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Anti Lukashenka protest have been going on for several weeks in Belarus after the forged election results.
While beating up on protestors Lukashenka has moved his troops to Western border claiming some kind of NATO forces in Lithuania / Poland that are about to attack him.

At first look it seemed more like trying to redirect the attention away from the street protest and strike actions. With perhaps moving them away from possible reinforcement route of internal troops supplied by Russia.

In last few days after he has started to carry Kalashnikov and riding around over Minsk in a helicopter with his 15 year old son (also packing)

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Yesterday Mi-24 was tasked to destroy evil anti-Belarus flying object (balloons in colors of Belarus white-red-white flag) near Lithuanian border.

 

Lithuania launched a protest as Mi-24 apparently entered Lithuania for a brief period.

 

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1218024/belarus-says-military-helicopters-stopped-lithuanian-balloons-during-freedom-way

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Lukashenka has now raised the readiness level in army to the highest level readiness, with some mobilization effort also stared.

MLRS and Tochka have been deployed to Western Belarus also, airborne, motorized and artillery units.

 

https://defence-blog.com/news/army/belarus-long-range-missile-systems-spotted-near-lithuanian-border.html

 

Lukashenka has told army to respond to any provocations on the border.

 

Mobilization of 3000 troops was announced already before elections. Yesterday additional mobilization actions have leaked (tank battalion of 11 mech brigade).

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Simultaneously Russia is holding exercises of 6000 personnel in Kaliningrad and Leningrad area.

 

https://twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/1297983797984661510

 

Three "Ropucha" class landing craft and "Stereguschiy" class frigate were spotted near 11 miles from Latvian territorial waters.

https://nra.lv/latvija/322949-latvijas-robezas-tuvuma-sodien-konstateti-krievijas-brunoto-speku-desantkugi.htm

 

Russian say it's an exercise.

Video of loading BTRs here: https://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/type/navy/baltic/news/more.htm?id=12309598@egNews

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Apparently Swedes are not so sure.

 

So Swedes announced that they have raised their readiness level to the highest level since 1991 coup in Moscow yesterday.

High readiness action in the Baltic Sea and in Gotland

Headquarters – 25 August 2020 kl: 11.18
The Swedish Armed Forces has initiated a high readiness action in the south-eastern and southern Baltic Sea, due to the current, extensive military activity in the Baltic Sea region.
The Swedish Armed Forces is currently conducting a high readiness action in the south-eastern and southern Baltic Sea.Photo: Joel Thurngren/Swedish Armed Forces
These are times of unrest, global security is going through rapid changes and we are witnessing a deteriorated security situation in the vicinity of Sweden.
"There is currently extensive military activity in the Baltic Sea, conducted by Russian as well as Western players, on a scale the likes of which have not been seen since the Cold War", says Jan Thörnqvist, the Swedish Armed Forces’ Commander of Joint Operations.
To a large extent, the exercise activities are more complex and have arisen more rapidly than before. In addition, the coronavirus pandemic has caused global anxiety and uncertainty. Over all, the situation is more unstable and more difficult to predict. Current developments in Belarus are a reminder.
The focus of the high readiness action is to reinforce naval surveillance in the Baltic Sea, at sea and from the air. The military presence in Gotland is also increased.
"The Armed Forces maintains constant preparedness, around the clock, year-round. Continual assessments are made and activities are adapted to the current situation. Some operations are carried out openly and some are not", says Jan Thörnqvist.
The Swedish Armed Forces’ assessment is that the risk of a military attack on Sweden is currently low. However, the unpredictable security situation in our neighbouring region places high demands on accessibility and preparedness. The Armed Forces follows, adapts and chooses methods in order to face the situation in the surrounding world.

https://www.forsvarsmakten.se/en/news/2020/08/high-readiness-action-in-the-baltic-sea-and-in-gotland/

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The belarus military will presumably allow Russian forces access to the country if so instructed. But I think Russia's priority will be providing 'security' to Lukashenko, Maduro style: you will not be leaving the country even if you feel like it.

Edited by Josh
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Belarus: Thousands turn out for protests despite police threat to open fire

18 hours ago

 

For the 10th straight weekend, anti-Lukashenko protesters marched through Minsk despite threats from police to fire live ammunition. Police reportedly fired rubber bullets into the air to disperse demonstrators.

For the 10th weekend rally in a row, tens of thousands of protesters opposing long-time President Alexander Lukashenko marched through the capital  despite threats of force from authorities to open fire.

Protesters were heard chanting "Strike!" and "You and your riot police get out!"

Crowds of demonstrators waved red-and-white opposition flags, marching through Minsk amid a heavy security presence. 

"There's no way back," protester Anzhela Krasovskaya told French news agency AFP. "If they start shooting then there would be even more people in the streets," she added.

Over 200 protesters were arrested during Sunday's protests, Belarusian Interior Ministry spokeswoman Olga Chemodanova told AFP, adding that most of the detentions were in Minsk.

[...] 

https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-thousands-turn-out-for-protests-despite-police-threat-to-open-fire/a-55318148

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Belarus protests: National opposition strike gains momentum

Published 8 minutes ago

Groups of workers and students in Belarus have heeded a nationwide strike call by exiled opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, to press for the president's resignation.

Workers at some state-run plants downed tools and chanted slogans outside the gates.

Hundreds of students also marched out of several universities in Minsk clapping, chanting and linking arms.

However, the government says key enterprises are still running smoothly.

President Alexander Lukashenko ignored the opposition's midnight deadline for him to step down.

The interior ministry says police arrested 523 people during mass anti-government demonstrations on Sunday, 352 of whom are still in custody.

On Monday, at least 155 people were arrested for supporting the strike action in Minsk, Barysaw, Brest, Hrodno, Mogilev and Novopolotsk, Human rights group Vesna reports.

The full scale of the protests on Monday is not yet clear, partly because of the authorities' media restrictions.

Protests have swept the country since Mr Lukashenko claimed victory in an August poll widely viewed as rigged.

Videos posted to independent media site Tut.by show empty factories and students walking out of their universities.

Earlier, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched for the 11th successive Sunday of protests. Demonstrators gathered in the streets of Minsk and other cities across Belarus, many waving the opposition's red and white flags and chanting "strike" as they marched.

Local media estimated that about 100,000 people had joined the demonstration in the capital.

According to Russian news agencies, citing their correspondents at the scene, at least 10 stun grenades went off. There were also reports that riot police had fired rubber bullets.

[...]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54684753

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22 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Reminds me of something Lech Walesa once said, 'you can take this country over, but you will never get it working again'...

Good luck to them.

So what? By this kind of activity, they are ruining own country. The basis of Belarus economy was maintaining what was left from mighty Soviet Belarus industry (and, credit where it is due, Lukashenko despite of all his strange ideas was very prudent in keeping this industry alive, promoting trade benefits with Russia on expense of Russian producers while providing war materials and vehicles for pro-Ukrainians at the same time etc.) Now, I think, KAMAZ leadership is opening dozen of Champaign bottles every day MAZ is on strike – the same with other Russian competitors of Belorussian producers.

As soon as you quote Lech Wałęsa, electrician from Gdańsk Shipyard, let’s see how his former workplace it is going: “Once a place of work for over 20,000 people, the Gdańsk shipyards provide only 2,200 jobs today”. It will be the fate of Belarus industry (or even worse – as Poland enjoyed huge investments from EU over decades, something Belarus will not get)  

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Yes. But its their country. That is the point that you just cannot seem to take on board.

There is a reason why the Poles build fewer ships, just as there was a reason why their shipbuilding boomed. It was the cold war. In an era when everyone can buy dirt cheap from South Korea or China, the requirement isnt there.  Whats your solution, restart the cold war and restart Polish shipbuilding?

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Unfortunately archive of earlier Belarus thread seems to be lost, but I hope participants still remember all the hype around arrest of “Russian agents” (and Lukashenko statements about it). A lot was said about Putin’s hand in Belorussia etc. But now it turned out to be side effect of joint Ukrainian, US and Turkey operation – at least according to documents published by one of the leading pro-Ukrainain activists. As for me, quite explanation of why any reasonable passenger carrier avoid Ukrainian airspace, and also demonstration of how US, Turkish and Ukrainian special services operate.

 https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/4683574311682828

120574886_4683404961699763_4294274790692

Below is Yandex-translation to English

A document of the criminal case on the organization of the capture of 28 Russian terrorists on board a Turkish plane appeared on the Internet, according to the stamp, prepared by the 5th Department of the SBU counterintelligence Department. My sources say this is reliable information.

This was a joint operation of the Gur MO, the SBU, as well as the US and Turkish special services.

Employees of the Gur MO bought tickets for the terrorists and knew what the seating would be.

The Turkish intelligence service has provided a plane with an increased capacity and additional protection for the cockpit to Minsk. In exchange for Turkey's help, the Ukrainian special services assisted in the capture of Kurd Isa Ozera by the Turks in Odessa, who was put on the wanted list in Turkey (on September 11, the Turks showed Ozera in Istanbul - he was taken out of Ukraine without a court decision, although he received a legal residence permit. This in itself is illegal, and requires an investigation into who made this decision and why.)

One of the pilots and a senior steward on board were trained for such emergencies.

There were four Ukrainian special services officers trained for hand-to-hand combat, who controlled the passenger cabin from both entrances. And there were volunteer assistants in the cabin, not marked on the SBU scheme.

Overall coordination, management and financing of the operation was carried out jointly with the US intelligence services.

As soon as a legal reason was created - one of the passengers became ill, the crew of the aircraft would request a landing from the dispatcher of "ukraerorukh", and immediately receive an order to sit down. Participants in the fight on Board, as well as all other suspicious persons, would have been detained upon landing by the Ukrainian special services, which fully controlled the situation in the cabin.

The terrorists had no chance to capture the plane. They were unarmed, and they couldn't have made it through the narrow passageway to the cockpit. And even if they did, the crew would be protected from hacking the cabin.

The document is dated July 30. The same plan was prepared for the flight on July 25, which the terrorists were supposed to take out initially. They entered Belarus on July 25, each of them had a ticket in their hands, but they were not allowed to fly out. But at a meeting in the Cabinet of President Vladimir Zelensky 24 July, where the chief of the DIU Basil Burba and first Deputy Chairman of SBU Ruslan Baranetsky reported on the operation, Zelenski and head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak decided to postpone departure. A group of terrorists was placed in Minsk to wait for a new flight. The flight was rescheduled for July 30. However, after the betrayal and transfer of data about the special operation to Belarus by one of the participants of the meeting in the presidential office, the terrorists were detained in Minsk.

Thus, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, head of the presidential Office Andrey Yermak, head of the intelligence Committee Ruslan Demchenko, disrupted a well-prepared and well-thought-out special operation that Ukraine conducted jointly with the special services of NATO countries.

As soon as Burba raised the issue of finding the source of the information leak on August 3 and invited the meeting participants to pass a polygraph test, Burba was dismissed by presidential decree on August 5.

Servants of the people block the creation of a Temporary Commission of inquiry. Law enforcement agencies, instead of opening a case about the failure of the special operation, opened a case about the leak of information about the special operation. Apparently, the OP expects that the case will be forgotten, that people will lose interest in it, and simply delay the consideration.

I was summoned for questioning and told about the sources of information. But the state Bureau of investigation has not yet carried out the interrogation of the former head of the Gur MO Burba-two months after his dismissal. There is no investigation of information leaks among the participants of the meeting in Zelensky's office. Traitors continue to operate in the leadership of the state, and the people of Ukraine were deprived of the opportunity to learn the truth about this case.

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52 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes. But its their country. That is the point that you just cannot seem to take on board.

There is a reason why the Poles build fewer ships, just as there was a reason why their shipbuilding boomed. It was the cold war. In an era when everyone can buy dirt cheap from South Korea or China, the requirement isnt there.  Whats your solution, restart the cold war and restart Polish shipbuilding?

Yes this is their foot to shoot, and seems like majority of Belorussians understand it well – that is why calls to massive strikes are not resulting in real actions, at least by now: people may not like Lukashenko, but they got families to make living for, and example of Ukraine transformation into failed state is quite in front of their eyes. By the way in theory Belorussia and Russia are parts of one Union State, and it is not just empty papers – for example my direct supervisor is Belorussian citizen.

Re Polish shipbuilding industry, let’s see how Russian one is performing: In terms of order intake in the third quarter of this year, Korea is ranked first with 1.42 million CGTs, which amounts to 45 percent of the total global shipbuilding orders of 3.19 million CGTs during the period. Russia came in second with 860,000 CGTs (27 percent), followed by China with 830,000 CGTs (26 percent).  )(source http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=52778 )

Quite a result, even taking into consideration it is temporary coincidence of global crisis and CoVid-19 pandemia – as most of Soviet shipbuilding industry was lost in what is now Ukraine, Baltic countries and Eastern Europe. Russia is making huge (and expensive) efforts to build new plants from nothing.

 

 

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What has the Russian shipbuilding industry to do with the polish one? Go take your glorious 5 year plan disinformatsiya elsewhere, I'm not your Walter Duranty.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-hints-it-could-send-troops-to-belarus-to-counter-nato-forces-0w3gpf7h5

Russia has hinted that it could deploy troops to Belarus to counter what it said was a build-up of Nato forces on its ally’s western borders, amid an alleged plot by western states to topple President Lukashenko.

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said the situation on Belarus’s borders with Poland and Lithuania, both Nato member states, was “turbulent” and that Nato “continues to build up its forward presence”

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1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

What has the Russian shipbuilding industry to do with the polish one? 

 

Russia is also post-Soviet country with more or less the same legacy, ethnically similar population and similar economic model to start from. Actually Poland was in far more favorable starting position then Russia (no civil war and ethnic conflicts, no extreme climate regions, massive inflow of free money etc) . So as for me troubles of Polish shipbuilders were created not by “ dirt cheap from South Korea or China”. By the way average qualified industrial worker price in China is already higher than in Russia, and according to this map of Net Average Monthly Salary in Europe ( € ) Russia is not so cheap compared to Poland, if at all.

e3970c28b268b9fd360f.jpeg

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13 hours ago, Roman Alymov said:

Russia is also post-Soviet country with more or less the same legacy, ethnically similar population and similar economic model to start from. Actually Poland was in far more favorable starting position then Russia (no civil war and ethnic conflicts, no extreme climate regions, massive inflow of free money etc) . So as for me troubles of Polish shipbuilders were created not by “ dirt cheap from South Korea or China”. By the way average qualified industrial worker price in China is already higher than in Russia, and according to this map of Net Average Monthly Salary in Europe ( € ) Russia is not so cheap compared to Poland, if at all.

e3970c28b268b9fd360f.jpeg

"...By the way average qualified industrial worker price in China is already higher than in Russia."

I would never had guessed that wage difference. Interesting map, thank you Roman.

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