the profit and the side hustle dries up.  Rinse and repeat as many times as it takes to generate real trouble.

Permit offices too. A friend has been trying to build a garage for a year. In my own new job we have some very incompetent staff in some departments. They're apparently there in some sort of sinecure. It's FAR worse in federal agencies like the post office. 

My wife worked at a company in Atlanta called Starbase Atlanta. They sell geek stuff, comics, T-Shirts, swag, and media/toys. Their local post office there in Conyers has ONE good employee. they'd have days where the local post office would just skip them for pickups OR deliveries, apparently they'd skip the entire area. If that fellow was out for the day, Natalie would have to load her car up and go to the post office in two trips to do the day's shipping. For a company doing mail order that's a problem. Then deliveries wouldn't be made either. 

[Tim the Tank Nut]

I see that sort of failure everywhere, in all categories.  I've been around long enough to remember when things worked.  We are ALL pushed to the edge trying to make it happen.  It's more difficult than ever for me to offer deals to customers now when they need the deal the very most.  We can't get deals on the inbound end and therefore the outbound end can only get deals when we eat the cost of that and our expenses are the highest they've ever been.  The cost of the company insurance policy went up by a third.  How does a 35% increase count as low inflation?

We've even stretched the maintenance intervals on the delivery cars and I KNOW that's a terrible idea.  We're eating the seed corn doing stupid stuff like that.

 

[rmgill]

What's driving insurance costs? 

Car/liability is I am sure driven by a number of factors. Inflation for replacement value of cars and costs to repair. Incidents like rioting can't help. Neither can thefts and crime. But the left tells us the Broken Window principle is stimulus. I have had arguments with folks that Insurance pays for it all so damage from riots and looting is no big deal. It's like they don't understand what drives premium costs.