Belarus

[sunday]

Switzerland does not seem to be swamped by illegal immigrants. Wonder how they do that...

I find the recourse to "Christian values" of the pro immigrant Leftists quite remarkable. Seems those  same Leftists think the same "Christian values" do interfere with separation of Church and State when they are about abortion, divorce, marriage, and/or education. Christmas decorations, even.

Back to Belarus, has the EU or the NATO done something in order to preserve the integrity of the Polish border? I know Spain sent some fighter planes to Lithuania not so long ago in order to preserve Lithuanian air space or something like that.

Edited November 10, 2021 by sunday

[Daan]

12 hours ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

We weren't talking about the EU, we were talking about members of this grate site whom were implied to be disinterested. I remember talking about it, don't recall your good self though.

What does all this have to do with Belarus? Nothing. It's just one more example of you silly buggers going off on a tangent, and ignoring there are now elements of 4 Polish Divisions in the border of Belarus. Kind of more difficult for the poles to go to war with Turkey.

And they call me clueless. Jesus wept.

These comments are of course related to the Belarussian events, as they are the result of the EU letting itself be blackmailed successfully by dictatorships weaponizing migration. Gaddafi was an early practitioner, later followed by Erdogan, the Moroccan regime and now Lukashenko.   

[Roman Alymov]

12 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Guess I could find reasons not to pay Turkey back then and even more reasons not to pay Belarus now. First thing, Turkey didn't engineer everything from the beginning, Belarus did, it was Minsk looking for migrants, flying them in and sending them West.

I hope we close the border totally, absolutely no movement of people, goods, anything.

I hope you will – since it will be significant boost for Russian Baltic Sea ports. Also thank you for providing practical example why NordStream 1 and 2 were needed (I doubt German industry is pleased with idea of its energy supply to be depending on extravagant Poland decisions).

Re "Turkey didn't engineer everything" - let me remind you Turkey was and still is one of driving forces of civil war in Syria.

[Roman Alymov]

1 hour ago, sunday said:

Back to Belarus, has the EU or the NATO done something in order to preserve the integrity of the Polish border? 

EU pressed Iraq to stop passanger flights to Minsk, as far as i remember. 

[sunday]

11 minutes ago, Roman Alymov said:

EU pressed Iraq to stop passanger flights to Minsk, as far as i remember. 

The EU has not done very much, then.

[BansheeOne]

2 hours ago, Ssnake said:

That's not to say that anyone in Germany wants an encore (except for a handful of die-hard pro-refugee activists). And I think that most European states are better prepared now, except, ironically, Poland which successfully hid behind the border walls of others, adamant in its position that there should be no regulation to distribute migrants proportionally within the European Union.

I don't expect too much time to pass until they start whistling a different tune.

In fact I think I can hear the sniggering by the Greeks and Italians who were told by the Eastern Europeans that it was their problem in 2015/16 from where I sit. Though I suspect the current border crisis isn't entirely unwelcome to the current Polish government either, as it permits them to present themselves as the guardians of the empire against political critics at home and abroad. Except of course aforementioned die-hard refugee activists throughout Europe, for whom it is another point of criticism. 

Let's not forget the initial ammunition for traffickers' propaganda in the first refugee crisis was delivered as early as late 2014 by an internal memo of the German immigration agency that Syrians would from now on be rubberstamped in due to limited ressources for dealing with the increasing mass being leaked to "Pro Asylum", who promptly put it on the net. Popular sentiment was actually about 50:50 for letting them all in until it became evident in late 2015 what that really meant.

The images of the applauding crowd welcoming the Hungarian 10,000 at Munich central station were another piece of ammunition which ironically led to the eventual facedown with reality. That Merkel never "opened" the borders rather than not closing them (in particular when Orban bussed the 10,000 to Austria - though controls were introduced) will probably become one of the ingrained popular detail errors which historians will forever point out to no avail.

Much less the motivations in the subsequent quarrel over whether to close down the Balkan route or not. As always, Merkel's commitment to keeping established systems running made her fear what closed internal borders would do to the Common Market as the fundament of the EU, particularly if insular Greece was cut off and left to deal with the influx alone. The pro-closure southeast Europeans belatedly realized the truth in that when they complained about their exports being stuck in border jams due to the controls being maintained by Germany for years to deal with the downslope of the wave.

[urbanoid]

1 hour ago, Roman Alymov said:

I hope you will – since it will be significant boost for Russian Baltic Sea ports. Also thank you for providing practical example why NordStream 1 and 2 were needed (I doubt German industry is pleased with idea of its energy supply to be depending on extravagant Poland decisions).

Re "Turkey didn't engineer everything" - let me remind you Turkey was and still is one of driving forces of civil war in Syria.

Defense of borders and sanctions for countries enabling its violations are not extravagance, just common sense.

Turkey happened to be where it was possible for migrants/refugees/whatever to come on their own, where they became a big problem for Turkey. And no, I don't think they should have been paid. Belarus actively searched for and offered assistance to potential migrants to send them to EU borders, including flying them in from the Middle East.

[bojan]

2 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

...including flying them in from the Middle East.

They pay their airplane ticket.

[urbanoid]

49 minutes ago, BansheeOne said:

In fact I think I can hear the sniggering by the Greeks and Italians who were told by the Eastern Europeans that it was their problem in 2015/16 from where I sit.

The thing is, back in 2015 we weren't asked to help to keep the migrants OUT, but to let some of them IN. If it was the former, I'm pretty sure we would have helped.

[RETAC21]

2 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Defense of borders and sanctions for countries enabling its violations are not extravagance, just common sense.

Turkey happened to be where it was possible for migrants/refugees/whatever to come on their own, where they became a big problem for Turkey. And no, I don't think they should have been paid. Belarus actively searched for and offered assistance to potential migrants to send them to EU borders, including flying them in from the Middle East.

It should also be noted at this point, that this and previous emigrant waves have shown that these people would rather move to Germany or France (in the case of Africans) rather than remain where they first land in the EU. So what may look like a problem for the border countries is in fact an issue for the whole EU.

[urbanoid]

Just now, bojan said:

They pay their airplane ticket.

And they pay the smugglers as well, so what? They are promised they'll be able to get to the EU, the presence of migrants in Belarus is entirely the regime's doing, they orchestrated it from the start.

[urbanoid]

Just now, RETAC21 said:

It should also be noted at this point, that this and previous emigrant waves have shown that these people would rather move to Germany or France (in the case of Africans) rather than remain where they first land in the EU. So what may look like a problem for the border countries is in fact an issue for the whole EU.

Oh, I'm pretty sure that they wouldn't stay in Poland, we have no gibz for them.

[bojan]

8 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

And they pay the smugglers as well, so what?

Free market. Do they need visa to visit Belarus? No. Did they need visa to visit Serbia*? No. Is there a demand to go to those countries? Yes. Do they go to those countries and then try to get to EU? Yes. Why would air-companies limit a number of flights if they have more passengers than ever?

I have all the sympathy with Poland on this, since I consider that every country has a right to determine who enters and who does not, but a problem is much deeper than "Belarus".

Also, look at Ssnake's excelent post.

*But since local moron was an Auntie's favorite dog... no stink was risen over this.

Edited November 10, 2021 by bojan

[bojan]

3 hours ago, sunday said:

Switzerland does not seem to be swamped by illegal immigrants. Wonder how they do that...

Because they have learned from a wave of Albanians in the '90s.

[urbanoid]

1 minute ago, bojan said:

Free market. Do they need visa to visit Belarus? No. Do they need visa to visit Serbia? No. Do they go to those countries and then try to get to EU? Yes. Why should either country impose visa on them when they are not breaking local laws until they try to cross a border?

I have all the sympathy with Poland on this, since I consider that every country has a right to determine who enters and who does not, but a problem is much deeper than "Belarus".

Also, look at Ssnake's excelent post.

They are watching from behind as they are breaking the law, trying to illegally cross the border. After escorting them to said border. After flying them in with the intention to send them to the border. Sure, all coincidences.

[urbanoid]

3 hours ago, sunday said:

Back to Belarus, has the EU or the NATO done something in order to preserve the integrity of the Polish border? I know Spain sent some fighter planes to Lithuania not so long ago in order to preserve Lithuanian air space or something like that.

The EU wasn't asked to do anything 'physically'. Oh, they offered to send Frontex if we wanted them, but we apparently don't, with good reasons I might add. We declared state of emergency in the area, so we can keep 'refugees welcome' bleeding hearts and jo*rnalists out. As for political stuff, more sanctions on Belarus would be welcome.

NATO? Maybe we could invoke Article 4, so there will be some blah blah blah consultations.

 

[sunday]

48 minutes ago, bojan said:

Because they have learned from a wave of Albanians in the '90s.

I hope the EU will learn also, without too much pain.

35 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The EU wasn't asked to do anything 'physically'. Oh, they offered to send Frontex if we wanted them, but we apparently don't, with good reasons I might add. We declared state of emergency in the area, so we can keep 'refugees welcome' bleeding hearts and jo*rnalists out. As for political stuff, more sanctions on Belarus would be welcome.

NATO? Maybe we could invoke Article 4, so there will be some blah blah blah consultations.

 

Savvy move. Local Red Cross here seems more intent on bringing illegals here than in helping national citizens during some dire times.

[BansheeOne]

38 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

The thing is, back in 2015 we weren't asked to help to keep the migrants OUT, but to let some of them IN. If it was the former, I'm pretty sure we would have helped.

As Ssnake noted, the question was about distributing those who had already gotten ashore (and a sea border is more difficult to enforce than a land border; pushing people back from a fence is one thing, but driving them back to sea will create a moral quagmire even for a base that's generally anti-immigration). The folks who landed in Greece and Italy generally didn't want to stay there, but under the Dublin Accords the countries were legally stuck with them.

Mind, Germany only got on the EU-wide distribution train when the system broke down and the masses made their way north; previously it was completely okay with it being the Southerners' problem, even though the latter always tended to turn a sullen blind eye to individuals slipping away. By the same token, Poland is principally stuck with anyone making it to their territory, even though most probably want to go on to Germany.

We currently have about 1,000 per week crossing the Polish-German border; last month it was a total of ca. 5,300, up from 1,900 in September, 500 in August, and 26 in the entire preceding seven months. That's far from the numbers of 2015/16 though, and Germany isn't yet likely to introduce the kind of border controls it did back then with Austria, for the same reasons - not impeding free movement in the Common Market, which would have economic repercussions for Poland and the Baltic States. If the situation continues or worsens however, that will be condition to a European solution being found. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1519332/eu-news-Alexander-Lukashenko-Belarus-migrant-border

Speaking on state television, long-standing Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko told the EU: “You b******s, you madmen, you want me to protect you from migrants?” In an interview with a Russian magazine, Mr Lukashenko warned against “provocations” at the border, adding: “If we make the slightest mistake here, God forbid, Russia will immediately be drawn into it, the largest nuclear power in the world.”

What a prize twat.

[urbanoid]

If it wasn't for what we're doing it would be 10 or 20 times that crossing Polish-German border, we're stopping and pushing back (which is technically illegal - laughable all by itself) all that we can. We'll be able to stop even more as long as we're not being... watched too closely.

Sure, I understand the basis for decisions made back then, that doesn't mean I consider them sensible. I'm pretty sure we would help not only in stopping/pushing back migrants, but in mass deportations as well, if only such a decision was made, that would make both the Southerners and the rest reasonably happy (or less unhappy). Taking them in was considered too much.

[bojan]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

They are watching from behind as they are breaking the law, trying to illegally cross the border....

At least locally, all "tourists" had legit exit stamp in the passport. My guess is that they have Belarus one also. That they did not have visa for EU country they wanted to get into is not transit country problem.

Edited November 10, 2021 by bojan

[urbanoid]

6 minutes ago, bojan said:

At least locally, all tourists had legit "exit" stamp in the passport. My guess is that they have Belarus one also. That they did not have visa for EU country they wanted to get in is not exiting country problem.

Gee, I wonder if there were Serbian soldiers escorting those people to the borders and not letting them back after their way into the EU was blocked. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

There are now multiple reports the Belarusian Border guards have been firing over their heads to try and herd them into Poland. So there is that, and multiple reports they have been actively searching for migrants and flying them in via the national airline. None of this is remotely comparable to what Turkey did, which was bad enough to be sure, but not to the point of going out their way to search for a problem to dump on the Europeans.

 

[BansheeOne]

2 hours ago, urbanoid said:

If it wasn't for what we're doing it would be 10 or 20 times that crossing Polish-German border, we're stopping and pushing back (which is technically illegal - laughable all by itself) all that we can. We'll be able to stop even more as long as we're not being... watched too closely.

Certainly, but the point remains that under the Dublin Accords, Poland is responsible for those who enter it as the first country of the EU. Again, it has the benefit of a land border; others in the same situation like Croatia and, partially, Greece have taken to rather robust enforcement of same with a certain nonchalance towards international rules regarding pushbacks since the 2015/16 crisis, too, so this is nothing new.

Poland therefore would have to care at most for a couple ten thousand at a time, depending upon how fast it can handle proceedings to establish status and possible subsequent deportations, and how successful it is in negotiating with the countries of origin to take back their proven citizens, always the biggest obstacle. That's similar to Greece today, far from the about one million they had in 2015/16.

Likely it won't even come to that because again, Germany is always hesitant to close its own borders, the process to make countries of entry take back people who went through them first is itself terribly bureaucratic, fraught with legalities and political reluctance (last year Germany only sent less than 3,000 back to other EU countries and itself received more than 3,000, so it's more or less a zero-sum game), and frankly, with current numbers it's just not worth the bother. Still, the legal situation is the same for Poland now as for Greece then; you're just lucky to have more accommodating neighbors. 

Apropos of Greece and how Turkey is doing the same, the former seems to think the situation convenient to point out the latter again. 

Quote

Greece accuses Turkey of pushing migrants into its waters

13h ago

Greek officials claim Turkey is acting like a "pirate state in the Aegean Sea" in regards to migrants. Athens has called on the EU to put pressure on Ankara to meet its international obligations.

Greek authorities have released a video of Turkish boats appearing to escort a rubber dinghy filled with migrants into Greek territorial waters.

Athens frequently blames Ankara for failing to crack down on smugglers who send out migrants in unsafe boats from its shores in breach of a 2016 accord with the European Union.

Under the accord, Turkey was to reduce the flow of migrants through its territory to EU countries such as Greece in return for billions in financial aid. 

What did Greek authorities say about the video?

"The video shows without a doubt the efforts of Turkish coast guard vessels to make dangerous maneuvers to guide the dinghy to Greek waters," the Greek Coast Guard said in a statement accompanying the video. 

The statement added that the coast guard prevented the migrants from entering Greek waters. The Turkish vessel and dinghy eventually headed back to the Turkish coast.

Greek Maritime Affairs Minister Giannis Plakiotakis accused Turkey of acting like a "pirate state in the Aegean Sea, breaching its engagements with the European Union."

Plakiotakis called on the EU to put "greater pressure on Turkey to comply with its international obligations."

Both Greece and Turkey have accused each other of failing to abide by the  2016 refugee deal with the EU. 

Turkey, for its part, says Greece has not been cooperative and has treated asylum-seekers in an inhumane fashion.

Greek PM spars with reporter over migration

As the Greek government slams Turkey for its approach to migrants, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mistotakis is also facing criticism from the media and human rights organizations over his response to the crisis.

A Dutch journalist, Ingeborg Beugel, accused Mitsotakis on Tuesday of engaging in "narcissistic abuse" in regards to migrants. Beugel was attending a news conference between Mitsotakis and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Athens.

Beugel said the Greek leader was "lying" about the country's pushbacks of migrants. Human rights organizations, including the UN refugee agency UNHCR, have previously alleged that Greece is pushing back migrants away from its land and sea borders towards Turkey.

[...] 

Greece is one of the top entry points for migrants into the EU. Mitsotakis, whose centre-right New Democracy party came to power in 2019, has previously expressed frustration that other EU countries are not sharing the burden of hosting asylum-seekers.

https://m.dw.com/en/greece-accuses-turkey-of-pushing-migrants-into-its-waters/a-59772770

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/belarus-poland-news-live-russia-sends-nuclear-capable-bombers-to-belarus-airspace-as-border-crisis-deepens/ar-AAQxa9I?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Russia dispatched two nuclear-capable strategic bombers to patrol Belarusian airspace in a show of strength amid a deepening row with the EU over migrants at the Belarus/Poland border.

The Kremlin said it sent two Tu-22M3 aircraft, capable of carrying nuclear missiles - including hypersonic weapons of the kind designed to evade air defences - to fly over Belarus on Wednesday

It came after an escalation in hostilities at the border, which saw two groups of migrants crossing into Poland before being detained by officials.