Belarus

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/belarus-leader-change-constitution-to-prevent-opposition-from-taking-power/ar-AAOUoa7?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

MINSK (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called on Tuesday for changes to the constitution that would prevent an opposition movement that rose up against him in mass street protests last year from taking power, the state news agency Belta reported.

President since 1994, Lukashenko has touted constitutional reform as a way out of the political crisis following a disputed election in August 2020. But his opponents have denounced such change as a sham exercise to keep the veteran leader in office.

Backed by Russia, Lukashenko unleashed a violent crackdown to disperse the protests, in which tens of thousands of people were detained. His government portrayed the demonstrators as foreign-backed criminals bent on a violent uprising.

"After last year, we understand that they cannot be allowed to power. Because it is not only we who will be liquidated," Lukashenko was quoted by Belta as saying.

"Therefore, the new constitution should take into account these nuances," he said at a meeting with officials.

He did not specify what specific changes were planned to the constitution, but repeated that a referendum on them should take place no later than February.

After the meeting, the head of the constitutional court, Petr Miklashevich, said the new constitution proposed redistributing powers between the president, government and parliament.

He said the new constitution was also meant to give legal status to a "People's Assembly" that Lukashenko launched this year amid criticism from the opposition.

Russia, which helped Lukashenko weather the protests and Western sanctions, has also pushed for constitutional reform in Belarus.

Lukashenko has previously suggested he would step down once a new constitution is adopted.

Last Friday the United Nations human rights chief Michelle Bachelet said more than 650 people were believed to be imprisoned in Belarus for their beliefs and that there had been no genuine investigations of police brutality and mistreatment.

Belarus rejected her report as being full of "unfounded statements and false accusations".

 

So it sounds less like Anschlus than president for life. Although if you are the FSB that needed be so long....

 

[JasonJ]

24 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Dont. Dont even take my word for it, though unlike others here, Ive put the time in to read up on it.

Here is a few books I recommend.

Black Wind, White snow by Charles Clover. How the Russian Far Right infiltrated Russian politics. Or looked at another way, how the KGB infiltrated far right politics, became infatuated with it, and used it as a backstop to Putins rule.  The similarity to the things Russia is doing on the world stage to ideas Dugin comes up with is fairly disconcerting.

It draws inspiration from a man called Alexander Dugin who wrote a book called 'The Foundation of Geopolitics'.  I cant source an English copy, but the Wiki summation is terrifying enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Mafia State by Alexander Livinenko. The one who died from Polonium tea, which strongly indicates he was probably onto something. Litvinenko delineates how the Russian mafia and the security service effectively merged, not unlike what the CIA was doing in the 1960's. He describes how the Russian security service used its position to enhance organized crime, to the point where it was not clear what was national security and mob related violence. The ambush on Hermitage owned by Bill Browder is a case in point. He also goes into some detail about the Moscow Apparetment bombings, and makes a convincing case that it was in fact true.

Nothing is true and everything is possible, by Peter Pomorantsev. I think this was the one (Ive read so much on the subject the seem to overlap now) where he was discussing how the Kremlin took on the Oligarchs to gain control of the media, and then used the media to remain in power.

 

If anyone is interested in a list on books ive read on recent Russian history and politics, I can put a full thread up. Might take me a while to get some of it out of storage though. Ive got so man damn books on various subjects they are kinda overlowing in two garden sheds at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone has limits. I have limits. Limits in time. I simply do not have the time to read all that stuff on top of what I'm currently going through. So I make do with what I can. Relying on web stuff obviously comes with its bottle of salt. There is one benefit to forums that books don't have, which is being able to read the buttheading of contrasting ideas. Books can be selective in what they decide to write and in what form and can also be tied to publisher desires. Even if a given book does not have such selective form or publisher pleasing bias, I can't know for sure unless I become so informed on a given matter to be able to judge the contents of a whole book myself. On Russia.. its not going to happen. So I can't go as far as that "don't". しょうがない。Hopefully others can pick up on those books.

[Stuart Galbraith]

If books are selective in what they write, you may as well write off 95 percent of the internet as well, for its scarcely less partisan. Look at the FFZ on this grate site and you will see my point.

Hey, I tried.

[JasonJ]

38 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If books are selective in what they write, you may as well write off 95 percent of the internet as well, for its scarcely less partisan. Look at the FFZ on this grate site and you will see my point.

Hey, I tried.

Books being selective, or just not fully comprehensive, shouldn't come as a surprise. Which is why people ask for recommendation books. They want to be sure that they get a good one that has established credibility and deserved acclaim. "Hey, I tried" sounds hysterical or a fake punch line. zzz 

Edited September 28, 2021 by JasonJ

[sunday]

9 minutes ago, JasonJ said:

Books being selective, or just not fully comprehensive, shouldn't come as a surprise. Which is why people ask for recommendation books. They want to be sure that they get a good one that has established credibility and deserved acclaim. "Hey, I tried" sounds hysterical or a fake punch line. zzz 

Also there is the case of books being for some people like light to transparent glass, that passes through the later without harming, staining, nor modifying it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/polish-government-to-ask-president-to-extend-state-of-emergency-on-belarus-border/ar-AAOUFQV?ocid=BingNewsSearch

WARSAW (Reuters) - The Polish government will ask the president to extend a state of emergency on the Belarus border by 60 days, a spokesman said on Tuesday, due to a surge in migration that Warsaw blames on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Poland and fellow European Union states Lithuania and Latvia have reported sharp increases in migrants from countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq trying to cross their borders, in what Brussels and Warsaw say is a form of hybrid warfare designed to put pressure on the bloc over sanctions it imposed on Minsk.

"The Council of Ministers decided to ask President Andrzej Duda to extend the state of emergency for another 60 days ... the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border is still very difficult," Piotr Muller told a news conference.

Earlier on Tuesday President Duda's spokesman, Blazej Spychalski, told state run news agency PAP that the head of state would make a decision on the issue by Friday.

Poland declared the emergency at the start of September, but the nationalist government has faced criticism from human rights advocates over its treatment of migrants at the frontier.

On Monday, Poland's interior minister Mariusz Kaminski said material related to Islamist extremism had been found on the phones of migrants crossing its border.

[Stuart Galbraith]

22 minutes ago, JasonJ said:

Books being selective, or just not fully comprehensive, shouldn't come as a surprise. Which is why people ask for recommendation books. They want to be sure that they get a good one that has established credibility and deserved acclaim. "Hey, I tried" sounds hysterical or a fake punch line. zzz 

Its about information Jason. Either you want to inform yourself, or you dont.

To be honest, I really dont mind cheap shots on this site saying im uninformed, because I know 9 10ths of the time Ive read it in a book, and they just looked something up on Facebook or watched fox news  or listened to some shit thats currently in vogue on the FFZ and think they are an expert.

 When I say 'I tried', I tried to illustrate why I have such established views on this. If you wont engage with the sources I prescribe, you cant really understand my position, or why Eastern Europe right now scares the hell out of me. It should any rational person. 2014 and 2018 should have made people wake up to what the Russian Government is and what its trying to do.  But who wants to listen?

I lay down sources, links and data on this site. If other people wont engage with it, the problem is not mine, its theirs.

 

 

 

[JasonJ]

17 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Its about information Jason. Either you want to inform yourself, or you dont.

To be honest, I really dont mind cheap shots on this site saying im uninformed, because I know 9 10ths of the time Ive read it in a book, and they just looked something up on Facebook or watched fox news  or listened to some shit thats currently in vogue on the FFZ and think they are an expert.

 When I say 'I tried', I tried to illustrate why I have such established views on this. If you wont engage with the sources I prescribe, you cant really understand my position, or why Eastern Europe right now scares the hell out of me. It should any rational person. 2014 and 2018 should have made people wake up to what the Russian Government is and what its trying to do.  But who wants to listen?

I lay down sources, links and data on this site. If other people wont engage with it, the problem is not mine, its theirs.

 

 

 

It's not a matter of a desire to not want to inform myself. Other things come first on my bucket list. It can't be helped. If you think whatever is on my bucket list is a waste of time and of lesser importance, well then I can't help with that. 

[JasonJ]

43 minutes ago, sunday said:

Also there is the case of books being for some people like light to transparent glass, that passes through the later without harming, staining, nor modifying it.

Could happen if one reads too fast. So in the end they "read" it while not really internalizing it. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

I dont believe I said that Jason. Im just making the point, people say 'oh you go on about that so, why do you make such a deal of it'. I cant very well relate the entire volume of Blowing Up Russia, its up to other people to go and read it. Otherwise other people will never understand my position.

 

[sunday]

15 minutes ago, JasonJ said:

Could happen if one reads too fast. So in the end they "read" it while not really internalizing it. 

Yep, that is one way.

Edited September 28, 2021 by sunday

[JasonJ]

Just now, Stuart Galbraith said:

I dont believe I said that Jason. Im just making the point, people say 'oh you go on about that so, why do you make such a deal of it'. I cant very well relate the entire volume of Blowing Up Russia, its up to other people to go and read it. Otherwise other people will never understand my position.

 

Well as I said before this circle of qualification of books, from the amount that I do know, I am of general same posture as you even if not nearly as deeply of an established posture. I can't expect such amount of reciprication from others about everything specific of  stuff that I may know, for example. It's why a group of qualified people is far superior than just one. There's a token of benefit of doubt, particularly when trust is acquired. 

[Nobu]

5 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

If anyone is interested in a list on books ive read on recent Russian history and politics, I can put a full thread up. 

I'd be interested in your reading list on Nixon, actually. I've said it before, the last of the great American presidents.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Niall Ferguson's book on Kissinger is a  good primer on the the foreign policy underpinning  his administration. Or at the very east, how Kissinger thinks.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kissinger-1923-1968-Idealist-Niall-Ferguson-ebook/dp/B00WYGGWMS/ref=sr_1_7?crid=3V1V71NT39T59&dchild=1&keywords=niall+ferguson&qid=1632850530&s=digital-text&sprefix=Niall+fergu%2Cdigital-text%2C206&sr=1-7

Richard Nixon, alone in the White House by Richard Reeves works by day through the Presidency from White House documents and the Nixon tapes. Really good, really indicated he did a lot of competent work.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00BOR8TCO/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

 

Nixon Now podcast can be really good. Yes, it's to some extent propaganda, but that isn't to say the interviews and perspective s are not interesting.

https://player.fm/series/nixon-now-podcast

Admiral Zumwalts book is a really interesting observation on what it was like to serve in the Nixon White House. Particularly interesting his observations of Kissinger, and how Zumwalt was nearly fired by the President 2 weeks from retirement for making favourable comments to naval college graduates about long hair.....

Yes, he was a great President. Not without mistakes, but after reading the Reeves book, it's clear he didn't get a fair shake of the stick.

[Nobu]

Appreciate the list and the insight. Yes, had a similar takeaway from the Nixon Now podcasts, and a lot of what is available on the man online in general. Much of it may be coming from his foundation. 

His library might still be worth a visit, though (stopped by there many years ago on a road trip down Highway 1).

The Reeves book looks damn interesting, just read an extended excerpt. It's now on the to-read list.

[Stuart Galbraith]

It's brilliant. It highlights that there were two Nixons. The one we all know about Watergate, who appeased Pakistan, who indulged in petty corruption, who truly was a dark character. Then there was another man rarely seen, who cares about the environment, native American rights, improving America's position through intelligent foreign policy, and recognising long before anyone else China is doomed to dominate the world. And in the end, was desperate to be liked.

In the end, it seems to a be saying we are all more than one person, and some are just plain contradictory.

Let me know what you think.

[urbanoid]

Ok, so we will build a border wall. Good.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Edited October 1, 2021 by Stuart Galbraith

[urbanoid]

Unfortunately we don't have The Donald™ to make Belarus pay for it.

[bojan]

Why would Belarus pay for it? It was auntie Merkel that invited them...

[seahawk]

Let Germany pay for it, they are paying too little for NATO anyway.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Let Rossiya build it. They like stronk wall.

[RETAC21]

Let the Chinese do it, they know all about walls.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[glenn239]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Let Rossiya build it. They like stronk wall.

But if they build it, they will come.  

Edited October 1, 2021 by glenn239