Because Biden

[Josh]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, but would HRC have been any more effective after Roe vs Wade was overturned? Because that is where the US political debate now is.

I think I am on the record in another thread as saying Dobbs was going to cost the GOP ~2% of vote at the national level indefinitely. I suspect if Harris wins that will be one of the deciding issues.

[bfng3569]

16 hours ago, Josh said:

Not from me, certainly. I thought both candidates unqualified and I’m quite certain I posted such. I just would chose Biden as the less narcissistic asshole who pick a better cabinet. I’m grateful he stepped down but still annoyed he ran in the first place; Kamala is basically the second worst candidate the Dems could run. An open primary would have produced better talent.

wasn't singling you out at all, just the general 'push' from the left the last 3 years.  Of course they have also been lying about Joes state of mind and mental health.

i'll take the narcissist over the corruption any day though.

Plus i think if Trump were just a simple narcissist he wouldn't bother running for a second term.  Then all his legal problems would go away, he wouldn't be spending a small fortune in court, he could focus on his business and probably some tv deal (show, series etc what ever) and still keep himself in the limelight.

[bfng3569]

8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Then we agree that he won in 2020, and it was not due to faked votes? Good. Indeed, if he HAD used faked votes, one has to ask why he stood aside this time for Harris, when he could, according to the Trump narrative, cook the books again, and damn the torpedo's. Once again, the narrative is falling apart in front of the reality.

Well, she isnt is she? She was a VP, one that was given very little face time, and very little to do. If you could demonstrate she was instrumental in all the worst Biden decisions, not least Afghanistan, then you would have a good case. For her, its very fortunate that Biden has been such a micromanager, because its not obvious any of his guilt really attaches to her.

The truth is, Harris is a nonentity. It doesnt mean no mud can stick, it does mean you are going to have a hell of a job finding any that will.

 

a tad long, and the title is a bit sensationalist, but an interesting listen.

About 3 minutes in he starts reading the police reports & investigations, with the document's shown as he goes through them.  Limited commentary from there, but again, worth a listen as he reads out loud the police reports and investigators notes.

 

[Josh]

25 minutes ago, bfng3569 said:

wasn't singling you out at all, just the general 'push' from the left the last 3 years.  Of course they have also been lying about Joes state of mind and mental health.

i'll take the narcissist over the corruption any day though.

Plus i think if Trump were just a simple narcissist he wouldn't bother running for a second term.  Then all his legal problems would go away, he wouldn't be spending a small fortune in court, he could focus on his business and probably some tv deal (show, series etc what ever) and still keep himself in the limelight.

I am hardly convinced Trump and his family members are less corrupt; there billions of dollars in deals inked in Turkey, KSA, and PRC during and immediately after his presidency. There’s also all those stolen secret documents, the exact purpose of which is unclear.

Trumps legal troubles only go away if he’s elected. Plus I think he just likes the power, even if he isn’t a fan of the responsibility.

in any case, Harris and Trump it is. I’m desperate to see some recent polling data, though most of the polls are trash. Hoping a quality polling organization does some work in the next couple weeks.

[Skywalkre]

9 hours ago, Yama said:

Is America really doing horribly under Biden? Clearly it seems not, at least from my outsiders perspective.

Biden is suffering from the sad reality of historical American politics - people are struggling financially and punishing him even though he's not responsible.

Without this turning into an essay... there have been concerning economic realities in this country for decades.  The middle class is basically disappearing and it's turning into a country of a minority who are doing fine and a majority who are barely getting by.  Then inflation hit... and just exacerbated all the issues.

Economics is often criticized because it's not a 'hard science' and current US economic news highlights that.  Folks point to the stock market doing great... but the stock market isn't a reflection of the economy as a whole and 90% of stocks in the US are held by just 10% of Americans.  The jobs report that is often cited in the news is a bizarre metric which measures how many people are actively looking for work.  It went up a few months back not because people were being laid off but because some folks who hadn't been looking for work started.  Even then the folks who cover that number in the news never bother to highlight specifics such as how many of those jobs are quality, high paying full time positions compared to how many are part-time with no benefits and garbage pay.  The sad reality for a long time is most of these jobs have been the latter.

[Skywalkre]

9 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

With Clinton, I think she did most of the running for Trump. 

It can't be stated enough how poor of a campaign Hillary ran back in '16.  They literally did no polling in some battleground states up until a week or so before the election because they were so cocky.  This delusion led them to spending ad money in states they had no chance of winning because they thought they could pull off another '84 Reagan.  They relied too heavily on tech at the expense of traditional, tried-and-true methods.  The list goes on and on... and they still almost won.

[Skywalkre]

7 hours ago, Rick said:

2. The further decline of Christian morality and civility.

As clearly shown by so many Christians lining up behind and giving unwavering support to Trump...

[Skywalkre]

2 hours ago, bfng3569 said:

a tad long, and the title is a bit sensationalist, but an interesting listen.

About 3 minutes in he starts reading the police reports & investigations, with the document's shown as he goes through them.  Limited commentary from there, but again, worth a listen as he reads out loud the police reports and investigators notes.

This has been covered in the election fraud thread we have and turned out to be nothing.  Most of the 'evidence' was nothing more than normal gear/procedure for a business.  The weapons were legal and privately owned.  The bad forms that were submitted were caught and had no impact on the election (and not proof of fraud but more likely an employee being loose with the rules to meet some quote or qualify for a bonus).

Once again, there is still no evidence of systemic voter fraud that resulted in Biden winning.  There was the typical, low volume level of fraud that exists with every election (and has always existed) as well as the efforts by Trump and his people that have actually resulted in charges filed in DC and several states.

Edited July 24, 2024 by Skywalkre

[rmgill]

3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Biden is suffering from the sad reality of historical American politics - people are struggling financially and punishing him even though he's not responsible.

His policies are a direct cause. Curtailment of oil production, inflation due to monetary policy, and driving up energy costs with his energy policy. Also encroachment of the regulatory state, policies written from the Oval Office and not legislated and then the general issue with immigration adding additional load the country And added competition in parts of the labor market. Illegal and legal immigration also drive down wages. So that's not ideal for the native workforce either. 

 

3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Without this turning into an essay... there have been concerning economic realities in this country for decades.  The middle class is basically disappearing and it's turning into a country of a minority who are doing fine and a majority who are barely getting by.  Then inflation hit... and just exacerbated all the issues.

Yes. And what drives inflation? Monetary policy. M1. 

Build back better. We've had 3 years of that. 

https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/full-analysis-of-bidens-build-back-better-13-spending-agenda

 

3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Economics is often criticized because it's not a 'hard science' and current US economic news highlights that.  Folks point to the stock market doing great...

Inflation will make it seem so. That's an artifact of inflation right there. It's a great wealth transfer. 

But ideas to tax unrealized gain in the market. That's silly. But that's Biden and Harris for you. If they can tax unrealized gain, can I get a tax credit on unrealized loss? 

3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

The jobs report that is often cited in the news is a bizarre metric which measures how many people are actively looking for work.  It went up a few months back not because people were being laid off but because some folks who hadn't been looking for work started.  Even then the folks who cover that number in the news never bother to highlight specifics such as how many of those jobs are quality, high paying full time positions compared to how many are part-time with no benefits and garbage pay.  The sad reality for a long time is most of these jobs have been the latter.

And since the Obama era, the jobs report was bumf, because the Department of Labor would fudge the numbers. Better indicators are in aggregate, GDP, Jobs, Industrial Output, Consumer Spending, Consumer Price Index, Inflation, Home Sales, Home building, Home Construction costs, Manufacturing Demand and Retail sales. 


 

Edited July 24, 2024 by rmgill

[Skywalkre]

11 minutes ago, rmgill said:

His policies are a direct cause. Curtailment of oil production, inflation due to monetary policy, and driving up energy costs with his energy policy. Also encroachment of the regulatory state, policies written from the Oval Office and not legislated and then the general issue with immigration adding additional load the country And added competition in parts of the labor market. Illegal and legal immigration also drive down wages. So that's not ideal for the native workforce either.

He bears some responsibility, but not all of it.  Your graph from several pages back actually showed the big jump in M1 happened under Trump, not Biden.  That other poster's blog he was highlighting also didn't show what he was hoping it would, laying some of the blame on Trump as well.  The reality is there are a lot of factors at play here.  Biden, Trump, US economic policy for years, the list goes on... all bear responsibility for where we're at.  Biden is suffering because the bad effects are coming due on his watch.

[Murph]

Well he is alive (I guess you can call it alive).  I don't wish Alzheimers on my worst enemy.  

[rmgill]

10 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

He bears some responsibility, but not all of it.  Your graph from several pages back actually showed the big jump in M1 happened under Trump, not Biden. 

Incorrect. I'm looking at it right now. It starts the turnup in 2020 and has more surging upwards through may of 2022. Was that also Trump? Was he signing spending bills in 2022?  

10 minutes ago, Skywalkre said:

The reality is there are a lot of factors at play here.  Biden, Trump, US economic policy for years, the list goes on... all bear responsibility for where we're at.  Biden is suffering because the bad effects are coming due on his watch.

Which he brought on. A lot of consumer and business confidence can revolve around intentions by the policy makers in the Oval Office/Whitehouse. Biden's energy policy is a direct driver of that. So is the oil/gas exploration policy. That has longer term effects but those effects can start as SOON as folks realize who's going to be guiding things. I bet you can find economic indicators that turned around with Biden getting the win in November of 2020. 

[DKTanker]

8 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes, but would HRC have been any more effective after Roe vs Wade was overturned? Because that is where the US political debate now is.

No it isn't.  The left would like to run on that again and they can, at the state level.  But for national level politics, Trump and the GOP have refused to engage, simply stating what SCOTUS has said, it's a state issue.

Currently US political debate is important to voters in this order:

1. Inflation 
2. Healthcare 
3. Immigration
4. Jobs / Economy
5. Climate
6. National Security
7. Taxes and government spending
8. Abortion

and so on

 

 

 

[bfng3569]

7 hours ago, Josh said:

I am hardly convinced Trump and his family members are less corrupt; there billions of dollars in deals inked in Turkey, KSA, and PRC during and immediately after his presidency. There’s also all those stolen secret documents, the exact purpose of which is unclear.

Trumps legal troubles only go away if he’s elected. Plus I think he just likes the power, even if he isn’t a fan of the responsibility.

in any case, Harris and Trump it is. I’m desperate to see some recent polling data, though most of the polls are trash. Hoping a quality polling organization does some work in the next couple weeks.

what stolen secret documents are you talking about???

And trumps legal troubles never materialize if he didn't run for a second term.

And honestly, ask your self, Trump had over sea's business dealings long before he ran the first time. 

What over sea's business did the Bidens have?

[Josh]

1 minute ago, bfng3569 said:

what stolen secret documents are you talking about???

And trumps legal troubles never materialize if he didn't run for a second term.

And honestly, ask your self, Trump had over sea's business dealings long before he ran the first time. 

What over sea's business did the Bidens have?

The pile of classified documents.

we’ll agree to disagree.

ideally a sitting president or his family cabinet does not engage in foreign business, I believe there is a clause concerning that

I have no idea, but only Biden himself was part of the government.

[Mr King]

20 minutes ago, Josh said:

The pile of classified documents.

 

Like these?

 

[rmgill]

46 minutes ago, Josh said:

The pile of classified documents.

The evidence of that was found with what search and what investigation? 

46 minutes ago, Josh said:

ideally a sitting president or his family cabinet does not engage in foreign business, I believe there is a clause concerning that

Cite the clause pleaase. 

46 minutes ago, Josh said:

I have no idea, but only Biden himself was part of the government.

Biden was VP. He didn't have declassification ability. 

[bfng3569]

41 minutes ago, Josh said:

The pile of classified documents.

we’ll agree to disagree.

ideally a sitting president or his family cabinet does not engage in foreign business, I believe there is a clause concerning that

I have no idea, but only Biden himself was part of the government.

You say stolen, are you saying Biden stole his too?  (and Clinton, and everyone else...?)  Why was Trump the only one prosecuted?

If he wasn't going to run, the left would have forgotten about him.  but since he is, all of a sudden... court cases.

your dodging.  are you seriously trying to say the Hunters over seas business dealing were legit and had nothing to do with his father?  are you seriously trying to legitimize Hunters foreign business dealings because he was never part of the government and disassociate it all from Joe?

dude, seriously?

[Stuart Galbraith]

The problem was NOT a few loose documents at the back of the drawer that were unaccounted for. The problem was BOXES of document that were not handed in at the end of the administration, and which Trump, unaccountably, believed belonged to him. So they asked for them back. And they asked for them back. And they asked for them back. And they asked for them back. And it was only after some 2 and a half years of being given the finger that hey sent the FBI to go and get them, and found them stacked in spare rooms, on a stage, and even in the frigging bathroom. yes, this is your nations history, stacked in the fucking bathroom. One wonders what the outrage would be like if Obama had done this.

Here is the problem with the narrative he has immunity. He probably has immunity for taking the documents. He was President, and Presidents now seem to be able to do anything, so fair enough. The problem is he still broke the law holding onto them after being told to give them back WHEN HE WAS A PRIVATE CITIZEN. Magically he seems to have acquired immunity for this too, because the judge seems to deliberately misunderstand the nature of the offence. But he has no protection as a private citizen, even if you accept the narrative that he does as a President.

As for the others, it will be remembered they volunteered documents after finding them themselves. One can argue whether they should have took them, although as the supreme court seems to imply they can do anything they like, that seems a dubious argument post Trump, and it works retroactively. if they had been asked to return specific documents, as Trump was asked, similarly they would be guilty of a criminal offence. But as these were fragments of their documents intake that were misplaced, and not a wholesale attempt to make documents an economic nest egg, as Trump seeming was doing, the nature of the offence is different.

In the Uk, its perfectly true we have prime ministers hold onto documents. But they are generally of a personal nature. I know the Churchill family apparently sold a lot of documents that Churchill retained that were of a personal nature, which caused some irritation because it was believed they should have been retained for the nation. But the fact remains, there is a world of difference between an official document that has a Presidential or Prime ministers signature on it, and a personal document either from or to another individual about private affairs. None of those documents Trump held onto could be classed as that.

 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

6 hours ago, Mr King said:

Like these?

 

3 Boxes. Which is reprehensible I quite agree.

 

Now how many did they find in Trumps bathroom? I make that 30 boxes, assuming there isnt any behind the cameraman.

 

Or the 72 plus boxes found on the stage (I think its more like 80, but I wont argue the point).

 

Or the storage room full of 80 boxes of documents.

 

 

 

Not all of these are sensitive documents of course. But the problem is, how do you quantify how many of them are, when he has so goddamn many of them? Even Aldrich Aimes didnt handle this much material.

 

These are not comparable incidents. If people opened Biden's garages and found its stocked full of documents from when he was VP, they would be getting close to it. But its not even close.

[Yama]

On 7/24/2024 at 12:50 PM, Stuart Galbraith said:

It depends on the individual. Im hearing on twitter some people are suffering horribly. I dont remotely disbelieve it. The inflation crisis hit our poorer demographics here also. Biden has clearly failed to spread the economic good around, as he clearly promised to do. Harris of she gets the ticket is going to have her work cut out to deliver on it.

Thing is, were things 'good' under Trump?

I can well believe that: it's similar what I experience and see here.  Everyday cost of living has skyrocketed since COVID.

However, I doubt it was much different under Trump - or Obama, for that matter. Stories we heard were quite similar then.

Also inflation is not something any administration can do much about: only central banks can, and even their toolbox is very limited. 

Funny thing is how enamoured our local pundits are about US economical performance: "Look at those growth numbers! We should do like they do!"

[Stuart Galbraith]

We had a REALLY bad case of inflation in the 1980's, and the only prescribed medicine that seemed to work was to allow unemployment to go up, till the market fixed itself and inflation went down. And it did work, although in that case I think the cure was probably worse than the disease. It was only have gallons of offshore oil that allowed a low tax regime, that stopped a national revolt.

So, Biden perhaps could do things to drive up unemployment. That would fix inflation nearly overnight. But somehow I dont think the American people would thank him for it.

Perhaps Trump is far gutsier and will go for it?

[Josh]

11 hours ago, Mr King said:

Like these?

 

10 hours ago, bfng3569 said:

You say stolen, are you saying Biden stole his too?  (and Clinton, and everyone else...?)  Why was Trump the only one prosecuted?

Because he was the only one who actively attempted to hide and obstruct the process of recovering the documents. You will notice that Pence was not charged either, despite also having documents.

 

11 hours ago, Mr King said:

10 hours ago, bfng3569 said:

If he wasn't going to run, the left would have forgotten about him.  but since he is, all of a sudden... court cases.

your dodging.  are you seriously trying to say the Hunters over seas business dealing were legit and had nothing to do with his father?  are you seriously trying to legitimize Hunters foreign business dealings because he was never part of the government and disassociate it all from Joe?

dude, seriously?

 

Hunter is definitely a corrupt piece of shit. He also never served in government in any capacity. In any case at no time did I state that the Biden family was innocent of corruption ; I merely challenged bfng3569’s contention that the Trump family some how was not corrupt. There is every indication Donald, Jared, and Ivanka used their positions for financial gain, even if like Hunter there is not sufficient evidence to prove criminality in a court of law.

 

Edited July 25, 2024 by Josh

[Josh]

14 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

We had a REALLY bad case of inflation in the 1980's, and the only prescribed medicine that seemed to work was to allow unemployment to go up, till the market fixed itself and inflation went down. And it did work, although in that case I think the cure was probably worse than the disease. It was only have gallons of offshore oil that allowed a low tax regime, that stopped a national revolt.

So, Biden perhaps could do things to drive up unemployment. That would fix inflation nearly overnight. But somehow I dont think the American people would thank him for it.

Perhaps Trump is far gutsier and will go for it?

US inflation is largely under control now, but costs have risen enough that it would probably take deflation to make purchases more affordable. The biggest problems are likely the outsized costs of housing and healthcare. If those could be reduced, there’s more money for other purchases. But neither party has any plan to address those issues.

[Ivanhoe]

Inflation is only under control if you believe BLS.

Only a fool would believe BLS numbers after their continual corrections of employment data and tweaking of the "market basket."