futon Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, Cajer said: It's difficult for me to imagine any China/Taiwan/US conflict that doesn't involve Japan and more than likely North/South Korea. So that doesn't really feel like an escalation to me and seems likely to have already been accounted for in Chinese war plans. The issue with this assumption is that the US is not going to strike first. Meaning that the USAF will be operating at degraded capacity from the beginning and may lose a substantial number of aircraft in the first strike against allied bases. It would be interesting if there was a wargaming thread on a Taiwanese invasion sort of like how there is one for a war over the Spratly Islands. Too bad Japan doesn't have a modern Kido Butai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If Chinese forces are emplacing missile systems on the East coast of Taiwan, it's been overrun anyway, unless you think it's credible for China to manage to sail all around the island undetected and un-countered. If China pre-emptively decided to strike Japan whilst launching an attack on Taiwan, it seems an unnecessary escalation when there is no certainty that Japan would get involved at all, unless provoked. If, as has been insisted upon here on several occasions in the past, Taiwan was to offer no more than disorganised token resistance as the government rushed to surrender, then external involvement would be worse than pointless - it would be actively damaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On that note, though - given that nice, gentle handling of Hong Kong in recent years by the benevolent bigger brother, how do freedom-loving Taiwanese think they would fare if they were reunited, and does that matter at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 (edited) I agree the local bases inside the first and probably even second island chains will be hammered. But the US is building out its strategic depth to unused/barely used airfields in the second chain and places as far away as Wake. Hawaii is also probably within range of the Chines coast by unrefueled B-52s (particularly with newer long ranged versions of AGM-158), and strikes could be mounted from there with minimal tanker assets. The sortie rate would suck, but every half dozen bombers is a ~120 missile strike. The US is also looking to have additional fuel and its munitions hosted by Australia, which would greatly expand its fall back options if/when the first and second chain bases are neutralized. Also an Ohio SSGN would by itself be capable of creating a Pearl Harbor-esque moment against at least a port or two. This would all assume that the PRC goes all in and that pretty much any Japanese or 7th fleet ship in port is destroyed in the first hour. Were the Chinese to hold back, it seems extremely likely that the US would as well. An argument could be made that it would be beneficial for the Chinese to keep any fight over Taiwan largely tactical (in the near term). It would have the back yard advantage compared to the distant US bases, and as soon as engaging airfields and ports is on the table, the US has a much more diverse and valuable set of targets it to choose from along with a greater ability to persistently engage them over an extended strategic campaign. Edited February 1, 2022 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Is anything know about the current PLAN ASW capabilities? They have used some unconventional methods to access to USN capabilities, like cutting hydrophone lines or capturing submarine drones some years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 (edited) I'm not aware of documented attempts to cut hydrophone lines, though I am aware of an incident with a TAGOS where they appeared to try to capture the towed array. The drones that have been captured to date I think were small glider types generally used for bathometric data. PLAN ASW is generally rated very low in open source. Their newest ships seem to have capable sonars (Type 52/54/55/56). In terms of airborne assets, they recently started fielding an ASW variant of the Z-20 helo and the Y-8 transport. It is hard to quantify their true effectiveness, but the relative youth of their modern ASW platforms (and dearth of the newest airborne platforms) would tend to suggest they don't have a lot of institutional experience. On top of that, their primary opponents are some of the quietest platforms in the world with many decades of experience, which has to make for an incredibly steep learning curve. I kinda wonder if they even know what a Virginia class boat sounds like. Edited February 1, 2022 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 17 hours ago, DB said: If China pre-emptively decided to strike Japan whilst launching an attack on Taiwan, it seems an unnecessary escalation when there is no certainty that Japan would get involved at all, unless provoked. If, as has been insisted upon here on several occasions in the past, Taiwan was to offer no more than disorganised token resistance as the government rushed to surrender, then external involvement would be worse than pointless - it would be actively damaging. In the past couple of years, Japanese politicians and government/defense papers have become more vocal about Taiwan. There is going to be a very strong desire in Japan to keep Taiwan safe from PRC military conquest. But Japan needs to to do that with international support because Japan has to be realistic, China is now the bigger and more powerful country. So part of keeping that international support I reckon is to not make other international supporters, especially those in arms (particularly the US, and more particularly the US population, not just the Pentagon, etc.) not feel they are unfairly getting sucked into a military conflict. So Japan can't urge too hard otherwise I suspect it'll backfire in the form of less international support so needs to be prudent and cool headed. On the other side, the US side probably won't want to feel like they are doing everything so Japan would have to have some capabilities to contribute. Although there is another view of Japan wanted to shoulder more of a role because it is its neighborhood but the US has another side of things to maintain its top position. As the PRC becomes stronger and stronger, the US and Japan will have to split the burden of deterrence for Taiwan that satisfy the interests of Japan and the US as well. Although the US itself has taken many measures own its own initiative so Japan hasn't had to hope too terribly much for the US in providing deterrence for Taiwan. US credibility in deterrence is viewed as weakened by Iraq and more recently Afghanistan however the DPRK matter in 2017 I think does count as a point of demonstrator sufficient deterrence for that time. It feels almost like yesterday but its been 5 years now that DPRK has decided to revisit high tensions with long range BM launches. If the Russia and Ukraine matter does not blow up, then I think US deterrence gets another point. Probably safe to assume had the US not backed the Ukraine, the Russian Army would be in Kiev already. At any rate, because the cost to Japan in entering a new world where Taiwan is a PRC island, Japan will very much want Taiwan to be safe from PRC military regardless of Taiwan's competence in defending itself. Taiwan's own ability to defend itself may very well depend on how much they feel they can count on international support coming to its aid because obviously they can't defend themselves on their own as the power gap between Taiwan and the PRC is fair too great now. If they can feel confident that the US and/or Japan are coming, then the Taiwanese may feel it more worthwhile to do as much damage as they can in the opening stage of engagements. On top of that is another factor that Taiwan and Japan have good relations and sentiment towards each other is high in both sides. There is shame to be had if Japan did not come to the aid of Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 hours ago, Josh said: I'm not aware of documented attempts to cut hydrophone lines, though I am aware of an incident with a TAGOS where they appeared to try to capture the towed array. The drones that have been captured to date I think were small glider types generally used for bathometric data. PLAN ASW is generally rated very low in open source. Their newest ships seem to have capable sonars (Type 52/54/55/56). In terms of airborne assets, they recently started fielding an ASW variant of the Z-20 helo and the Y-8 transport. It is hard to quantify their true effectiveness, but the relative youth of their modern ASW platforms (and dearth of the newest airborne platforms) would tend to suggest they don't have a lot of institutional experience. On top of that, their primary opponents are some of the quietest platforms in the world with many decades of experience, which has to make for an incredibly steep learning curve. I kinda wonder if they even know what a Virginia class boat sounds like. Thank you, I meant this incident. Sorry I was not clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajer Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 10:38 AM, Josh said: I agree the local bases inside the first and probably even second island chains will be hammered. But the US is building out its strategic depth to unused/barely used airfields in the second chain and places as far away as Wake. Hawaii is also probably within range of the Chines coast by unrefueled B-52s (particularly with newer long ranged versions of AGM-158), and strikes could be mounted from there with minimal tanker assets. The sortie rate would suck, but every half dozen bombers is a ~120 missile strike. The US is also looking to have additional fuel and its munitions hosted by Australia, which would greatly expand its fall back options if/when the first and second chain bases are neutralized. Also an Ohio SSGN would by itself be capable of creating a Pearl Harbor-esque moment against at least a port or two. This would all assume that the PRC goes all in and that pretty much any Japanese or 7th fleet ship in port is destroyed in the first hour. Were the Chinese to hold back, it seems extremely likely that the US would as well. An argument could be made that it would be beneficial for the Chinese to keep any fight over Taiwan largely tactical (in the near term). It would have the back yard advantage compared to the distant US bases, and as soon as engaging airfields and ports is on the table, the US has a much more diverse and valuable set of targets it to choose from along with a greater ability to persistently engage them over an extended strategic campaign. There is definitely a counterstrike option available by launching from Aus/Hawaii/Wake as you mentioned. However those are likely too late to prevent the Chinese from landing a sizable force on Taiwan. At that point will the US commit to a ground conflict with China in Taiwan? It's implausible that the US would strike first in such a conflict. So the Chinese ships would already all be at sea, vastly reducing the effectiveness of a port strike. However I could see it striking at IADS/air fields. In the unlikely scenario that Japan/the Koreas don't join in. I don't see a scenario where China and the US are at war but the US isn't basing out of Japan for naval or air assets. These Japanese bases/assets deployed there are what is needed to prevent the Chinese from landing on Taiwan in the first few days. So the question becomes, will China strike at US bases in Japan to greatly ease the initial invasion of Taiwan? When it's already extremely likely that Japan would join at onset or eventually even without a Japanese strike. I'm going to say yes, as the objective of the whole war is to take Taiwan and it will be much easier to do so when there are no nearby airfields for US aircraft to base out of and reduced in theatre allied aircraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) Even if just rhetorical, a weak point for an argument that concludes PRC ability to carry out a successful invasion is, if so, then the question is what are they waiting. One other point is that PRC mobilization should be detectable before imminent invasion attempt. A massuve amount of PLA ground soldiers and equipment would need to assemble just along the strait. And all the amphibious warships would also need to assemble on the PRC side of the strait which includes the big ones such as the 8 Type 71s and the 3 Type 75s. So unless such an assembly can be carried out stealthyly, there will be a heads up for US and Japan to go on high alert. So USN and JMSDF ships can leave harbor in time. DPRK adds another layer to things but factoring in ROK more or less cancels out DPRK. One other possible extension in activity is the SCS. If the PLAN is commiting everything for the Taiwan campaign, Vietnam and perhaps the Philippines (particularly if backed by the US such as air support) may use that as an opportunity to make some strikes on PRC features in either or both the Spratly Island group and the Paracel island group. Edited February 4, 2022 by futon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajer Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) I agree that it's no where near certain that the PRC can carry out a successful invasion. However it seems somewhat clear as to why the Chinese are waiting. They see the US as a wanning power and themselves as a rising power so are playing the waiting game or are waiting for additional development of their internal markets and economy to lessen the inventible blow to trade that will come with either a victory or defeat. I could easily see a long proacted war where the PRC easily controls the Taiwan Strait but has issues projecting too far beyond the 1st island chain and it becomes a game sea control in the Pacific. I also agree that there is no way strategic surprise can be achieved by the Chinese especially as many of their war plans seem to also involve the drafting of civilian vessels. In this case I am less worried about a Pearl Harbor type attack on ports as the ships will be sea. I am more worried about attacks on air fields, aircraft, and air/naval munition stores as knowing an attack/war may occur is very different from knowing when it will occur and stopping it. As mentioned before if such an attack is even moderately successful the issue of VLS magazine size and an inability of at sea replenishment becomes a large issue if stores in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are are damaged or destroyed. Meaning they will likely have to sail all the way to Aus/Wake/Hawaii to replenish after a single large attack, potentially leaving windows of reduced naval presence for the Chinese to make a move on Taiwan. I don't agree that the DPRK will be canceled out by the ROK. As current ROK military planning assumes the presence of American air support to defend against the DPRK, necessitating the commitment of significant allied air assets to the Koreans away from the Taiwanese. I have big doubts the Vietnamese will try anything. The bulk of the PLA army won't be doing much in this war making Vietnam will think twice about a land war with China, and it is highly unlikely the US will support the Vietnamese with land forces. It's more plausible for the Philippines to be aggressive but they will have to be assured of crushing American victory over China, as they will have to live next to a very angry China in the case of a white peace if they directly support the allies. It is also unlikely that the SCS will be unwatched by the PLAN as that's an important approach to Taiwan and may have a significant Chinese presence. The Philippines totally lack the equipment to operate independently. A single single Chinese frigate in the area would be enough to rebuff their move on the islands in question. Edited February 4, 2022 by Cajer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajer Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Looks like it's going to be "decades" before we get DDG(x). Looks like Burkes forever.... They really should just build a modified Zumwalt https://news.usni.org/2022/02/02/navy-wants-to-buy-two-arleigh-burkes-a-year-while-developing-ddgx-concept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucklucky Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 For what? it is dead end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Cajer said: I agree that it's no where near certain that the PRC can carry out a successful invasion. However it seems somewhat clear as to why the Chinese are waiting. They see the US as a wanning power and themselves as a rising power so are playing the waiting game or are waiting for additional development of their internal markets and economy to lessen the inventible blow to trade that will come with either a victory or defeat. I could easily see a long proacted war where the PRC easily controls the Taiwan Strait but has issues projecting too far beyond the 1st island chain and it becomes a game sea control in the Pacific. I also agree that there is no way strategic surprise can be achieved by the Chinese especially as many of their war plans seem to also involve the drafting of civilian vessels. In this case I am less worried about a Pearl Harbor type attack on ports as the ships will be sea. I am more worried about attacks on air fields, aircraft, and air/naval munition stores as knowing an attack/war may occur is very different from knowing when it will occur and stopping it. As mentioned before if such an attack is even moderately successful the issue of VLS magazine size and an inability of at sea replenishment becomes a large issue if stores in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are are damaged or destroyed. Meaning they will likely have to sail all the way to Aus/Wake/Hawaii to replenish after a single large attack, potentially leaving windows of reduced naval presence for the Chinese to make a move on Taiwan. I don't agree that the DPRK will be canceled out by the ROK. As current ROK military planning assumes the presence of American air support to defend against the DPRK, necessitating the commitment of significant allied air assets to the Koreans away from the Taiwanese. I have big doubts the Vietnamese will try anything. The bulk of the PLA army won't be doing much in this war making Vietnam will think twice about a land war with China, and it is highly unlikely the US will support the Vietnamese with land forces. It's more plausible for the Philippines to be aggressive but they will have to be assured of crushing American victory over China, as they will have to live next to a very angry China in the case of a white peace if they directly support the allies. It is also unlikely that the SCS will be unwatched by the PLAN as that's an important approach to Taiwan and may have a significant Chinese presence. The Philippines totally lack the equipment to operate independently. A single single Chinese frigate in the area would be enough to rebuff their move on the islands in question. Regarding the Korean peninsula, what the reduction of US air support for ROK means is potentially greater damage that the DPRK will be able to inflict on near border areas such as Seoul. But yhe ROK air force is far superior to DPRK and should be able to establish air superiorty of DPRK and blink off any DPRK artillary units. ROK also has many cruise missiles. They could inflict serious damage to DPRK. And the DPRK won't be able to launch a ground offensive against ROK army. ROK would struggle if trying to occupy all of DPRK. But if the scenerio is about Taiwan, then the extent lf occupying DPRK won't be in hand. As far as will, I think the Philippines does not quite have it at the same level as the Vietnamese. Vietnam has made notable improvements to their held SCS features. You do have a point about a possible ground war between PRC or Vietnam. Although if the PRC does initiate a Taiwan war.. it'll be conducting that under a new form of isolation and that isolation can make it more vulnerable during the war. Even if the EU does not send arms to Taiwan's aid, I feel fairly confident that they will put fourth economic and diplomatic sanctions on China. That will essentially add to an environment where China no longer has access to Africa and its access to the ME is limited to land routes. If a Taiwan war does go long, Vietnam may test the waters and if they sense the PRC is weakening and thus less of a risk of a punishing land war, I wouldn't be surprised for them to make a move on PRC SCS assets. As for concerns about attacks on air fields, the JASDF has been scrambling fighters at an average of 3 every day for over 5 years now. Additionally aircraft parking spaces are being added to help add ti ability to disperse aircract at bases. AFAIK, air bases already started training for air field clean up and reconstruction. It'll take a lot to knock a base. In examples of cruise missile strikes on bases in Syria, several dozen were used, just for a Syria Air Force base. Or the Iran BM attack on a US base in Iraq. It wasn't particularly convincing how effective a small volley of BMs can be. I don't think just a few dozen cruise missiles or BMs can casue such damage to one of the major air bases in Japan. These bases likely larger with more necessary targets and with much more capable air defenses. Edited February 4, 2022 by futon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Perhaps a tad off topic, but for those "learned individuals" who think socialism is so much better than Capitalism, I offer North vs South Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glenn239 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 11 hours ago, Cajer said: So the question becomes, will China strike at US bases in Japan to greatly ease the initial invasion of Taiwan? I would say no, it would not. Quote However those are likely too late to prevent the Chinese from landing a sizable force on Taiwan. At that point will the US commit to a ground conflict with China in Taiwan? Taiwan is not going anywhere. The Chinese are in no rush, and they are currently engaged in what appears to be a massive modernization of their entire armed forces. At some point in the next 10 years, presumably, the PLA and PLA(N) will report to the CCP that China can conventionally defeat any US coalition outright. Any scenario involving an invasion of Taiwan would presumably take place after this point than before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajer Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 12 hours ago, futon said: Regarding the Korean peninsula, what the reduction of US air support for ROK means is potentially greater damage that the DPRK will be able to inflict on near border areas such as Seoul. But yhe ROK air force is far superior to DPRK and should be able to establish air superiorty of DPRK and blink off any DPRK artillary units. ROK also has many cruise missiles. They could inflict serious damage to DPRK. And the DPRK won't be able to launch a ground offensive against ROK army. ROK would struggle if trying to occupy all of DPRK. But if the scenerio is about Taiwan, then the extent lf occupying DPRK won't be in hand. As far as will, I think the Philippines does not quite have it at the same level as the Vietnamese. Vietnam has made notable improvements to their held SCS features. You do have a point about a possible ground war between PRC or Vietnam. Although if the PRC does initiate a Taiwan war.. it'll be conducting that under a new form of isolation and that isolation can make it more vulnerable during the war. Even if the EU does not send arms to Taiwan's aid, I feel fairly confident that they will put fourth economic and diplomatic sanctions on China. That will essentially add to an environment where China no longer has access to Africa and its access to the ME is limited to land routes. If a Taiwan war does go long, Vietnam may test the waters and if they sense the PRC is weakening and thus less of a risk of a punishing land war, I wouldn't be surprised for them to make a move on PRC SCS assets. As for concerns about attacks on air fields, the JASDF has been scrambling fighters at an average of 3 every day for over 5 years now. Additionally aircraft parking spaces are being added to help add ti ability to disperse aircract at bases. AFAIK, air bases already started training for air field clean up and reconstruction. It'll take a lot to knock a base. In examples of cruise missile strikes on bases in Syria, several dozen were used, just for a Syria Air Force base. Or the Iran BM attack on a US base in Iraq. It wasn't particularly convincing how effective a small volley of BMs can be. I don't think just a few dozen cruise missiles or BMs can casue such damage to one of the major air bases in Japan. These bases likely larger with more necessary targets and with much more capable air defenses. The DPRK has about 10,000 pieces of artillery pointed at Seoul and Incheon, it's infeasible to wipe out any significant of that before crippling damage is to the most urbanized region of the ROK. The only way to really stop it is to take those positions. No matter how you spin it, defending the ROK will take significant allied resources away from the Taiwanese front. I highly doubt the EU will do anything in this war. They couldn't even form a cohesive response against Russian aggression in Ukraine and that's right on their door step. This is half a world away and a point could be made that China has more power of much of the via trade EU than Russia does. The cut in trade will be highly crippling to everyone involved if the war goes on for any extended period of time. But it's also conceivable that people come to the table in a month or two. I'm not sure China is getting much resources out of Africa and ME currently it seems more along the line of establishing control for the future. Even if China is weaking, the PLA army won't have much if any casualties and will still be able to deal with Vietnam. As you stated, it's infeasible to knock out the runways of those bases for any extended period of time. However that does not need to be done, as aircraft/ships cannot operate without munitions and fuel. It is not to difficult is to knock out fuel and munitions storage such that any aircraft can't used effectively and VLS cells can't be rearmed. Additionally as the allies will be surging aircraft to those bases there will be many aircraft in non-hardened shelters, allowing for the use of cluster munitions to knock out large amounts of more closely packed aircraft in non-hardened shelters. See this old but still relevant paper here regarding the efficacy of cluster munitions on base strikes. A few years ago there were supposedly 2,000 cruise/ballistic missiles allocated for Taiwanese targets. If we assume 1,000 missiles for Japanese bases spread over 10 targets, I personally don't have much faith in allied air defenses stopping a significant fraction of 100 missiles especially as it will likely be a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/1999/MR1028.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futon Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Cajer said: The DPRK has about 10,000 pieces of artillery pointed at Seoul and Incheon, it's infeasible to wipe out any significant of that before crippling damage is to the most urbanized region of the ROK. The only way to really stop it is to take those positions. No matter how you spin it, defending the ROK will take significant allied resources away from the Taiwanese front. I highly doubt the EU will do anything in this war. They couldn't even form a cohesive response against Russian aggression in Ukraine and that's right on their door step. This is half a world away and a point could be made that China has more power of much of the via trade EU than Russia does. The cut in trade will be highly crippling to everyone involved if the war goes on for any extended period of time. But it's also conceivable that people come to the table in a month or two. I'm not sure China is getting much resources out of Africa and ME currently it seems more along the line of establishing control for the future. Even if China is weaking, the PLA army won't have much if any casualties and will still be able to deal with Vietnam. As you stated, it's infeasible to knock out the runways of those bases for any extended period of time. However that does not need to be done, as aircraft/ships cannot operate without munitions and fuel. It is not to difficult is to knock out fuel and munitions storage such that any aircraft can't used effectively and VLS cells can't be rearmed. Additionally as the allies will be surging aircraft to those bases there will be many aircraft in non-hardened shelters, allowing for the use of cluster munitions to knock out large amounts of more closely packed aircraft in non-hardened shelters. See this old but still relevant paper here regarding the efficacy of cluster munitions on base strikes. A few years ago there were supposedly 2,000 cruise/ballistic missiles allocated for Taiwanese targets. If we assume 1,000 missiles for Japanese bases spread over 10 targets, I personally don't have much faith in allied air defenses stopping a significant fraction of 100 missiles especially as it will likely be a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/1999/MR1028.pdf Well I think DPRK has to think very carefully about doing a mass indiscriminate arty strike on Seoul when timing things with a Taiwan campaiagn. Lots of damage to civilan neighborhoods, perhaps even Gyeongbok Palace, 10,000 or so dead South Koreans.. I think the South Korean military forces will be pissed like nothing else. We'll disagree on EU support. But of G7 collection. There's been a decent amount of political build up for Taiwan. France seems willing to extend its legs out here even. When shit hits the fan, those political positions will fall into place in favor of Taiwan safety. But again, just me, if you will. There's still the US Military Sea Lift command that will be in charge of that logistics. USAF C-17 fleet as well. There are messy sides in the US military such as R&D costs and procurement, but the US tends to do well with logistics. As for PLA rocket force, a closer look at its composition mightvbe needed. Of course they have lots of short range BMs to saturate Taiwan with 1500 or so BMs. To hit targets in Kyushu, BMs with about 1,000km range will be necessary. How many does the PLARF have. Then out of these, how many are the latest types that are difficult to intercept and which are older which have higher chance to intercept? Japan air defense will involve first line of Burke/Kongo/Atago/Maya with SM-3 and then there are PAC-3 in both US and JASDF and then JGSDF Type 3. Cruise missiles will have a particularly hard time to penetrate. Edited February 5, 2022 by futon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 9:06 PM, Cajer said: There is definitely a counterstrike option available by launching from Aus/Hawaii/Wake as you mentioned. However those are likely too late to prevent the Chinese from landing a sizable force on Taiwan. At that point will the US commit to a ground conflict with China in Taiwan? It's implausible that the US would strike first in such a conflict. So the Chinese ships would already all be at sea, vastly reducing the effectiveness of a port strike. However I could see it striking at IADS/air fields. In the unlikely scenario that Japan/the Koreas don't join in. I don't see a scenario where China and the US are at war but the US isn't basing out of Japan for naval or air assets. These Japanese bases/assets deployed there are what is needed to prevent the Chinese from landing on Taiwan in the first few days. So the question becomes, will China strike at US bases in Japan to greatly ease the initial invasion of Taiwan? When it's already extremely likely that Japan would join at onset or eventually even without a Japanese strike. I'm going to say yes, as the objective of the whole war is to take Taiwan and it will be much easier to do so when there are no nearby airfields for US aircraft to base out of and reduced in theatre allied aircraft. If US bases are attacked across the second island chain, then I'm quite sure the US will be *very* committed to the defense of Taiwan and the destruction of the PLAN regardless of the time and resources required to achieve those goals. Troops would be landed if it could be done with an acceptable amount of risk. Unless the Chinese have readiness rates far exceeding that of the USN, at least some of their ships will be in port. Moreover, some of their newest ships will be fitting out or in dry dock. Any attack that strikes US or allied ports and air bases likely will remove any hesitation the US has about striking any ship, even ones that haven't been completed yet. Shore based support and command would still be priority targets to degrade the PLAN, assuming a war of any length. The PLAN also couldn't maintain its full force at sea for very long; it has nothing like the refueling capacity. More over supplies would have to be loaded in China and unloaded in Taiwan, and for the loading/unloading period those ships would be fixed targets. The port facilities needed to offload those ships would also be early targets in the event the initial invasion attempt was successful. I don't see a Taiwan invasion scenario where the Japanese put any restrictions on the USN/USAF. I agree it seems unlikely China would refrain from bombing US bases in allied countries, but then again that would make for an extended war that likely cost China a lot more than it cost the US. Even if the invasion was successful, the PRC would likely inherit a devastated province of little economic value. I think that's why the chances of a conflict are low for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DB Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 (edited) So we have China invading Taiwan, and bombing everywhere within reach that has a US flag flying, along with the godless hordes from NK destroying Seoul. Meanwhile, I suppose, Russia annexes Byelorussia and crushes Ukraine. Why not have China invade Nepal and Russia attack Finland whilst we're at it? ETA: Perfect opportunity for Argentina and Spain to repossess a couple of the last crumbs of empire too! Edited February 8, 2022 by DB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Do not forget the Channel Islands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olof Larsson Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 3 hours ago, sunday said: Do not forget the Channel Islands! And Northern Ireland and the scots rebelling and laying siege to York. Mayby an allience with the mongol hordes would be in order. Ready at in instance to ride towards Moscow and Beijing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunday Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RETAC21 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/8/2022 at 6:49 PM, Olof Larsson said: And Northern Ireland and the scots rebelling and laying siege to York. Mayby an allience with the mongol hordes would be in order. Ready at in instance to ride towards Moscow and Beijing. And while at it, let's look for a Catholic King for England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bfng3569 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... about that frigate thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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