Covid-19 Pandemic

[seahawk]

15 minutes ago, Stargrunt6 said:

Herd immunity has to be "durable" though.  And it isn't because it ends up being self-terminable.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772167

This is true and nobody knows how long immunity lasts. Something over 6 months seems likely, but how long after that is not proven yet. I am also sceptical of using the R0 factor based on real life outbreaks, as all came with additional measures to reduce the spread. So I would be sceptical that 60% is enough for COVID if you want to go back to a fully normal situation. I have read that most scientists see 70%+ as needed.

[rmgill]

On 11/21/2020 at 12:05 AM, DB said:

That's the way it looked for a week or two in the UK, too. I posted a chart a few days ago showing that deaths do rise, but as a ratio of deaths to positive tests is far lower. the overall ratio of deaths to positive test results has dropped from 15.7% in April to about 3.75% now.

Nevertheless, deaths are rising again to average over 400 per day.

What are deahs per day due to other similar comorbidity illnesses?

The point is that COVID is in some respects going to supplant the other things that would kill someone who has advanced heart disease, COPD, respiratory illnesses, hypertension and diabetes. 

It's my understanding that you often die of complications of heart disease or some such along with say cold, flu, pneumonia, etc. Sometimes it's congestive heart failure, sometimes it's a companion illness that hits you twice with the heart disease already. 

[rmgill]

On 11/21/2020 at 3:36 AM, Stefan Fredriksson said:

Unfortunately people are stupid. Earlier this year I was kind of proud that most people I saw socially distanced. But that was probably at start of summer when things looked bright. Now it is sometimes like way too many live in denial, despite infection-rates and deaths are going up. Point in case - bars must stop selling alcohol at 10 pm, and close 10:30. Some bar(s) circumvent this by closing.... and then later the same night opening up again, only selling alcohol-free or low-alcohol beer. I get it that it's business, but still beyond stupid.

What's the magical thing about cutting off at 10pm? 

If you concentrate when people have to be there by to get a drink, you're going to increase the concentration of people and reduce the social distancing. Instead of being able to go get a drink later, they're all going to rush over before 10 or so to get one last end of evening after work drink. 

This is like reducing the number of people coming into town due to limiting business and then turning off subways and elevators because they're not used, you're concentrating people again. 

[Ivanhoe]

2 hours ago, Stargrunt6 said:

Herd immunity has to be "durable" though.  And it isn't because it ends up being self-terminable.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772167

Quote

Assuming no population immunity and that all individuals are equally susceptible and equally infectious, the herd immunity threshold for SARS-CoV-2 would be expected to range between 50% and 67% in the absence of any interventions.

Lot of assumptions.

And it occurs to me that its unclear concerning the target CFR; are we going for eradication, or merely lowering death levels to the levels of seasonal virii?

The above paper cites this work;

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1

Quote

There are four species of seasonal coronaviruses—HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1—that all can cause respiratory tract infections but are otherwise genetically and biologically dissimilar. They belong to two distinct taxonomic genera and use different receptor molecules with varying host cell tropism¹. Given this large variation, we hypothesize that characteristics shared by these four seasonal coronaviruses, such as the duration of protective immunity, are representative of all human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the duration of protection from seasonal coronavirus reinfections.

I have no problem with estimating the immunity duration of those four HCovs, but its a bit of a leap to assert that natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is short-lived. Maybe, maybe not. One of the things not mentioned AFAICT in the paper is the demographics of the sample pop. Old? Young? Co-morbidities?

 

 

[Jeff]

 

Quote

 

Walmart Thanks Government For Completely Obliterating Their Small Business Competition

In an open letter addressed to state officials, Walmart leadership expressed gratefulness to the government for inflating their sales and stock prices while completely pulverizing their small business competition. 

"Yeah, we know 2020 has been tough for the little people," said one board member while shoveling piles of cash into his vault. "But it's been super great for us! No longer do we have to worry about the baker down the street or the family-owned hardware store next door taking away some of our business. The government just blew them up! We didn't even ask them to! Can you believe it? What luck!"

 

 

[Stargrunt6]

53 minutes ago, Ivanhoe said:

 

And it occurs to me that its unclear concerning the target CFR; are we going for eradication, or merely lowering death levels to the levels of seasonal virii?

 

 

 

That's what I think is even going on.  I'm looking at the graphs and the deaths don't get as high after a surge like before.  This could be due to extrinsic factors like better treatments, but we can't rule out intrinsic factors. Plus it's getting colder in this here hemisphere.

[Stargrunt6]

16 minutes ago, Jeff said:

 

 

in another forum, one member posted that his wife, who's a nurse, can't find work because they don't have enough money to hire people.  

Lockdowns and similar measures are just self-defeating.

[Stefan Fredriksson]

Have not read the exact reasoning about the stop of selling alcohol at 10 pm, and closing at 10:30. One reason is that the more you drink, the less good judgement you generally get.

I think this is more about sending a message, than getting a quantifiable drop in cases.

Those that are set on getting plastered after 10 pm will still find ways. I guess the target for the message are the ones going to restaurants and bars after work, or at least well before 10 pm.

[rmgill]

So, why not just ban alcohol? Why go for half measures? 

That'd send a message too!

[glappkaeft]

This is Sweden, banning alcohol in Sweden is just barely easier than banning alcohol in Russia...

[Der Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, glappkaeft said:

This is Sweden, banning alcohol in Sweden is just barely easier than banning alcohol in Russia...

When I was visiting Sweden, it felt as if alcohol was pretty much banned or at least unobtainable anyway. 😊

[Stuart Galbraith]

I was going to order some new masks on Amazon, has anyone got any thoughts on what type would offer the very best protection?

[Der Zeitgeist]

48 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

I was going to order some new masks on Amazon, has anyone got any thoughts on what type would offer the very best protection?

You probably won't be able to get "the very best protection", at least not at a reasonable price.

I've been using regular surgical masks at my workplace, where we have strict distancing and ventilation guidelines in place. Whenever I'm in more crowded and less ventilated settings like public transport or shopping, where the risk of encountering infected people is higher, I use various types of FFP3 masks. The best ones I had so far were the Dräger X-plore 1730+, they have a great fit with my face and aren't too bulky.

 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Der Zeitgeist

[Stefan Fredriksson]

14 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

When I was visiting Sweden, it felt as if alcohol was pretty much banned or at least unobtainable anyway. 😊

We don't serve German Communists.

[Stefan Fredriksson]

Random thoughts.

Mask wearing seems to have gone up a bit, but not much. Last time I counted people I saw outside, shops and on public transportations iirc mask wearers were less than 1%. My guesstimate now is possibly around 3-4%(?). A noticable increase, but still very few.

The collegues and friends that got sick in covid last winter, spring and summer, generally got much sicker than us catching it now. I have absolutely no data for this, more than what I hear and read. More testing is definately a part of it, but still. What is your experience on this?

[Stuart Galbraith]

40 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

You probably won't be able to get "the very best protection", at least not at a reasonable price.

I've been using regular surgical masks at my workplace, where we have strict distancing and ventilation guidelines in place. Whenever I'm in more crowded and less ventilated settings like public transport or shopping, where the risk of encountering infected people is higher, I use various types of FFP3 masks. The best ones I had so far were the Dräger X-plore 1730+, they have a great fit with my face and aren't too bulky.

 

Looks great, but arent the breath plug supposed to be a major no no?

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, Stuart Galbraith said:

Looks great, but arent the breath plug supposed to be a major no no?

Theoretically, a mask with an exhalation valve will allow unfiltered air to get out and potentially put other people at risk if you're infected, but with most regular masks, you get the same effect when the exhaled air escapes at the edge of the mask. In both cases, it won't spread out as widely, though, compared to not wearing a mask at all (especially when talking).

It's all a matter of reasonable risk reduction. You're not trying to protect yourself or others from a nerve agent, but from a virus, trying to keep the concentration in the ambient air as low as possible and reducing the amount of virus people will potentially inhale to a reasonable level.

[Der Zeitgeist]

35 minutes ago, Stefan Fredriksson said:

We don't serve German Communists.

Ha, the Systembolaget shops seemed pretty communist to me. All that was missing was Victory Gin. 😄

 

20 minutes ago, Stefan Fredriksson said:

The collegues and friends that got sick in covid last winter, spring and summer, generally got much sicker than us catching it now. I have absolutely no data for this, more than what I hear and read. More testing is definately a part of it, but still. What is your experience on this?

Both of the infections in my circle of friends and colleagues happened in March already, one was a serious ICU case, the other one was a moderate case without hospitalisation. Overall incidence in Germany is very high, though. My Corona Warning Smartphone app registered quite a few low-risk encounters in recent weeks, meaning that I encountered people who got subsequentally tested positive, but I only met them for a short period of time or at a greater distance (like passing them on the street), so there's no particular risk to me from these encounters.

Mask mandates in Germany are still broadly like they were since April, meaning public transport, shops, or other enclosed public places, plus the recent addition of mask mandates outdoors in crowded situations like inner cities.

[Ivanhoe]

3 hours ago, Stefan Fredriksson said:

The collegues and friends that got sick in covid last winter, spring and summer, generally got much sicker than us catching it now. I have absolutely no data for this, more than what I hear and read. More testing is definately a part of it, but still. What is your experience on this?

There were some very preliminary reports that COVID-19 was evolving to a less-lethal strain. While I have no doubt there are genetic variations going on, I figure that better outcomes are mostly due to testing and treatment. Catch it earlier, treat with the various drugs that stimulate immune system response, and treat with anti-inflammatories, anti-coagulants, etc. if things get worse.

Also, doesn't it seem likely that there's a strong psychological component? Somebody catching it in May might have thought they were headed for the knacker's yard, increasing stress levels and hormones. Somebody catching it now probably expects to live.

[Ivanhoe]

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-covid-physicians-true-coronavirus-timeline/
 

Quote

 

Two Paracetamol, two duvets, two days of bad diarrhoea and I returned to work Monday, a few pounds lighter and clinically puzzled. This was no ordinary fever. As it happens, two other GPs in my vicinity later described similar contemporaneous symptoms, and we all tested negative for Roche’s Covid-19 antibody assay 4 months later. That, however, is not so meaningful since most people are thought to clear the virus without the need for specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. On top of this, in PHE’s own studies, Roche’s test demonstrated only 83.9 per cent – 86.7 per cent sensitivity, so it was missing 13-17 per cent of true positives.

There are two arms of the cellular immune response. The immediate, innate system (no specific antibodies required), and the delayed, adaptive immune system (B and T-cells, and specific antibodies required which may or may not persist after the infection). So, no antibodies does not necessarily equate to future risk. 10 per cent of us may raise antibodies in response to the acute infection. We could die in the attempt. 90 per cent of us might deal with the infection innately, yet have nothing but our healthy, vigorous lives to show for it. A vaccine may not work, it may not be safe to some, it may raise antibodies but still not work. It may raise antibodies and make matters worse by ‘pathogenic priming’ and enhancing any future infection.

 

 

[LT Ducky]

My thoughts and observations on COVID19 –

First a little background to help you understand my stance on this. I’m 78 years old, diabetic (controlled with diet, exercise and a low dose of oral meds for the last 20 years) and have high blood pressure. In October of 2005 I was diagnosed with rectal cancer, stage 3. At that time my prognosis was a 50-50 chance of surviving past 2 years. I underwent a 1 year long treatment of radiation, surgery and 9 months of Chemo. I lost 40 pounds (from 160 to 120) and there is no way to adequately describe the misery of that year and I still suffer from the side effects. Given the effects and symptoms of COVID I would put the misery index of COVID on a level of that of a bad cold as compared to my cancer treatment.

Per the CDC (as of Sept 10, 2020) the survival rate for those over 70 years of age is 94%+; compare that to the expected 50-50 two year expectation of death that I was given. As I’ve mentioned before deaths from pneumonia are still running ahead of COVID – as of November 24, 2020, pneumonia 240,671, COVID 238,337. It’s not much more than COVID but pneumonia has consistently lead in deaths. And note that these CDC numbers for COVID do not match the 250,000 deaths commonly referenced; again, not by a significant amount but still exaggerated.

Masks and social distancing is also problematic with me. I wear a ‘gaiter’ because it is easily dropped off the face (and often falls down by itself) and to be honest, I consider it totally worthless as an effective shield but it allows me to buy groceries with minimal hassle. Here in Pennsylvania to eat in a restaurant you must ‘mask-up’ at the door, wear a mask to your table where it may be removed to eat your meal and socialize. To leave the restaurant you must ‘mask-up’ again to walk out the door. If that makes any sense to a rational-thinking person feel free to enlighten me on what I am missing.

At times I wonder at the seeming ‘herd mentality’ (not to be confused with ‘herd immunity’) of the dedicated mask-wears; I wear it to avoid getting hassled, I totally do not understand those people I see walking their dog on an empty sidewalk or driving alone in their cars with the A/C on and the windows up while wearing a mask. I did get a little insight as to the origin of this behavior last night while visiting my sister (an avid, obsessed mask-wearer). I arrived as the evening news (ABC) was on, and it played in the background as I talked with her and my 2 nieces. I haven’t watched ANY television news in over 2 years and was appalled by the fear-mongering presentation of all things COVID-related ; she is a faithful watcher of the news – no wonder she sees COVID much differently than I do.

I know we’ve had some here who’ve had COVID, or lost friends or relatives to it, I don’t mean to belittle that experience, it just that in my little world I view it as part of life (or death). I fear a massive stroke or heart attack much more than COVID.

[Stefan Fredriksson]

 

@Ivanhoe

Sounds reasonable.

 

I got some general symptoms, but missed out on the diarrhoea. Almost got constipated instead, laying on the couch for days on end. Can't win them all I guess. Took antibody-test today, result hopefully before weekend. I'd like to get a positive response, but will not be as disapointed as I would have been if the PCR-test had been negative.

Edited November 24, 2020 by Stefan Fredriksson

[Stefan Fredriksson]

@LT Ducky

I wear mask (and visor) at work. The mask (surgical) was added less than two weeks ago, to be used when we have "close contact", ie within touching distance, of patients. Which we do on all visits. No clue about the effectiveness, but I *know* it reassures some patients - mostly younger ones. Some of the elder are just like, who cares, cant you remove that thing.

What you describe in the restaurant is similar to our 10 pm alcohol-ban in bars. As far as I can tell minimal practical use in reducing spread, more sending message (from government), and abiding somewhat questionable rules (restaurants).

I have also spoken to quite a few, who like you have battled cancer, and they usually are less worried about covid.

I think, and hope, the fear-mongering at the moment has more to do with uncertainty than anything else. It is a new danger, so better to err on the side of caution.

Edited November 24, 2020 by Stefan Fredriksson

[Der Zeitgeist]

25 minutes ago, LT Ducky said:

I know we’ve had some here who’ve had COVID, or lost friends or relatives to it, I don’t mean to belittle that experience, it just that in my little world I view it as part of life (or death). I fear a massive stroke or heart attack much more than COVID.

Sure, everyone has their own perspective on certain risks concerning their health and life.

I'm 40, with some COVID risk factors, so I've been very careful throughout the whole year because I'm pretty sure I won't be missing much by putting parts of my life on hold in 2020.

My dad is 75, loves to spend his time travelling through various places on his bucket list for as long as his health still allows him to. When I mentioned some concern about his vacation plans this summer he simply told me he doesn't expect to have that many good years left anyway, and some virus wouldn't keep him from traveling, period.

[Brian Kennedy]

4 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

My dad is 75, loves to spend his time travelling through various places on his bucket list for as long as his health still allows him to. When I mentioned some concern about his vacation plans this summer he simply told me he doesn't expect to have that many good years left anyway, and some virus wouldn't keep him from traveling, period.

The thing about that kind of attitude (and I know a lot of people over here like that too) is that... I'm a firm believer in the moral right to do whatever you want to yourself as long as you're not hurting anybody else. I really enjoy my whiskey and cigarettes but I don't drive drunk or smoke around nonsmokers. But Covid is a highly infectious disease -- if you get it, chances are pretty high you're going to infect other people, who didn't get a say in the matter. Which makes it a moral imperative to not get Covid.