Us Embassy In Iraq Under Attack

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

He is saying Trump framed the circumstances in which it all happened. Which, tenuously, he did, if you accept this all started with Soleimani getting a Hellfire enema.

The whole thing reminds me of KAL007, and illustrates just what I meant much earlier by war by accident.

 

Which he got because behind all of the Iranian mischief??

Which is by your premise, all our fault for deposing Mosaddegh.

 

Look, I'm not a child, I know we need to confront iran. But we have to be honest with ourselves, there is going to be a price for doing it. The Ukrainian airliner is part of the price, undoubtedly there will be others in other circumstances.

[Roman Alymov]

So its been pretty busy in those skies.

 

For it to have been an accident would have to be some unbelievably high degree of incompetence.

 

One of conspiracy theories circulating in Rus Internet is that Iranian reaction was triggered by the plane switching off transponder before turning towards mil installation. If it is true and transponder was in fact switched off BEFORE missile impact, not after - then choice of relatively new (2016 as far as i remember) plane owned by airlines of shady oligarch Kolomoysky known for his dark deals, and manned by crew from Europe's poorest country with security services totally controlled by US, loaded by ethnic Persians from most liberal part of Iran society was ideal. By the way flight was delayed on plane commander's request "because of overweight". Was something loaded off the plane?

[Stuart Galbraith]

It's a great conspiracy theory. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be true.

 

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukrainian-flight-ps752-crashes-shortly-after-take-off-from-tehran/

[Pavel Novak]

Russian bots in CZ are coming with many sorts of blame shifting and crazy theories including turned off transponder. The issue with this one is that flightradar records doesn't agree. Another already proposed variant is that it was staged because how the camera man could know to make the video ... It is interesting that czech webs very pretty normal regarding discussions and once time has come at the same time massive influx of these apologist theories are now polluting space here.

 

On a technical note adding SA-4, SA-6 and SA-8 into peacetime SAM umbrella with life missiles was standard thing during Cold war. That the system belonged to the ground forces doesn't mean that it cannot operate in state air defence. Iranians really has to screw badly that a single SAM unit deployed in state air defence operates autonomously outside of IADS.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Pavel Novak

[Pavel Novak]

.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Pavel Novak

[DKTanker]

 

Look, I'm not a child, I know we need to confront iran. But we have to be honest with ourselves, there is going to be a price for doing it. The Ukrainian airliner is part of the price, undoubtedly there will be others in other circumstances.

 

Why then do you support confronting Iran if in the end you'll blame the west for actions committed by Iran? I mean let's not mince words. When you suggest that the price of confronting Iran is that Iran will shoot down civilian airliners, you are tacitly blaming the west for that shoot down.

[DB]

The arrest of the UK ambassador seems to be mainly down to local decision making being poor - he was held until his identity was established and higher authorities told the locals to let him go.

 

As for the local decision making at the SAM battery, I would be quite surprised if a UK AD battery had the authority to launch a missile in the event of loss of communication unless there was a declared state of hostilities, and probably direct evidence that hostile action was under way, but in the end if your weapon system allows local control, this sort of thing can happen.

 

What interests me is how the choler of the Iranian street protesters shifted so quickly from Death to the great Satan to an internal target. When you raise mobs, your control can be tenuous at best.

[Jeff]

 

So its been pretty busy in those skies.

 

For it to have been an accident would have to be some unbelievably high degree of incompetence.

 

One of conspiracy theories circulating in Rus Internet is that Iranian reaction was triggered by the plane switching off transponder before turning towards mil installation. If it is true and transponder was in fact switched off BEFORE missile impact, not after - then choice of relatively new (2016 as far as i remember) plane owned by airlines of shady oligarch Kolomoysky known for his dark deals, and manned by crew from Europe's poorest country with security services totally controlled by US, loaded by ethnic Persians from most liberal part of Iran society was ideal. By the way flight was delayed on plane commander's request "because of overweight". Was something loaded off the plane?

 

 

*megafacepalm*

[Ivanhoe]

One of many, many memes crossing my FB wall;

 

 

Like I said, Iran is losing the meme war.

[Roman Alymov]

It's a great conspiracy theory. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be true.

 

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukrainian-flight-ps752-crashes-shortly-after-take-off-from-tehran/

May be, but it is not obvious from this article, as flight track indicated only cover the time when transponder was on, and misses significant part of the flight (at least the part when " turned right back toward the airport and crashed")

[Roman Alymov]

Russian bots in CZ are coming with many sorts of blame shifting and crazy theories including turned off transponder. The issue with this one is that flightradar records doesn't agree. Another already proposed variant is that it was staged because how the camera man could know to make the video ... It is interesting that czech webs very pretty normal regarding discussions and once time has come at the same time massive influx of these apologist theories are now polluting space here.

 

On a technical note adding SA-4, SA-6 and SA-8 into peacetime SAM umbrella with life missiles was standard thing during Cold war. That the system belonged to the ground forces doesn't mean that it cannot operate in state air defence. Iranians really has to screw badly that a single SAM unit deployed in state air defence operates autonomously outside of IADS.

It was not exactly autonomous - but communication system was for some reason down, probably only adding to battery commander suspicion Tehran is under US attack. And taking into account previous US&Co boasting about remotely damaging Iranian nuclear installation computer systems, it would be very tempting for Iranians to blame this communication fault on enemy.

But it seems like Iranians, basing on experience of US attacks on other countries, have deliberately constructed command structure with great flexibility and low-level decision making, making it operational even if higher levels are destroyed or bought by enemy - exactly the same system that is discussed in Russia for decades by people, who believe our elite care more about their flats in London than about national inteersts). Unfortunatelly, this type of system got price attached...

[Roman Alymov]

About Iran air defense command structure - Google translated from https://iz.ru/912065/tom-kuper/dlia-tekh-kto-v-tankere

Military historian Tom Cooper - about why the US and its allies cannot conduct a “limited operation” against Iran
August 21, 2019

The situation around the detained Iranian tanker made many politicians and experts again talk about the possibility of a US military operation against Iran. Recently, diplomatic incidents have happened quite often. Nevertheless, in recent years, these conversations have not ended. Even when US President Donald Trump directly announced the air strikes, they did not follow. And this is no coincidence: Iran was able to build its security system against external threats in such a way that strikes against it will have the most serious consequences for the entire region.
The fundamental problem in assessing the defense potential of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is that this country is protected by two large military structures. The first is regular armed forces. They include the Iranian Army (ground forces with its own army aviation), Air Force, Navy and Air Defense Forces. These types of armed forces are officially responsible for protecting the territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic.
The second structure is the “irregular” “Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution” (IRGC). It includes: cyber command, air and space forces (cyber force, air and space force, IRGCASF), which includes the Missile Command, which is armed with ballistic missiles; Ground forces of the IRGC (they include about 20 divisions, mainly staffed by military personnel); Navy with its own army aircraft; Quds forces - special forces conducting operations abroad; Basij is a paramilitary militia that has recently been mainly used to suppress protests in the country. Officially, the functions of the IRGC are to defend the Islamic Revolution.
Each of the two Iranian military structures runs on a separate line of the defense budget and, moreover, has its own industrial base. Accordingly, each follows its own strategy and doctrine and has its own weapons systems.

After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the IRGC adapted its - and thus Iranian - national defense strategy to the so-called mosaic doctrine. Its essence lies in the decentralization of all control, monitoring, communications and intelligence systems to make all military structures more resilient and able to operate even in the event of large-scale attacks on command posts.
One of the little-known consequences of this is that now local commanders independently make many decisions on their own responsibility. For example, we recall the recent incident with the downed American drone RQ-4N Global Hawk. The chief of the calculation of the Raad air defense system (a local copy of the Russian Buk-M1 system), which is part of the IRGC, arbitrarily relocated his unit from the area that he was ordered to cover to a "more suitable" one. And so he created a major international incident - solely by his own decision.

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

It's a great conspiracy theory. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be true.https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukrainian-flight-ps752-crashes-shortly-after-take-off-from-tehran/

 

May be, but it is not obvious from this article, as flight track indicated only cover the time when transponder was on, and misses significant part of the flight (at least the part when " turned right back toward the airport and crashed")

,

 

How do the ATC know it turned around if the transponder was turned off? It apparently wasn't talking to anyone by radio it was too busy crashing...

 

Tom's stuff is always interesting, but he was the one who talked of the Iranians shooting down their own F14s in the Iran Iraq war. It's apparently nothing very new.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Iranian-Tomcat-Units-Combat-Aircraft-ebook/dp/B01DPPWK36/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Tom+cooper+f14&qid=1578861944&sr=8-1

Edited January 12, 2020 by Stuart Galbraith

[Pavel Novak]

About Iran air defense command structure - Google translated from https://iz.ru/912065/tom-kuper/dlia-tekh-kto-v-tankere

...

 

Such structure makes sense. Still one would think that some security procedures would be added just to prevent shooting down own military planes in conflict. While my military experience is limited to just training and not a real war I still had learned that proper identification always needs to precede shooting.

[Roman Alymov]

 

 

It's a great conspiracy theory. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be true.https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukrainian-flight-ps752-crashes-shortly-after-take-off-from-tehran/

May be, but it is not obvious from this article, as flight track indicated only cover the time when transponder was on, and misses significant part of the flight (at least the part when " turned right back toward the airport and crashed")

,

 

How do the ATC know it turned around if the transponder was turned off? It apparently wasn't talking to anyone by radio it was too busy crashing...

 

Turning off transponder is not removing the plane from radar screen - but only removes identification mark attached to it (or the mark is replaced with system-generated ID).So quick analysis of radar data after the crash was enough to find out trajectory of the plane after transponder was switched off.

[Roman Alymov]

 

About Iran air defense command structure - Google translated from https://iz.ru/912065/tom-kuper/dlia-tekh-kto-v-tankere

...

 

Such structure makes sense. Still one would think that some security procedures would be added just to prevent shooting down own military planes in conflict. While my military experience is limited to just training and not a real war I still had learned that proper identification always needs to precede shooting.

 

This system was for some reason disabled (And taking into account previous US&Co boasting about remotely damaging Iranian nuclear installation computer systems, it would be very tempting for Iranians to blame this communication fault on enemy.). As we know, people tend to shoot first, identify second even in less tense situations https://fighterjetsworld.com/air/when-two-usaf-f-15s-shot-down-two-u-s-army-uh-60-black-hawk-helicopters-26-us-servicemen-died/3208/

Edited January 12, 2020 by Roman Alymov

[Nobu]

Tom also mentioned the difficulties Iran had with the friendly missile fire issue in his Osprey book on IRIAF F-14s in action.

 

If the inability to iron out the defects at the sharp end of the government's bureaucratic apparatus is this pronounced after 30 years, imagine the level of inertia and incompetence at the bloated middle/civil services end of it.

 

No wonder the Iranian street is on the edge right now, as their escalators and other public services have probably been continuously breaking down for decades.

 

The blame game has consequences for a society, as Iran and Iranians may soon be finding out first hand in various inpleasant ways.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Nobu

[Jeff]

Fire discipline is very difficult, the derka derka Allahu Akbar types don't have very much discipline.

[Adam Peter]

Mark Esper: I 'Didn't See' Specific Evidence Of Iran Threat To 4 U.S. Embassies

[Burncycle360]

Sooo did we need to capture Bin Laden's itinerary, or did his history and recent actions provide sufficient evidence once his location was found?

[MiloMorai]

[Burncycle360]

Nice, so why didn't Trump attack Iran? An overt ballistic missile attack by the state (rather than state sponsored proxy) certainly justifies a couple of hundred tomahawks if he was looking for a reason. Instead he broke the cycle of escalation, much to the annoyance of the Democrats.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Burncycle360

[Nobu]

I think Donald is making a mistake if he is committing to de-escalation. Tehran has displayed an inability to handle pressure these past few days. No reason to discontinue applying it.

[Simon Tan]

The official protests against the 'old fox' have started outside the UK embassy. There are literally millions who know nothing but the regime and are entirely beholden to them. Think theocratic feudalism.

[Panzermann]

I think Donald is making a mistake if he is committing to de-escalation. Tehran has displayed an inability to handle pressure these past few days. No reason to discontinue applying it.

Well I guess the generals told him what a mess an invasion of Iran would become. Teheran cannot handle the pressure? Well there was the erropnously shot down aeroplane, yes and the IRGC has shown that their command and control sucks goat balls. but overall Teheran has acted quite level-headed I think. They could have launched all missiles they have without any warning at US bases around the gulf and released all those islamic terrorist groups on their payroll.

 

---

 

The official protests against the 'old fox' have started outside the UK embassy. There are literally millions who know nothing but the regime and are entirely beholden to them. Think theocratic feudalism.

 

The UK ambassador seems to have been invloved with the student protests. any triuth to that? And did he not want to walk too far when it was near the embassy?

 

Though these protests have been still small in number compared to those who attended the funeral services(?) across Iran for MG Soleimani. So a large majority stands with their government and religious leaders I think. Especially with a freshly made martyr I think

Edited January 13, 2020 by Panzermann