Analysis Of Recent Attack On Saudi Arabian Oil Facility

[Kenneth P. Katz]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/strategic-implications-strikes-saudi-arabia

[Chris Werb]

He refers to TERCOM as Terminal Command. IIRC it actually stands for TERrain COntour Matching and is not what he's referring to at all.

[rmgill]

I saw that, I read it more of an example of what that is than what it means as a term. TERCOM is a terminal guidance that's based on imagery mapping/comparison. There's just not outside command to it.

[Josh]

I wouldn't consider TERCOM a terminal guidance mode; it's a mid course update to the INS. But I think we get the gist of what he was talking about.

[Colin]

KSA is claiming the weapons used are Iranian Ya Ali cruise missiles which have a range of roughly 700km, which rules out Yemen and leaves Qatar, part of Iraq and most of coastal Iran as the source.

[Stuart Galbraith]

They were talking about the launch site identified as being Iran last night, but with the cruise missiles routed through Iraqi airspace to attack the facility, and avoid any maritime traffic and warships I guess. All the Saudi AD weapon's were pointed south to guard against Yemen, so they never picked them up. Oops.

[Stuart Galbraith]

There are some pictures of the remains of one of the weapon shown here. You will note the similarity with the weapon the Houthi's apparently unveiled some time ago.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9946794/saudi-oil-attack-drone-photo-iran/

 

I get the impression nobody really knows how this was done. Which is frankly just a bit worrying.

Edited September 18, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Roman Alymov]

There are some pictures of the remains of one of the weapon shown here. You will note the similarity with the weapon the Houthi's apparently unveiled some time ago.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9946794/saudi-oil-attack-drone-photo-iran/

 

I get the impression nobody really knows how this was done. Which is frankly just a bit worrying.

Except Designer department girls

Edited September 18, 2019 by Roman Alymov

[Stuart Galbraith]

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it?

[Daan]

A better analysis of the photograph in the Sun article:

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/

[Roman Alymov]

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it?

No, only indicating continuous failures of this type in Russia are not some type of local problem - but part of global trend of loosing professionalism.

[rmgill]

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it?

That it's run by conservatives and that it's non partisan?

[Stuart Galbraith]

 

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it?

That it's run by conservatives and that it's non partisan?

 

 

No, I was pointing out to Roman on another thread they talk a lot of crap, whether leftist or rightist is kinda beside the point.

[Daan]

The KSA held a press conference displaying the remnants of the suicide UAVs and cruise missiles that had been recovered from the attacked sites:

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2019 by Daan

[Daan]

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:

https://twitter.com/arawnsley/status/1174344788050677760

Edited September 18, 2019 by Daan

[Stuart Galbraith]

Looks like 2 different ones used, which is interesting.

[Nobu]

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it?

 

No, it was not, but in defense of it, there appears to be enough of it to ensure a degree of self-policing by it.

 

The designer was probably given 15 minutes and a barely coherent caption written by a photographer to produce it.

[Daan]

Looks like 2 different ones used, which is interesting.

Yeah, cruise missiles and suicide UAVs, which had different targets. The cruise missile seems to be the "Houthi" Quds-1.

 

From the press conference:

[RETAC21]

The UAVs are kind of small to make the trip

[Chris Werb]

The UAVs are kind of small to make the trip

 

Looking at the pic, the UAVs aren't dramatically smaller than the Israeli HAROP which is claimed to have a range of 2000km (there and back) or 1000km (one way).

[glenn239]

All the mechanical failures were with the cruise missiles. Interesting.

[Colin]

I suspect Houthi struggle with Quality Control, particularly as access to coastal areas and ports is not as good as it used to be. They might have used up a significant amount of their strike potentiel.

[Doug97]

"At least four shorter-range defence systems, designed to take out smaller targets, were also present around Abqaiq, according to satellite images. But they were either positioned at the wrong end of the facility or would have seen the tiny drones and missiles too late to shoot them down"

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/19/how-did-attack-breach-saudi-defences-and-what-will-happen-next

 

Do we know what these short-range systems are? Phalanx maybe?

[Josh]

The only short ranged system in KSA service I can turn up on a search is Skyguard 35mm.

 

ETA: Putin laughingly said maybe the KSA needs S400, but what they could probably really use is Pantsir.

Edited September 19, 2019 by Josh

[Yama]

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:

Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:

https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20190917&t=2&i=1430954252&r=LYNXMPEF8G1NS&w=1280

 

Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.