Tanker War Redux

[Colin]

KSA navy brings 11 Frigate/Corvettes and 9 patrol boats to the party (assuming all are operational), not a minor number considering they be based locally. The question would be is how effective they would be and how much risk is KSA willing to accept?

 

The effectiveness of the Saudi Arabian Navy in combat against armed naval opposition could be nil. The danger would be in losing a number of its frigates to the Iranians as prizes of war, inshallah.

 

That game change is for Israel. For the rest of the world, nothing chanbges. Except that the USA builds its foreign policy on a country smaller than any of the half dozen cities. Most importantly, no one wants to lose FLA. So Cuba and Israel are more important than any American city.

 

I may not like that Israel and Israelis have managed to accomplish this, but I also respect that they have actually managed to accomplish this.

Found these links

https://thearabweekly.com/naval-modernisation-crucial-saudis

 

http://www.navalreview.ca/wp-content/uploads/public/vol11num3/vol11num3art7.pdf

 

https://navaltoday.com/tag/royal-saudi-navy/

 

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/75059/Egyptian-naval-units-arrive-in-Arabia-to-participate-in-Red

[Chris Werb]

 

The game changer, as Zuk pointed out some time ago, will be long range rockets with guidance kits.

And it will be interesting to see how terrorist groups will acquire that capability. They already have access to GPS data and sat imagery.

 

States could smuggle loads of bolt-on GPS guidance kits, and terrorists could use Grads to a whole new level of deadliness.

 

No more small packs of drones or highly expensive cruise missiles, but small, cheap, and saturating fires with pinpoint accuracy on tankers and infrastructure from within Houthi territory.

 

 

I was actually thinking from Gaza onto Israel...

[Nobu]

The $20 billion Saudi naval enhancement program is a staggeringly expensive solution to what is essentially a littoral problem for them.

 

There is a disconnect between the amount they are spending and the capability the kingdom could ever hope to reap from it, aka reality.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I KNEW they would buy LCS.

[BansheeOne]

They probably will do for some more time, then release it just to show their power. Same thing they did with the US embassy hostages, holding onto them until Reagan was inaugurated as a final "fuck you" to Carter.

Ayup.

 

Iran says seized Stena Impero oil tanker is 'free to go'

 

By Raf Sanchez and Agence France-Presse

 

23 SEPTEMBER 2019 11:13 AM

 

Iran has said the British-flagged Stena Impero oil tanker is free to leave its waters more than two months after the vessel was seized by Revolutionary Guard forces.

 

"The legal process has finished and based on that the conditions for letting the oil tanker go free have been fulfilled and the oil tanker can move, said Ali Rabiei, a government spokesman.

 

It was not clear when the Stena Impero would actually set sail.

 

The release of the vessel and its crew would mark the end of two-month standoff between the UK and Iran after each seized one of the others oil tankers.

 

The Grace 1 oil tanker, which was seized by Royal Marines on July 4, was released from Gibraltar in August.

 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps surrounded the Stena Impero with attack boats before rappelling onto the deck of the tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on July 19, in an apparent tit-for-tat response.

 

[...]

 

Stena Bulk, the company that owns the tanker, said on Sunday that it expected the vessel to be released soon, but expressed caution about the situation.

 

"We understand that the political decision has been taken to release the ship," Stena Bulk's chief executive Erik Hanell told Swedish television station SVT.

 

We hope it will be able to leave in a few hours, but we don't want to take anything for granted. We want to make sure the ship sails out of Iranian territorial waters," he said.

 

The 23-man crew aboard the Stena Impero was made up 18 Indians, three Russians, a Latvian and a Filipino. No British citizens were onboard.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/23/iran-says-seized-stena-impero-oil-tanker-free-go/

[Stuart Galbraith]

Its not over till the rotund lady vocalizes.

[Chris Werb]

There is a disconnect between the amount they are spending and the capability the kingdom could ever hope to reap from it, aka reality.

 

IoW it's a typical Saudi defence programme.

[Nobu]

The Saudis would and could generate a massively greater amount of soft power by re-directing their hard power expenditures to that effect. Making their funding, and thereby themselves, indispensible to the global hunger and disease eradication relief effort, as well as cancer research, would be well within their capabilities.

 

Iran says seized Stena Impero oil tanker is 'free to go'

 

A little longer than anticipated.

[Chris Werb]

The Saudis would and could generate a massively greater amount of soft power by re-directing their hard power expenditures to that effect. Making their funding, and thereby themselves, indispensible to the global hunger and disease eradication relief effort, as well as cancer research, would be well within their capabilities.

 

 

I have often thought that. Sadly, they would rather purchase another solid gold toilet.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well its on the way back out, so I guess thats over.

https://news.sky.com/story/british-tanker-stena-impero-seized-by-iran-on-the-move-again-11820452

[BansheeOne]

BTW, did the Gibraltar court ever rule on whether the Grace 1 was actually in breach of EU sanctions, or did it just find it a moot point after Iran promised she wouldn't go to Syria anyway? I can't seem to find the full decision online.

[Stuart Galbraith]

I think they just accepted at face value that Iran said she would not go to Syria. Which she hasnt, just.

[Colin]

https://gcaptain.com/united-states-slaps-sanctions-on-cosco-tanker-units/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Gcaptain+%28gCaptain.com%29&goal=0_f50174ef03-e0913730e5-139922301&mc_cid=e0913730e5&mc_eid=c9f44d7f09

[Nobu]

Calm before the storm, which may give Tehran the idea that it has weathered the worst of it.

 

WIth Bolton out, that idea may become reality.

[Stuart Galbraith]

And remarkably, an Iranian tanker is hit by 2 missiles and set afire off Jeddah. Saddam Hussein is unavailable for comment.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7561679/Iran-reports-Explosion-Iran-oil-tanker-Saudi-Arabia.html

[JasonJ]

Oh.. that's in the red sea this one.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Well, there is a lot of water in the world. They need to reflect on the idea that they can dominate the Gulf, but they arent even a bit player in the rest of the worlds oceans, as the Grace 1 fiasco and this one somewhat illustrates.

 

I suppose the most likely culpret is the Saudi's, it would be a nice payback for the attack on the oil refinery. Somewhat ballsy for them though.

[Adam Peter]

They have an ally there with a record of proven capability ...

[Josh]

The UAE is usually the puppet master and the place that handles the more subtle things the KSA is incapable of. MbS has nothing on MbZ.

[Nobu]

Things just got a little more interesting now that the Saudis have realized they can hurt Iran and Iranians on their own. Planning for a return visit to downtown Ploesti may be in the works.

[glenn239]

Could be, but I think the safe money is on a Saudi-Iranian détente. The Saudis were no doubt shocked at the reaction in the progressive West to the murder of Khashoggi, and then shocked again at Trump's reaction to the refinery attack. They'll probably cool down the situation with Iran while building bridges to Russia and China. On a related note, Putin is in the Kingdom seemingly pitching that exact message. For the Iranian part, they're much better off reaching an accomodation with the Saudis than fighting them.

Edited October 15, 2019 by glenn239

[Nobu]

It may be too soon to tell, but it looks as if the Iranians have chalked up the missile attack on its tanker as a face-saving gesture on the part of the Saudis, and are treating it as such.

 

This would indeed represent movement toward de-escalation.

[Stuart Galbraith]

There is nothing they can do about it. Anything they do will make it happen more often.

[Nobu]

That probably is not going to sit well with the Iranians, but it may be a reality they will have to deal with from now on.

 

The question is whether time is on their side or not.

[glenn239]

The question is what the Saudis are going to do. There are signs lately theyv'e lost trust in the USA. CNN here,

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/15/middleeast/putin-syria-russia-middle-east-intl/index.html

 

Putin is in the Kingdom now. We'll see if he gets any arms deals.