Iran Fun And Games

[BansheeOne]

Well from what is known this plot was started in the middle of last year, the FBI first approached Alinejad eight months ago, moved her to a series of safe houses earlier this year, and she's still under protection. So this has transcended administrations, which may mean that the thought didn't figure.

If it did, as in "let's follow through if Biden wins", the real motivation can likely once more be found in the power struggle ahead of the presidential elections in Iran last month; remember that when the interview with their foreign minister Zarif in which he talked about the political dominance of the Revolutionary Guards was leaked to the West this April, the complaint by then-president Ruhani was that hardliners were trying to sabotage the nuclear talks which resumed under Biden. The kidnapping of a dissident from American soil would have been a pretty serious spoiler for a rapprochement the Revolutionary Guards don't want, per Zarif. So maybe it was a contingency plan in case Biden wins and goes for a new nuclear deal as announced. 

Then again, the reports point out that Iran has been kidnapping dissidents via third countries since at least 2019, including one living in the US. So maybe they just didn't care either way. 

[rmgill]

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Read my post several posts up. The last time the did this was an attempt to murder the wife of the captain of the USS Vincennes. Do you think they did it because they thought Reagan was a pussy? Considering how many of their warships were sunk in his watch m guessing not.

With Reagan they were fucking around and finding out. With Reagan it was also early in the Revolutionary Government's existence. Now they're trying out a new President. See, with US policy, there are weather changes every 4 to 8 years. They're seeing what they can try and get away with now that the Democrats are in charge. 
 

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Yes I think Biden is a pussy too, but you are starting with the result you want to find

Not really. Because we already KNOW what the Biden policies are. They're a re-hash of the Obama era policies. You can tell because many of the same folks are back in the administration. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

 The Iranians have never been scared of the Us, but they are of internal dissent.

 

Which is it? They're not scared and it doesn't matter what the US Government does or it doe smatter always because of what Trump says and who he says nice things about?

You think Iran's calculous when dealing with the US was changed when Trump had General Qassem Soleimani potted with a Hellfire? I bet you they averred from going around brazenly. I'll bet you that if we had a more hawksish US President/Administration  they'd not try capturing a bunch of US sailors. 

 

[Stuart Galbraith]

9 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Well from what is known this plot was started in the middle of last year, the FBI first approached Alinejad eight months ago, moved her to a series of safe houses earlier this year, and she's still under protection. So this has transcended administrations, which may mean that the thought didn't figure.

If it did, as in "let's follow through if Biden wins", the real motivation can likely once more be found in the power struggle ahead of the presidential elections in Iran last month; remember that when the interview with their foreign minister Zarif in which he talked about the political dominance of the Revolutionary Guards was leaked to the West this April, the complaint by then-president Ruhani was that hardliners were trying to sabotage the nuclear talks which resumed under Biden. The kidnapping of a dissident from American soil would have been a pretty serious spoiler for a rapprochement the Revolutionary Guards don't want, per Zarif. So maybe it was a contingency plan in case Biden wins and goes for a new nuclear deal as announced. 

Then again, the reports point out that Iran has been kidnapping dissidents via third countries since at least 2019, including one living in the US. So maybe they just didn't care either way. 

Which fits very neatly in timing with this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–2020_Iranian_protests

Ive noticed before, authoritarian regimes are lousy at accepting their own faults, and hence problems must be imported from outside. We see this with Russia all the time, no Russian could possibly be angry at Vladimir Putin getting into office for the millionth time, so it must be Hillary Clinton's fault. Alisa Vox even did a really natty propaganda film warning against young Russians falling under the influence of foreign propagandists. They really believe this kind of stuff.

 

 

I dont reckon much to Biden foreign policy either Ryan, but it clearly isnt him that is causing this problem.

[Strannik]

Will see if this pans out... could be reaaally interesting then:  

 

 

[urbanoid]

Some D-congressmen have called to evacute all defensive weapons form KSA and UAE, dunno if it was proceeded further. 

[Strannik]

Imagine that: SA and Iran make up -> peace in Yemen -> regional stability 

bonus: switch SA oil trade (at least exclusively) away from $ 😁

Edited October 10, 2022 by Strannik

[urbanoid]

Theoretically possible, do you believe that though? KSA is far too dependent on US arms which will turn to junk in case of no producer support and all of the Gulf monarchies are scared shitless of Iranian 'revolutionary' approach of the last 40+ years.

[rmgill]

4 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Imagine that: SA and Iran make up -> peace in Yemen -> regional stability 

Sunni and Shia make up? Really? Between Saudi Arabia and Iran? When it happens sure. Before them I won't hold my breath. 

[Strannik]

12 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Sunni and Shia make up? Really? Between Saudi Arabia and Iran? When it happens sure. Before them I won't hold my breath. 

It's no longer about the faith for the elites, just power and $.  Just look at Israel/Arab XYZ under Trump.

Yes, but the "unbelievable" does happen when nobody expects is: end of apartheid in SA, USSR dissolution, RU/UA war...  Sometimes it takes an individual(s), other times - some events that change the equation enough...

13 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Theoretically possible, do you believe that though? KSA is far too dependent on US arms which will turn to junk in case of no producer support and all of the Gulf monarchies are scared shitless of Iranian 'revolutionary' approach of the last 40+ years.

The weapons are only necessary if there is a threat.  Besides look at Iran being able to support F-14 (meaning Iran can help, not that SA can do it :)  And Russia and China probably will offer the treaty... 

Gulfies are pretty irrelevant power-wise vs Iran w/o SA.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Strannik

[urbanoid]

2 minutes ago, Strannik said:

It's no longer about the faith for the elites, just power and $.  Just look at Israel/Arab XYZ under Trump.

Yes, but the "unbelievable" does happen when nobody expects is: end of apartheid in SA, USSR dissolution, RU/UA war...  Sometimes it takes an individual(s), other times - some events that change the equation enough...

The weapons are only necessary if there is a threat.  Besides look at Iran being able to support F-14.

Gulfies are pretty irrelevant power-wise vs Iran w/o USA.

Fixed one letter and it makes a lot more sense. 

Yes, weapons are only necessary when there is a threat. If you were in the Gulfies' place, would you either trust in your security on Iranian word or in your ability to repel Iran without US support if shit hits the fan? IMHO the answer is no to both and I doubt there's any 'higher' idea in the Gulfy royal minds apart from their own survival, power and prosperity. Unlike in Iran, unfortunately.

[rmgill]

13 minutes ago, Strannik said:

It's no longer about the faith for the elites, just power and $.  Just look at Israel/Arab XYZ under Trump.

I think the issues are deeper than $ for at least Iran. 

13 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Yes, but the "unbelievable" does happen when nobody expects is: end of apartheid in SA, USSR dissolution, RU/UA war...  Sometimes it takes an individual(s), other times - some events that change the equation enough...

Until Iran becomes conciliatory....I think that ball is in their court and has been for some time. 

 

[Strannik]

23 minutes ago, urbanoid said:

Fixed one letter and it makes a lot more sense:  Gulfies are pretty irrelevant power-wise vs Iran w/o USA.

More like:  "Pasmanteria i kardynał to siła!" - do you know where it's from? 😁

I said "if they make up". 

A huge "IF", but we saw some attempts in the past to de-escalate.

The benefits to both  can be huge too - SA gets out from under US thumb and can ka-ching to no end and don't have to spend it all on weapons.  Iran can concentrate on better things as well...

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Strannik

[Strannik]

15 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Until Iran becomes conciliatory....I think that ball is in their court and has been for some time. 
 

Obviously your unbiased opinion 😅

[rmgill]

6 minutes ago, Strannik said:

Obviously your unbiased opinion 😅

Biased how? Looking at 43 years of a pattern of behavior is not a bias on my part. I'm not pre-judging their actions, I'm not partial to Iran continuing to be run by a coterie of Shia Islamic fundamentalists thugs who have their entire country under the thumbs of their religious police. I would like Iran to be NOT like it is. I just don't expect the Ayatollah, or his Guardian Council, or the President or the Expediency Council or the Assembly of Experts to change the clear direction/alignment of the country where it concerns Shia Islam and it's core tenants over night. 

I have friends who call Iran their birthplace or ancestral home. I am sure they'd love to go back. But on looking at history, the writings of folks who've been there (Christopher Hitchens) and people who come from there...I think you're woefully optimistic. 

I'd love to be wrong. But if you'd like to put $100 down on Iran making nice with Saudi Arabia over the next 2 years, I'd love a $100 in 2 years. 

[urbanoid]

10 minutes ago, Strannik said:

More like:  "Pasmanteria i kardynał to siła!" - do you know where it's from? 😁

I said "if they make up". 

A huge "IF", but we saw some attempts in the past to de-escalate.

The benefits to both  can be huge too - SA gets out from under US thumb and can ka-ching to no end and don't have to spend it all on weapons.  Iran can concentrate on better things as well...

 

Like I said, theoretically possible, though I'd have to see it to believe. Gulfies seem uncapable of... pretty much anything without Western assistance. So yes, very huge "iF" indeed.

[Strannik]

2 minutes ago, rmgill said:

Biased how? 

This is how:

Quote

Until Iran becomes conciliatory....I think that ball is in their court and has been for some time. 

 

[rmgill]

3 minutes ago, Strannik said:

This is how:

 

How am I biased? I'm not pre-judging them. I'm judging them on their actions. Is it unfair to judge their nation on their past actions? What's unreasonable about my view of their behavior and past actions? 

[Strannik]

10 minutes ago, rmgill said:

How am I biased? I'm not pre-judging them. I'm judging them on their actions. Is it unfair to judge their nation on their past actions? What's unreasonable about my view of their behavior and past actions? 

What their current actions in your view are escalatory and not reactive? 

I don't want to hijack this thread - let's move to Iran topic.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Strannik

[Strannik]

 

 

[rmgill]

2 hours ago, Strannik said:

What their current actions in your view are escalatory and not reactive? 

They're certainly not de-escalatory nor are they conciliatory towards the Sunni OR western world. 

2 hours ago, Strannik said:

I don't want to hijack this thread - let's move to Iran topic.

If the US bails from supporting Saudi Arabia AND Iran becomes more aggressive, it'll be entirely topical because energy costs will skyrocket due to yet another Gulf War. Iran will see their chance. They've already subverted Iraq. They essentially won their decades long war with Iraq by moving into the power vacuum we created. 

[Strannik]

20 minutes ago, rmgill said:

They're certainly not de-escalatory nor are they conciliatory towards the Sunni OR western world. 

 

Typical western generic BS narrative regurgitated by you.

Facts:

- Iran  signed and was fulfilling JCPOA

- USA broke the deal

- EU could have salvaged it, but chickened out being afraid of US

Verdict: "western world" escalated and broke agreements.  Iran is reactive in it's actions.

 

Quote

They've already subverted Iraq. They essentially won their decades long war with Iraq by moving into the power vacuum we created. 

Iraqi democratic government chose to have a friendly relationship with Iran.  This is regular inter-state relationship with all the nuances and peculiarities, no more "subverted" than US-EU relationship, hence NORMAL.  Deal with it.  Or you are upset they didn't properly thank US for "creating a power vacuum"? 

 

See, you don't have any original arguments, all your theses are one-sided regurgitated propaganda.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Strannik

[Daan]

The JCPOA was a folly committed by an administration hunting for legacy in the international arena, which, at best, would have resulted in a temporary delay to Iran's nuclear program, all the while ignoring the country's ongoing work on delivery vehicles. The resulting release of funds and lifting of sanctions provided an immense boost to Iran's imperialism throughout the Middle East, which in turn ironically contributed to the Abrahams accords and subsequent improvement of Israeli ties with other conservative Arab governments in the region in order to form a common front. Netanyahu's presentation on Iran's recent historical obfuscation on its nuclear weapons program provided the ammunition the Trump administration needed to cancel the deal. Iran's rapid subsequent uranium enrichment to 60% illustrated the shallowness of the JCPOA and amply showed that Iran is striving to obtain nuclear weapons, as stated by the IAEA. Given the power relations in the region and Iran's irrepressible missionary zealotry, this ambition makes of course perfect sense. 

The hope is that the current demonstrations irreparably weaken or topple the theocracy, but similar uprisings in the past have always been suppressed successfully by the regime after a while.  

[TrustMe]

14 hours ago, Strannik said:

Imagine that: SA and Iran make up -> peace in Yemen -> regional stability 

bonus: switch SA oil trade (at least exclusively) away from $ 😁

Iraq just before 2003 decided to take oil payment in Euro's. Guess what happened next 😀

[TrustMe]

14 hours ago, urbanoid said:

Theoretically possible, do you believe that though? KSA is far too dependent on US arms which will turn to junk in case of no producer support and all of the Gulf monarchies are scared shitless of Iranian 'revolutionary' approach of the last 40+ years.

Saudi Arabia's defence procurement follows a two supplier strategy. Sure the US made weapons wil start to fail without spare parts but the European side will stay strong.

Also Iran still fought a 8 year long war without a lot of US support. im sure SA can do too.

Edited October 11, 2022 by TrustMe

[Daan]

34 minutes ago, TrustMe said:

Iraq just before 2003 decided to take oil payment in Euro's. Guess what happened next 😀

Do tell us! Is it perhaps that after the invasion the oil sector was ignored for several years and that finally at the end of the decade almost all Iraqi oil contracts were awarded to non-American oil companies?

Edited October 11, 2022 by Daan