Us Embassy In Iraq Under Attack

[glenn239]

I am sure having two barely coordinated air defence organizations with fire authority given to battery level commanders has nothing to do with this incident. It's Trump's fault.

 

l think Trump would actually have gone far out of his way to assure the Iranians he'd not return fire without a warning if he'd have had any suspicion that their air space command and control was that bad and dangerous If anyone is to blame on the American side, it's the Pentagon for failing to properly brief the President on the weaknesses of the Iranian command system and present him with options on how to reduce the risk. But even that is a bit of a stretch.

 

Putin will resolve the problem though, with the export of the S-400 / S-500 complexes to Iran after 2020. Actually, with this incident, the Russians will market their new stuff as necessary for all countries requiring advanced air defences operating in conjunction with civilian air traffic.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Stuart, So, the British are responsible for the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor? What with you know, starting WWII and all.

Poor choice of words and analogies leads to wrong conclusions. Yes without British Empire support of Japan prior and during Rus-Jap war Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor decades later was hardly possible. But does it mean Britain officials somewhere in 1900 were plotting attack on Pearl Harbor? As for me, not.

 

 

Ryan may be pointing to a recent Smithsonian (or was it PBS?) documentary that pointed to some of the spies involved in investigating Pearl Harbor for the Japanese were, in fact, British spies in the pay of the Japanese. Although as already pointed out, if you are going to hold a nation accountable for the faults of one man, there isn't one of us that would escape a whipping.

 

Good morning, おはよう, yawn, stretch, so lets see how the updates on the Iran situation.. ohhhhh its freaking PH.

Yeah, I can appreciate your discombobulation.

 

 

Never mind, Ill try and nudge it back on track.

 

https://www.vox.com/world/2020/1/23/21078613/iran-hook-soleimani-trump-kill

The Trump administration’s top envoy for Iran just put assassination back on the table when he said the US will take out the successor to slain Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani — if the successor continues along the path of killing Americans.

That forceful message, delivered by Brian Hook during an interview with the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, serves as a stark warning to Tehran — and could conceivably increase tensions with the US.

If new Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani “follows a similar path of killing Americans, he will meet the same fate,” Hook said. “The president has made clear for years that any attacks against American personnel or interests in the region will be met with a decisive response.”

“This is not a new threat,” Hook continued. “I think the regime now understands that they cannot attack America at will, and expect to get away with it. So we will hold the regime and its proxies accountable for any attacks on Americans, or on American interests in the region

Edited January 24, 2020 by Stuart Galbraith

[JasonJ]

 

 

 

...

 

Never mind, Ill try and nudge it back on track.

 

...

A little closer on topic, JS Harusame conducted joint-training with the Russian Navy in the Arabian Sea.

https://tass.com/defense/1111233

[Stuart Galbraith]

Iran denies effort to send black boxes abroad, and decides to analyze data itself.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-plane-crash-black-box-ukraine-france-canada-a9291311.html

 

I dont know what exactly they are afraid of. We already know what caused it.

 

This was also interesting. A woman killed on 752 was the boss of two companies that probably broke the UN weapons embargo on Libya, and lost an IL76 on the tarmac there to a drone attack. The reason for her journey to Tehran is unknown. I suspect the conspiracy theorists will have a field day with this.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/ukrainian-jet-victim-ran-company-suspected-by-un-of-violating-libyan-arms-embargo/ar-BBZhrOU?li=AAggNb9

Edited January 24, 2020 by Stuart Galbraith

[Nobu]

There is no chance the boxes will reveal anything it wants to hear, and Iran does not want its people to think their government cannot analyze the boxes without outside help.

 

They are starting to regain their balance, unfortunately.

[Stuart Galbraith]

There is no chance the boxes will reveal anything it wants to hear, and Iran does not want its people to think their government cannot analyze the boxes without outside help.

 

They are starting to regain their balance, unfortunately.

Yeah, I guess they are that paranoid. Hence why they build everything from model supercarriers to stealth fighters with shopping trolley wheels.

[glenn239]

There is no chance the boxes will reveal anything it wants to hear, and Iran does not want its people to think their government cannot analyze the boxes without outside help.

 

They are starting to regain their balance, unfortunately.

 

The black boxes aren't going to reveal anything useful except that the plane's transponder was on and it was hit by a missile. So, if Iran turns over the black boxes, Tehran cannot claim the transponder was off.

[rmgill]

 

Stuart, So, the British are responsible for the Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor? What with you know, starting WWII and all.

You ever hear of a man called Charles Lindbergh? Edward Kennedy? Henry Ford? Woodrow Wilson? Why do you think Hitler thought the US was decadent and corrupt? How much responsibility can they carry, yes, along with Chamberlain, for the underestimation of the Anglosphere? How much did that cost us?

 

 

 

No, we aren't solely responsible for the bombing of pearl harbor. We can only take the blame for showing the Japs how to do it properly with Taranto.

 

But you lot got WWII started what with challenging Germany over Poland. If you hadn't taken scope of the possible repercussions.... and declared war, would any of that have happened?

 

This is your premise. I'm making you put the shoe on the other foot and understand that perhaps your idea of how this is all Trump's fault instead of the root cause being Iran's repeated transgressive 'diplomacy'....

[BansheeOne]

We interrupt your regular debate about Japanese vs. American guilt for WW II with a report on current events in Iraq.

 

Thousands in Iraq called for US troops to leave the country. But there's more to the story.

 

It doesn't look like these anti-US protests will be sustainable, at least for now.

 

By Alex Ward on January 24, 2020 11:40 am

 

Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis took to the streets of Baghdad Friday to demand the expulsion of US troops from Iraq.

 

A prominent anti-US Shia leader and Iranian-linked forces orchestrated the event, calling for a million man march. That didnt happen, but the roughly 200,000-person crowd made clear their patience with the 5,000 US troops still in Iraq to defeat ISIS is running out.

 

Chants of "No, no, America" - "and Death to America" and "Death to Israel" - could be heard throughout the Friday protest. The crowd was littered with Iraqs red, white, and black striped flag, underscoring the growing strength of Iraqi nationalism throughout the country.

 

Followers of Muqtada al-Sadr - the event's organizer and a prominent anti-US Shia cleric - wore white robes or scarves, a sign that those people would die for their cause. White is the color of the shroud in which Muslims are buried.

 

[...]

 

"The turnout was very big, and it showed that Sadr and his Shia Islamist allies can still mobilize a lot of people", Robert Ford, the deputy US ambassador to Iraq from 2008 to 2010, told me.

 

But there's a larger backstory at play here, and it may be good news for those who want the US presence to continue.

 

Iraqi animosities are still turned toward Baghdad and Iran

 

As with any movement, this demonstration has important and differing facets to it.

 

One aspect is that Iran and those who want to work in common cause with it - in this case, Sadr - are taking advantage of the fallout from President Trumps early January decision to kill Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani.

 

Days afterward, Iraq's parliament passed a nonbinding measure to kick US troops out. Importantly, that vote happened on sectarian lines, with Shia lawmakers choosing to boot America out while Sunni and Kurdish leaders opted not to participate.

 

Still, Sadr clearly wanted to build off that vote's momentum with his carefully planned event. But the fact that it didn't last long and many returned to anti-Baghdad protests indicates he may not have totally succeeded.

 

"Anti-Iranian chants could be heard sporadically throughout the march, too", Iraq expert Rasha Al Aqeedi told me.

 

The other issue is the months-long protests against the Iraqi government for failing to govern effectively and provide basic necessities like water and electricity. Those demonstrations have focused intensely on Iran's influence in the country, with many blaming Tehran for eroding Iraq's sovereignty and worsening the country's crisis.

 

That sentiment still appears to be a pervading one. Sadr seemed aware of this dynamic when he chose to hold his rally away from Baghdads Tahrir Square, where the anti-government protests are located.

 

"We support the protests in Tahrir as well, but understand why Sadr held this protest here so it doesn't take attention from their", Raed Abu Zahra, a healthy ministry worker in Iraq who attended Sadr's event, told Reuters.

 

Al Aqeedi told me the US therefore won't react too negatively to this demonstration. "Sadr cant amass something like this every other day", she said. "Unlike the Tahrir Square protests, they can't sustain this."

 

Others, like Ford, still offered a warning. "The US should be careful not to ignore real anger and frustration among big parts of Iraq's Shia community", he said. "The office of Ayatollah Sistani, perhaps the community's most influential actor, again emphasized today that Iraq's sovereignty must be respected."

 

[...]

 

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/24/21079973/iraq-protests-us-troops-iran

 

There is no chance the boxes will reveal anything it wants to hear, and Iran does not want its people to think their government cannot analyze the boxes without outside help.

 

They are starting to regain their balance, unfortunately.

Concur. The window for a diplomatic initiative to seize on the momentum as I suggested earlier is closing fast, and maybe it's already gone.

Edited January 24, 2020 by BansheeOne

[Nobu]

A reveal by the Iranian government itself that the transponder was on, will help repair its credibility with the Iranian people more than a similar reveal made by a foreign agency.

 

The Islamic Revolutionary Government has shown that it can survive a war on one front. What it fears is war on two.

 

Concur. The window for a diplomatic initiative to seize on the momentum as I suggested earlier is closing fast, and maybe it's already gone.

 

It took some flexibility on their part to start closing that window so quickly. I don't think anyone in the world thought they had it.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Nobu

[DKTanker]

 

This is your premise. I'm making you put the shoe on the other foot and understand that perhaps your idea of how this is all Trump's fault instead of the root cause being Iran's repeated transgressive 'diplomacy'....

 

I think it time to point out that one can never, or at least shouldn't be held responsible for the actions of others. If a woman attempts to fight off her rapist and then is subsequently killed, is she to blame for him killing her? When Britain interned the Iranian tanker, it wasn't Iran that forced Britain to act, it was the Brits that chose to act. If you want, I'll got yet more American-centric. The United States, and the United States alone, is responsible for the atomic bomb attacks upon Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Reasonable people can make reasonable arguments of the necessity or not of those attacks, but the attack on Pearl Harbor December 1941 did not force Truman to order the bombing of Hiroshima in August 1945.

[glenn239]

A reveal by the Iranian government itself that the transponder was on, will help repair its credibility with the Iranian people more than a similar reveal made by a foreign agency.

.

 

The Iranian people don't give a rat's ass whether the transponder was on or not. Those that are tired of the police state want a new government. Those that support the government think the protestors are treasonous and will support the government.

 

As for the air defense forces, a real review of what happened and why, and then a shopping spree in China and Russia in order to purchase the equipment that it does not happen again. Older Russian army systems are clearly inadequate to current environments without serious upgrades of target identification. We have 3 shoot-downs in the past years by legacy systems, (2 airliners, 1 Russian plane in Syria).

[bojan]

...Older Russian army systems are clearly inadequate to current environments without serious upgrades of target identification...

No, it is all about incompetent use.

You can not mistake airliner for anything other than B-52 if you are properly trained.

Edited January 25, 2020 by bojan

[Nobu]

Those Iranians in the middle who have not yet decided how much incompetence is enough will be the fulcrum.

 

Tehran can probably sustain an external power brokering effort or an internal power consolidation effort. It probably knows it cannot sustain both.

[BansheeOne]

Or more likely merge it with one of the dozen or so existing Japan threads, like this one.

 

I don't know if Japanese culture is inherently aggressive or not, but between Ryan and Jason, personally I blame exposure to it for instilling impressible Americans with a counterproductively alienating debating style.

 

(Of course there are certain German posters who manage the same quite without any foreign cultural influence, and American posters who debate what they think rather than what they read the other guy said, and British posters who debate what they think they remember, and ...)

[Ssnake]

Whatever, it's a separate thread now.

[rmgill]

Yeah, sorry about that. It was a ridiculous tangential digression.

[JasonJ]

Three rockets hit US embassy yesterday.

Three rockets have hit the US embassy in Iraq’s capital, wounding at least one person, in the first direct strike reported after months of close calls.

 

The attack on Sunday evening in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone marked a dangerous escalation in a series of rocket attacks in recent months that have targeted the embassy or Iraqi military bases where American troops are deployed.

 

None of the attacks has been claimed but Washington has repeatedly blamed Iran-backed military factions in Iraq.

 

...

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/27/us-embassy-iraq-rocket-attack-injuries

[Adam Peter]

Not a long while ago we learned that nobody injured in the retaliatory strike. Then came the reports about people flying around and crashing into hard things. Now the reports speak about 50 injured, 19 evacuated from the country.

 

Just headaches.

[Tim the Tank Nut]

had these reports surfaced right away there would have been a war. Is that what you'd rather have happen?

Thousands, if not tens of thousands wounded and dead. Is that what you are defending?

[Stuart Galbraith]

To be fair, many of these are delayed results. Some are only now showing up for the first time. It also may have been difficult to determine who was suffering concussion, and who were just in shock for being shot at for the first time.

 

All that said, for a President running his mouth regularly about taking military action against iran, it's not exactly convincing when they are being less than forthcoming about injuries to US servicemen. It smacks of Johnson and the USS Liberty.

[Jeff]

How do you have a missile attack with no physically wounded but 50 "traumatic brain injuries"? I'm curious as to the specifics of how they were injured and just how wide a range of effects are considered TBIs?

[DKTanker]

How do you have a missile attack with no physically wounded but 50 "traumatic brain injuries"? I'm curious as to the specifics of how they were injured and just how wide a range of effects are considered TBIs?

First you use hyperbole, and then you sprinkle in the snowflake generation that believes a headache is a symptom of a traumatic brain injury. Crews that service towed howitzers routinely have their bells rung. Years ago when tank crew evaluators rode the top of tank turrets, we routinely had head aches from the concussive effects of the main gun firing. I recall, as do so many other tankers, the punch in the gut each time a neighboring tank fired. Well, if we were feeling it in our abdomens, think what our brains may have been experiencing. I'm guessing tens, nay hundreds of thousands, of current and former service members around the globe are right now suffering from "Traumatic" brain injuries.

[Colin]

Or firing the Carl Gustav

[MiloMorai]

 

How do you have a missile attack with no physically wounded but 50 "traumatic brain injuries"? I'm curious as to the specifics of how they were injured and just how wide a range of effects are considered TBIs?

First you use hyperbole, and then you sprinkle in the snowflake generation that believes a headache is a symptom of a traumatic brain injury. Crews that service towed howitzers routinely have their bells rung. Years ago when tank crew evaluators rode the top of tank turrets, we routinely had head aches from the concussive effects of the main gun firing. I recall, as do so many other tankers, the punch in the gut each time a neighboring tank fired. Well, if we were feeling it in our abdomens, think what our brains may have been experiencing. I'm guessing tens, nay hundreds of thousands, of current and former service members around the globe are right now suffering from "Traumatic" brain injuries.

 

They probably are like many contact sports athletes are from repeated physical contact.