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Analysis Of Recent Attack On Saudi Arabian Oil Facility


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I suspect Houthi struggle with Quality Control, particularly as access to coastal areas and ports is not as good as it used to be. They might have used up a significant amount of their strike potentiel.

 

Cruise missiles designed by pretty much anyone have high failure rate. Missiles crashing by themselves along the way are regular feature of almost any cruise missile strike.

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I suspect Houthi Iranians struggle with Quality Control, particularly as access to coastal areas and ports is not as good as it used to be. They might have used up a significant amount of their strike potentiel.

 

Fixed it for you. I do wonder where the failed missiles were found. If they were all found together that would indicate there was a specific step in their flight path that caused a failure, and if it was inside the KSA, then it was something that went wrong likely entering the terminal mode. Although for all we know these things are littering the desert all the way to Iran; I get the impression the examples found already were relatively close to the target.

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And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:

Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:

https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20190917&t=2&i=1430954252&r=LYNXMPEF8G1NS&w=1280

 

Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.

 

 

That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?

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From what was said on CNN last night ( believe they were citing the Saudi Evidence) there was some evidence of a GPS track on the circuit boards, and the Iranians were remotely trying to delete it. if that is remotely true, it would mean the Iranians have developed something like Tactical TLAM.

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And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:

Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:

https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20190917&t=2&i=1430954252&r=LYNXMPEF8G1NS&w=1280

 

Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.

 

 

That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?

 

The cruise missile remains look to be of the Houthi Quds 1, which was indeed shown in July this year.

dfgfd.jpg

 

The Quds 1 is powered during flight by a (copy of) the small Czech turbojet TJ100:

TJ100-1024x555.jpg

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/

 

However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.

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And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:

Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:

https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20190917&t=2&i=1430954252&r=LYNXMPEF8G1NS&w=1280

 

Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.

That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?

The cruise missile remains look to be of the Houthi Quds 1, which was indeed shown in July this year.

dfgfd.jpg

 

The Quds 1 is powered during flight by a (copy of) the small Czech turbojet TJ100:

TJ100-1024x555.jpg

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/

 

However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.

Ive no doubt the Houti are in possession of those weapons. I consider it nigh on impossible they are manufacturing them.

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However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.

Image shows three delta type drones in the background. Too indistinct to make judgement if they are same as the one shown by Saudi.

 

Those in the background are small drones, see also http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2019/09/houthi-drone-and-missile-handbook.html

 

2nd and 3rd from left is the 'Rased' drone, a copy of the commercial Skywalker X8 UAV, supposedly a surveillance UAV.

C5m73-P6-WQAAB3t4.jpg

 

4rd from left is the Qasef 2K, a loitering munition or suicide UAV, and a not a delta, as seen in a close-up made at the same presentation:

D-4-LBO2-VUAAn-LNl.jpg

Edited by Daan
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And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:

Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:

https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20190917&t=2&i=1430954252&r=LYNXMPEF8G1NS&w=1280

 

Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.

That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?

The cruise missile remains look to be of the Houthi Quds 1, which was indeed shown in July this year.

dfgfd.jpg

 

The Quds 1 is powered during flight by a (copy of) the small Czech turbojet TJ100:

TJ100-1024x555.jpg

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/

 

However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.

Ive no doubt the Houti are in possession of those weapons. I consider it nigh on impossible they are manufacturing them.

 

 

I doubt the Saudis can manufacture F-15's either, and yet Yemen is getting the shit bombed out of it by them.

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However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.

Image shows three delta type drones in the background. Too indistinct to make judgement if they are same as the one shown by Saudi.

 

Those in the background are small drones, see also http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2019/09/houthi-drone-and-missile-handbook.html

 

2nd and 3rd from left is the 'Rased' drone, a copy of the commercial Skywalker X8 UAV, supposedly a surveillance UAV.

C5m73-P6-WQAAB3t4.jpg

 

4rd from left is the Qasef 2K, a loitering munition or suicide UAV, and a not a delta, as seen in a close-up made at the same presentation:

D-4-LBO2-VUAAn-LNl.jpg

 

 

 

The top one it seems hard to believe to make it from Yemen, or Iran.

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[quote name="Stuart Galbraith" post="1448964" timestamp="1568899753"

 

The top one it seems hard to believe to make it from Yemen, or Iran.

 

Yeah, the Rased was not used during the recent attack. However, it was shown during the Houthi presentation in July.

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The current batch of weapons lack the range and the punch to put Dimona at risk, regardless of air defenses. And Israel is possibly the most tightly monitored and defended airspace in the world with regard to small projectiles.

 

ETA: plus the inevitable counter strike against Iranian nuclear targets.

Edited by Josh
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That may be so, but it is surprising that for many of the publicized Israeli attacks on IRGC or Hezbollah targets in Syria the reason given was the destruction of a 'missile factory' or 'missile warehouse'. Since Israel has probably always been very much aware of the capabilities of Iran's missile and drone technology, it chooses prevention rather than relying solely on its AD network.

Edited by Daan
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That may be so, but it is surprising that for many of the publicized Israeli attacks on IRGC or Hezbollah targets in Syria the reason given was the destruction of a 'missile factory' or 'missile warehouse'. Since Israel has probably always been very much aware of the capabilities of Iran's missile and drone technology, it chooses prevention rather than relying solely on its AD network.

It's not the factories themselves that worry Israel. It's the fact that these new rockets are guided, rather than dumb. Or are dumb but with low enough CEP.

 

In English media it isn't nearly as clear, but in Hebrew media the entire campaign is described as a war against Hezbollah's accuracy project.

 

Now you tell me: If you're wearing a bulletproof vest, would you let some jackass point a gun at you when he has the intent to shoot (and has fired on you before), or would you try to neutralize them some way and take away their gun?

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The current batch of weapons lack the range and the punch to put Dimona at risk, regardless of air defenses. And Israel is possibly the most tightly monitored and defended airspace in the world with regard to small projectiles.

 

ETA: plus the inevitable counter strike against Iranian nuclear targets.

Why small projectiles? Israel's air defenses go all the way up to anti-ICBM defense.

Hezbollah has no way of striking at Dimona due to the distance. Iran has no chance at launching cruise missiles from its territory or from Yemen without Israel picking up the signature long in advance.

Due to a combination of many different natural obstacles, and abundance of anti-CM IADS systems in Dimona's vicinity (Iron Dome and David's Sling).

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