Analysis Of Recent Attack On Saudi Arabian Oil Facility

[Chris Werb]

The only short ranged system in KSA service I can turn up on a search is Skyguard 35mm.

 

ETA: Putin laughingly said maybe the KSA needs S400, but what they could probably really use is Pantsir.

For point defence I'd go with the German Mantis revolver cannon system paired with high powered laser system. Rheinmettal could provide both. Sensors and weapons would need to be elevated on flak towers for the best possible coverage.

[Ivanhoe]

Although in Germany at least how oil refinement is done is stuff for ninth or tenth form chemistry. But chenistry class in school sadly sucks most often. And journalists are among the first pupils deciding they do not need statistics, math in general or natural sciences. "too hard". resulting in the daily mangling of statistics and science in media.

It is known that all four branches of STEM are highly racist and chock-full of White Male Privilege and thus to be avoided.

[Brian Kennedy]

Will be interesting to see how the complete lack of response (as far as I know) from US and Saudi will play out. I read some article claiming that this is resulting in a new detente between KSA and Iran but can't find it now... pretty sure the Iranians who planned this have their careers set for life.

 

Edit: uh, never mind that! https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/11/middleeast/iran-oil-tanker-red-sea-intl-hnk/index.html

Edited October 11, 2019 by Brian Kennedy

[Chris Werb]

LOL! I was just thinking that

[Adam Peter]

Will the US Navy escort Iranian ships in the Red Sea in the name of freedom of navigation?

[Stuart Galbraith]

I think the rules of engagement probably are somewhere around 'wont piss on them if they are afire'.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 29.01.2021

Author Cathrin Schaer

Will Saudi Arabia become a new drone battleground?

An Iraqi militia has claimed responsibility for two suicide drones fired at Riyadh earlier this week — and vowed to do it again. The new group suggested Saudis should be sleeping with "one eye open" from now on.

Over the past week, two mysterious projectiles were intercepted by Saudi Arabian air defense systems as they flew over the country's capital, Riyadh. Last Saturday, state-owned media channels said a projectile had been intercepted and on Tuesday, explosions were again heard over the city around midday.

In the past, drone attacks near or into the Gulf state have been tied to the Houthi organization, with whom Saudi Arabia is fighting in Yemen. But this time was different. The Houthis denied responsibility. And after the air attacks, an Iraq-based group named Alwiya Alwaad Alhaq, which roughly translates to "The True Promise Brigades," issued a statement on a social media channel that relays news from the Iraqi paramilitary groups known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

The English-language message said the newly created Iraqi group was "openly targeting Saudi Arabia" with "suicide drones," in revenge for the recent double suicide bombing in a central Baghdad market that left over 30 dead.

'New playground' for drone, missile attacks

In their message the group alleged that Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Muslim-majority country, sponsors the extremist Sunni Muslim group known as the "Islamic State" (IS), which claimed responsibility for the deadly January 21 attack in Baghdad. Most of the PMF groups in Iraq are Shiite Muslims, and some are closely allied with Iran, a Shiite Muslim-majority state. 

"Saudi Arabia is the new playground for drone and missile attacks," the message continued. "MbS should sleep with one eye open from now on," it added, referring to the popular nickname of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Although Iran-backed militias are also suspected of being behind a damaging and far more complex September 2019 drone and missile attack  on the Saudis' Aramco oil facilities, this is the first time they have ever openly claimed responsibility for something like this.

New response from Iraqi militias

This is a very new phenomenon, said Hamdi Malik, a London-based associate fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, whose work focuses on the Iraqi paramilitary groups. "We have never heard these Iraqi groups claiming an attack on this territory before," he said.

Over the past year, more and more of these new groups have emerged from out of the larger PMF in Iraq. "The method is to create fake groups, claim attacks using these group identities, and thus mask [established militias'] role in the attacks," analyst Michael Knights explained in an October 2020 report for the Combating Terrorism Center at US military academy West Point.

Even though the groups all pledge loyalty to Iranian rather than domestic leadership, the various Iraqi groups have had internal squabbles and leadership contests — and they have different political objectives.

Drone attacks 'cannot be done without Iran's permission'

"However when there is an attack on another state [like this], that cannot be done without Iran's permission because of the huge potential consequences for Iraq and for Iran," said Malik.

Other actions the new Iraqi militia groups have taken have sometimes been met with criticism by their peers, or have even been ignored. But the suicide drones over Riyadh were commented upon and celebrated by all of the relevant Iran-loyalist paramilitaries. For Malik, the unanimous response indicates the drone attacks were likely approved by Iran.

Analysts believe the comparatively unsophisticated attack is part of an Iranian campaign to put pressure on the new Biden administration to lift sanctions on the country and return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal struck with the Obama administration, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

[...]

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-sponsored-militia-in-iraq-threatens-saudi-arabia-with-drone-warfare/a-56384109

[Adam Peter]

On 1/30/2021 at 8:12 AM, BansheeOne said:

"However when there is an attack on another state [like this], that cannot be done without Iran's permission because of the huge potential consequences for Iraq and for Iran," said Malik.

So much about the Casting Mold of Democracy in the Arab World.

[JasonJ]

An aticle saying same Iraq group claiming responsible for drone attack on Riyadh now threatened to attack Dubai's Burj Khalifa.

Quote

 

A militant group in Iraq has threatened to bomb Dubai's Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, the SITE Intelligence Group claimed on Wednesday.

On its website, the group reported that the Iraqi militia that launched the drone attack in Saudi Arabian capital last week was planning to attack the Burj Khalifa.

The SITE Intelligence Group claimed that the armed Iraqi militia is affiliated with Iran.

On Twitter, the group wrote: "Alleged group behind drone in Riyadh depicts strike on Burj Khalifa in Dubai."

Following the strike in Riyadh, a statement posted on Twitter pledged that more attacks will be carried out on Saudi Arabia.

Saudi has been a target for the Houthi militias in Yemen, where Saudi is leading a coalition carrying out attacks against the Iranian-backed group.

However, this is the first time that an Iraqi group attacks the Gulf state.

 

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210130-iraq-militia-threatens-to-bomb-dubais-burj-khalifa/

[Stuart Galbraith]

So withdrawing all those troops from Iraq really made Irans position so much weaker as we can see.

🙄

[Mighty_Zuk]

Iraq was given protection in the form of sponsorship, access to western technology for superior infrastructure, better development potential, long term stability and security, and the ability for the former oppressed Shia majority to gain their proportionate control in politics. 

And how do they repay America? Allying with Iran. What utter dumb asses. But then, it's typical for the Arab world - be given the results of many years of hard work on a silver plate and reject it because "Muh self destructive behavior".

[RETAC21]

On 1/31/2021 at 11:30 AM, Mighty_Zuk said:

Iraq was given protection in the form of sponsorship, access to western technology for superior infrastructure, better development potential, long term stability and security, and the ability for the former oppressed Shia majority to gain their proportionate control in politics. 

And how do they repay America? Allying with Iran. What utter dumb asses. But then, it's typical for the Arab world - be given the results of many years of hard work on a silver plate and reject it because "Muh self destructive behavior".

There's no "iraq" to make that decision, but interest groups inside Iraq's artificial borders that have aligned with the people they have affinity with outside Iraq. The "hard work" you mention is the part where a foreign power invades the country, sparks a civil war, makes a mess of the reconstruction and then leaves? because for that, it would be better if that hard work wasn't done at all.

[Mighty_Zuk]

3 hours ago, RETAC21 said:

There's no "iraq" to make that decision, but interest groups inside Iraq's artificial borders that have aligned with the people they have affinity with outside Iraq. The "hard work" you mention is the part where a foreign power invades the country, sparks a civil war, makes a mess of the reconstruction and then leaves? because for that, it would be better if that hard work wasn't done at all.

By hard work I mean the technology to which the west has access, because it was developed in the west, like advanced construction techniques, advanced industry, agriculture tech, electric infrastructure tech etc etc, which the west gives Iraq access to, for free.

[RETAC21]

12 minutes ago, Mighty_Zuk said:

By hard work I mean the technology to which the west has access, because it was developed in the west, like advanced construction techniques, advanced industry, agriculture tech, electric infrastructure tech etc etc, which the west gives Iraq access to, for free.

What makes you think they had access to that when everything was subcontracted to Western firms, or conversely, that they cannot access it in the open market now?

[Josh]

Slightly off topic, I tend to google map major installations around the world from time to time when I'm bored at work. I noticed that both the MIM-104 batteries at Al Udied now have a couple launchers facing back towards the mainland, where as previously they were all oriented directly towards Iran. Additionally one of them has been moved to a brand new alternate site, with the original site left empty (and having only positions with blast attenuating berms facing opposite Iran). So the US is wary of missiles coming from Iraq or possibly form over the KSA itself. Clearly someone is not confident of the Saudi's ability to stop drones or cruise missiles over their own territory.

 

This battery was located here previously but didn't have the two launch positions bottom left:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Qatar/@25.1040286,51.3462166,602m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x3e45c534ffdce87f:0x1cfa88cf812b4032!8m2!3d25.354826!4d51.183884

This position is new:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Qatar/@25.1182512,51.349945,506m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x3e45c534ffdce87f:0x1cfa88cf812b4032!8m2!3d25.354826!4d51.183884

This is the old unoccupied position:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Qatar/@25.1117939,51.3365717,602m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x3e45c534ffdce87f:0x1cfa88cf812b4032!8m2!3d25.354826!4d51.183884

[lucklucky]

Interesting, KSA is a vast country so someone can always set up some temporary base in the desert.

[Josh]

Drones and cruise missiles also don't have to move in straight lines.

[lucklucky]

Yep.

[Mighty_Zuk]

Yes Sherlock, it appears you are correct.

[BansheeOne]

Quote

Date 07.02.2021

Saudi Arabia intercepts armed drone from Yemen

Houthi rebels have reportedly launched a cross-border attack on Saudi Arabia, a day after the US said it would remove the group from its terrorism blacklist.

Officials from the Saudi-led alliance in Yemen said on Sunday that they had intercepted an armed drone launched from the war-ravaged country, state media reported.

Saudi Arabia claimed the attack came from the Iran-backed Houthis, just a day after the US announced that it would take the rebel group off its terrorism blacklist.

The military "intercepted and destroyed an armed drone," the spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition, Turki al-Maliki, told the Saudi Press Agency.

"It was launched systematically and deliberately by the terrorist Houthi militia to target civilians and civilian objects in the south of the region," he said.

The Houthis have not claimed responsibility for the attack.

Saudi Arabia loses US support in Yemen

In the past few days, US President Joe Biden's administration said that it will no longer support the Saudi intervention in Yemen and that it will reverse a last-minute decision taken by the Trump administration to designate the Houthis a terrorist organization.

Humanitarian groups had opposed placing the Houthis on the blacklist as it would severely limit their ability to deliver aid as they have no choice but to deal with Houthis in the parts of the country they control.

Saudi Arabia entered the conflict in 2015, with the support of then-President Barack Obama, in order to bolster the Yemeni government which was ousted from power by the Houthis.

The conflict is generally considered to be a proxy war between archrivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The Saudi kingdom has been subject to several attempted cross-border attacks, including a "hostile air target" that was destroyed last month as it headed towards the capital Riyadh.

https://www.dw.com/en/saudi-arabia-intercepts-armed-drone-from-yemen/a-56484538