Harold Jones Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Currently at 19 deaths outside of China. 5 from ROK and 5 from Iran. 2 from the cruise ship quarantined ship in Japan with 1 from Japan itself, 2 from HK, 1 from the Philippines, France, Taiwan, and Italy each. Deaths in China at 2,442.Could the Chinese deaths be linked to the fact that they have a huge number of elderly male lifetime smokers? Saw that mentioned in an article on NRO. Something like 50% of Chinese males smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobu Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 (edited) That could certainly play a role in it. It will be interesting to see the correlation. Time to buy in! Someone called the market correctly last week. It sure was not me. Edited February 24, 2020 by Nobu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Currently at 19 deaths outside of China. 5 from ROK and 5 from Iran. 2 from the cruise ship quarantined ship in Japan with 1 from Japan itself, 2 from HK, 1 from the Philippines, France, Taiwan, and Italy each. Deaths in China at 2,442.Could the Chinese deaths be linked to the fact that they have a huge number of elderly male lifetime smokers? Saw that mentioned in an article on NRO. Something like 50% of Chinese males smoke. Not to mention smog you can cut with a knife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonJ Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 Currently at 19 deaths outside of China. 5 from ROK and 5 from Iran. 2 from the cruise ship quarantined ship in Japan with 1 from Japan itself, 2 from HK, 1 from the Philippines, France, Taiwan, and Italy each.Deaths in China at 2,442. Could the Chinese deaths be linked to the fact that they have a huge number of elderly male lifetime smokers? Saw that mentioned in an article on NRO. Something like 50% of Chinese males smoke.If so, then that's a point to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikel2 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 (edited) All joking aside, those drivers have far more courage than I could ever have. Edited February 24, 2020 by Mikel2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mobius Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Hooray for globalization! Coronavirus: US dependence on China for pharmaceutical ingredients will hinder outbreak response, lawmakers are told US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). “In many cases China is the sole source of that material,” Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill. [snip] Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trump’s National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. “That needs to change going forward,” she said. Do you want more expensive medicines? No penicillin is made in the US anymore. Do you want any medicines? At any price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mobius Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Hooray for globalization! Coronavirus: US dependence on China for pharmaceutical ingredients will hinder outbreak response, lawmakers are told US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In many cases China is the sole source of that material, Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill. [snip] Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trumps National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. That needs to change going forward, she said. Do you want more expensive medicines?They already have been. I had a bunch of gold ETFs i sold last month for extra cash, so glad I did: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-suddenly-hammered-multi-billion-dollar-sale Gold went through the roof today. You missed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stargrunt6 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Hooray for globalization! Coronavirus: US dependence on China for pharmaceutical ingredients will hinder outbreak response, lawmakers are told US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In many cases China is the sole source of that material, Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill. [snip] Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trumps National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. That needs to change going forward, she said. Do you want more expensive medicines?They already have been. I had a bunch of gold ETFs i sold last month for extra cash, so glad I did: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-suddenly-hammered-multi-billion-dollar-sale Gold went through the roof today. You missed out.of course it did.... charliebrown.exe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Last week a particular brand of 3M P100 rated mask was $20 on Amazon. Now they're $50 and backordered through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burncycle360 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) https://twitter.com/eugenegu/status/1231637426235310081Some sort of drill for handling non-team playersHBO's Chernobyl follow-on is practically writing itself. Edited February 25, 2020 by Burncycle360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der Zeitgeist Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) One question I've been asking myself about the Italian outbreak exploding almost out of nowhere: What if the virus is basically everywhere already and just becomes visible in a particular region when someone is getting tested (because of recent travel, critical condition or whatever), and then everyone with fever is also getting mandatory testing? This might explain the situation in Italy and South Korea. Edited February 25, 2020 by Der Zeitgeist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 COVID 19 aka Coronavirus has an R0 of something like 1.4 to 6.6. Meaning that every person who has the disease is likely to infect anywhere from 1.4 to 6.6 people. Given that there's a symptomless period of about a week where you're also likely to infect others....this is a problem. Basic reproduction numberFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (Redirected from R naught) Jump to navigationJump to search Customary values of R0 of well-known infectious diseases[1] Disease Transmission R0 Measles Airborne 12–18 Diphtheria Saliva 6–7 Smallpox Airborne droplet 5–7 Polio Fecal–oral route 5–7 Rubella Airborne droplet 5–7 Mumps Airborne droplet 4–7 Pertussis Airborne droplet 5.5[2] HIV/AIDS Sexual contact 2–5 SARS Airborne droplet 2–5[3] COVID-19 Airborne droplet 1.4–6.6[4][5][6] Influenza(1918 pandemic strain) Airborne droplet 2–3[7] Ebola(2014 Ebola outbreak) Body fluids 1.5–2.5[8] MERS Airborne droplet 0.3-0.8[9] In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (sometimes called basic reproductive ratio, or incorrectly basic reproductive rate, and denoted R0, pronounced R nought or R zero[10]) of an infection can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.[11] The definition describes the state where no other individuals are infected or immunized (naturally or through vaccination). Some definitions, such as that of the Australian Department of Health, add absence of "any deliberate intervention in disease transmission".[12]The basic reproduction number is not to be confused with the effective reproduction number R which is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population, which does not have to be the uninfected state. By definition R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns.R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population. Furthermore R0 values are usually estimated from mathematical models, and the estimated values are dependent on the model used and values of other parameters. Thus values given in the literature make only sense in the given context and it is recommended not to use obsolete values or compare values based on different models.[13] R0 does not by itself give an estimate of how fast an infection spreads in the population.The most important uses of R0 are determining if an emerging infectious disease can spread in a population and determining what proportion of the population should be immunized through vaccination to eradicate a disease. In commonly used infection models, when R0 > 1 the infection will be able to start spreading in a population, but not if R0 < 1. Generally, the larger the value of R0, the harder it is to control the epidemic. For simple models, the proportion of the population that needs to be effectively immunized (meaning not susceptible to infection) to prevent sustained spread of the infection has to be larger than 1 − 1/R0.[14] Conversely, the proportion of the population that remains susceptible to infection in the endemic equilibrium is 1/R0.The basic reproduction number is affected by several factors including the duration of infectivity of affected patients, the infectiousness of the organism, and the number of susceptible people in the population that the affected patients are in contact with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panzermann Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) All joking aside, those drivers have far more courage than I could ever have. Not really. The passengers were all put in quarantine, but very very probably not infected. the guy in the suit did not have time to change clothes. in other news irony strikes and the vice-health minister if Iran has been infected: BNO Newsroom@BNODesk·7 Std.BREAKING: Iran's deputy health minister tests positive for coronavirus; he had previously looked unwell during a press conference https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232276183305400320 and a south korean official coordinating the local ncov outbreak jumped of a bridge: https://www.sedaily.com/NewsView/1YZ25XSKC3 Edited February 25, 2020 by Panzermann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burncycle360 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/0-9, apparently no fatalities. No idea how many in that age bracket confirmed infected, but even statistically there should be a few, even if only due to some underlying comorbidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stargrunt6 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 ShortFatOtaku has some really good updates on Coronavirus: https://youtu.be/u_HmkSxaztI So does Styxhexenhammer666... and his cats: https://youtu.be/Uo03uel1ZWo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DKTanker Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ 0-9, apparently no fatalities. No idea how many in that age bracket confirmed infected, but even statistically there should be a few, even if only due to some underlying comorbidity It's as if something about the onset of puberty makes the human organism more vulnerable to the virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucklucky Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 The values up to 39 are also quite low, even 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mobius Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ 0-9, apparently no fatalities. No idea how many in that age bracket confirmed infected, but even statistically there should be a few, even if only due to some underlying comorbidityIt's as if something about the onset of puberty makes the human organism more vulnerable to the virus.I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. There may be other factors involved. The sample is not that large. It's usually the kids that bring it back from school to infect the family. But, China may be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DB Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Italy as a secondary source is becoming a problem for Europe. The UK health advice for travellers returning from North Italyis to self isolate if you have any symptoms, and if you've been to Lombardy or Veneto(?) , to self isolate even if you have no symptoms. I also heard that less than 50% of workers in China are at work at the moment. I can hear "recession" on the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mobius Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 As so many supply chains originate something from China many products will be in short supply. OK, the just-in-time inventory supply system has a fatal flaw. So those that implemented it should be suffer the consequenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougRichards Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 No 2020 Olympics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soren Ras Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 As so many supply chains originate something from China many products will be in short supply. OK, the just-in-time inventory supply system has a fatal flaw. So those that implemented it should be suffer the consequenses. This will certainly clarify a lot of critical supply chain flaws of the globalized world in a way that no table top exercise ever would. I expect a lot of "Huh?" moments in the coming months as production issues even in areas you thought you had local production capacity for, on account of some minor but critical component being out of supply. Ensuring full local manufacturing capability for many things is suddenly going to become a lot more attractive. Whether that will manage to counteract the drive to cut costs is another matter and will depend on how bad things get before the immediate crisis passes. Interesting times just keep coming. --Soren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmgill Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 A lot of electronic components are going to become into very short supply. Cheap chinese goods are already drying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DougRichards Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 (edited) As so many supply chains originate something from China many products will be in short supply. OK, the just-in-time inventory supply system has a fatal flaw. So those that implemented it should be suffer the consequenses. This will certainly clarify a lot of critical supply chain flaws of the globalized world in a way that no table top exercise ever would. I expect a lot of "Huh?" moments in the coming months as production issues even in areas you thought you had local production capacity for, on account of some minor but critical component being out of supply. Ensuring full local manufacturing capability for many things is suddenly going to become a lot more attractive. Whether that will manage to counteract the drive to cut costs is another matter and will depend on how bad things get before the immediate crisis passes. Interesting times just keep coming. --Soren I have just ordered about AUS 1400 dollars of stuff to get us and a neighbour through the initial stages of this. (Pet food, 'care products', toilet paper etc etc etc) Edited February 26, 2020 by DougRichards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim the Tank Nut Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 protective masks are becoming limited in availability in the automotive refinish business. Part of that is because the supplies are being purchased for medical reasons and part because the manufacturing in China is reduced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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