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Will see what actually changes on the ground. I suspect suspending the licensing of Nordstream 2 applies some pressure to Belarus indirectly. If Lukashenko wants to keep his seat, I'm pretty sure he listens to whatever Putin says.

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I think its right to view Lukashenko as a puppet, but not necessarily a loyal one. He is talking about Russia defending Belarusia's borders which Putin is not likely to do right now if he wants to tackle Ukraine. And he turned off the oil, temporarily it seems, which seems to be directly contrary to what Putin said he would do.

Not that I trust Putin more than I can spit him, but I think, as we once did with the Warsaw pact, assume flawless allies here, and I think, as again with the Pact, when you look into it, there is probably zero love lost and significant arguments we are not seeing.

For Putin its a matter of standing up Lukashenko with minimum effort. I think its inevitable that the longer this goes on, the more difficult this is going to get for him. At some point they have a binary choice of either invading and solving it once and for all, or try and push a candidate that is likely to fulfill Russia's interests. I dont see either option as an easy choice. I dont see another obvious Lukashenko waiting in the wings, and the longer he keeps pushing this agenda, the more likely the next Belarus leader is going to put as much daylight as they can between themselves and Russia.

 

 

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Well I suppose while Putin can apply pressure, at the other end of the spectrum Lukashenko is the only game in town for Putin. What are you going to do, displace him and install another dictator in a country already rife with political instability? So like Un Poco and Honey Bear, there's probably a lot of give and take behind the scenes.

I will note that Belarus started rounding up immigrants within 48 hours of Nord Stream 2 having its license pulled though.

Edited by Josh
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Poland-Belarus border: Repatriated Iraqi migrants arrive home

31m ago

A group of Iraqis arrived back in their country on board a plane sent by the Iraqi government. They had been stranded at the Poland-Belarus border in dire conditions.

Iraq began the voluntary repatriations of its citizens from Belarus on Thursday amid the ongoing humanitarian crisis near the border between Poland and Belarus.

The Iraqi Ministry of Transport confirmed that the repatriated individuals arrived in the Kurdish city of Erbil.

Iraq has appealed for Iraqi citizens to fly home, telling them the way into the European Union is closed. 

Some 431 people were on an Iraqi Airways flight from Minsk to Baghdad, Russian state-run Interfax reported.

Migrants stranded at the Poland-Belarus border

Belarusian Authorities have said that some 7,000 migrants are in the country. President Alexander Lukashenko has proposed returning 5,000 migrants to their home countries and urged the EU to take 2,000 of the stranded migrants in a phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer rejected an alleged Belarusian proposal to Merkel as "misinformation." Following talks with his Polish counterpart, Seehofer said that Germany "will not take in refugees." 

The EU border agency Frontex is working with the Polish and Iraqi authorities on arranging charter flights from Poland.

Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa al-Khadimi told him flights to Minsk from Iraq will remain suspended.

Belarusian state media also said Thursday that Belarus' forces had cleared the two main encampments at the border with Poland. A Polish border guard spokesperson told Reuters news agency that the two camps in Bruzgi, near Poland's border, had indeed been emptied. But officials in both governments have yet to confirm the reports. 

[...] 

https://m.dw.com/en/poland-belarus-border-repatriated-iraqi-migrants-arrive-home/a-59853919

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7 hours ago, Josh said:

Will see what actually changes on the ground. I suspect suspending the licensing of Nordstream 2 applies some pressure to Belarus indirectly. If Lukashenko wants to keep his seat, I'm pretty sure he listens to whatever Putin says.

Why are you so sure it is not in Russian interests to postpone Nord Stream-2 activation? I am not economic expert, but a lot of commenters believe that NG price rise in 2021 ALLREADY compensated all Gazprom investments in NS-2 construction, so now they could wait for as long as they like, and taking into account that actual start of NG transportation via NS-2 would probably decrease the price of NG on European (and global – since it is globally integrated) market, as it will make gas transport system more reliable and reduce losses  - resulting in less need for reserves – it is not exactly in Russian interests, since every next day of high prices is bringing Russia financial and political benefits. Also high energy prices are in China interests, since European industry is less competitive to Chinese one in this conditions.

https://youtu.be/id-oGXFnm40

So Lukashenko’s move could be actually against Russian interests  - and it is common for his actions.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/john-bolton-says-us-should-consider-ousting-belarus-lukashenko-to-a-nice-villa-on-the-riviera.html

John Bolton says U.S. should consider ousting Belarus’ Lukashenko from office to ‘a nice villa on the Riviera’

I think we’ve all been making a mistake by focusing on Lukashenko’s repression of the opposition’s demonstrations [and] their desire for a free representative government in Belarus, not to say that there is anything that justifies what Lukashenko has done,” Bolton told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum on Wednesday.

Edited by Roman Alymov
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This was an interesting rabbithole.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byelorussian_Soviet_Socialist_Republic

The term Byelorussia (Russian: Белору́ссия, derives from the term Belaya Rus' , i.e., White Rus'. There are several claims to the origin of the name White Rus'.[5] An ethno-religious theory suggests that the name used to describe the part of old Ruthenian lands within the Grand Duchy of Lithuania that had been populated mostly by early Christianized Slavs, as opposed to Black Ruthenia, which was predominantly inhabited by pagan Balts.[6]

The latter part similar but spelled and stressed differently from Росси́я, Russia) first rose in the days of the Russian Empire, and the Russian Tsar was usually styled "the Tsar of All the Russias", as Russia or the Russian Empire was formed by three parts of Russia—the Great, Little, and White.[7] This asserted that the territories are all Russian and all the peoples are also Russian; in the case of the Belarusians, they were variants of the Russian people.[8]

Following the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, the term "White Russia" caused some confusion as it was also the name of the military force that opposed the red Bolsheviks.[9] During the period of the Byelorussian SSR, the term Byelorussia was embraced as part of a national consciousness.

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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-to-send-more-troops-to-polish-border-amid-fears-migrants-will-eventually-make-way-to-uk/ar-AAQSoha?ocid=uxbndlbing

Britain is to deploy more troops to the Polish border with Belarus, amid mounting Cabinet concerns over the influx of migrants into the EU and crossing the Channel. 

Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, announced on Thursday that around 100 soldiers from the Royal Engineers would be sent to help physically reinforce the Polish frontier, where tens of thousands of people have been trying to cross into the bloc.

The move marks the UK apart in Europe, as no EU nation has yet unilaterally offered support to Warsaw. 

Whitehall believes the crisis on the Polish border has been “manufactured” by Moscow, as the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine grows.

Concerns have also intensified, however, that those trying to cross the Polish border could ultimately aim for the UK, as anxiety grows in Parliament about migrants crossing the Channel.

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estonia has a week-long snap drill  for pioneer units 

https://news.err.ee/1608405422/government-calls-up-1-684-reservists-for-snap-training-exercise-okas-2021  and some of the reservists that came for exercise also agreed to volunteer for a short tour in Poland

https://news.err.ee/1608408449/estonia-sending-almost-100-defense-forces-members-to-poland

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Poland confirms Belarus migrant camp empty

18m ago

All migrants from the improvised camp on Polish border have now "voluntarily relocated" to a nearby logistics center, according to Belarusian officials. However, Poland reported more isolated border crossing attempts.

Polish officials confirmed all migrants have left an improvised camp on the Belarusian side of the bordera after days-long standoff.

On Friday, Polish police and border guards published drone footage of the now-empty site near the Belarusian town of Bruzgi.

"Today the camp near the border crossing of Bruzgi was deserted," the border guard tweeted.

"Belarusian services directed the foreigners to a transports and logistics center located several hundred meters (yards) away."

Previously, Belarusian officials said all of the camp residents "voluntarily relocated" to the center due to "deteriorating conditions."

In another sign of easing tensions, Iraq said hundreds of Iraqi nationals had been repatriated from Belarus.

At the same time, Poland's border guard accused Belarus of trucking in more migrants late on Thursday for another attempt to enter Polish territory.

"At the beginning there were 100 people, but then the Belarusian side brought more people in trucks. Then there were 500 people," said Polish Border Guard spokeswoman Anna Michalska.

"People in the largest group ... threw rocks and someone also hurled tear gas at Polish officials. At the same time the Belarusian personnel were using lasers to blind them," she told the AFP news agency.

Poland says Belarusian forces instruct migrants

The standoff between Poland and Belarus intensified last week when thousands of migrants first attempted to breach the border barrier protecting the EU's eastern border.

Poland and the EU accuse Belarus of luring in migrants from the Middle East, flying them to Belarus, and then organizing their transport to border areas as a "hybrid attack" against the bloc.

[...] 

https://m.dw.com/en/poland-confirms-belarus-migrant-camp-empty/a-59885233

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On 11/18/2021 at 6:44 PM, ex2cav said:

I wonder how Bolton would plan to do that?

America has a whole busload of Kardashian chicks. Charter a jet, fly them to Belarus, tell them Belarus is chock full of pro athletes and other rich celebs, let nature take its course.

 

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56 minutes ago, Simon Tan said:

But that is what you want and are too shy to say.

i do not wish you ill. i´ve seen my father-in-law die of cancer, mother-in-law to corona. i see my son grow , see the choices, decisions people do, try to realize logic of those choices (even if they are wrong IMO). i´ve mellowed a lot during last decade.

i have  quite low social skills and i have isolated myself largely from social interactions with other people and social media.   some threads in tanknet and local mil. forum is all i visit nowadays. and it´s good for mental state.

due to that very limited view  however i notice more trends on these threads and how posters act , over the years.

and you have changed . what´s the reason - decadence of west, toxic posters (incl. me ), midlife crisis - i don´t know and it´s not my business, but yes, you are becoming more and more like DIU. and in his posts one could see the current stater of his ulcers in that given day. 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, sunday said:

Here in Spain we have a saying: Quien dice las verdades, pierde las amistades.

Freely translated it could mean that some friendships are unable to withstand naked, truthful facts.

and this applied to me or simon? 😃

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On 11/19/2021 at 11:08 AM, Stuart Galbraith said:

This was an interesting rabbithole.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byelorussian_Soviet_Socialist_Republic

The term Byelorussia (Russian: Белору́ссия, derives from the term Belaya Rus' , i.e., White Rus'. There are several claims to the origin of the name White Rus'.[5] An ethno-religious theory suggests that the name used to describe the part of old Ruthenian lands within the Grand Duchy of Lithuania that had been populated mostly by early Christianized Slavs, as opposed to Black Ruthenia, which was predominantly inhabited by pagan Balts.[6]

The latter part similar but spelled and stressed differently from Росси́я, Russia) first rose in the days of the Russian Empire, and the Russian Tsar was usually styled "the Tsar of All the Russias", as Russia or the Russian Empire was formed by three parts of Russia—the Great, Little, and White.[7] This asserted that the territories are all Russian and all the peoples are also Russian; in the case of the Belarusians, they were variants of the Russian people.[8]

Following the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, the term "White Russia" caused some confusion as it was also the name of the military force that opposed the red Bolsheviks.[9] During the period of the Byelorussian SSR, the term Byelorussia was embraced as part of a national consciousness.

Russian Wikipedia page on it provides far more detailed hidtoric data on how this name, initially associated with Nortern Russia, “drifted” over centuries to part of Russia occupied by Lithuanina

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Белая_Русь

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