Belarus

[Stuart Galbraith]

6 hours ago, seahawk said:

You mean like the USA when F-14s intercepted an Egyptian  airliner and forced it to land in Italy...

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/when-u-s-navy-f-14-tomcats-intercepted-and-forced-landing-an-egyptian-boeing-737-carrying-the-achille-lauro-cruise-ship-hijackers

Nope. Because as you doubtless remember, the Americans handed those terrorists (admittedly under protest) over to the Italians who promised to give them a fair trial, and who then  released them all.

TBH, im also not buying the comparison between a bunch of terrorists who shot and killed a man who couldnt walk and then dumped his corpse over the side, with a Journalist whose only crime was pointing out Lukashenko is a dictator. Which of course, he is. Does it make me a terrorist to say it?

Opinions will vary of course....

[bojan]

#itisnotwrongwhenwedoit

Laws exist for a reason and justice is supposed to be blind. Both cases are wrong. One might be for a good reason, one for  bad, but that does not absolve perpetrator of the crime, only might reduce sentence in the court of law.

Or we might understand that international laws are a dead letter on the paper and that historically everyone got away with as far as they could by being backed by the force.

Either way illegality of the act is not in question, only what is used to "justify" it, feel good story or naked force.

Edited May 24, 2021 by bojan

[BansheeOne]

As usual, it's ole' Lavrov who has a conveniently faulty memory. The Austrians didn't force down Morales' aircraft; rather, countries downroute (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal) had closed their airspace to the flight, which then declared an emergency to land in Vienna, allegedly over a faulty fuel indicator. There was some confusion about whether the plane was subsequently searched for Edward Snowden whom the US suspected on board; the Austrians initially said it was, the Bolivians said it wasn't, and the story which eventually emerged that an airport official had entered the aircraft to inquire about the nature of the reported technical problem. The French and Spanish did apologize afterwards, too. 

But as noted, it's hardly the first time an international flight was forced down by a third party en route. In addition to the 1985 case involving the Achille Lauro hijackers, there was one in 1971 where Libya diverted a British airliner to pull off two Sudanese communist coup plotters and hand them over to the neighbors for execution. That's before we come to regular flights actually shot at, or down, while following their usual routes, from the Air France plane fired at by Soviet fighters over East Germany in 1952, to the USS Vincennes incident, to MH17, to the Ukrainian airliner in Iran last year. 

[Roman Alymov]

22 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

TBH, im also not buying the comparison between a bunch of terrorists who shot and killed a man who couldnt walk and then dumped his corpse over the side, with a Journalist whose only crime was pointing out Lukashenko is a dictator. Which of course, he is. Does it make me a terrorist to say it?

What about another journalist, whose only crime was running whistleblower website that disclosed murky deals of US diplomacy and security services around the globe? Or about presidential airplane of another country, from another continent, that was forced to land because of suspicion it was carrying another whistleblower?

I have no sympathies to Lukashenko, who is not only dictator but anti-Russian dictator, but he is surely not champion in this sport.

[Roman Alymov]

21 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

As usual, it's ole' Lavrov who has a conveniently faulty memory. The Austrians didn't force down Morales' aircraft; rather, countries downroute (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal) had closed their airspace to the flight, which then declared an emergency to land in Vienna, allegedly over a faulty fuel indicator. There was some confusion about whether the plane was subsequently searched for Edward Snowden whom the US suspected on board; the Austrians initially said it was, the Bolivians said it wasn't, and the story which eventually emerged that an airport official had entered the aircraft to inquire about the nature of the reported technical problem. The French and Spanish did apologize afterwards, too. 

 

Taking into account confronting statements (“Austria's deputy chancellor, Michael Spindelegger, said that the plane was searched, although the Bolivian Defense Minister denied a search took place, saying Morales had denied entry to his plane”)  I, as skeptical Russian, would rather believe in Lavrov’s version (as “faulty fuel indicator” is too much coincidence with airspace blocked, and search order standing ready is even more unbelievable coincidence). As for me, Bolivians try to downplay the incident (the same way as initially RusAF reported Su-24 shot down by ground fire, not by Turkish fighter). But it is up to you to have your own opinion.

Re apologies, neither French nor Spanish are Austrians.

[Roman Alymov]

And by the way about orders to "avoid Belorussian airspace"  - guess what country airspace is now safe to fly (especially since Ukraine is also mostly avoided from summer 2014)

 

[sunday]

6 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

(especially since Ukraine is also mostly avoided from summer 2014)

A bit too much cynical, this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

[Stuart Galbraith]

So let's look at the differences.

1 it's only been Gaddafis Libya and the Americans who previously did it, and then most recently nearly 4 decades ago, and as we saw, did not actually get away with it because the Italians refused to accept it.

2 Neither used the paper thin excuse there was a bomb in board which may have endangered the passengers if the aircrew had decided to conduct an emergency descent.

3 We are actually conflating a journalist who reported on a male protester being raped by Belarus police with a truncheon, who may actually face the death penalty for his efforts, to PLF terrorists that murdered a Jew and got away Scot free.

Please, take it to the Hague, personally I think even the Wookie defence looks a better bet.

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world.

 

[seahawk]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

What about another journalist, whose only crime was running whistleblower website that disclosed murky deals of US diplomacy and security services around the globe? Or about presidential airplane of another country, from another continent, that was forced to land because of suspicion it was carrying another whistleblower?

I have no sympathies to Lukashenko, who is not only dictator but anti-Russian dictator, but he is surely not champion in this sport.

I hope this incident will make Belarus align more with Russia, so that both can form a unified front against NATO aggression.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

A bit too much cynical, this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

Airlines mostly avoiding Ukrainian airspace (all of it, not just area declared by official Kiev as "anti-terrorists operation zone") while happily flying in Russian airspace (including areas close to border with Ukraine) clearly indicate where real danger is comming from, despite of all political claims.

[Roman Alymov]

51 minutes ago, seahawk said:

I hope this incident will make Belarus align more with Russia, so that both can form a unified front against NATO aggression.

It will certanly reduce Lukashenko's ability to milk two cows. But it does not mean he will become less anti-Russian (since only by keeping his anti_Russian policy he could stay President - othervice he will quickly become just another Russian region Governor).

[sunday]

Yes, cynical, very cynical.

[BansheeOne]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

Re apologies, neither French nor Spanish are Austrians.

And the Austrians didn't force the plane down either. That's something they and the Bolivians agreed throughout. In fact the Austrian government said them letting the aircraft land showed that they were not afraid of the US which supposedly instigated the others to close their airspace. 😋

Of course turning back a foreign government aircraft is a sovereign decision of a nation, if bad form to do it at short notice after prior authorization. Though if Lukashenko had just denied overflight to the Ryanair plane on the grounds that he didn't want Belorussian airspace soiled by the presence of dissidents, everyone would have been really annoyed, too, but hardly had reason to talk of state terrorism and sanctions. However, I see the local Putinbots are already filling up the comment sections with comparisons to the Morales affair in remarkable unison, like they all got a mass mailing or something. Even though the 1985 Egypt Air incident would be a much better comparison; but I guess it lacks the EU reference. 

In fact looking at the latter case would have been instructive on why not to do it, even if the targets there were honest-to-God terrorists who had hijacked a whole cruise ship and killed a man in a wheelchair; something the Egyptian government first denied knowledge of, then claimed the perpetrators had already left the country for parts unknown, then tried to quietly fly them out. You might call this a typical American operation: admirable can-do attitude, much bravado, good feelings about doing the right thing, little thought of effects. They put all involved in a bind, including the Egyptians, the Italians, and themselves. In the end they had to apologize to Egypt, too, lest popular outrage force Mubarak to turn away from them, towards his fellow Arabs, and possibly the Soviets and against Israel, destroying the fruits of the Camp David Accords. Lukashenko is about to learn the same lesson. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Guy on CNN made a good point, if the instruction was to land at the nearest airport, that would have been Vilnius. The conclusion is it was the Mig29 that forced the issue.

From the point when the aircraft turned, it was almost out their airspace before they got it to turn. You have to wonder if they got the word fairly late.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

[BansheeOne]

Quote

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus after plane diversion

31m ago

EU leaders agreed to ban Belarus carriers from flying over the bloc's airspace.

The EU on Monday agreed to slap new sanctions on Belarus, after Minsk forced a plane flying over its airspace to land in order to arrest a Belarusian dissident onboard.

The EU decided to ban Belarusian carriers from flying over the bloc's airspace in response to the diversion. The sanctions were approved by the EU during a summit in Brussels.

A statement from the EU called on European authorities "to adopt necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports."

The bloc also requested EU carriers to refrain from flying over Belarusian airspace.

EU leaders condemned the arrest of 26-year-old Raman Pratasevich, a Belarusian dissident and blogger who was arrested by authorities after the plane was grounded in Minsk.

The bloc called on the International Civil Aviation Organization to conduct an investigation into the incident. Some European leaders have characterized the event as state-sponsored "hijacking" or "piracy" of a passenger aircraft.

What have Belarusian authorities said about the incident?

Belarusian authorities have claimed the plane was at risk due to a bomb threat from Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas.

https://m.dw.com/en/eu-imposes-sanctions-on-belarus-after-plane-diversion/a-57649121

[Simon Tan]

Bidenbot has spoken.

[Roman Alymov]

10 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Guy on CNN made a good point, if the instruction was to land at the nearest airport, that would have been Vilnius. The conclusion is it was the Mig29 that forced the issue.

From the point when the aircraft turned, it was almost out their airspace before they got it to turn. You have to wonder if they got the word fairly late.

I do not remember your complains about Ukraine doing the same  in 2016 (with direct threats of using combat aviation right from the start, and this plane was only 10 km from Ukraine-Belorussian border)

Kiev Is Burning - Page 617 - Military Current Events - tanknet.org

"Belavia passenger Boeing 737-800 (flight Kiev-Minsk) was forced by Ukrainian air traffic control to turn back to Kiev when only 50 km from Belorussian border, under threat of sending fighter jets to intercept it and without any explanations. When arriving back to Kiev airport, one passenger (citizen of Armenia) was arrested, but released later the same day. http://telegraf.com.ua/ukraina/mestnyiy/2922444-ukraina-vernula-v-kiev-belorusskiy-samolet-pod-ugrozoy-podnyat-istrebiteli.html      Not surprising Russian passenger jets and, as it seems from Flightradar, most of transit flights avoiding free Ukraine, doing extra miles over evil Russia.

After Ukraine SBU offically denied threats to send fighters to intercept Belavia passenger flight, recording of conversation was published by Belorussian officials

 

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by Roman Alymov

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Its a non comparison. They didnt scramble jets, they didnt retain the person accused, they didnt torture him. So once again, its a wookie defence.

Besides, if you are suggesting that what Ukraine does is right for all time, doubtless you will not complain when Belarusians force Lukashenko from office. Yes/No/Other?

 

[seahawk]

Lukashenko gone would open the door for a re-unification of Belarus with Russia. It would be great.

[Simon Tan]

There really is no better driver of reunification between Moscow and Minsk than the genius acitivities of MI6 et al. Everyone on their payroll in Minsk just got burned. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

5 minutes ago, seahawk said:

Lukashenko gone would open the door for a re-unification of Belarus with Russia. It would be great.

Oh I dont doubt thats coming, whether Belarusians want it or not.

[bojan]

Vast majority does not seem to care.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Doesnt sound that way to me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election

According to a poll conducted back in March–April 2020 by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, the level of trust of current Lukashenko in the capital city of Belarus is 24%. At the same time, 11% of the poll participants trust the Central Election Commission.^[124]

The state-affiliated analytical center "Ecoom" commissioned by the state TV channel ONT, which was criticized for its biased coverage of the election campaign {{cn}} , conducted a sociological survey of electoral moods and preferences of citizens. According to this data, incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko enjoyed support of 72.3% of citizens. At the same time, no more than 10% in total were ready to vote for the remaining candidates.^[125][126]

Opinion polling in Belarus requires a government license. Media outlets are also banned from conducting online polls regarding the election.^[127]

 

[Stefan Kotsch]

As an an example.

By Octobre 1989, 89% of the citizens of the East Germany were enthusiastic about the government's policies. 😎

And then ... noiseless implosion.