Covid-19 Pandemic

[Nobu]

Drove out to Costco more out of curiosity than need for meat and paper towels yesterday in bulk, and noticed pretty much the same. Not a lot of empty shelves, and a superabundance of canned goods. Not seeing signs of panic-buying/hoarding (yet) either.

 

Maybe America and Americans will ride out the urge to do so.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Nobu

[Skywalkre]

My take-away is that people aren't panic-buying/hording yet. Maybe they won't.

Actually, sounds like it might be starting. After the announcement of the first death my mom went to her local Costco. She said they were out of toilet paper and water... which is remarkable considering the dozens and dozens of pallets of the stuff they have out all the time. Some quick google-fu turned up this. Sounds like it isn't just local.

[Skywalkre]

 

 

A coworker is sick. lets call him Bob. Bob gets sick and might have COVID 19...he goes to his doctor and tests positive. Should work be able to tell it's staff, hey, go get checked if you show any symptoms and if you had contact with Bob.

 

Who told work that Bob tested for anything specific? Work only knows what Bob tells them, and yes, if Bob tells them that he tested positive for a contagious disease, work should notify the entire staff and anybody else with whom Bob might have come in contact. Moreover, should Bob tell work that he tested positive for a contagious disease, work should tell Bob not to return until cleared by doctor.

In a more realistic scenario Bob is feeling sick possibily with Covid 19 but Bob is barely employed after his hours have been cut due to supply shortages he does not have enough hours or earn enough to qualify for medical insurance. Does Bob work sick till he has no choice but work till he has to go to emergency or some other poor co worker has to do the same before one of them is confirmed with Vivid 19. That's the probable scenario what is going to play out when it gets out into the real world.

 

This is the bit I wonder about. Someone mentioned earlier about the economic impact and how some businesses can ride this out in a worst-case scenario... but then you have the smaller businesses where if folks avoid going out once everything is clear they don't go back out to eat out more often or get more haircuts. How well can these small businesses ride out several weeks of highly reduced foot traffic?

 

Then there's the bit above about your average worker. Many don't have sick time for various reasons. Most live paycheck to paycheck. It's actually kind of insulting to hear on the news comments about people need to plan to work from home when so few Americans actually have that option. If the virus goes big will we see a massive spike in bankruptcy filings from the folks who couldn't afford the doctor/hospital bills or lost wages from having to miss work (or being forced to)?

[JasonJ]

US bans travel to some parts of ROK and Italy.

The US government is advising Americans not to travel to specific areas of South Korea and Italy where the new coronavirus continues to spread.

 

The administration of President Donald Trump raised its travel advisories for those areas on Saturday to the highest level, "Do Not Travel."

 

It also says it will ask the governments of South Korea and Italy for more stringent testing of people traveling to the United States before they leave.

 

It further says it will deny entry to people who have been in Iran within the past 14 days.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200301_12/amp.html

[Nobu]

 

My take-away is that people aren't panic-buying/hording yet. Maybe they won't.

Actually, sounds like it might be starting. After the announcement of the first death my mom went to her local Costco. She said they were out of toilet paper and water... which is remarkable considering the dozens and dozens of pallets of the stuff they have out all the time. Some quick google-fu turned up this. Sounds like it isn't just local.

 

 

Interesting--West Coast?

[JasonJ]

34 deaths in Italy so far. Most have been 80+ and/or medical conditions. All were Italian citizens. Confirmed cases (maybe including exaggeration?) near 1,700.

 

Italy saw the biggest surge in the number of confirmed coronavirus cases since the outbreak began with the total reaching almost 1,700 on Sunday - almost 600 more than on Saturday. The death toll reached 34. Here's the latest news. (This article is not behind a paywall.)

 

The number of cases of the new coronavirus in Italy was almost at 1,700, the health ministry said on Sunday, with the death toll rising by five to 34 in the past 24 hours.

 

The number of cases has reached 1,689 since the start of the epidemic just over a week ago, up from 888 on Friday and 1,100 on Saturday.

 

The jump in the number of cases on Sunday represents the biggest 24-hour surge since the outbreak began.

 

That number includes around 60 people who had been infected but are now fully recovered.

 

On Saturday Angelo Borrelli, head of Italy's civil protection department said only around half of the number of confirmed infections were clinical.

 

The non-clinical cases have few or no symptoms, and are not in hospital but in isolation at home.

 

Official figures said 105 people were receiving intensive care hospital treatment as of Saturday.

 

80 of the most serious cases are in the northern Lombardy region, which is at the centre of the outbreak.

 

All the deaths have been recorded in the three northern regions of Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, the health ministry's figures showed.

 

Those who have died are all Italian citizens, and the majority of the fatalities were in the northern region of Lombardy, which is the centre of the recent outbreak.

 

Most of the victims who have died were elderly, many over the age of 80. Some of them had underlying health conditions including cancer and were already in hospital when the virus was detected.

 

Italy has seen a huge surge in the number of cases in the last 10 days and the country highest number of people with the virus in Europe, and the highest death toll.

 

It has also been a point of contagion with many cases in other countries involving people who returned home after travelling in infection-hit areas of northern Italy.

 

Italian authorities have urged calm whilst taking action, sometimes draconian, to halt the spread of the virus.

 

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte urged people "not to give in to panic and follow the advice of health authorities".

 

For the last week more than 50,000 people have been confined to 10 towns in Lombardy and one in Veneto - a drastic measure taken to halt the spread of the disease.

 

Italian government ministers have stressed that Italy remains safe to visit, as most of the country remains unaffected by the virus.

 

The number of cases of infection reported has risen steadily each day, though Italian researchers said on Friday that did not mean the virus was spreading.

 

Most cases are believed to be people who had caught it previously, but had not been tested until now.

 

According to the World Health Organisation 80 percent of those who are infected with the virus only suffer mild symptoms such as a headache or soar throat

 

Around five percent end up in a critical condition.

 

How can I protect myself?

 

You should take the same precautions in Italy that you would anywhere else:

 

・Wash hands thoroughly and often with soap and water, especially after coughing and sneezing or before eating.

・Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth, especially with unwashed hands.

・Cover your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing.

Avoid close contact with people who have symptoms of respiratory illness.

・Wear a mask if you suspect you are ill, or if you are assisting someone else who is ill.

・Clean off surfaces with alcohol- or chlorine-based disinfectants.

 

https://www.thelocal.it/20200301/coronavirus-cases-italy-latest-numbers/amp

[Nobu]

 

 

 

A coworker is sick. lets call him Bob. Bob gets sick and might have COVID 19...he goes to his doctor and tests positive. Should work be able to tell it's staff, hey, go get checked if you show any symptoms and if you had contact with Bob.

 

Who told work that Bob tested for anything specific? Work only knows what Bob tells them, and yes, if Bob tells them that he tested positive for a contagious disease, work should notify the entire staff and anybody else with whom Bob might have come in contact. Moreover, should Bob tell work that he tested positive for a contagious disease, work should tell Bob not to return until cleared by doctor.

In a more realistic scenario Bob is feeling sick possibily with Covid 19 but Bob is barely employed after his hours have been cut due to supply shortages he does not have enough hours or earn enough to qualify for medical insurance. Does Bob work sick till he has no choice but work till he has to go to emergency or some other poor co worker has to do the same before one of them is confirmed with Vivid 19. That's the probable scenario what is going to play out when it gets out into the real world.

 

This is the bit I wonder about. Someone mentioned earlier about the economic impact and how some businesses can ride this out in a worst-case scenario... but then you have the smaller businesses where if folks avoid going out once everything is clear they don't go back out to eat out more often or get more haircuts. How well can these small businesses ride out several weeks of highly reduced foot traffic?

 

Then there's the bit above about your average worker. Many don't have sick time for various reasons. Most live paycheck to paycheck. It's actually kind of insulting to hear on the news comments about people need to plan to work from home when so few Americans actually have that option. If the virus goes big will we see a massive spike in bankruptcy filings from the folks who couldn't afford the doctor/hospital bills or lost wages from having to miss work (or being forced to)?

 

 

There will likely be some type of federal relief program developed to mitigate both contingencies. Agree that working from home simply is not an option for most.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Doesn't that thread basically outline the best case scenario is happening? It looks like it's been spreading unawares up in Washington for over a month, there's possibly hundreds who have or have had it, and we have all of one fatality from a man who had underlying health issues.

 

I guess the clusters will grow pretty quickly when systematic testing finally starts in the US, yes. This week, more labs will start testing as soon as the new test kits are coming online, so the case counts will almost certainly go up a lot. Finally turning on the lights, so to speak.

 

BTW, NextStrain is a nice online tool that shows a kind of "family tree" of the different strains of SARS-CoV 2 that had their data uploaded there so far. You can use it to show common ancestors between cases in different countries, suggesting how the virus travelled around the world.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Edited March 2, 2020 by Der Zeitgeist

[Corinthian]

I am going to enjoy seeing anti-vaxxers either protest against being injected by a COVID-19 vaccine, or swallow up their pride and accept a COVID-19 vaccine. It's going to be entertaining seeing their stupid ideology work against them.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Corinthian

[Martin M]

well, they can always go get a vaccine without getting off the high horse, without anyone knowing, and continue to induce their disciples to refuse vaccine and then let them get sick and die

[RETAC21]

I am going to enjoy seeing anti-vaxxers either protest against being injected by a COVID-19 vaccine, or swallow up their pride and accept a COVID-19 vaccine. It's going to be entertaining seeing their stupid ideology work against them.

 

You don't need anti-vaxxers to be dumb, roughly half of the population at risk from flu (risk groups, health workers) won't get vaccinated.

[Ssnake]

Hong Kong airport is probably an absolute ghost town compared to normal operations. Sure, there's people around, but not the 200,000 that should be the daily average. Right now I can see about nine other people around me; when we disembarked the jet I saw definitely more airport staff than passengers other than those on the same flight.

[Rick]

The Chinese flu -- aka COVID-19 -- not a factor in my area, nor from what I can tell, in the rest of Indiana.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Rick

[LT Ducky]

Just to put things in perspective.

 

Average U S Automobile accident deaths 100 per DAY.

 

Plain old run - of - the - mill flu deaths in 2017 = 60,000 +-

[Rick]

Just to put things in perspective.

 

Average U S Automobile accident deaths 100 per DAY.

 

Plain old run - of - the - mill flu deaths in 2017 = 60,000 +-

Well stated. What is appalling is the news media and Democrats trying to make this "Trumps Katrina."

[JasonJ]

Well of course the flu has already reached all cities and saturated them. 60,000 deaths out of an estimated 45,000,000 infections.

 

As of now, the coronavirus is at about 3,000 deaths out of about 100,000 infections. If that ratio is brought up to 45,000,000 infections, then the deaths would be 1,350,000. I think the the flu is more than enough. Car deaths each year looks small with its 35,000 deaths a year.

[DKTanker]

I am going to enjoy seeing anti-vaxxers either protest against being injected by a COVID-19 vaccine, or swallow up their pride and accept a COVID-19 vaccine. It's going to be entertaining seeing their stupid ideology work against them.

More and more it looks like any other seasonal flu though perhaps more easily communicable. Less than 50% of Adults in the USA were vaccinated prior to the 2018-2019 flu season, so let's look at some US statistics to keep things in perspective.

 

Estimated illnesses 65.5M

Went to doctor 35.5M

Hospitalized 490K

Deaths 34.2K

Confirmed Deaths <18 yo 146

Est Deaths < 18 yo 480

 

That's a bit under 1% morbidity for known cases, less than half of that against the number of estimated cases. I think that is quite close to what is currently being experienced outside of China and Iran.

[DKTanker]

Well of course the flu has already reached all cities and saturated them. 60,000 deaths out of an estimated 45,000,000 infections.

 

As of now, the coronavirus is at about 3,000 deaths out of about 100,000 infections. If that ratio is brought up to 45,000,000 infections, then the deaths would be 1,350,000. I think the the flu is more than enough. Car deaths each year looks small with its 35,000 deaths a year.

Who had 60k deaths to 45M infections? That's well over 2x what the US experienced last year.

 

Those 3000 dead include how many in China and Iran? Question we should ask is why those two countries have such an absurdly high death rate compared to everyone else.

[Mobius]

 

I am going to enjoy seeing anti-vaxxers either protest against being injected by a COVID-19 vaccine, or swallow up their pride and accept a COVID-19 vaccine. It's going to be entertaining seeing their stupid ideology work against them.

More and more it looks like any other seasonal flu though perhaps more easily communicable. Less than 50% of Adults in the USA were vaccinated prior to the 2018-2019 flu season, so let's look at some US statistics to keep things in perspective.

 

Estimated illnesses 65.5M

Went to doctor 35.5M

Hospitalized 490K

Deaths 34.2K

Confirmed Deaths <18 yo 146

Est Deaths < 18 yo 480

 

That's a bit under 1% morbidity for known cases, less than half of that against the number of estimated cases. I think that is quite close to what is currently being experienced outside of China and Iran.

It looks to be very stratified. Under 18 years it has about the same mortality as the flu. Overall it is about 0.4-0.6% about 4 x the flu. But as in the Coronavirus Princess they found 80+ years it is about 10%.

 

Seems the CDC screwed the pooch on the testing kits. They sent out too few and they didn't work. They didn't get any second sources going before finding this out. The US lost 3 weeks in preparedness with their mess.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Mobius

[JasonJ]

 

Well of course the flu has already reached all cities and saturated them. 60,000 deaths out of an estimated 45,000,000 infections.

 

As of now, the coronavirus is at about 3,000 deaths out of about 100,000 infections. If that ratio is brought up to 45,000,000 infections, then the deaths would be 1,350,000. I think the the flu is more than enough. Car deaths each year looks small with its 35,000 deaths a year.

Who had 60k deaths to 45M infections? That's well over 2x what the US experienced last year.

 

Those 3000 dead include how many in China and Iran? Question we should ask is why those two countries have such an absurdly high death rate compared to everyone else.

 

DKTanker, the numbers I put up were to correlate with the 60,000 by LT Ducky. They are the CDC stats for 2017-2018. Your numbers, at least for deaths and hospitalizations, appear to match the same source for 2018-2019.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

[BansheeOne]

Got the first case in Berlin, a 22-year-old man who had suffered from flu symptoms for two weeks, but only was admitted to hospital Sunday when he developed a fever and disorientation after a vaccination for an upcoming trip. He tested negative for influenza and was discharged after initial treatment. However, the hospital is now routinely testing possible influenza cases for COVID-19, too, and that test came back positive late in the evening.

 

About 60 contacts have been identified so far, including the complete ER shift who handled him without protection (and thus are now out for the next 14 days) and his parents from NRW. The latter are a possible vector from that state's large cluster, but so far asymptomatic. Maybe we'll finally get some proper panic buying here now; on Saturday I was disappointed to find no empty shelves at the supermarket across the street from me.

[JasonJ]

As for cases and deaths while factoring out China and Iran, there are 91 deaths total so far out of 8,316 cases. So if taking the cases to 45,000,000, then it makes for 492,424 deaths. Far lower than the previous crude ratio that included China and Iran, but still far higher than flu deaths.

[JasonJ]

Got the first case in Berlin, a 22-year-old man who had suffered from flu symptoms for two weeks, but only was admitted to hospital Sunday when he developed a fever and disorientation after a vaccination for an upcoming trip. He tested negative for influenza and was discharged after initial treatment. However, the hospital is now routinely testing possible influenza cases for COVID-19, too, and that test came back positive late in the evening.

 

About 60 contacts have been identified so far, including the complete ER shift who handled him without protection (and thus are now out for the next 14 days) and his parents from NRW. The latter are a possible vector from that state's large cluster, but so far asymptomatic. Maybe we'll finally get some proper panic buying here now; on Saturday I was disappointed to find no empty shelves at the supermarket across the street from me.

Beware of toilet paper shortage

[Mobius]

 

Got the first case in Berlin, a 22-year-old man who had suffered from flu symptoms for two weeks, but only was admitted to hospital Sunday when he developed a fever and disorientation after a vaccination for an upcoming trip. He tested negative for influenza and was discharged after initial treatment. However, the hospital is now routinely testing possible influenza cases for COVID-19, too, and that test came back positive late in the evening.

 

About 60 contacts have been identified so far, including the complete ER shift who handled him without protection (and thus are now out for the next 14 days) and his parents from NRW. The latter are a possible vector from that state's large cluster, but so far asymptomatic. Maybe we'll finally get some proper panic buying here now; on Saturday I was disappointed to find no empty shelves at the supermarket across the street from me.

Beware of toilet paper shortage

 

This has merit. In New York state ppl say at Costco they could not get a parking spot. More crowded than Christmas. People were buying things out like TP and rice packets.

 

I didn't appreciate Trump and Pence saying there were very few cases and not to panic. We have the best medical system in the world so they will handle it. It is not inevitable that there will be more cases. Going on like that is Bagdad Bob territory.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Mobius

[DB]

Venezuela here we come!

 

When comparing the China statistics with the RoW, remember that there will be a significant lag in deaths for RoW as the infections started later. It may also be possible that interventions are more intense as the seriousness of the illness is known now. The death rate in China has slowed considerably in the last few days.