Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Currently at 19 deaths outside of China. 5 from ROK and 5 from Iran. 2 from the cruise ship quarantined ship in Japan with 1 from Japan itself, 2 from HK, 1 from the Philippines, France, Taiwan, and Italy each.

 

Deaths in China at 2,442.

Could the Chinese deaths be linked to the fact that they have a huge number of elderly male lifetime smokers? Saw that mentioned in an article on NRO. Something like 50% of Chinese males smoke.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 8.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

 

Currently at 19 deaths outside of China. 5 from ROK and 5 from Iran. 2 from the cruise ship quarantined ship in Japan with 1 from Japan itself, 2 from HK, 1 from the Philippines, France, Taiwan, and Italy each.

 

Deaths in China at 2,442.

Could the Chinese deaths be linked to the fact that they have a huge number of elderly male lifetime smokers? Saw that mentioned in an article on NRO. Something like 50% of Chinese males smoke.

 

 

Not to mention smog you can cut with a knife.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Currently at 19 deaths outside of China. 5 from ROK and 5 from Iran. 2 from the cruise ship quarantined ship in Japan with 1 from Japan itself, 2 from HK, 1 from the Philippines, France, Taiwan, and Italy each.

Deaths in China at 2,442.

 

Could the Chinese deaths be linked to the fact that they have a huge number of elderly male lifetime smokers? Saw that mentioned in an article on NRO. Something like 50% of Chinese males smoke.

If so, then that's a point to be made.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Hooray for globalization!

 

Coronavirus: US dependence on China for pharmaceutical ingredients will hinder outbreak response, lawmakers are told

 

US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

 

“In many cases China is the sole source of that material,” Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill.

 

[snip]

 

Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

 

Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trump’s National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. “That needs to change going forward,” she said.

 

 

Do you want more expensive medicines?

 

No penicillin is made in the US anymore. Do you want any medicines? At any price?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Hooray for globalization!

 

Coronavirus: US dependence on China for pharmaceutical ingredients will hinder outbreak response, lawmakers are told

 

US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

 

In many cases China is the sole source of that material, Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill.

 

[snip]

 

Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

 

Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trumps National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. That needs to change going forward, she said.

 

Do you want more expensive medicines?
They already have been.

 

I had a bunch of gold ETFs i sold last month for extra cash, so glad I did:

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-suddenly-hammered-multi-billion-dollar-sale

 

Gold went through the roof today. You missed out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

Hooray for globalization!

 

Coronavirus: US dependence on China for pharmaceutical ingredients will hinder outbreak response, lawmakers are told

 

US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

 

In many cases China is the sole source of that material, Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill.

 

[snip]

 

Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

 

Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trumps National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. That needs to change going forward, she said.

 

Do you want more expensive medicines?
They already have been.

 

I had a bunch of gold ETFs i sold last month for extra cash, so glad I did:

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-suddenly-hammered-multi-billion-dollar-sale

Gold went through the roof today. You missed out.

of course it did.... charliebrown.exe

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One question I've been asking myself about the Italian outbreak exploding almost out of nowhere:

 

What if the virus is basically everywhere already and just becomes visible in a particular region when someone is getting tested (because of recent travel, critical condition or whatever), and then everyone with fever is also getting mandatory testing?

 

This might explain the situation in Italy and South Korea.

Edited by Der Zeitgeist
Link to comment
Share on other sites

COVID 19 aka Coronavirus has an R0 of something like 1.4 to 6.6. Meaning that every person who has the disease is likely to infect anywhere from 1.4 to 6.6 people. Given that there's a symptomless period of about a week where you're also likely to infect others....this is a problem.

Basic reproduction number
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from R naught)
Jump to navigationJump to search
Customary values of R0 of well-known infectious diseases[1] Disease Transmission R0 Measles Airborne 12–18 Diphtheria Saliva 6–7 Smallpox Airborne droplet 5–7 Polio Fecal–oral route 5–7 Rubella Airborne droplet 5–7 Mumps Airborne droplet 4–7 Pertussis Airborne droplet 5.5[2] HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 2–5 SARS Airborne droplet 2–5[3] COVID-19 Airborne droplet 1.4–6.6[4][5][6] Influenza
(1918 pandemic strain) Airborne droplet 2–3[7] Ebola
(2014 Ebola outbreak) Body fluids 1.5–2.5[8] MERS Airborne droplet 0.3-0.8[9]

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (sometimes called basic reproductive ratio, or incorrectly basic reproductive rate, and denoted R0, pronounced R nought or R zero[10]) of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.[11] The definition describes the state where no other individuals are infected or immunized (naturally or through vaccination). Some definitions, such as that of the Australian Department of Health, add absence of "any deliberate intervention in disease transmission".[12]The basic reproduction number is not to be confused with the effective reproduction number R which is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population, which does not have to be the uninfected state. By definition R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns.

R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population. Furthermore R0 values are usually estimated from mathematical models, and the estimated values are dependent on the model used and values of other parameters. Thus values given in the literature make only sense in the given context and it is recommended not to use obsolete values or compare values based on different models.[13] R0 does not by itself give an estimate of how fast an infection spreads in the population.

The most important uses of R0 are determining if an emerging infectious disease can spread in a population and determining what proportion of the population should be immunized through vaccination to eradicate a disease. In commonly used infection models, when R0 > 1 the infection will be able to start spreading in a population, but not if R0 < 1. Generally, the larger the value of R0, the harder it is to control the epidemic. For simple models, the proportion of the population that needs to be effectively immunized (meaning not susceptible to infection) to prevent sustained spread of the infection has to be larger than 1 − 1/R0.[14] Conversely, the proportion of the population that remains susceptible to infection in the endemic equilibrium is 1/R0.

The basic reproduction number is affected by several factors including the duration of infectivity of affected patients, the infectiousness of the organism, and the number of susceptible people in the population that the affected patients are in contact with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EUprtT4.jpg

 

 

All joking aside, those drivers have far more courage than I could ever have.

 

Not really. The passengers were all put in quarantine, but very very probably not infected. the guy in the suit did not have time to change clothes.

 

 


 

 

in other news irony strikes and the vice-health minister if Iran has been infected:

 

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
7 Std.
BREAKING: Iran's deputy health minister tests positive for coronavirus; he had previously looked unwell during a press conference

 

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232276183305400320

 

 

 

and a south korean official coordinating the local ncov outbreak jumped of a bridge: https://www.sedaily.com/NewsView/1YZ25XSKC3

 

Edited by Panzermann
Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

0-9, apparently no fatalities. No idea how many in that age bracket confirmed infected, but even statistically there should be a few, even if only due to some underlying comorbidity

 

 

It's as if something about the onset of puberty makes the human organism more vulnerable to the virus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

0-9, apparently no fatalities. No idea how many in that age bracket confirmed infected, but even statistically there should be a few, even if only due to some underlying comorbidity

It's as if something about the onset of puberty makes the human organism more vulnerable to the virus.

I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. There may be other factors involved. The sample is not that large. It's usually the kids that bring it back from school to infect the family. But, China may be different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Italy as a secondary source is becoming a problem for Europe.

 

The UK health advice for travellers returning from North Italyis to self isolate if you have any symptoms, and if you've been to Lombardy or Veneto(?) , to self isolate even if you have no symptoms.

 

I also heard that less than 50% of workers in China are at work at the moment. I can hear "recession" on the wind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As so many supply chains originate something from China many products will be in short supply. OK, the just-in-time inventory supply system has a fatal flaw. So those that implemented it should be suffer the consequenses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As so many supply chains originate something from China many products will be in short supply. OK, the just-in-time inventory supply system has a fatal flaw. So those that implemented it should be suffer the consequenses.

This will certainly clarify a lot of critical supply chain flaws of the globalized world in a way that no table top exercise ever would. I expect a lot of "Huh?" moments in the coming months as production issues even in areas you thought you had local production capacity for, on account of some minor but critical component being out of supply.

 

Ensuring full local manufacturing capability for many things is suddenly going to become a lot more attractive. Whether that will manage to counteract the drive to cut costs is another matter and will depend on how bad things get before the immediate crisis passes.

 

Interesting times just keep coming.

 

--

Soren

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

As so many supply chains originate something from China many products will be in short supply. OK, the just-in-time inventory supply system has a fatal flaw. So those that implemented it should be suffer the consequenses.

This will certainly clarify a lot of critical supply chain flaws of the globalized world in a way that no table top exercise ever would. I expect a lot of "Huh?" moments in the coming months as production issues even in areas you thought you had local production capacity for, on account of some minor but critical component being out of supply.

 

Ensuring full local manufacturing capability for many things is suddenly going to become a lot more attractive. Whether that will manage to counteract the drive to cut costs is another matter and will depend on how bad things get before the immediate crisis passes.

 

Interesting times just keep coming.

 

--

Soren

 

I have just ordered about AUS 1400 dollars of stuff to get us and a neighbour through the initial stages of this. (Pet food, 'care products', toilet paper etc etc etc)

Edited by DougRichards
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...