Covid-19 Pandemic

[Stefan Fredriksson]

It is not often I can say "I know the exact feeling"....

I was sure loss of smell only happened to others.

Wife now also has fever and joint pain, starting this afternoon.

[lucklucky]

National Public Health School for Lisbon Nova University analyzed the 12% increase in overall excess deaths in the period from 16 March to 30 September.  -Note that in 0 to 44 years old cohort instead there was a reduction of 1% in excess deaths -

They say only 32.5% can be attributed to COVID. 

 

They attribute mostly of the other do to lack of health care giving this data.

8% less pre-care specially with people with serious health issue. They attribute this mostly to fear. (i have doubt about this seeing how was difficult to get home care in the peak)

53% less home medical visitations.

49% less home visitations for primary care.

11% less hospital medical consultations

50% less in testings, exams etc

21% less in small medical operations

9% less emergency/grave medical operations

They also note there was an increase of 116% in distant consultations and give the advice there is need to check the impact in diagnostic quality.

In Portuguese

https://eco.sapo.pt/2020/11/02/culpa-do-excesso-de-mortalidade-nao-e-do-calor-explicacao-plausivel-e-menos-cuidados-de-saude/

 

 

Edited November 3, 2020 by lucklucky

[lucklucky]

 

North of Portugal Hospital Occupation. (should not include private health care hospitals)

Edited November 2, 2020 by lucklucky

[DB]

Also interesting, luckylucky.

The main thing that stands out is that this year's data is within 2 standard deviations of the 5 year mean, so in Portugal it cannot be said that this is a particularly unusual year. The case that there is *any* excess mortality cannot be made with high confidence.

The problem (if it can be considered such) is that the pandemic control measures put in place have been effective (broadly speaking) at reducing numbers.

It would be useful to see the numbers per month, to see if excess mortality by month is statistically significant and diluted as protective measures and treatments improved.

[lucklucky]

You have here the paper but it is in Portuguese

https://barometro-covid-19.ensp.unl.pt/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/excesso-de-mortalidade-colateral-temperaturas-e-no-de-atos-02.112020.pdf

In page 2 you have the graphic excess mortality per week, you can see only in June it surpassed over 2 standard deviations and at that time we had few COVID related deaths.

 

 

 

[Stargrunt6]

In spite of a surge of cases, Sweden's covid death rate got small uptick.

[Rickard N]

Hopefully it stays that way but I think we'll need two weeks to know

 

/R

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 02.11.2020

Coronavirus: German hospitals brace for 'record number' of intensive care patients

Within a few weeks, the number of ICU patients is expected to pass the record set in April, the head of the German Hospital Federation said. Medical experts also warned of exhausted staff and diminished care capacity.

German hospitals are set to see a record number of patients receiving intensive care due to the latest surge in new coronavirus infections, the German Hospital Federation head Gerald Gass said in an interview on Monday.

"In two to three weeks, we will exceed the highest number of intensive care patients seen in April, and we can no longer prevent that," Gass told the mass-circulation Bild newspaper. "Anyone who will be admitted to the hospital in three weeks is already infected today. Unfortunately, that's the realistic prognosis."

Additionally, medical staff working in other areas are expected to be transferred to intensive care units, he said. "This is of course not ideal, but it can be justified in such an exceptional situation."

Spring 'less dramatic' than now

Other medical professionals have echoed Gass' sentiment, calling for stronger countermeasures to curb infections and ease the strain on hospitals. 

"Very clearly, there is not much room in some federal states," Uwe Janssens, the president of the German Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, told Bild am Sonntag.

"Berlin only has 14% of its intensive care beds available, and Bremen 17%. The situation in the spring was much less dramatic than what is in store for us now."

[...]

Questions over accurate data

Experts have also cited questions over the true number of available beds, as not all hospitals are equipped with enough staff to offer care despite having bed capacity. At the end of last week, more than 7,500 intensive care beds were still available.

However, "many hospitals register beds as available, which are free but cannot be used due to a lack of personnel," Christian Karagiannidis, the speaker for the intensive care registry told Welt am Sonntag.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-german-hospitals-brace-for-record-number-of-intensive-care-patients/a-55470695

[Colin]

Locally we having a spike thanks mainly to Indian house parties, they can`t seem to do without the big wedding. The actual numbers in my neighbourhood are quite low.

[Ivanhoe]

21 hours ago, DB said:

It would be useful to see the numbers per month, to see if excess mortality by month is statistically significant and diluted as protective measures and treatments improved.

True. I'd like to see year-over-year comparisons by month, even though data for prior years are going to be wiggly due to seasonal flus impacting at different times.

Here in the US, there's little doubt that the quarantine impacted the overall death rate due to less drunk driving and fewer workplace accidents. We probably have a substantial reduction in traffic deaths in the May-Sep period simply due to a lot less long-distance vacation driving.

[Simon Tan]

That's racist.

[Stefan Fredriksson]

Test came back positive. Must admit I would have been disappointed otherwise.

[sunday]

Take care, please.

[Ssnake]

Best wishes!

[wendist]

2 minutes ago, Stefan Fredriksson said:

Test came back positive. Must admit I would have been disappointed otherwise.

I guess the bright side is you won't have to waste any more good cognac.😉 Hope this will go over soon for both you and your wife.

[Stuart Galbraith]

1 minute ago, wendist said:

I guess the bright side is you won't have to waste any more good cognac.😉 Hope this will go over soon for both you and your wife.

Yeah, I was going to say at least he knows the Cognac hasnt gone off.

Take care mate, and please keep us informed how you and your wife are getting on.

[Stefan Fredriksson]

Thanks!

Wife is much stronger than me, light fever, some fatigue, and that's it. For me it has passed over into a clogged up cold.

One of the kids are starting to get sick also though. Hard to avoid, living in the same appartment.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Stefan Fredriksson

[WRW]

I do know a few people who were positive. Some were like a very bad flew. Others more severe but all turned out ok .

[WRW]

Wife got second vaccine shot yesterday. As before bit feverish this morning. Should be better mid evening .

[Simon Tan]

So in Sweden you stay at home? Here in Malaysia all positives are admitted.

[Murph]

Well, it has come to the Murphy house, looks like my oldest daughter might have it.  Stocking up on Gatorade.  More in 3-5 days when the test results come out.  

[Stuart Galbraith]

Do take care Murph, and I hope your youngest gets through it soon.

[sunday]

Hope for a quick recovery of daughter, and no further cases, Murph.

[Murph]

Thanks all.  

[Stefan Fredriksson]

Murph, take care of family and yourself!