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I'm willing to cut our dear leaders some slack, up to a point.

The cacophony of voices is what you get from federalized forms of government combined with a free press - although the lack of comms discipline, while entirely predictable, is still grating on everybody's nerve.

That they were caught pants down has two aspects, it's partly inheritance of the sins of the past (something to deal with after the crisis is over), the inability to quickly adapt to an unforeseen situation (a personality deficit to weed out with the next elections), the unwillingness to do what's necessary by adhering to pandemic crisis textbooks and "war plans" (also a matter for elections, but also something that the press should cover more (but they don't)); rather, they decide to wing it, and botch it everytime of course.

The naivité of EU leaders last summer when failing to identify the need of ramping up production with taxpayer money is understandable but not excusable. I'm not sure by how much production could have been ramped up faster - probably not that much more, since the bottleneck was experienced personnel, not necessarily money - but simply assuming that it would be done exhibits a non-crisis mindset among the bureaucrats when the facts all pointed in the other direction.

The failure to recognize that the only financially viable way out of the pandemic would be mass vaccinations, even if it was a bit of a long shot, is inexcusable for any leading politician in the field; credit where it's due, Trump at least got that right. The fixation on extended lockdowns as the only countermeasure is testament to a lack of imagination and a detachment from reality that is simply unacceptable. If you tell the people that they can't earn money, there should be a mechanism to reduce payments to government officials, civil servants, and parliament at the same time to instill the needed sense of urgency. It'll never happen of course, but it's the only way to make sure that those in lead also have skin in the game.

And in Germany, we have the special problem of overanalyzing the finer points of a vaccination strategy, and losing the big picture in the process (which also makes successful communication in crisis a lot harder if not impossible).

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The sequence was about this:

Quote

Covid: Italy 'blocks' AstraZeneca vaccine shipment to Australia

Published 5 March

The Italian government has blocked the export of an Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine shipment to Australia.

The decision affects 250,000 doses of the vaccine produced at an AstraZeneca facility in Italy.

Italy is the first EU country to use the bloc's new regulations allowing exports to be stopped if the company providing the vaccines has failed to meet its obligations to the EU.

Australia said losing "one shipment" would not badly affect its rollout.

But it has asked the European Commission, which reportedly backs Italy's move, to review the decision.

AstraZeneca is on track to provide only 40% of the agreed supply to member states in the first three months of the year. It has cited production problems for the shortfall.

In January, then Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte described delays in vaccine supplies by both AstraZeneca and Pfizer as "unacceptable" and accused the companies of violating their contracts.

[...]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56279202

 

Quote

March 12, 202 11:59 AM Updated 6 days ago

AstraZeneca further cuts EU vaccine supply target to 30 million: document

By Francesco Guarascio

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - AstraZeneca cut its supply forecast of COVID-19 vaccine to the European Union in the first quarter to about 30 million doses, a third of its contractual obligations and a 25% drop from pledges made last month, a document seen by Reuters shows.

The shortfall is a further blow to EU’s vaccination plans already being hampered by repeated delays in supply and a slow rollout in some nations.

The AstraZeneca document, shared with EU officials and dated March 10 [emphasis mine], shows that the company now expects to deliver 30.1 million doses by the end of March, and another 20 million in April.

On Feb. 25, AstraZeneca boss Pascal Soriot told the European Parliament that the company would try to deliver 40 million doses by the end of March.

The document shows that on Feb. 24, the Anglo-Swedish company had estimated a supply of only 34 million doses to the EU for the January to March period, well below its contracted target of 90 million doses.

The new cut follows a decision last week by Italy and the European Commission to block a shipment of AstraZeneca vaccines from Italy to Australia, in the first application of an EU mechanism that allows the bloc to refuse export requests from vaccine makers that do not comply with EU supply contracts.

A spokesman for AstraZeneca declined to comment on Friday.

A person familiar with the situation said that the increased deliveries the company had expected for the first quarter did not materialise because of difficulties in moving vaccines through global supply chains.

The United States, from where AstraZeneca expected to partly supply the EU market, told the EU that it would not export AstraZeneca shots in the near future, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing EU officials.

The company had said its initial supply cuts were caused by production problems in the EU.

[...]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-astrazeneca-idUSKBN2B402Y?

 

Quote

Press Release | 11 March | 2021 Brussels

Commission extends transparency and authorisation mechanism for exports of COVID-19 vaccines

The Commission has today extended until end of June the transparency and authorisation mechanism for COVID-19 vaccine exports. This follows persistent delays in some of the deliveries of vaccines to the EU.

[...]

EU number one supplier of COVID-19 vaccines to the world

The EU continues to be the leading provider of vaccines around the world. Six weeks into the existence of this mechanism, 249 export requests to 31 different countries* have been granted for a total of 34,090,267 doses, as they did not threaten the contractual engagements between the EU and the vaccine producers. Only one export request was not granted. The main export destinations include the United Kingdom (with approximately 9.1 million doses), Canada (3.9 million), Mexico (3.1 million), Japan (2.7 million), Saudi Arabia (1.4 million), Hong Kong (1.3 million), Singapore (1 million), United States (1 million), Chile (0.9 million) and Malaysia (0.8 million).

[...]

*Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Hong Kong, Japan, Kuwait, Macao, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Oman, Panama, Peru, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States and Uruguay.

[...]

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_1121

 

Quote

Date 11.03.2021

COVID: Several European countries halt use of AstraZeneca vaccine

Denmark, Iceland and Norway have stopped administering the shot while Italy has banned the use of a batch of AstraZeneca doses as a precaution after an unconfirmed number of people developed blood clots.

Health authorities in Denmark, Norway and Iceland on Thursday suspended the use of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine after reports of blood clots among some people who had received the inoculation.

The Danish Health Authority on Thursday halted the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine for 14 days.

It follows reports of "serious cases of blood clots among vaccinated people," a statement read.

However, the authority stopped short of saying there was a direct link between the vaccine and the blood clots, "at the time being."

[...]

How many countries have suspended the jab?

Shortly after Denmark's announcement, Iceland and Norway followed suit and stopped administering the vaccine.

Italy also moved on Thursday to ban a batch of the AstraZeneca vaccine following reports "of some serious adverse effects." The country's medicine regulator stressed, however, that there was currently no established link between the alleged side-effects and the administration of doses.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-several-european-countries-halt-use-of-astrazeneca-vaccine/a-56835406

 

Quote

Major European nations suspend use of AstraZeneca vaccine

By FRANK JORDANS March 15, 202

BERLIN (AP) — A cascading number of European countries — including Germany, France, Italy and Spain — suspended use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine Monday over reports of dangerous blood clots in some recipients, though the company and international regulators say there is no evidence the shot is to blame.

AstraZeneca’s formula is one of three vaccines in use on the continent. But the escalating concern is another setback for the European Union’s vaccination drive, which has been plagued by shortages and other hurdles and is lagging well behind the campaigns in Britain and the U.S.

The EU’s drug regulatory agency called a meeting for Thursday to review experts’ findings on the AstraZeneca shot and decide whether action needs to be taken.

The furor comes as much of Europe is tightening restrictions on schools and businesses amid surging cases of COVID-19.

Germany’s health minister said the decision to suspend AstraZeneca shots was taken on the advice of the country’s vaccine regulator, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, which called for further investigation into seven cases of clots in the brains of people who had been vaccinated.

“Today’s decision is a purely precautionary measure,” Jens Spahn said.

French President Emmanuel Macron said his country will likewise stop dispensing the vaccine until at least Tuesday afternoon. Italy also announced a temporary ban, as did Spain, Portugal and Slovenia.

Other countries that have done so over the past few days include Denmark, which was the first, as well as Ireland, Thailand, the Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, Congo and Bulgaria. Canada and Britain are standing by the vaccine for now.

[...]

https://apnews.com/article/germany-suspends-astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clotting-0ab2c4fe13370c96c873e896387eb92f

 

Quote

EU threatens to halt Covid vaccine exports to UK unless it gets ‘fair share’

Ursula von der Leyen says bloc wants to see ‘reciprocity and proportionality’ in exports

Jon Henley Europe correspondent and Dan Sabbagh

Wed 17 Mar 2021 13.26 GMT

The EU is prepared to take exceptional steps to halt exports of Covid-19 vaccines to Britain and secure doses for its own citizens unless the UK starts shipping shots to the bloc, the European commission president has said.

[...]

Von der Leyen said the EU could trigger article 122 of the EU treaty, an emergency clause which would allow the bloc to take exceptional measures such as seizing production of vaccines and suspending intellectual property rights “if severe difficulties arise in the supply of certain products” to member states.

“All options are on the table,” she said. “We are in the crisis of the century. We have to make sure Europeans are vaccinated as soon as possible. Human lives, civil liberties and our economy are dependent on the speed of vaccination moving forward.”

Article 122 was last used during the oil crisis of the 1970s, she said.

Von der Leyen said the EU had received more than 300 requests for overseas vaccine shipments over the past six weeks and refused just one, and the bloc had exported 41m doses to 33 countries.

“This shows that Europe is trying to make international cooperation work,” she said. “But open roads run in both directions … It is hard to explain to our citizens why vaccines produced in the EU are going to other countries that are also producing vaccines, but hardly anything is coming back.”

Von der Leyen said the bloc had exported 10m doses to the UK in the past six weeks, making it “country number one as far as exports from the EU is concerned”.

But while the UK was producing AstraZeneca vaccines, and “there are even two sites in the UK that are in our contract for potential deliveries for the EU … we’re still waiting for doses to come from the UK. So this is an invitation for reciprocity.”

The majority of vaccines exported from the EU to the UK have been made by Pfizer, which distributes globally from its European production sites. The EU has blocked only one export request, a shipment of 250,000 Oxford/AstraZeneca doses from Italy to Australia.

[...]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/eu-threatens-to-halt-covid-vaccine-exports-to-uk-unless-it-gets-fair-share

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https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/03/mask_mandates_do_not_save_lives.html
 

Quote

 

States with a mask mandate: 13.0 deaths per 10,000 population.

States with no mask mandate: 12.6 deaths per 10,000 population.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Ivanhoe said:

Country A with areas without mask mandate 1.657 deaths per mil. Currently at around 4 deaths per mil per day

Country B with mask mandate 199 deaths per mil. Curently at around 1-2 deaths per mil per week.

Country B has a life expectancy 3 years longer than country A.

Thats why I love statistics, everyone is always right.  Left the countries anonymous so as not to offend sensibilities because for some people this is a very nationalistic subject.

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9 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

I note that there is a significant difference between cutting a target (second headline) and cutting a forecast (second content).

AZ has been expecting to provide fulfilment of contract supplies by bringing on capacity in India. This is behind schedule, and also a bit dubious given the scale of the task required to vaccinate Indians.

For what it's worth, the UK is surging vaccinations to get my age cohort a first dose but is anticipating much reduced supply for a month thereafter, for reasons various.

At least the EMA has reaffirmed its position on the blood clot issue. I suppose we'll find out if the 13 states that have suspended it are paying attention, and haven't terminally undermined this vaccine's standing in the eyes of the public.

Edited by DB
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Italy, France, Spain and Germany to resume vaccinations according to CNN. From what I heard earlier the shutdown in Germany came so suddenly, they had to throw some vaccine in doctors surgery's away.

France had announced another month long lockdown in Paris.

Edited by Stuart Galbraith
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My wife and I received the Johnson and Johnson vaccine yesterday. No discernible reactions to it as of yet.

The long-awaited Pharma Offensive in the battle of the human race against the pandemic has begun. Happy to play some small part in it.

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Researchers from Uni Greifswald working with the German medical regulatory body have found the likely mechanism of, and treatment for the blood clot issue. Basically, antibodies activating a wounding response of thrombocytes were found in the blood of patients. The results are not yet peer-reviewed, but use of AstraZeneca will resume with a warning added to prescription instructions that this condition may occur in rare cases among women under 55 (all but one of the now 13 cases in Germany fall into this group). People who develop severe leg pain or headaches five to 14 days after vaccination should see a doctor immediately. 

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On 3/8/2021 at 4:30 AM, Rick said:

Would you elaborate on the bolden part please. I'm not following the Chinese virus problem closely, but where are the numbers comparing Arizona to other states?

We're right up there near the top.  Last time I checked we were like 5th or 6th worst in the nation, barely behind places like NY which so many on here love to vilify, for deaths per capita... and that's living the R dream of weak enforcement and opening things up fairly quickly.

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On 3/18/2021 at 5:20 AM, Ivanhoe said:

That's a pretty weak article and conclusion.  Two massive issues I notice which the author doesn't address.

First, the US News article lists my state of AZ as not having a mask mandate (while oddly enough the pic in the AT link says we do).  Both are actually accurate... I'm pretty sure we've never had a state-issued mask mandate because basically every county and city authority issued one themselves.  (He also says mandates likely influence folks based on fear of repercussions... here in AZ, where mandates are local, I'm not really aware of any serious enforcement other than asking folks to leave an area/business if they don't comply).  The point, being, though, that I imagine it's not as simple in many states about whether there's been a mandate or not.

Second, many massive nationwide companies, like Walmart, require shoppers to wear masks regardless of local standards.  We've touched on how so many small businesses have shut down... in the last year if folks are going out to shop it's mostly in these nationwide chains that have had mask requirements the entire time.  You can look at local guidelines and see there's no mandate but if the majority of times folks leave their homes to do something they have to put on a mask to do it then effectively there is a mandate.  (A hilarious example of this in the last week was that bodycam vid out of TX where the Karen was refusing to wear a mask inside the bank and was subsequently arrested.)

In short... pretty sure you can't really draw any conclusions the way he's trying to.

Edited by Skywalkre
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SkywalkreOut of curiosity, have there been any studies done to your satisfaction of the effectiveness of mask vs no mask? It may seem like an odd question, but from my understanding many deaths attributed only to Covid, the patient had underlying health issues that Covid may have made worse. 

I've wondered on those disposable masks, how many folks re-use them and how many times the cloth masks get washed?

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There's been plenty of studies showing they work from my understanding.  The below quote is from the US News article in Ivanhoe's link:

Quote

According to a study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Kansas, following Gov. Laura Kelly's July mask mandate on a county-by-county basis, the 24 counties with mandatory mask mandates saw an overall decrease in COVID-19 cases, while the 81 counties that opted out of the mask mandate continued to see increases in cases. Similarly, research conducted by Vanderbilt University's Department of Health Policy in October found that COVID-19 death tolls were twice as high in Tennessee counties without mask mandates as compared to counties with directives in place. Gov. Bill Lee has not initiated a mask mandate in the state, deferring to local leaders.

At this point I don't see any reason to question the effectiveness or strategy of wearing masks, to be completely honest.

The issue, and AZ sadly showcases this, is that masks were never the be-all and end-all.  They were supposed to be used in conjunction with social distancing, avoiding large groups, proper hand washing, and the closure of certain businesses that don't work with these guidelines.  If you were to walk around the Valley right now you wouldn't see any of those other precautions being taken coupled to a third of folks wearing their masks around their chin at best.  Shock, surprise we're one of the worst places in the country as far as deaths go.  /facepalm

On top of this any criticism of masks has to be tempered against when they're being measured.  That quote above is highlighting initial efforts when many of the COVID precautions were being followed.  If one were to look around now at mask effectiveness, when other precautions are being ignored and many folks aren't even wearing them correctly, then yes you could argue they don't work... but they weren't expected to work alone and when only a small number aren't such snowflakes and actually bother to wear them correctly.

As for who COVID is killing I'm not following that data as closely but it appears the one underlying condition that really puts one at risk is age.  Otherwise, yes, underlying issues are still a concern but sadly darker skin complexion has turned out to be as well (though the argument there is an underlying condition - Vit D deficiency). 

The whole thing is just a tragedy... from the dead to the ones who don't care.  Just... ugh...

Edited by Skywalkre
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7 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

There's been plenty of studies showing they work from my understanding.  The below quote is from the US News article in Ivanhoe's link:

At this point I don't see any reason to question the effectiveness or strategy of wearing masks, to be completely honest.

The issue, and AZ sadly showcases this, is that masks were never the be-all and end-all.  They were supposed to be used in conjunction with social distancing, avoiding large groups, proper hand washing, and the closure of certain businesses that don't work with these guidelines.  If you were to walk around the Valley right now you wouldn't see any of those other precautions being taken coupled to a third of folks wearing their masks around their chin at best.  Shock, surprise we're one of the worst places in the country as far as deaths go.  /facepalm

On top of this any criticism of masks has to be tempered against when they're being measured.  That quote above is highlighting initial efforts when many of the COVID precautions were being followed.  If one were to look around now at mask effectiveness, when other precautions are being ignored and many folks aren't even wearing them correctly, then yes you could argue they don't work... but they weren't expected to work alone and when only a small number aren't such snowflakes and actually bother to wear them correctly.

As for who COVID is killing I'm not following that data as closely but it appears the one underlying condition that really puts one at risk is age.  Otherwise, yes, underlying issues are still a concern but sadly darker skin complexion has turned out to be as well (though the argument there is an underlying condition - Vit D deficiency). 

The whole thing is just a tragedy... from the dead to the ones who don't care.  Just... ugh...

Weird thing for me, my experience in AZ over the past year has been limited to four days in Tucson over Xmas break, and everybody I saw was masked-up/social distancing about as much as NorCal folks -- they seemed to be taking it extremely seriously. Maybe b/c Tucson has a lot of senior citizens and a lot of crunchy outdoorsy types compared to Phoenix?

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11 hours ago, DB said:

I don't think I need to add a commentary, save to say they the UK has not, to my knowledge, threatened to do this.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/pfizer-eu-covid-vaccine-threats-uk-b925289.html?amp

Von Der Leyen is out of her depth, and blaming her screw ups on everyone else. Which hilariously is what generations of European politicians have (rightly) been accusing British politicians of doing.

When Northern Ireland is using AZ and Southern Ireland isnt, is when you really appreciate how much of a balls up the EU has made of the whole wretched affair.

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On 3/20/2021 at 3:15 PM, Angrybk said:

Weird thing for me, my experience in AZ over the past year has been limited to four days in Tucson over Xmas break, and everybody I saw was masked-up/social distancing about as much as NorCal folks -- they seemed to be taking it extremely seriously. Maybe b/c Tucson has a lot of senior citizens and a lot of crunchy outdoorsy types compared to Phoenix?

Who knows.  Tucson is a strongly D town whereas I live in the heart of R territory in the NE Valley.  That likely played a role.

Whatever the reason an experience I had a month ago when we were posting record high death counts highlights how around here no one gives any fucks.  I was on vacation, up late gaming, and decided I was going to treat myself to some cupcakes out of this artisan shop near Fashion Square.  It's late at night (for me at least), dark, so I can clearly see into every restaurant as I drive down there.  They were all crowded... no distancing... no partial capacity.  As I get to Fashion Square proper which is near Old Town and the bar scene the streets are crowded, folks are walking around or zipping by on golf carts, and not a mask in sight.  All restaurants and bars around there filled to the brim.  I park and walk up to the cupcake shop.  They have a sign on the front asking to respect a max occupancy of 2 people given COVID (it's a really small storefront).  There's two inside so I wait to go in.  A group of six walks up, no masks, and walks right inside.  Pissed off I cross the street to Fashion Square to grab some Shake Shack.  Inside maybe half the folks milling around have masks on even though there's a requirement posted to wear one if entering (kind of sad, but I guess it's typical for America, that you can go to a local Safeway and they'll actually enforce that rule but at a high-end place like Fashion Square they let the clientele do whatever they want).  For reference that morning I had received my daily news alert from the local talk radio station stating we had had 250 COVID deaths which was near a record for us.

I remember a few months ago CA was all in the news for the number of deaths there.  AZ is around 60% higher in deaths per capita.  We've basically been near the top since everything really blew up last summer.  We've known that (it's not like they haven't been talking about it around here).  From where I'm at in the state... no one cares anymore (and barely cared going back to last summer).

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Your experience in AZ was my experience in Herts back in August, with perhaps mask wearing indoors being a bit higher. I went into town one Saturday to get fresh vegetables at the open market and to get my hair cut...

Compliance with the rules and with common sense was so bad I haven't been back. I look like a blond version of Cousin It...

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4 hours ago, Skywalkre said:

Who knows.  Tucson is a strongly D town whereas I live in the heart of R territory in the NE Valley.  That likely played a role.

Whatever the reason an experience I had a month ago when we were posting record high death counts highlights how around here no one gives any fucks.  I was on vacation, up late gaming, and decided I was going to treat myself to some cupcakes out of this artisan shop near Fashion Square.  It's late at night (for me at least), dark, so I can clearly see into every restaurant as I drive down there.  They were all crowded... no distancing... no partial capacity.  As I get to Fashion Square proper which is near Old Town and the bar scene the streets are crowded, folks are walking around or zipping by on golf carts, and not a mask in sight.  All restaurants and bars around there filled to the brim.  I park and walk up to the cupcake shop.  They have a sign on the front asking to respect a max occupancy of 2 people given COVID (it's a really small storefront).  There's two inside so I wait to go in.  A group of six walks up, no masks, and walks right inside.  Pissed off I cross the street to Fashion Square to grab some Shake Shack.  Inside maybe half the folks milling around have masks on even though there's a requirement posted to wear one if entering (kind of sad, but I guess it's typical for America, that you can go to a local Safeway and they'll actually enforce that rule but at a high-end place like Fashion Square they let the clientele do whatever they want).  For reference that morning I had received my daily news alert from the local talk radio station stating we had had 250 COVID deaths which was near a record for us.

I remember a few months ago CA was all in the news for the number of deaths there.  AZ is around 60% higher in deaths per capita.  We've basically been near the top since everything really blew up last summer.  We've known that (it's not like they haven't been talking about it around here).  From where I'm at in the state... no one cares anymore (and barely cared going back to last summer).

Out of curiosity, do you know if Arizona has a illegal immigrant problem? Just curious if there is a correlation between this and Covid?

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Sobering first-hand reports from the Arizona front.

Speaking of masks, it was my wife who got me into the habit of wearing a disposable under a cloth. The outer cloth mask was a matter of appearance for her (she does not like the way the blue disposables look), with the compression of the cloth mask being a bonus.

Disposables: discarded and never re-used

Cloths: worn once before going into a separate bag in the laundry bin

Edited by Nobu
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Nice idea by your wife, Nobu.

In other news, the US preferred to conduct its own independent trial of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which has now concluded:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/22/astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-79percent-effective-in-us-trial.html

I say "concluded", but in practice monitoring of most of the participants in trials like these have continuing followups for some time after the first formal report. 

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