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14 minutes ago, TTK Ciar said:

The infected population hasn't stopped growing.

The number of Americans who will know someone who died of covid19 will depend on how long it takes to arrest its spread.
 

It also depends on viral mutations as well as changes in the immune system of the population.


The first crop of vaccines is still about eight months away (give or take) from widespread availability, making this pandemic only halfway over.

Don't count your chickens just yet :-)

Edit: I don't want my English teachers to come after me.

Edited by Stargrunt6
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1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It all depends on the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines from Biotech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. If these work, vaccinations can start very early next year, as the promising vaccine candidates have already been in production for months now.

Sadly not true.  That's what the news said but in actuality what they have been working on is stockpiling critical cross-drug ingredients to then be formulated into vaccines when the final one is selected.  What the news reported about ramping up production of vaccines in stockpile was actually racing to produce vaccine doses for the clinical trials.  A huge effort and impressive but NOT stockpiling drugs for widespread distribution.  AZ doesn't wrap its very first clinical trials to become part of the package to eventually submit to the FDA until Sept 2021 (first ones running in Brazil).  Indian phase 3 wraps in the same timeframe.  AZ has not been producing vaccines, they have been adding production capacity to increase the volume of viral vectors when they finally do move forward (they just signed a deal for a fourth production facility).  Pfizer is hoping to submit the EUA for it's current candidate in early to mid December.  This will enable either a fast tracked second longer term study or, if the results are very good, a limited enrollment of actual patients.

Please note that this does not reflect that any of these companies have a deep and abiding faith in their current vaccines (hope yes).  Rather it reflects that Operation Warp Speed is funneling them tens of millions of dollars from the US gov't to cover the risk.  

 

Captain Buzzkill to the rescue!

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11 minutes ago, nitflegal said:

Captain Buzzkill to the rescue!

Well, we'll see.

Reading between the lines over here, there's certain decisions with logistics happening that suggest at least BNT162 might be further along than people are letting on. German state governments have until November 10th to select the sites for the vaccination centers, which would be large facilities like convention centres or exhibition grounds.

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2 hours ago, Stargrunt6 said:

I'll admit, I reuse masks, including a cloth one. They get sterilized in the car in 120deg southern heat (or were).  Sometimes the cloth one gets washed. 

For school I've bought 50 N95 masks, individually-bagged and bagged into separate weeks. I rotate them out every day, with the idea that by the end of the school year I'll only wear them four times, with over two months' time for any virii to deactivate. May bake them over Christmas break too.

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Cloth masks can be washed with a diluted bleach. They will fall apart fasted due that treatment however.

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Looking at this long term, are coronaviruses the new flu virus(es)? Do we end up with a routine annual "pick the variants and hope" vaccine programme for the over-50s?

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Well we're looking at another lockdown next month. Virtual meeting of the state minister presidents with the chancellor today to sorta-agree on sorta-common measures. Media report that the federal government suggests closing hotels, restaurants, pubs etc. except for take-away, as well as theaters, pools, spas, massage parlors and similar, but not barber shops, retail, and emphatically not schools and daycare to avoid a repeat of the situation in spring when parents were stuck at home with their kids. Meeting in public back to members of two households only.

As usual, there's disagreement between state governments about individual measures. The SPD-led states and Thuringia are reportedly discussing a similar catalogue, but staged depending upon development. There are various other proposals like a short, sharp "wavebreaker" lockdown for a week, or rolling lockdowns for one week out of every four. Certainly people are preparing already, with increased buying of essential stuff and longer checkout lines at supermarkets. No empty shelves so far this time though.

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My groceries delivery company (REWE) now once again has a one week delay between ordering online and delivery. During the summer it was down to 12 hours.

Some articles now sold out, like fresh veggies, but that might the time of year. TP available in various ply and colors.

--

Leo

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9 hours ago, FALightFighter said:

I cut a piece of an old T-shirt for a mask. I wear it as little as possible, only when someone actually hassles me about it, and I haven't washed it yet. I haven't gotten sick, and I doubt I will know it if I do get this virus. The whole thing is a stupid overreaction.

Me too

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4 hours ago, BansheeOne said:

Well we're looking at another lockdown next month. Virtual meeting of the state minister presidents with the chancellor today to sorta-agree on sorta-common measures. 

I see France's per capita infection rate yesterday is about 4 times higher than the highest per capita rate recorded in the United States.  Good show.  Was that 'science' that Macron was following to manage that?

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3 hours ago, glenn239 said:

I see France's per capita infection rate yesterday is about 4 times higher than the highest per capita rate recorded in the United States.  Good show.  Was that 'science' that Macron was following to manage that?

No. It is people ignoring what should be done to stop the spread of the virus.

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9 minutes ago, MiloMorai said:

No. It is people ignoring what should be done to stop the spread of the virus.

Yeah, like going to work in the overcrowded metro?

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And we have another (less strict) lockdown. Private events have driven infections, restaurants and bars not at all, so guess what Her Alternativelessness has decreed? Bars and restaurants shall be closed. Where will people party, the world wonders. :(

Here is to the courts stopping this madness. 

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Quote

Date 28.10.2020

Author Alistair Walsh, Elliot Douglas

Coronavirus: Germany to impose one-month partial lockdown

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced tough new measures from Monday, November 2, in an attempt to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. But will the German people be compliant?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Germany's state premiers announced on Wednesday a new partial lockdown to begin on Monday, November 2.

The so-called nationwide "lockdown light" is a less intense version of the measures that brought German society and economic activity to a standstill in the spring. 

Shortly after Merkel's announcement, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new lockdown across France.

New restrictions for the next month

  • Restaurants and bars will close, except for take-away
  • Large events will be canceled again
  • Unnecessary travel is strongly discouraged 
  • Overnight stays in hotels for tourist purposes is banned 
  • All those who can work from home should do so and employers should ease a transition into working from home 
  • Meetings in public will be restricted to just two households of up to 10 people total.
  • Entertainment facilities such as theaters and cinemas will be closed
  • Public recreation centers such as swimming pools, gyms and saunas will be closed
  • No crowds at sports events

What is allowed

  • Schools and kindergartens will remain open
  • Church services and protests will be allowed to continue due to constitutional concerns
  • Nursing home residents will be allowed to receive visitors
  • Shops will remain open, with one customer allowed per 10 square meters (108 square feet)
  • Borders remain open

'Serious situation'

Merkel said in a press conference: "We are in a very serious situation."

"We must act, and now, to avoid an acute national health emergency."

She said the number of people in intensive care units has doubled in the past 10 days, and that in many areas it was no longer possible to track and trace infection chains. In 75% of cases, the source of infection is unknown.

"If infections continue at this rate, we will be at the limits of the capacities of our health system," she said.

"That is why this is a difficult day today, also for political decision-makers, I want to say this explicitly because we know what we are putting people through," she said.

State and federal leaders will meet again in two weeks to assess if the new measures are having enough of an effect, and recalibrate if needed.

Business support

Merkel promised that firms hit by the new measures would receive economic support. Companies with up to 50 employees and the self-employed will receive 75% of their income in support.

"We will compensate affected companies, institutions and clubs," she said.

According to media reports, a total of €10 billion ($11.8 billion) has been earmarked for support.

Larger companies will be reliant on EU rules for assistance and this will vary from company to company.

Emergency loans will be made available for self-employed workers such as artists and stage hands, while small businesses with less than 10 employees will gain access to very cheap loans.

Public mood

Until now, Merkel's government has enjoyed high levels of support for the measures put in place to tackle the pandemic and Germany has fared relatively well compared to many of its European neighbors.

But public mood has been shifting and criticism among the population of government-ordained measures is on the rise.

Wednesday saw Germany's highest rate of new daily infections yet — over 14,000 — and the latest figures show that only around 25% of Germany's intensive care beds are still available. 

Mounting dissatisfaction 

Compared to the beginning of October, 5% more people now say that the measures currently in place do not go far enough (32% in total), according to the statistics agency Infratest. At the same time, the number of people for whom the measures go too far increased by 4% to 15% of people in total. A slim majority (51%) feel that the current measures are sufficient, but this number is 8% less than at the start of October. 

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-to-impose-one-month-partial-lockdown/a-55421241

 

Quote

Date 28.10.2020

Author Alistair Walsh

Coronavirus: France announces second lockdown

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced new lockdown measures for France. There were more than 36,000 new cases reported in the past 24 hours.

France will enter a new coronavirus lockdown on Friday until at least December 1.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced the new restrictions in a speech from the Elysee palace after an emergency meeting. It came shortly after neighboring Germany announced a new lockdown.

New restrictions

  • People can only leave home to go to work, to go to school, for a medical appointment, to give assistance to loved ones, for essential shopping or for one hour of physical exercise
  • People will need to show documentation when leaving the house
  • Travel between regions is banned
  • Bars, restaurants and nonessential businesses will be closed
  • Work must be done remotely wherever possible
  • Universities and higher education will mostly be taught online
  • International borders will remain largely closed

What is allowed

  • Schools will remain open
  • Essential businesses will remain open 
  • Most public services will remain open
  • Factories, farms and construction sites can continue work
  • EU borders will remain open
  • French citizens can return from overseas
  • Retirement homes can accept visits
  • Funerals are still possible

The rules apply to all of France, but there will be an exception for the upcoming All Saint's holiday weekend. 

Authorities will reassess the situation in 15 days. French Prime Minister Jean Castex will announce further details on Thursday, just before the lockdown goes into effect.

[...]

Economic support

Macron said there would be widespread economic support for people and business affected by the lockdown.

Small businesses will have access to €10,000 ($11,700) per month in assistance, employees will continue to receive short-term work assistance and people who have trouble paying rent will receive assistance.

A large proportion of the country is already facing strict measures, with two-thirds of the population under a 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew for the past two weeks, however Macron said this was still ineffective.

The new lockdown measures are slightly more relaxed than the country's first in spring, when people were confined to their homes for eight weeks under strict conditions and schools were closed.

The only way

Macron said the new lockdown was urgent due to the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed.

"If we do not take action now ... then our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and this time around we will not be able to transfer patients to other regions because the virus is everywhere," Macron said.

"It is my responsibility to protect all French citizens."

More than 3,000 people are currently in intensive care in France, according to the latest figures, with more than half of intensive care beds now occupied by COVID-19 patients. 

France has the highest number of infections in Europe, with more than 36,000 new infections detected in the past 24 hours.

Macron said the goal of the new lockdown was to reduce new daily infections to 5,000.

The pandemic has already killed more than 35,000 people in France since it began.

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-france-announces-second-lockdown/a-55426861

 

Quote

Date 28.10.2020

Coronavirus digest: Italy posts record infection numbers as Europe locks down

Italy has posted its highest number of daily infections as its citizens rebel against restrictions. Now, a second wave of lockdowns is being implemented across Europe, with Germany being the latest to announce measures.

Italy reported a record 24,911 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday. It was the second day in a row the country has registered more than 20,000 new cases. The 205 deaths logged Wednesday brought Italy's total number of COVID-19 fatalities to 37,905, second only to the UK in Europe.   

Despite the surging infection rates, government-imposed safety measures have enraged citizens. On Tuesday evening, police fired teargas after demonstrators rallied across the country against nationwide coronavirus restrictions.

Members of the neo-fascist political party Forza Nuova (New Force) clashed with police in the Rome's central Piazza del Popolo.

The northern cities of Milan and Turin saw scenes of unrest from Monday into Tuesday, after the Italian government imposed the most severe restrictions since the end of the main lockdown in June. Hundreds gathered outside the offices of the regional government in Milan, with some throwing stones, petrol bombs and fireworks. In Turin, shop windows were smashed and stock looted.

The country's prosecutor for terrorism and organized crime, Federico Cafiero de Raho, said subversives — including those from the extreme right and anarchists on the extreme left — had infiltrated peaceful protests nationwide.

Under the latest rules, all bars and restaurants must close by 6 p.m. local time. Cinemas, theaters, gyms, pools and concert halls will also have to shut. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said the pandemic had reached "worrying levels" and that tough measures were needed to "manage it without being overwhelmed."

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-italy-protests/a-55417951

Edited by BansheeOne
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UK estimates over 100,000 infections per day.

Deaths increasing, too, but with the expected lag and lower morbidity rate. Probably a combination of the most vulnerable being already dead or smart enough to be well isolated.

 

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I should say that the 100,000 per day is a study conclusion, not the official positive test rate.

From the "World In Data" Coronavirus raw data, the UK so far:

942275 positive tests (1.4% of the population)

45675 deaths (0.067%)

The seven day rolling average of deaths is 217.

The overall risk of death given a positive test is 4.85%, down from a peak of 15.7% in late April.

Data from 29 October.

https://imgur.com/a/N5B9i7V

The difference in death rates between the "first wave" and the "second wave" is stark. It almost certainly reflects the different demographics of those becoming infected, with the early peak occurring amongst the elderly and particularly vulnerable and the current wave being a more general spread amongst those not willing or able to maintain the appropriate level of isolation.

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The Trump administration ousted “the over-confident idiots” and replaced them with “people who kind of know their place.”

Kushner told Woodward on April 18 that “the most dangerous people around the president are over-confident idiots,” a comment provided without much introspection considering the hubris that Trump’s son-in-law has brought to many of his White House projects. Many of these purported fools Kushner had already “gotten rid of” and replaced with “a lot more thoughtful people who kind of know their place and know what to do.”

Throughout the pandemic, the administration officials who have fared best are those who have essentially let Trump’s false claims about the virus’s receding threat go unchallenged, or even bolstered them. Joining Kushner at the top of this list is Scott Atlas, the controversial adviser who was reportedly brought into the White House to tell Trump more of what he wanted to hear after task force members Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx contradicted the president’s rosy assertions.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/the-5-worst-things-kushner-said-about-trumps-covid-strategy.html

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1 hour ago, MiloMorai said:

The Trump administration ousted “the over-confident idiots” and replaced them with “people who kind of know their place.”

Trump should look to France to see how its done.  I hear their plan is working wonderfully at the moment.

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