Covid-19 Pandemic

[JasonJ]

Medical masks are used by around 80% of train passengers here now, including me. I try to touch less than usual when riding the trains and I wash my hands upon arriving at my destination. I can't be sure if it makes a difference but better safe than sorry. The masks do little in protecting oneself but help in prevent transmitting to others. So its appreciative when others where it. So I should respond in kind. A number of companies have made it a requirement to use the mask when taking the train. School trips and other such large scale outings are being cancelled. Even the Prime Minister urged people to avoid large get togethers. The usual large number of Chinese tourists in the Namba area and elsewhere have seen a decrease. I hope the warm Spring and preventive measures kill it off.

[rmgill]

protective masks are becoming limited in availability in the automotive refinish business. Part of that is because the supplies are being purchased for medical reasons and part because the manufacturing in China is reduced

Key is going to be the P100 rated filters. Organic Vapor filters aren't protective for the fine particulates that are needed for protecting from aerosolized virus.

[rmgill]

Medical masks are used by around 80% of train passengers here now, including me. I try to touch less than usual when riding the trains and I wash my hands upon arriving at my destination. I can't be sure if it makes a difference but better safe than sorry. The masks do little in protecting oneself but help in prevent transmitting to others. So its appreciative when others where it. So I should respond in kind. A number of companies have made it a requirement to use the mask when taking the train. School trips and other such large scale outings are being cancelled. Even the Prime Minister urged people to avoid large get togethers. The usual large number of Chinese tourists in the Namba area and elsewhere have seen a decrease. I hope the warm Spring and preventive measures kill it off.

Depends on the mask. If it has a good seal over the nose/mouth area, and the filter media is rated for the particulate size.

[Nobu]

 

 

As so many supply chains originate something from China many products will be in short supply. OK, the just-in-time inventory supply system has a fatal flaw. So those that implemented it should be suffer the consequenses.

This will certainly clarify a lot of critical supply chain flaws of the globalized world in a way that no table top exercise ever would. I expect a lot of "Huh?" moments in the coming months as production issues even in areas you thought you had local production capacity for, on account of some minor but critical component being out of supply.

 

Ensuring full local manufacturing capability for many things is suddenly going to become a lot more attractive. Whether that will manage to counteract the drive to cut costs is another matter and will depend on how bad things get before the immediate crisis passes.

 

Interesting times just keep coming.

 

--

Soren

They do, and from them, lessons to be learned about public health response, science, and economics. Nothing spurs human innovation like war. This may qualify in various ways.

[Der Zeitgeist]

I don't think this Tweet will age very well...

 

[BansheeOne]

One question I've been asking myself about the Italian outbreak exploding almost out of nowhere:

 

What if the virus is basically everywhere already and just becomes visible in a particular region when someone is getting tested (because of recent travel, critical condition or whatever), and then everyone with fever is also getting mandatory testing?

 

This might explain the situation in Italy and South Korea.

Well, we have the first case with no clearly established source of infection, and a rather severe one at that. 47-year-old man with pre-existing condition in North Rhine-Westphalia in critical condition and on ventilation with symptoms of severe pneumonia, tested positive along with his wife who now also has developed pneumonia. He had visited the hospital twice on regular appointments during the incubation period, and over 40 staff and patients are being watched, with one nurse showing symptoms. His wife also is a kindergardener, so the facility was shut down.

 

Both also went to a carnival session while already showing symptoms, and one contact there is a Luftwaffe officer based at Cologne, where the government transport squadron is housed. As a result quarantine measures went into effect at the base, and while the officer is being tested it's also being investigated whether he was in contact with crew members of current government flights, including with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. And of course the original couple has mingled with an indeterminate number of people in the last two weeks, at which point isolation measures become pretty pointless.

Edited February 26, 2020 by BansheeOne

[rmgill]

The CDC already has a test protocol (Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test that can diagnose COVID-19 in respiratory samples from clinical specimens.

They have it sequenced and in a GenBank for researching.

They've grown it in cell culture and it can be accessed by the scientific community for researching and development of cures

I grew up with some of the public health and infectious diseases folks. My neighbor works at the CDC has not expressed any sort of substantive panic response. Her observation was that the Flu still has a substantially higher rate of death as of yet.

COVID-19 presents issues in that it has a lot of unknowns.

[DKTanker]

COVID-19 presents issues in that it has a lot of unknowns.

One of the unknowns being how many people have been infected but because their case was so mild it wasn't reported? The MHM (Mass Hysteria Media) has been reporting hysterical mortality rates ranging from 3%-15% but are utterly failing to report that the overall mortality rate of reported cases is closer to .3%, and falling, when you take out the two outliers, Wuhan, and Iran.

[DB]

Bear in mind that the 3% figure is comparing current reports of infections against deaths, which may under-report as people who are being counted now haven't had it long enough to die.

 

Of course, people with minor or no symptoms may never be counted, which as you note, works in the other direction

 

 

Meanwhile, Iran is arresting people who have been reporting on the outbreak in country. We will never know how many people die there.

[DKTanker]

Meanwhile, Iran is arresting people who have been reporting on the outbreak in country. We will never know how many people die there.

Or made to die. It must be admitted, it would make a convenient way to disappear people.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

the Islamic Republic would never take this chance to clear out enemies of the state while using the outbreak as cover

such a notion is, well

never mind

[rmgill]

 

COVID-19 presents issues in that it has a lot of unknowns.

One of the unknowns being how many people have been infected but because their case was so mild it wasn't reported? The MHM (Mass Hysteria Media) has been reporting hysterical mortality rates ranging from 3%-15% but are utterly failing to report that the overall mortality rate of reported cases is closer to .3%, and falling, when you take out the two outliers, Wuhan, and Iran.

 

It really depends on the health of the folks infected I suspect. Among North Koreans, I'm sure the mortality is far higher. Among North American Overfeds with lots of work outdoors and lots of stamina...I suspect they'll be fine. It's our old folks that I'm most worried about.

 

Given the source of the largest dataset, it's hard to actually put a read on it until it's coming out of a 1st world country.

Edited February 26, 2020 by rmgill

[RETAC21]

 

 

COVID-19 presents issues in that it has a lot of unknowns.

One of the unknowns being how many people have been infected but because their case was so mild it wasn't reported? The MHM (Mass Hysteria Media) has been reporting hysterical mortality rates ranging from 3%-15% but are utterly failing to report that the overall mortality rate of reported cases is closer to .3%, and falling, when you take out the two outliers, Wuhan, and Iran.

 

It really depends on the health of the folks infected I suspect. Among North Koreans, I'm sure the mortality is far higher. Among North American Overfeds with lots of work outdoors and lots of stamina...I suspect they'll be fine. It's our old folks that I'm most worried about.

 

Given the source of the largest dataset, it's hard to actually put a read on it until it's coming out of a 1st world country.

 

 

You will be surprised to learn that poverty can actually work for your health, Cuban live long because they can't have bad habits, hence get relatively healthy food, do lots of exercise and smoke little - NKs could be similar.

[Der Zeitgeist]

 

You will be surprised to learn that poverty can actually work for your health, Cuban live long because they can't have bad habits, hence get relatively healthy food, do lots of exercise and smoke little - NKs could be similar.

 

 

One might also note that life expectancy in the US and Cuba is roughly the same.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Der Zeitgeist

[DB]

I missed this article which outlines some of the key correlations from the metadata released by China about the first 44,000 cases.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981

 

It's best to be under 80.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

well, every warehouse in the USA that we can buy from is out of particulate respirators.

I seem to have missed my chance to be RICH...again

[RETAC21]

 

 

You will be surprised to learn that poverty can actually work for your health, Cuban live long because they can't have bad habits, hence get relatively healthy food, do lots of exercise and smoke little - NKs could be similar.

 

 

One might also note that life expectancy in the US and Cuba is roughly the same.

 

 

But the medical care is not

[rmgill]

well, every warehouse in the USA that we can buy from is out of particulate respirators.

I seem to have missed my chance to be RICH...again

Yep. That changed over last week. I need to go check a possible side source. (welding supply stores and woodworking supply stores).

[JasonJ]

 

Medical masks are used by around 80% of train passengers here now, including me. I try to touch less than usual when riding the trains and I wash my hands upon arriving at my destination. I can't be sure if it makes a difference but better safe than sorry. The masks do little in protecting oneself but help in prevent transmitting to others. So its appreciative when others where it. So I should respond in kind. A number of companies have made it a requirement to use the mask when taking the train. School trips and other such large scale outings are being cancelled. Even the Prime Minister urged people to avoid large get togethers. The usual large number of Chinese tourists in the Namba area and elsewhere have seen a decrease. I hope the warm Spring and preventive measures kill it off.

 

Depends on the mask. If it has a good seal over the nose/mouth area, and the filter media is rated for the particulate size.

Those are better but still don't cover the eyes, which is the big weakspot. Avoid touching one's own eyes would improve it.

[Mobius]

 

Meanwhile, Iran is arresting people who have been reporting on the outbreak in country. We will never know how many people die there.

Or made to die. It must be admitted, it would make a convenient way to disappear people.

That's what I was thinking after the doctor that first sounded the alarm conveniently died.

[Nobu]

Depends on the mask. If it has a good seal over the nose/mouth area, and the filter media is rated for the particulate size.

 

The seal is the thing. I would not be surprised if a development would be an advance in mask design that raises the global health and terminology standard for them.

[rmgill]

 

Those are better but still don't cover the eyes, which is the big weakspot. Avoid touching one's own eyes would improve it.

 

Yep. That's a problem. Goggles or a face shield would help. But ideally a full respirator is probably more necessary if you're working with infected people.

 

Removing the protective gear which should be considered contaminated can also be a problem.

[JasonJ]

I missed this article which outlines some of the key correlations from the metadata released by China about the first 44,000 cases.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981

 

It's best to be under 80.

Seemingly similar ratio in Japan. Even though there's about 180 cases in Japan and about 700 cases from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan, the ones that are in serious condition are older in age.

 

According to the gov, there are a total of 51 (36 cruise ship and 15 in Japan itself)in serious condition. Flr the cruise ship, 7 are in their 80s, 20 are in there 70s, and 9 are in their 60s. Among them, it was confirmed that 14 of them had a chronic illness. Nationality-wise, 19 are Japanese and 17 are foreigners.

 

厚生労働省によりますと、新型コロナウイルスへの感染が確認された人で、人工呼吸器をつけたり集中治療室で治療を受けたりしている重症者は、26日の時点で、クルーズ船の乗客者が36人、国内で感染した人などが15人の合わせて51人となっています。

クルーズ船の乗船者で重症になっている人のうち、これまでに14人に持病があったことが確認されています。

 

また年代別でみると80代が７人、70代が20人、60代が９人です。

日本人は19人外国人は17人だということです。

 

一方、国内で感染が確認された人のうちクルーズ船の乗客乗員を除いて、25日までに合わせて32人が症状が改善するなどして退院したということです。

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200226/amp/k10012303381000.html

 

Although most of everyone have parents. So preventive measures seem well in order.

Edited February 26, 2020 by JasonJ

[rmgill]

 

Depends on the mask. If it has a good seal over the nose/mouth area, and the filter media is rated for the particulate size.

 

The seal is the thing. I would not be surprised if a development would be an advance in mask design that raises the global health and terminology standard for them.

 

We already have them. The difference is a rubber face seal area with an exhalation valve. There's a test fit unit that has a probe for measuring the seal. This of course does not have the filter canister opening that you can test by putting your hand over it like on a Military NBC mask to test fit prior to ABSOLUTELY needing it because alarms are going off. And unlike an organic solvent protection mask, you can't get a whiff of the solvent you're using to know that you need to adjust the fit.

 

​

Edited February 26, 2020 by rmgill

[JasonJ]

 

Those are better but still don't cover the eyes, which is the big weakspot. Avoid touching one's own eyes would improve it.

 

Yep. That's a problem. Goggles or a face shield would help. But ideally a full respirator is probably more necessary if you're working with infected people.

 

Removing the protective gear which should be considered contaminated can also be a problem.

I wonder if even just glasses could help add to protection, even if just a little. And then just washing them every day. Maybe just rinsing with water wouldn't be enough though. Perhaps alcohol.