Tanker War Redux

[Stuart Galbraith]

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5388071/mmsi:232010294/imo:9797400/vessel:STENA_IMPERO

[Chris Werb]

So Stuart, the best you can come up with is harassment of Vietnamese fishing vessels vs the hundreds of thousands of lives conflicts we have electively participated in have taken at vast expense on our parr. That's not self flagellation Stuart. It's trying to apply morality and common sense to our foreign policy.

 

Sensibly, we are not getting into an unwinnable naval arms race with China. Why should we? The Japanese aren't sending forces to help contain Russia on our doorstep, are they?. It would also cost us far more to project power there than for Japan to build and maintain it or equivalent deterrent power in situ. Now remind me what % of GDP Japan spends on defence.

[DB]

It's a pity that there are now three topics where Chris and Stuart are fighting the fight of the hopelessly optimistic versus the helplessly pessimistic.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Chris, have you just missed what's happening?

 

You can shoot holes in my arguement as much as you like. Iran has just made an arguement for a British navy of decent capability that is irrefutable. And as America withdraws from the world stage, we are sure to see a lot more of it.

[Stuart Galbraith]

On DB, I take your point. I'm done with the subject. This thread is too important to derail again.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Brian Kennedy]

I actually really value the opinions of both you guys and hope you keep it up, just maybe on one thread.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well it keeps us off the streets I guess....

 

https://news.sky.com/story/fears-over-british-tanker-after-reports-it-entered-iranian-waters-11766673

The Foreign Office is "urgently seeking" further information after Iran claimed to have seized a British-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Owners of the Stena Impero have confirmed the vessel was approached by unidentified small crafts and a helicopter as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz at around 4pm UK time.

 

A statement from the ship's owner and management firm said it was "in international waters".

 

It added: "We are presently unable to contact the vessel which is now heading north towards Iran.

 

"There are 23 seafarers aboard. There have been no reported injuries and their safety is of primary concern to both owners and managers

 

"The priority of both vessel owner Stena Bulk and ship manager Northern Marine Management is the safety and welfare of the crew."

 

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard told state TV they had seized the Stena Impero for "violating international maritime rules".

 

 

Probably wasn't displaying a tax disc.....

[Tim the Tank Nut]

so one tanker in Iranian hands or two?

where were the escort ships?

[Stuart Galbraith]

2,one panamanian, one British.

 

As for escorts, look how busy the place is. Your navy doesn't even have frigates anymore to fulfil the role.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[Stuart Galbraith]

Confused reports on BBC of a possible second British tanker seized.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith

[wendist]

The owners of the ship are Swedish! Even though there is a British flag at the stern of that ship why should the UK act?

[Brian Kennedy]

Lol these Trump quotes are hilarious https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/iran-british-tanker-july-2019/index.html

[Nobu]

The Iranians are showing an ability to establish a naval presence with essentially the equivalent of WW2 PT-boat technology.

 

Impressive and worthy of some respect.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Nobu

[Colin]

Stopped transmitting 4 hrs ago

[Daan]

Iran's naval forces comprise quite a bit more than just the speed boats with which it is harassing and captured unarmed civilian vessels. For the decidedly unimpressive latter task, it could have used nearly any type of ship.

[Colin]

The Iranians are showing an ability to establish a naval presence with essentially the equivalent of WW2 PT-boat technology.

 

Impressive and worthy of some respect.

It's maintaining that presence when the other side starts reacting with more than words

[Anixtu]

Declare open season on IRGCN pirates outside of Iranian TTWs and invite the IRIN out to play.

[Chris Werb]

Likewise.

[JasonJ]

So Stuart, the best you can come up with is harassment of Vietnamese fishing vessels vs the hundreds of thousands of lives conflicts we have electively participated in have taken at vast expense on our parr. That's not self flagellation Stuart. It's trying to apply morality and common sense to our foreign policy.

Sensibly, we are not getting into an unwinnable naval arms race with China. Why should we? The Japanese aren't sending forces to help contain Russia on our doorstep, are they?. It would also cost us far more to project power there than for Japan to build and maintain it or equivalent deterrent power in situ. Now remind me what % of GDP Japan spends on defence.

Going to keep it short because of recent news.

 

Russia is Japan's neighbor too and has island claim dispute with them. Their bombers fly near Japan sovereign territory, once in a awhile, flying into it.

 

Japan's 1% is like typical NATO countries 2%.

 

Japan just changed over to new defense laws 4 years ago. The defense budget is going up.

 

Pressure on Russia in the East would dampen any expansion idea in the west.

[Nobu]

They are certainly causing more problems at sea than their technology level would indicate.

 

It's maintaining that presence when the other side starts reacting with more than words

 

The Iranians may be hoping for such a reaction. An MH17 incident would be a nightmare, and one Tehran might try to orchestrate.

[Dawes]

Where's Jack Bauer and CTU when you need them?

[sunday]

Rule, Irania!
Irania, rule the waves
And Persians never, never, never shall be slaves.
Rule, Irania!
Irania, rule the waves.
And Persians never, never, never shall be slaves.

 

Will Iranian naval supremacy be a fact in the 22nd century?

Edited July 20, 2019 by sunday

[Tim the Tank Nut]

a BBC article on their website seems to say that a military solution is off the table.

Given the transparency of Iran's actions it appears to me that preemptively removing that option is counter productive.

The right solution is to keep cracking down on every economic lever but always keep the military option open.

Perhaps Europe can begin to see Iran for what they really are?

[Colin]

They are certainly causing more problems at sea than their technology level would indicate.

 

It's maintaining that presence when the other side starts reacting with more than words

 

The Iranians may be hoping for such a reaction. An MH17 incident would be a nightmare, and one Tehran might try to orchestrate.

Lot's of Iranian targets to take out without directly attacking Iran, play their game and wipe out one of their proxy groups in Syria.

[Stuart Galbraith]

a BBC article on their website seems to say that a military solution is off the table.

Given the transparency of Iran's actions it appears to me that preemptively removing that option is counter productive.

The right solution is to keep cracking down on every economic lever but always keep the military option open.

Perhaps Europe can begin to see Iran for what they really are?

 

But what options? Due to the clueless actions over the past 20 years, we have successfully removed all the military options that might have worked. Even the QE as we have seen is in a body and fender shop, and we only have 14 combat aircraft for it anyway.

 

From what I heard last night, the tanker is in Bandar Abbas, and like as not, they have removed the crew onshore. So short of landing 3 Commando brigade, we really dont have a lot of options. When it was at sea, there was the potential to land a RM Commando section, but thats passed now. Taking a tanker out of an Iranian port is going to be so difficult i have to doubt even the USN would manage it.

 

Course we could TLAM the tanker in port just to make a point of spite, but I doubt that is going to be very popular.

 

 

 

What would I do? Break off diplomatic relations, and take the embassy staff home. Because the way this is going, its not long before they are going to end up hostages anyway.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Stuart Galbraith