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Thanks once again for your contributions on this thread nitflegal.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/politics/coronavirus-outbreak-uss-michael-murphy/index.html

 

There has been a major coronavirus outbreak aboard a US Navy guided missile destroyer, the USS Michael Murphy, which has spread to nearly one-quarter of the ship's 300 strong-crew, according to two US Navy officials.

The ship has been in port in Hawaii so there has been limited operational impact due to the outbreak.
One official said that the majority of the sailors who have contracted the virus experienced no symptoms and many are expected to return to the ship in the coming days.
A spokesperson for the US Navy confirmed that "personnel assigned to USS Michael Murphy tested positive for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Nov. 4," but did not provide the number of sailors that contracted the disease, citing Defense Department policy.

 


 

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About that Danish mask study:

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-danish-newspaper-reveals-largest-study-masks-rejected

 

 The article reveals that, thus far, the study has been rejected by the Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, and the American Medical Association's journal JAMA, three of the publications that have been posting much of the research on coronavirus.

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https://www.bitchute.com/video/0y4GRejpM0rc/

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Dr. Mike Yeadon, a former Vice President and Chief Science Officer for Pfizer for 16 years, says that half or even "almost all" of tests for COVID are false positives. Dr. Yeadon also argues that the threshold for herd immunity may be much lower than previously thought, and may have been reached in many countries already.

 

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Even Sweden appears to be abandoning the Swedish model. On Monday, the country’s authorities banned gatherings of more than eight people as they grappled with the second coronavirus wave surging through much of Europe. The new restrictions followed other protocols coming into effect this week, including protective measures around nursing homes and bans on alcohol sales at restaurants and bars after 10 p.m.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/has-sweden-e2-80-99s-coronavirus-strategy-failed/ar-BB1b74R3

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51 minutes ago, Ivanhoe said:

I made it about ten minutes into that piece and closed the tab.  In places like here you clearly have a second wave starting and hospital admissions are eerily starting to rise yet again (back into the 80% capacity range... oddly enough they never lowered all that much after the period when ICUs were almost overrun... likely due to all those other medical conditions not treated during the Pandemic's peak now rearing their ugly heads).  Deaths are also clearly back on the rise (single digits for a while and now as high as 50/day). 

So here in AZ, a place that at one point was the worst as far as infection rates in the world, there's clearly no sign that this virus is going away or that we've reached any sort of herd immunity.  We've also had fairly decent and consistent antibody testing from the start rather than a singular point of reference like he keeps referring to over in the UK and those numbers have been consistently rising slowly.

I'd like to believe the guy.  There's just no reason to...

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3 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

I made it about ten minutes into that piece and closed the tab.  In places like here you clearly have a second wave starting and hospital admissions are eerily starting to rise yet again (back into the 80% capacity range... oddly enough they never lowered all that much after the period when ICUs were almost overrun... likely due to all those other medical conditions not treated during the Pandemic's peak now rearing their ugly heads).  Deaths are also clearly back on the rise (single digits for a while and now as high as 50/day). 

So here in AZ, a place that at one point was the worst as far as infection rates in the world, there's clearly no sign that this virus is going away or that we've reached any sort of herd immunity.  We've also had fairly decent and consistent antibody testing from the start rather than a singular point of reference like he keeps referring to over in the UK and those numbers have been consistently rising slowly.

I'd like to believe the guy.  There's just no reason to...

I just checked AZs stats.  The second wave isn't hitting as hard as before.

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Interesting stats:

Cases in N American countries - 9.9%

Cases in USA - 90.1%

Deaths in N American countries - 30.0%

Deaths in USA  - 70%

#USA StateTotal CasesTotal DeathsTotal RecoveredActive CasesTot Cases
/1M popDeaths
/1M popTotal
TestsTests
/1M pop

1Texas1,147,27620,766921,474205,03639,56771610,714,040369,502

2California1,086,90018,588530,813537,49927,50847021,730,551549,970

3Florida923,41817,889632,398273,13142,99483311,348,596528,389

4Illinois634,39511,795333,510289,09050,0639319,588,698756,695

5New York617,74134,136433,162150,44331,7551,75517,386,368893,737

6Georgia440,5959,142277,674153,77941,4978614,395,079413,950

7Wisconsin344,9452,954266,28075,71159,2445072,407,136413,424

8Ohio335,4235,955216,619112,84928,6955095,459,223467,035

9Tennessee331,5324,202287,90839,42248,5466154,215,908617,338

10North Carolina328,8464,979276,13247,73531,3544754,819,029459,477

11Michigan321,1818,774138,862173,54532,1608796,490,656649,920

12New Jersey304,11516,839190,31996,95734,2391,8965,517,700621,209

13Pennsylvania301,3739,766190,725100,88223,5417633,290,322257,016

14Arizona291,6966,42746,951238,31840,0758832,418,990332,337

15Indiana282,3115,206159,413117,69241,9347733,785,422562,284

16Missouri276,7753,74273,563199,47045,0966103,048,556496,716

17Minnesota256,7003,206202,43251,06245,5175683,659,452648,881

18Alabama228,3733,45190,702134,22046,5767041,577,461321,722

19Louisiana216,7096,233185,96024,51646,6161,3413,286,083706,868

20Virginia213,3313,91222,946186,47324,9934583,439,600402,975

21Iowa203,9662,135114,34487,48764,6476771,146,772363,470

22South Carolina203,1614,231105,85693,07439,4598222,458,520477,502

23Massachusetts200,94910,469154,95435,52629,1551,5197,648,2431,109,647

24Colorado182,8012,73052,615127,45631,7434741,537,359266,961

25Maryland177,0864,3988,474164,21429,2917274,039,322668,134

26Utah170,584773112,35657,45553,2082411,857,693579,450

27Oklahoma167,2611,603134,93430,72442,2704051,917,639484,623

28Kentucky152,2061,76225,728124,71634,0683942,551,187571,033

29Washington144,3902,62160,31581,45418,9623442,856,474375,117

30Arkansas141,9162,321122,21917,37647,0267691,678,657556,251

31Mississippi140,4293,642116,68320,10447,1851,2241,213,935407,888

32Kansas136,2411,41079,56855,26346,765484763,893262,208

33Nevada129,7141,98278,70349,02942,1136431,478,163479,899

34Nebraska109,28085455,88552,54156,493441692,494357,988

35US Military108,56211966,19342,250

36Connecticut101,4694,82846,74949,89228,4601,3542,922,017819,574

37Veteran Affairs95,6234,52379,16311,937947,868

38Idaho87,97883536,83150,31249,230467615,492344,415

39Puerto Rico82,90499137,32744,58624,478293464,073137,018

40New Mexico74,1161,30227,65945,15535,3476211,420,797677,593

41South Dakota71,07074151,92218,40780,336838306,869346,878

42North Dakota70,01681859,2839,91591,8771,073333,327437,401

43Oregon62,17581214,741193990,744234,899

44Montana53,29356730,55722,16949,863531601,675562,956

45Rhode Island48,0011,2943,27743,43045,3111,2211,416,0281,336,681

46West Virginia38,48063925,66412,17721,471357989,560552,165

47Delaware30,81674615,53414,53631,646766391,977402,538

48Wyoming27,12917616,31610,63746,874304354,329612,222

49Alaska25,3691006,51618,75334,679137898,7991,228,631

50Federal Prisons25,19514320,2034,84977,520

51District Of Columbia19,80866914,6994,44028,067948612,204867,453

52Hawaii16,93622412,0064,70611,962158612,615432,677

53New Hampshire16,27750611,7654,00611,971372738,062542,808

54Navajo Nation14,0856188,0285,439144,514

55Maine9,9581737,5902,1957,408129800,980595,873

56Guam6,4521034,4301,91979,919

57Vermont3,459622,2051,1925,54399207,016331,762

58United States Virgin Islands1,482231,3936627,174

59Northern Mariana Islands1032297223,472

60Grand Princess Ship1033100

61Wuhan Repatriated333

https://virusncov.com/covid-statistics/usa

 

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5 hours ago, Stargrunt6 said:

Even in my home state, infections skyrocketed yet deaths are unchanged as of earlier this week.

 

That's the way it looked for a week or two in the UK, too. I posted a chart a few days ago showing that deaths do rise, but as a ratio of deaths to positive tests is far lower. the overall ratio of deaths to positive test results has dropped from 15.7% in April to about 3.75% now.

Nevertheless, deaths are rising again to average over 400 per day.

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Date 21.11.202

Coronavirus vaccine: Pfizer, BioNTech seek emergency use in US

Days after Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their coronavirus vaccine appeared to be 95% effective at preventing COVID, the company has reached out to US regulators to allow emergency use of the vaccine candidate

Pfizer and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine may be the first candidate to be available in the market after the companies on Friday formally asked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow emergency use of the new drug.

"It is with great pride and joy, and even a little relief, that I can say that our request for emergency use authorization for our Covid-19 vaccine is now in the FDA's hands," said Pfizer chief executive Albert Bourla.

He referred to it as "a historic day for science and for all of us."

Days earlier, the American pharmaceutical giant and its German partner BioNTech had announced that their COVID-19 vaccine appeared to be 95% effective at preventing mild to severe COVID-19 infections. The latest results came at the conclusion of phase-three testing of the vaccine.

"The FDA recognizes that transparency and dialogue are critical for the public to have confidence in COVID-19 vaccines," the organization's head Stephen Hahn said in a statement. "I want to assure the American people that the FDA's process and evaluation of the data for a potential Covid-19 vaccine will be as open and transparent as possible."

While it remains unclear how long the FDA will take to study vaccine data and provide necessary approvals, it could be available as early as the first half of December. 

"The companies will be ready to distribute the vaccine candidate within hours after authorization," the companies’ statement said.

However, the initial supply of the vaccine will be rationed. The companies estimate that 50 million doses could be made available by the end of 2020, with 25 million available for use in the US next month. In addition to that, 30 million doses may be available in January and 35 million more in the next two months.

Notably, emergency approval doesn’t mean that the vaccine has received full approval. It is deemed investigational until all authorities sign off on it.

Each recipient will need two shots in a period of three weeks. There have also been some concerns about the logistical practicality of the vaccine, which must be stored at  -70 degrees Celsius (-94 degrees Fahrenheit)

As other vaccine competitors like Moderna Inc and AstraZenecaalso make significant progress, Pfizer and BioNTech said they had started "rolling" applications in Europe and the UK.

Since the start of the pandemic, COVID-19 has killed nearly 1.4 million people and infected over 57 million.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-pfizer-biontech-seek-emergency-use-in-us/a-55682861

 

Quote

Date 20.11.2020

Coronavirus: WHO advises against remdesivir for hospitalized COVID-19 patients

A World Health Organization panel said the anti-viral drug remdesivir should not be used to treat COVID-19 patients, no matter how ill they are. The experts said the drug has "no important effect" on death rates.

International experts with the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday that the anti-viral drug remdesivir shouldn't be used to treat hospitalized patients with COVID-19, regardless of "disease severity."

"The panel found a lack of evidence that remdesivir improved outcomes that matter to patients such as reduced mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, time to clinical improvement and others," the WHO Guideline Development Group (GDG) said, following up on a report last month. 

The panel said that their recommendation didn't not mean that there were no potential benefits for patients. However, the experts felt there was insufficient evidence of remdesivir having a meaningful effect on death rates or recovery times for patients, particularly when considering that it is costly and difficult to administer as it has to be given intravenously. 

"Especially given the costs and resource implications associated with remdesivir ... the panel felt the responsibility should be on demonstrating evidence of efficacy, which is not established by the current available data," the GDG said in its non-binding report.

Manufacturer Gilead questions findings

The anti-viral drug is manufactured by US pharmaceutical company Gilead, which disputes the findings.

"[Remdesivir] is recognized as a standard of care for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in guidelines from numerous credible national organizations, including the US National Institutes of Health and Infectious Diseases Society of America, Japan, [the] UK and Germany," it said in a response, using the drug's brand name Veklury, claiming that the WHO's findings were yet to be subjected to peer review.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-who-advises-against-remdesivir-for-hospitalized-covid-19-patients/a-55671134

 

Quote

November 16, 20202:51 PM Updated 5 days ago

Researchers find coronavirus was circulating in Italy earlier than thought

By Giselda Vagnoni

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus was circulating in Italy in September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan shows, signaling that it might have spread beyond China earlier than thought.

The World Health Organization has said the new coronavirus and COVID-19, the respiratory disease it causes, were unknown before the outbreak was reported in Wuhan, central China, late last year. But it has said “the possibility that the virus may have silently circulated elsewhere cannot be ruled out.”

The WHO said on Monday it was reviewing the results from Italy and additional information published there at the weekend and was seeking clarification.

Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a small town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.

The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.

A further SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research titled “Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy”.

It showed that four cases dating back to the first week of October were positive for antibodies, meaning they had got infected in September, Giovanni Apolone, a co-author of the study, told Reuters.

[...]

Italian researchers told Reuters in March that they reported a higher than usual number of cases of severe pneumonia and flu in Lombardy in the last quarter of 2019 in a sign that the new coronavirus might have circulated earlier than thought.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-italian-study-shows-idUSKBN27V0KF

 

Quote

November 19, 20207:09 PMUpdated 2 days ago

Researchers say study on COVID-19 in Italy doesn't dispute virus origins

By Emilio Parodi

 

MILAN (Reuters) - The authors of a study showing that the new coronavirus was circulating in Italy earlier than experts had previously believed said on Thursday their data did not dispute the origins of COVID-19 as they defended the accuracy of their findings.

The Italian researchers’ findings showed that 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.

If those findings are correct, scientists said it could change the history of the origin of pandemic, raising questions about when and where the virus first emerged.

The novel coronavirus was first identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a small town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.

The Chinese government said on Tuesday it believed the study showed that tracing the origin of the virus was an ongoing process that may involve many countries.

But the Italian researchers said that’s not necessarily their conclusion.

“These findings simply document that the epidemic in China was not detected in time,” Giovanni Apolone, scientific director of National Cancer Institute (INT) and a co-author of the study, told a news conference in Milan.

The study has also sparked doubts among some Western scientists who called for further tests.

Much of the scepticism was focused on the so-called specificity of the antibody tests, that, if not perfect, might reveal the presence of antibodies to other diseases.

Emanuele Montomoli, co-author of the study and professor of preventive medicine at the University of Siena, defended the accuracy of the research, saying the tests identified the antibodies by targeting a part of the spike protein called the receptor binding domain (RBD), which is specific to the new coronavirus.

“Subsequently the serum samples were also tested on four different types of coronavirus circulating at that time in Europe and the USA and there were no cross reactions,” the scientist told the news conference.

[...]

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-china/researchers-say-study-on-covid-19-in-italy-doesnt-dispute-virus-origins-idINL8N2I55RB

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14 hours ago, MiloMorai said:

Even Sweden appears to be abandoning the Swedish model. On Monday, the country’s authorities banned gatherings of more than eight people as they grappled with the second coronavirus wave surging through much of Europe. The new restrictions followed other protocols coming into effect this week, including protective measures around nursing homes and bans on alcohol sales at restaurants and bars after 10 p.m.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/has-sweden-e2-80-99s-coronavirus-strategy-failed/ar-BB1b74R3

Unfortunately people are stupid. Earlier this year I was kind of proud that most people I saw socially distanced. But that was probably at start of summer when things looked bright. Now it is sometimes like way too many live in denial, despite infection-rates and deaths are going up. Point in case - bars must stop selling alcohol at 10 pm, and close 10:30. Some bar(s) circumvent this by closing.... and then later the same night opening up again, only selling alcohol-free or low-alcohol beer. I get it that it's business, but still beyond stupid.

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2 minutes ago, bojan said:

Why, because virus works only after 10pm? :)

9 to 5 virus, which would be about right if it was made by a government anywhere...

Re, The Danish mask study, i suspect the lack of publication has more to do with peer review than with the study itself, which looked ok to me.

 

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3 hours ago, bojan said:

Why, because virus works only after 10pm? :)

Its more nuanced than that (COVID-19 is the most sophisticated human virus in history). The virus only goes after alcohol drinkers after 2230 hrs.

 

I believe the implication is that you could go to a pub and drink all the Irish coffee you wanted in the am, and still be safe.

 

Since this virus purportedly comes from bats, why isn't the loss of smell accompanied by increased hearing?

 

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6 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

9 to 5 virus, which would be about right if it was made by a government anywhere...

 

But it actually only goes through a replication cycle for 3 hours.  The rest are spent stuck in meetings, answering emails, and bitching about pensions. 

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1 hour ago, Stargrunt6 said:

But it actually only goes through a replication cycle for 3 hours.  The rest are spent stuck in meetings, answering emails, and bitching about pensions. 

Don't forget sensitivity training, etc.

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Looks like my town will be one of the first to get an operational COVID vaccination centre in the local exhibition grounds. They did a trial run there two days ago with our state governor in attendance.

https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/baden-wuerttemberg/ulm/testlauf-fuer-impfzentrum-ulm-messe-100.html

w1200_h675_x750_y485_47e84ae78ee7dfc8.jp

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On 11/20/2020 at 7:00 PM, Ivanhoe said:

That is simple crap. The threshold for herd immunity is quite simple. You need so many many immune members of the population that, one infected can not infect more than one other person. For a highly infectious infection it is over 90% of the population, the lesser the likelyhodd of infection the lower the threshold becomes. But 75-80% is still needed.

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The "Oxford vaccine" has early Phase 3 results.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

The 70% effectiveness claimed is notably lower than that claimed by the other two, but this vaccine is less sensitive to uncontrolled storage conditions and is likely cheaper to manufacture. More intriguing is the variable results from the dosing given with the first and second inoculations - if there is an actual improvement with a Low/High dose mix then 90% effectiveness would be excellent.

Note also that there appears to be a reduction in symptom severity for those inoculated with the Low/High doses versus the High/High doses.

The reason why the Low/High dose appears more effective is unclear. This pandemic is going to give rise to a massive increase in information about viral infections, inoculations and symptoms.

In other news, another study shows a possible link between the MMR vaccine and a reduction in symptom severity. This is discussed in Dr John Campbell's daily update, here. As he notes, this update is a bit on the heavy side for those wanting soundbites. In summary, if you have many mumps antibodies, you get less severe symptoms from a COVID-19 infection,  but this is only true if you got the antibodies from the MMR II jab and not if you caught the disease!

More study on why this happens is needed, but it is suggested that this may be because there are similarities (homology) between Measles, Mumps, Rubella and COVID-19 viruses that might mean antibodies generated through the MMR jab may have some effect on COVID-19.

He also suggests that MMR was made available from the mid 80s and so that this *might* account for the relatively good outcomes for the younger cohorts who would have most likely been given this jab.

Unless their parents had succumbed to the cult of Andrew Fucking Wakefield, of course.

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3 hours ago, seahawk said:

That is simple crap. The threshold for herd immunity is quite simple. You need so many many immune members of the population that, one infected can not infect more than one other person. For a highly infectious infection it is over 90% of the population, the lesser the likelyhodd of infection the lower the threshold becomes. But 75-80% is still needed.

Herd immunity has to be "durable" though.  And it isn't because it ends up being self-terminable.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772167

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