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US and Western Defense Policy in the Next Four Years


BansheeOne

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It's already bad enough that certain military suppliers are replacing German parts with non-German parts, from transistors up all the way to rocket motors and warheads.

Largely triggered by German unhappiness with Saudi Arabia's Yemen adventures.

Still, didn't stop them sending a football team to Qatar, so there is that.

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On 1/7/2023 at 12:13 AM, Ssnake said:

And they folded like wet cardboard, what more do you want?

😜

What I wanted was nobody to go. A bit idealistic, perhaps. As I've said many times before, the sooner we get rid of the dependency on crushed dinosaur juice, the better.

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On 7/11/2023 at 6:16 PM, JWB said:

Note that includes reopening a 30mm production line. I'm assuming that Rarden, which is on its last legs in UK service, so I'm assuming that's pretty much for all the CVRT exports to Ukraine. I also imagine all those private sales had a visit to wherever the Rardens removed from Warrior went before they privately left the country, entirely privately.

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This is really just a mix of stating the obvious and various nice buzzwords. Domestically, there is already criticism that the government is still not taking the shift serious enough with action to match.

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Germany to make military 'the backbone' of Europe's defense

13 hours ago

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it was time for Germany to be "a grown up country" in terms of security policy. Pistorius said Russia's war against Ukraine had altered the role of Germany and the Bundeswehr.

Germany plans to accelerate reforms of its military bureaucracy as part of an ongoing overhaul of the country's military, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius outlined in a document presented on Thursday in Berlin.

The revamp of the military seeks to make the force more capable of defending Germany and its allies.

"We must be the backbone of deterrence and collective defense in Europe. Our own population, as well as our partners in Europe, North America and the world, expect us to face up to this responsibility," the new defense guidelines said.

The Bundeswehr, as Germany's army is known, "must be ready for war in all areas. This means that its personnel and equipment must be geared towards fulfilling its demanding missions," the document added. 

It went on to say that a well-equipped military capable of victory in high-intensity combat at any time "is the only way to ensure credible deterrence and peace." 

The last time the German government presented a similar set of defense policy guidelines was in 2011.

Russia as a major threat

The 19-page document reflects the major defense policy shift, known as "Zeitenwende," announced by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

"With the Zeitenwende, Germany becomes a grown up country in terms of security policy," Pistorius said.

In an editorial for the Tagesspiegel newspaper ahead of the guidelines' release, Pistorius said Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine meant the continent faced a renewed military threat, which fundamentally altered the role of Germany and the Bundeswehr.

As such, the document officially highlighted Russia as the main long-term threat to peace and security facing Germany and its European allies.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-vows-to-make-military-the-backbone-of-europes-defense/a-67361593

Original German document:

https://augengeradeaus.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Verteidigungspolitische_Richtlinien_2023.pdf

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Germany Braces for Decades of Confrontation With Russia

Leaders are sounding alarms about growing threats, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz is wary of pushing the Kremlin, and his own ambivalent public, too far.

By Steven Erlanger and David E. Sanger

Steven Erlanger and David Sanger, who have covered the Atlantic alliance for decades, interviewed German and American officials in Berlin and Washington for this article.

Feb. 3, 2024

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans that they should prepare for decades of confrontation with Russia -- and that they must speedily rebuild the country's military in case Russian Vladimir Putin does not plan to stop at the border with Ukraine.

Russia's military, he has said in a series of recent interviews with German news media, is fully occupied with Ukraine. But if there is a truce, and Putin has a few years to reset, he thinks the Russian leader will consider testing NATO's unity."

"Nobody knows how or whether this will last," Pistorius said of the current war, arguing for a rapid buildup in the size of the German military and a restocking of its arsenal.

Pistorius' public warnings reflect a significant shift at the top levels of leadership in a country that has shunned a strong military since the end of the Cold War. The alarm is growing louder, but the German public remains unconvinced that the security of Germany and Europe has been fundamentally threatened by a newly aggressive Russia.

The defense minister's post in Germany is often a political dead end. But Pistorius' status as one of the country's most popular politicians has given him a freedom to speak that others -- including his boss, Chancellor Olaf Scholz -- do not enjoy.

As Scholz prepares to meet President Joe Biden at the White House on Friday, many in the German government say that there is no going back to business as usual with Putin's Russia, that they anticipate little progress this year in Ukraine and that they fear the consequences should Putin prevail there.

Those fears have now mixed with discussions about what will happen to NATO if former President Donald Trump is elected and has a second chance to act on his instinct to pull the United States out of the alliance.

The prospect of a reelected Trump has German officials and many of their fellow NATO counterparts informally discussing whether the nearly 75-year-old alliance structure they are planning to celebrate in Washington this year can survive without the United States at its center. Many German officials say Putin's best strategic hope is NATO's fracture.

For the Germans, it is an astounding reversal of thinking. Only a year ago, NATO was celebrating a new sense of purpose and a new unity, and many were confidently predicting Putin was on the run.

But now, with an undependable America, an aggressive Russia and a striving China, as well as a seemingly stalemated war in Ukraine and a deeply unpopular conflict in Gaza, German officials are beginning to talk about the emergence of a new, complicated and troubling world, with severe consequences for European and trans-Atlantic security.

Their immediate concern is growing pessimism that the United States will continue to fund Ukraine’s struggle, just as Germany, the second-largest contributor, has agreed to double its contribution this year, to about $8.5 billion.

Now, some of Mr. Pistorius’s colleagues are warning that if American funding dries up and Russia prevails, its next target will be closer to Berlin.

[...]

This year, for the first time, Germany will spend 2 percent of its gross domestic product on the military, reaching the goal that all NATO countries agreed to in 2014, after the Russian annexation of Crimea, but that most experts warn is now too low. And Germany has committed to beefing up NATO’s eastern flank against Russia by promising to permanently station a brigade in Lithuania by 2027.

Yet in other ways, Mr. Scholz has moved with great caution. He has opposed — along with Mr. Biden — setting a timetable for Ukraine’s eventual entry into the alliance.

The most vivid example of his caution is his continued refusal to provide Ukraine a long-range, air-launched cruise missile called the Taurus.

Last year, Britain and France gave Ukraine their closest equivalent, the Storm Shadow/SCALP, and it has been used to devastate Russian ships in Crimean ports — and to force Russia to pull back its fleet. Mr. Biden reluctantly agreed to provide ATACMS, a similar missile though with a range limited to about 100 miles, to Ukraine in the fall.

The Taurus has a range of more than 300 miles, meaning Ukraine could use it to strike deep into Russia. And Mr. Scholz is not willing to take that chance — nor is the country’s Bundestag, which voted against a resolution calling for the transfer. While the decision seems to fit German opinion, Mr. Scholz wants to avoid the subject.

But if he remains reluctant to push Mr. Putin too hard, it is a caution Germans share.

Polls show that Germans want to see a more capable German military. But only 38 percent of those surveyed said they wanted their country to be more involved in international crises, the lowest figure since that question began to be asked in 2017, according to the Körber Foundation, which conducted the survey. Of that group, 76 percent said the engagement should be primarily diplomatic, and 71 percent were against a military leadership role for Germany in Europe.

[...]

While Mr. Scholz acknowledges that the world has changed, “he is not saying that we must change with it,” said Ulrich Speck, a German analyst.

“He is saying that the world has changed and that we will protect you,” Mr. Speck said.

But doing so may well require far more military spending — upward of 3 percent of Germany’s gross domestic product. For now, few in Mr. Scholz’s party dare suggest going that far.

Germans, and even the Social Democrats, “have come to the realization that Germany lives in the real world and that hard power matters,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a Europe expert at Georgetown University.

“At the same time,” he said, “there’s still this hope that this is all just a bad dream, and Germans will wake up and be back in the old world.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/03/world/europe/germany-russia.html

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Obviously the population is ambivalent, when the government does not seem to be committed to the idea and obviously would prefer to not go down that route. As long as even our chancellor believes that the Ukraine can win by a few SAMs, some old tanks and tons of old helmets and tents, how should the population believe that the country is facing a real threat?

The Taurus disaster is bad enough.

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Reportedly Scholz blocked von der Leyen from having a shot at the seat of NATO General Secretary, too anti-Russian or something.

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According to information from WELT AM SONNTAG, the Chancellor has prevented Ursula von der Leyen from becoming the future NATO Secretary General. Apparently the Social Democrats didn't like their course on Russia. Now the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte has a good chance.

The rest is behind paywall.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus250139008/Nato-Scholz-verhinderte-von-der-Leyen-nun-ist-Rutte-der-Favorit-als-neuer-Generalsekretaer.html

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Oh, a European military without recruitment problems, unfortunately...

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Italy's Army is overrun with people, who wish to serve... but Italy isn't allowed to grow its army due to the Eurozone's 3% rule. In short: in 2023 a total of 68,766 people applied for 9,805 positions in the army.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1759223440521728191

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Not wishing to start a new thread, here we have "a photo is worth a thousand words"

https://news.usni.org/2022/08/31/navy-names-submarine-forces-first-female-chief-of-the-boat#:~:text=Submarines have been one of,38%2C according to the release.

Yes, I know, a little late time wise on this, but just one among the obvious reasons the U.S.N. is going to whale dung, camouflage uniforms for a submarine crew!

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2 minutes ago, Rick said:

Not wishing to start a new thread, here we have "a photo is worth a thousand words"

https://news.usni.org/2022/08/31/navy-names-submarine-forces-first-female-chief-of-the-boat#:~:text=Submarines have been one of,38%2C according to the release.

Yes, I know, a little late time wise on this, but just one among the obvious reasons the U.S.N. is going to whale dung, camouflage uniforms for a submarine crew!

It makes sense, after the SSBN/SSGN launches all of its missiles and torpedoes the crew can land on enemy shore and continue fighting as special forces. 

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Was stationed at the medical clinic at the U.S. sub base in Groton, Ct. in the early 1980's. They had two interesting T-shirts; one said "16 empty missile tubes, a mushroom cloud, now it's Miller(beer) time."

The other one said "There are two types of ships, submarines and targets.'

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8 hours ago, Rick said:

Was stationed at the medical clinic at the U.S. sub base in Groton, Ct. in the early 1980's. They had two interesting T-shirts; one said "16 empty missile tubes, a mushroom cloud, now it's Miller(beer) time."

The other one said "There are two types of ships, submarines and targets.'

I got one of those shirts at a Salvation Army, though it must have been a newer version since it used the number 24 and depicted an Ohio class. Sadly the shirt was lost in a late night mass hotel pool break at a music festival in North Carolina.

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Germany: Mounting concern over Ukraine and Gaza

Sabine Kinkartz

19 hours ago

To what extent is Germany becoming a target for Russia? What will happen in the Middle East? A monthly survey shows: Voters are increasingly worried.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is standing firm: He continues to reject the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. "I am the Chancellor and that's why my word counts," he said at a town hall meeting with students in response to a question on the matter. Scholz fears that the missiles could be fired at targets inside Russia and that Germany could be drawn into the war. After all, the Taurus has a range of 500 kilometers (310 miles).

The chancellor's stance is being met with criticism from the opposition center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and also from his own coalition partners, the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). FDP lawmakers have threatened to vote with the opposition CDU/CSU if the issue of Taurus deliveries is again on the agenda in the federal parliament, the Bundestag, next week.

But what do German voters actually think about this? The pollster infratest-dimap surveyed 1288 eligible voters on the matter from March 4 to 6.

The majority of supporters of the CDU/CSU but also of Chancellor Scholz's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) said they support the chancellor's position. Among Green Party and FDP supporters there is a narrow majority in favor of Taurus deliveries. Supporters of the far-right populist Alternative for Germany party (AfD) and the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are strictly opposed to weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

More money for the Bundeswehr

The survey was conducted after Russian President Vladimir Putin once again threatened the West in his State of the Nation address. Six out of 10 voters polled said they fear that Germany could be drawn directly into the war and also that the threat of Russian attacks on other European countries has not been averted.

Three out of four respondents approve of the German government's decision to permanently spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, which is significantly more than before Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. 

Last weekend, Russia leaked a wiretapped conversation between high-ranking Bundeswehr officers. A majority of voters polled now fear that Germany is increasingly becoming the target of Russian espionage, and is not adequately prepared to avert this. 85% feel that Russia is not a country that should be trusted. 

Infratest-dimap regularly poses the question which countries are seen as good partners for Germany. The latest poll shows that trust in Germany's traditional partners France and the United States has fallen.

Criticism of Israel is mounting

Since last October's terrorist attack by Hamas, German voters have expressed concern over developments in the Middle East. Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, the EU, Israel and other states. In view of the dramatically escalating humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, criticism of Israel is mounting in Germany.

When asked whether Israel's military response was appropriate, 50% of the eligible voters surveyed by infratest-dimap said "no." That is 9% more than in November 2023. 

Six out of 10 respondents questioned whether military action against Hamas is justified even if the Palestinian civilian population in the Gaza Strip is also affected.

Almost three-quarters of respondents still see Hamas as responsible for the situation on the ground. However, a growing number (62%) also assign responsibility to Israel.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-mounting-concern-over-ukraine-and-gaza/a-68472524

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